Trading the SPX

[Mr_Stochastyk]

[...]
It's like you know the markets should sink further and they rise. Not sure what's changed since yesterday but we are back below 1390 to me which is significant.

I don't know about a bottom to this market but we are going down to 1320 levels to 61.8% retracement imo.

[...]

I agree, that's possible. It's remarkable how quickly they switched to large put position in March option contracts; and, btw. more than 3 bil. in call value has been wiped out. This really surprised me. I'll be watching this bottoming process next week - a bounce to 1420 may be an excellent shorting opportunity.
Have a nice week end,
Andre

 

[Pat494]

I've been away from the screens for most of today but what a week. I feel my loss the other day could have been avoided if I stuck with my position and rode out the volatility swings. Makes the pain of losing money worse because it's something that could have been avoided. To compensate I now have to dish out more money on my shrink

Sorry to see you got caught and lost some dosh. Me too. Most unusually for me I put on a stop on Wednesday . The close price was barely a loss !!
Violent volatility is murderous on stops. I think I will revert back to my old system of ONLY trailing stops ( locking in a bit of profit ).

 

[Buy The Dips]

I've been away from the screens for most of today but what a week.

Sure was.....so far the Martin Armstrong cycle has nailed the top of Feb 26 .

I'm turning 200% bearish after March 12th

BIG TIME CRASH AHEAD IS NEAR CERTAINTY
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=17573714

 

[Mr_Stochastyk]

Not finished yet

Looks like we may reach 1360-1365 area today.
The market moves faster than I thought. It's amazing how quickly they switched from huge call positions into put positions. But, still, I wouldn't call this a crash. "The markets worked well" - in Bernanke;s own words...

good trades,
Andre

 

[Atilla]

Looks like we may reach 1360-1365 area today.
The market moves faster than I thought. It's amazing how quickly they switched from huge call positions into put positions. But, still, I wouldn't call this a crash. "The markets worked well" - in Bernanke;s own words...

good trades,
Andre

I think today we might attempt to go up to 1390 but not brake through it.

I don't feel people are convinced we've seen the end of this correction and who wants to wait. Sell and take your profits and watch would be my advice.

Also notice how people are now discussing Crash or Correction, Crash or Correction...

Let's think about this one...

I'd say let's think crash once we've got the correction over and done with.

Much better day today. Contemplating taking profits. Moved to a trailing SL now incase we have a bounce. Still very much bearish.

 

[Bez]

The SPX should be down till either very late tonight or first thing tomorrow..

I'll be surprised if they don't hammer the ISM at 3pm (10est)...The intraday says low just before lunch then chop up over lunch, then down again for the afternoon trade..

 

[Mr_Stochastyk]

I think today we might attempt to go up to 1390 but not brake through it.
[..]

yes, they sold off before the opening, look a bit stronger now...

good trades,
Andre

 

[Atilla]

The SPX should be down till either very late tonight or first thing tomorrow..

I'll be surprised if they don't hammer the ISM at 3pm (10est)...The intraday says low just before lunch then chop up over lunch, then down again for the afternoon trade..

Another spot on prediction.

Apparently there was a big computer generated trades towards the closing hour.

However, the lower top at 7pm GMT and then the price and MA crossovers were a sure tell tale sign coupled with the brake out from the BBands for me.

I was watching out for your intraday delta predictions and they were sure confirmations.

Fairly quite on these boards today though. I hope everyone is well and it's not the Monday blues or something...

Regards to everyone...

 

[Bez]

Thanks Atilla...

For those that follow delta, the 6th of March is the first time point that the Intermediate (low) point can come in with a lower frame of delta. (Standard delta rules, a higher frame must come in with a lower frame.)

So tomorrow morning could be interesting...:?:

 

[nkruger]

However, the lower top at 7pm GMT and then the price and MA crossovers were a sure tell tale sign coupled with the brake out from the BBands for me.

Good morning, what time MA's do you use, and what timeframe on your charts ?

Thanks in anticipation - NK

 

[Hook Shot]

Thanks Atilla...

For those that follow delta, the 6th of March is the first time point that the Intermediate (low) point can come in with a lower frame of delta. (Standard delta rules, a higher frame must come in with a lower frame.)

So tomorrow morning could be interesting...:?:

Very interesting considering the big rally on sp futs overnight plus strength in asia....
will take a big pbk to get another low today ? but I'll take it if/when it comes :cheesy:

Great work Bez
HS

 

[Atilla]

Good morning, what time MA's do you use, and what timeframe on your charts ?

Thanks in anticipation - NK

Hi NKruger,

You can use more or less any time frame for the charts the brakeout principals remain the same. I used to leave trades open for days but as the markets become very volatile I've changed to using very short time charts and closing positions overnight.

If you look at the 10m charts for the 5th yesterday, until 13:00 the BolingerBands narrowed and was moving sideward.

First green arrow shows price braking the MA10 & 20 lines. Also the MA lines also crossover. However, these are only indications. Because it's moving sideways and choppy best not to enter trade.

Second green arrow shows a retrace back to previous upper BBand around 14:20 and then for 14:30 the full brakeout making a higher high. Both MAs moving up and price is on the right side of the move. MACD and RSI also confirm the direction of the price move.

