Trading the E-mini

[DionysusToast]

So part of me was surprised today at losing, in part because:

a) It had opened so far away from the gap close & S/R that the chances of it being pulled back seemed small

b) Delta was about -35k on open which is a big bias at open

c) The prevailing trend had been downwards

All 3 things gave me a short bias and any hint of weakness was taken as a sign of getting in. However it was not to be and had I followed the price action with a greater degree of impartiality, a long position would have been in order by minute 9 of the session.

This is just a reminder more than anything else that you should trade what you see and not what you think.

The probability of a gap close today is 35% according to FT71.

Rob - are you actually being serious here?

You have a single losing trade, the first for 20 days (admittedly not all days you traded) - and you want to dissect it? You need to find an excuse as to why you failed?

How about "thought the market was going to do this but instead it did something else"?

Ain't healthy bro...

 

[robster970]

I don't mind pulling trades apart these days because I don't internalise the loss any more. It's just down to honing the reading. I do appreciate the concern though Pedro - you know I would be lying if I said it didn't cause problems in the past. It's a lot better these days and has come hand in hand with better trade selection which is why I trade less frequently too.

I'll pull the winners apart too if you like

mwah, mwah...

 

[DionysusToast]

28th March - end of the week

A pictures worth a thousand words....

Holiday tomorrow. We've been edging up to the high with shallower pullbacks and I guess I'm not the only one with my eyes on that....

Last week Range 1531.75 -> 1560.50
Last weeks Value 1539.50 -> 1552.00

Yesterdays Range 1545.85 -> 1558.25
Yesterdays Value 1551.50 -> 1558
Globex Range 1549.75 -> 1559

Basically, we are rotating around the same area so looking to play off prior highs/lows/value area on the open.

 

[robster970]

Just to throw in my twopenneth:

a) Today's VPOC for the overnight session is bang on 58.25 - keeping an eye out on whether it drives upwards from the open

b) Will be careful taking a short off the 58/60 area - even though it is looking weak right now, I expect RTH to test this again before it decides to do a sell-off

 

[DionysusToast]

Interesting - I took a short from 58.50 and was out by 55.50 - after seeing it go down to 54.50.

Seems like the employment, GDP, PMI is mostly bad news but not really able to do much damage to the downside.

I'm not a TA guy but that triangle/wedge/flag whatever it is does seem to make you think upside is more likely. Not sure what to do right now, I'm inclined to let it play out and then make a move.

Very odd.

 

[robster970]

That was a nice short Pedro.

Am sat on the sidelines too - even though the TA says up, it feels pretty weak up here if you ask me.

 

[robster970]

I might grab a short if it tries for the high again and fails - should test the other side of the range as a minimum.

Going to get a coffee.

 

[DionysusToast]

I might grab a short if it tries for the high again and fails - should test the other side of the range as a minimum.

Going to get a coffee.

I'm hoping for a push through and then possibly a short. I think the short before the number breaks is a bit too ripe for manipulation for me to have a shot.

 

[robster970]

Jesus, that took it's time....

Entry Time Symbol Status Buy/Sell Average Fill Price
28/03/2013 15:01 ES-201306-CME Filled Sell 1561.5
28/03/2013 16:30 ES-201306-CME Filled Buy 1559

 

[DionysusToast]

Jesus, that took it's time....

Entry Time Symbol Status Buy/Sell Average Fill Price
28/03/2013 15:01 ES-201306-CME Filled Sell 1561.5
28/03/2013 16:30 ES-201306-CME Filled Buy 1559

Bloody hell - that's a swing trade for you....

Nicely done. :clap:

 

[cablemonster]

Jesus, that took it's time....

Entry Time Symbol Status Buy/Sell Average Fill Price
28/03/2013 15:01 ES-201306-CME Filled Sell 1561.5
28/03/2013 16:30 ES-201306-CME Filled Buy 1559

your doing well in this cage lolol.

 

[robster970]

Bloody hell - that's a swing trade for you....