You have the first top around 16:30. It's a little risky then on as the BB are too wide apart although price and MA crossover.

As Bez indicated "The intraday says low just before lunch then chop up over lunch, then down again for the afternoon trade" the price did move up after lunch. 7pm here is 2pm in NY. Having made a 2nd lower top the price beautifully glided down to 1368.

When the charts work like this and you can watch your predictions it is a joy.

If you wanted to use the BB brakeout again, you can see the wider BBands coming off the 2nd lower top and MAs crossing with the price at the first red arrow. The 2nd red arrow once again tries to retrace up but fails and then the big move down after 1379 shown in purple. So you could short after 1378 if you wanted to confirm. Once again MAs moving down and the price is on the correct side of your MAs.

If you wanted to take profiits I would normally start to worry when the MA10 starts flattening and price crosses it.

On bigger time frames I watch for Fib retracements and place trailing stops loss beyond the 23% possibly around 26 or 27%.

Very text book based but easy to understand and use really. Watch out for false brakeouts and whipsaws. If brakeout is false don't hang about hoping just close position.

I hope it helps and good luck.

 

[nkruger]

Hi NKruger,



I hope it helps and good luck.

Thanks Atilla - yes, very informative. I have set my Dow chart up this morning as you've detailed, but I shall also follow the S&P.

NK

 

[Atilla]

Thanks Atilla - yes, very informative. I have set my Dow chart up this morning as you've detailed, but I shall also follow the S&P.

NK

These technicals should work for any instrument as it's simply applying text book Technical Analysis to a price curve.

The trick is to watch the BBs narrow and watch for the brakeout. Lot's of tea and patients.

Might be worth having a test ran as if without placing any money to gauge it's value.

Regards,

 

[nkruger]

The trick is to watch the BBs narrow and watch for the brakeout.



Regards,

Yes, you're correct about the break-out, I've noticed that before. Good one on the Dow 3 min chart this morning. A narrow 10 point band for an hour up to 10.45am and then a break out upwards at 12124, now at 12151 at 11.12am. Happy days

NK

 

[Atilla]

Yes, you're correct about the break-out, I've noticed that before. Good one on the Dow 3 min chart this morning. A narrow 10 point band for an hour up to 10.45am and then a break out upwards at 12124, now at 12151 at 11.12am. Happy days

NK

Definately a text book brakeout. Good one. On the 3min at 10:54 there is a retrace to the 12127 and then off it goes. MACD and RSI on the up confirming the move with the MAs in the right direction and nicely apart.

The taking profits and how long to let it run is usually a problem - a nice little problem. I usually watch the MACD graph begin to drop along with RSI turn. Or if you can hold your nerve and you have enough gains to wait for the MA10 to start flattening out.

Other times you can use Fib retrace as 21% is normal but if price drops below 25% or more from it's post high might be time to sell half or all your gains. I'm sure everyone has their little system and preferences but these are mine.

 

[Atilla]

Looks like a sideward move today. I think Fed Reserve Survey is likely to be significant.

I'm neutral on the direction today. I suspect another attempt at 1390-1400 before further falls.

 

[Atilla]

Looks like a sideward move today. I think Fed Reserve Survey is likely to be significant.

I'm neutral on the direction today. I suspect another attempt at 1390-1400 before further falls.

Well I don't know what is happening to the markets but I think of it like one of those Hollywood gun movies. You know where everyone has their guns out and pointing at everyone else and nobody has a clue as to what's going on. They feel they should have control with their tools in their hands but they don't as everybody else has the same tool so they point at each other and sweat buckets, clenching their rear ends as tight as they can. Eyes moving from one to the other looking for a sign.

We all know what the outcome is don't we?

One guy called Bernanke - top chief, talks sense and they all put their guns away. Slowly. Very very slowly. All the crooks and cops pretend to be buddies again - at least for a short while.

But hell no, there happens to be big old chief Greenspan in the crowd and he wants to maintain a little more of the action and he uncocks his gun and the click sets off all the chicken sh1ts and BOOM BANG BANG KABOOSH RATTATTATAAAA RATTATTAAAA so all hell sets loose with guns blazing.

I think the above scenario will play out. The SPX has hovered around 1390-1400 and not much has happened. Even these blogs are quiet. I think this is a bad sign.

I can't see any conviction in this market and with the falls all these recommendations about buy on weakness are tall tales. Nobody is buying the story. Everyone was talking about correction and somehow this was it. Eeery silence as people take the events in.

Don't know about you guys but I'm cocking my beretta

Watching, Listening and Waiting... Who ever said these three little words was so right...

 

[Bez]

Today (7th) was a very powerful fib time day, it could well of been a hit for a lesser delta frame high.
If if starts to take out 1390 then warning signs flash up that the Intermediate low point is not in and were down till the 12th..

 

[Mr_Stochastyk]

Correction

There is a possibility that the bull market is over and that we've actually seen the top.
If this is true, I think that we'll need a crazy short squeeze ride to the 1450-1470 area to confirm the top..and then we'll see the big boyz betting tens of milions $ in April/May/June put contracts with NDX, SPX p/c ratios going through the roof ...

good luck in your trades,

Andre