Nicely done. :clap:

I was a little gung-ho getting into that one really, should have waited for the re-test about half hour later. Once it looked like it was a solid rejection it was just a case of seeing how far down it would go. I knew it would push past 59.50 but was not sure how much further it would go. Buyers stepped in just above 58 so I thought I would cut and run as it was telling me that buying in the lower value area was present.

Anyway, had to sweat for that one

 

[robster970]

your doing well in this cage lolol.

Alright in the cage IMO. I don't think it is terribly informative for newbie's or Joe but if you've been around it's pretty evident what Pedro and I are doing.

Kind of tepid at the moment, not hot but not cold either.

The above trade, you could have traded off the 30min - just me making a meal of it.

 

[robster970]

Haven't got out of my pyjamas today....

 

[robster970]

Just out of curiosity, would people find it interesting/useful if I put up some narrative of what was going on (for me) during the trade - I used to do it in the old thread, example here - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/ind...r-indexes-intraday-plus-chat.html#post1815552

One final point re: Sierra DOM vs x_trader DOM. I really noticed how sluggish the Sierra DOM can be today when price drove from about 59 to 62 today shortly before 15:00 GMT - it took the Sierra DOM some time to catch up with what was going on. On x_trader it would have probably have kept up quite nicely. I can see Sierra can be limited in a fast moving market. Ironically the charting kept up the pace.....

Anyway, happy easter folks, see you next Tuesday.

 

[T44]

Not many posting, prob plenty watching!!

Rob, thanks for the link to that trade last year wasn't entirely sure what you guys were doing. You said earlier in this thread you were paying more attention/giving more weight to the chart does this mean less weight on T&S or the DOM.

Also haven't quite worked out what you're doing with the cumlative Delta bars.

Didn't trade today, but looking at my charts, pretty sure i'd have taken the 1130 ish entry, not so sure I'd have got as good an exit as you. So please could you sum up the elements that went into your exit.....many thanks!

Excellent trading btw, hope it was a 50 lot:cheesy:

 

[DionysusToast]

Just out of curiosity, would people find it interesting/useful if I put up some narrative of what was going on (for me) during the trade - I used to do it in the old thread, example here - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/ind...r-indexes-intraday-plus-chat.html#post1815552

One final point re: Sierra DOM vs x_trader DOM. I really noticed how sluggish the Sierra DOM can be today when price drove from about 59 to 62 today shortly before 15:00 GMT - it took the Sierra DOM some time to catch up with what was going on. On x_trader it would have probably have kept up quite nicely. I can see Sierra can be limited in a fast moving market. Ironically the charting kept up the pace.....

Anyway, happy easter folks, see you next Tuesday.

Which data feed are you using?

 

[robster970]

Which data feed are you using?

TT gateway via TT FIX into Sierra.

 

[robster970]

Rob, thanks for the link to that trade last year wasn't entirely sure what you guys were doing. You said earlier in this thread you were paying more attention/giving more weight to the chart does this mean less weight on T&S or the DOM.

Also haven't quite worked out what you're doing with the cumlative Delta bars.

So last year I was definitely in the camp of only taking very short term trades/moves, primarily because I felt uncomfortable holding for longer periods. This is how I had traded for a couple of years. It was in part because I 'felt' better with a higher win rate and also because my market understanding had not really developed much outside of the opening 90mins of the US session. In order to trade like this I was primarily looking at DOM and T&S as the main sources of information to govern entry, mgmt and exit.

Since then, I have lightened up a little regarding losers (although Pedro would claim this not to be the case) and I trade off higher TF's which inevitably means longer hold periods. The DOM & T&S still form an important source of information (as does delta) to determine what I should do but the focus has now shifted from DOM/T&S to a more holistic view of what is going on.

Having looked back at the last month, there were 4 kinds of trade that I took of about 7-8 which I have in my repertoire. What I will do is document the set-up in quite some detail to give an indication of what, how and why I am doing what I am doing when we come across the scenario.

 

[T44]

Ok great thanks I'll watch with interest.

On a slightly different subject are you now entering your orders through Sierra, if so which of the DOM s are you using?

Cheers