Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Current Dynamics
10/06/2019
US stocks indices rose from the opening of today after last Friday they ended the week as one of the best weeks in the last 6 months. DJIA added 4.7%, S&P500 - 4.4%, and Nasdaq - 3.9%.
The heightened expectations of the Fed's policy easing led to an increase in US stock indices, which continued to recover from a sharp drop last month amid growing risks of escalating international trade wars.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last Tuesday that the Fed "will act according to the need to maintain growth". The worsening economic outlook strengthens the pressure on the Fed leadership towards easing monetary policy, which leads to an increase in US stock indices.
At the beginning of the European session, S&P500 futures traded near the 2884.0 mark, above the important short-term support level of 2840.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Above key support levels of 2810.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0), 2800.0 (EMA144), 2781.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the bullish trend prevails.
The signal for the resumption of sales will be the return of the S&P500 to the zone below the support level of 2840.0. After the breakdown of the key support level of 2781.0, the targets for further reduction of the S&P500 will be the support levels of 2720.0 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 2645.0 (Fibonacci 50%), 2510.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 2858.0, 2840.0, 2810.0, 2800.0, 2781.0, 2720.0, 2645.0, 2573.0, 2507.0
Resistance Levels: 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 2856.0. Stop Loss 2910.0. Objectives 2840.0, 2810.0, 2800.0, 2781.0, 2720.0, 2645.0, 2573.0, 2507.0
Buy Stop 2910.0. Stop Loss 2856.0. Objectives 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
11/06/2019
Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. This is the first rate reduction since 2016.
Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, said that the key rate will be reduced to 1% by the end of this year. "The likelihood of lowering interest rates is still not excluded", said Lowe, hinting at the possibility of a further reduction in interest rates. This is a strong negative fundamental factor for the Australian dollar, which continues to decline in the foreign exchange market.
RBA leaders called increased uncertainty in world trade a risk to the Australian economy. By lowering the interest rate, the RBA is trying to accelerate GDP growth, reduce unemployment to 5%, and accelerate inflation.
Meanwhile, the situation in global financial markets is gradually calming down after last Friday Donald Trump tweeted that the imposition of duties on goods from Mexico has been canceled, so far.
Investors are gradually emerging from defensive assets, acquiring more profitable, but also more risky assets of the stock market. The demand for the dollar is also growing, despite expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates.
At the beginning of the European session, the DXY dollar index futures traded near the 96.72 mark, 14 points higher than the opening price of the current week, and the AUD / USD pair - near the 0.6955 mark.
Now investors will follow the publication on Thursday (01:30 GMT) data from the Australian labor market. If they turn out to be worse than the forecast or weaker than the previous values, then AUD will accelerate the decline. A positive report on the labor market will support AUD.
AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend.
Below the key resistance levels of 0.7085 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7140 (EMA200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.6974 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 0.6962 (ЕМА200 on 1-hour chart) speaks in favor of further reducing AUD / USD with reduction targets located at support levels of 0.6900, 0.6830 (2016 lows), 0.6770.
Support Levels: 0.6900, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Resistance Levels: 0.6962, 0.6974, 0.7000, 0.7085, 0.7140

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7025. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Buy Stop 0.7025. Stop Loss 0.6940. Take-Profit 0.7085, 0.7140

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
13/06/2019
EUR / USD failed to develop an upward correction above the resistance level of 1.1310 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
On Wednesday, EUR / USD resumed its decline after the publication at the beginning of the American session of positive macro statistics from the United States, indicating a modest, but still rising inflation in the United States.
As the US Department of Labor reported on Wednesday, consumer prices in May increased compared to April, but less significantly than expected (in annual terms, +1.8% against the forecast of +1.9% and +2.0% in April). The base consumer price index, which does not take into account food and energy, rose by 2% compared with May 2018, compared with the expected growth of 2.1%.
Next week, the Fed decides on rates. Published statistics are unlikely to give the Fed a reason to lower rates, although it may signal a decrease in rates in the second half of this year.
Meanwhile, EUR / USD has remained in the global downtrend since May 2014.
At the beginning of the European session on Thursday, EUR / USD is trading near support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1278 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Breakdown of these support levels will accelerate the EUR / USD decline towards annual lows near the support level of 1.1125.
Negative dynamics prevails; short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.1285, 1.1278, 1.1232, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1310, 1.1365

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1270. Stop-Loss 1.1320. Take-Profit 1.1232, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1320. Stop Loss 1.1270. Take-Profit 1.1365

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: Current Dynamics
14/06/2019
Despite the rise on Thursday, during the Asian session on Friday, oil prices again resumed their decline. Investors are concerned about weakening demand and increasing oversupply in the United States. Last Tuesday, in the monthly report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for oil demand growth to 1.2 million barrels per day, or 15% from the previous month, due to concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth.
The trade conflict between the US and China, the threat to the growth of the world economy and oil demand, as well as the growth of US oil reserves (oil reserves in the country rose to 485 million barrels, the maximum since July 2017) contribute to the increase in the negative trend in the oil market.
Participants in the oil market also believe that the situation with the attack on tankers could be another geopolitical fear.
If a deal to reduce oil production by OPEC + (OPEC meeting is scheduled for the end of June) is not extended, the fall in oil prices may accelerate.
On Friday at 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes will present a weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. At the moment, their number is 789 units.
If the report indicates an increase in the number of such installations, this may give an additional negative impetus to prices.

At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is quoted at $52.00 per barrel, below the important resistance levels of 59.50 (50% Fibonacci level), 59.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 56.85 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the level of support near the 42.15 mark).
Mostly negative dynamics. Long-term targets are located near the 42.15 mark (lows of December 2018). Relevant short positions.
Support Levels: 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 53.25, 55.40, 56.85, 59.00, 59.50

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 53.50. Take-Profit 50.30, 49.00, 43.00
Buy Stop 53.50. Stop Loss 51.50. Take-Profit 55.40, 56.85, 59.00, 59.50

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
17/06/2019
Negative momentum continues to dominate the pound. Domestic political risks are added to weak macro statistics after Theresa May’s resignation from the post of prime minister and against the background of increasing likelihood of a hard Brexit. On Tuesday, the second round of voting for the candidacy of the new head of the Conservatives will take place. A favorite among 6 candidates is Boris Johnson.
The pound will also be pressured by the risk of early elections in the UK, which may take place in December.
And this week, investors will follow the meeting of the Bank of England. On Thursday (11:00 GMT) the decision of the Bank of England on the rate will be published. Probably, the rate will remain unchanged, at the level of 0.75%. However, volatility may rise sharply in the foreign exchange market if unexpected statements are made by the management of the Bank of England. Signals in favor of tightening monetary policy, which, however, is unlikely in the current situation, will cause a sharp short-term strengthening of the pound.
However, below the key resistance levels of 1.2970 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200) long-term negative dynamics prevail.
Still, short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2480
Resistance Levels: 1.2600, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2620. Take-Profit 1.2480
Buy Stop 1.2620. Stop Loss 1.25800. Take-Profit 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
06/18/2019
As follows from the minutes published on Tuesday (01:30 GMT) from the meeting of the RBA, held on June 4, the bank's management signaled a tendency to further easing of monetary policy. Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, stated that "there is reason to expect a lower key rate". According to the leaders of the central bank, unemployment should fall from the current level of 5.2% to 4.5% in order for inflation to accelerate to the target range of 2% -3%.
Many economists predict two or more rate cuts this year and a key rate reaching a record minimum of 0.75%.
This is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further weakening AUD.
Meanwhile, the attention of financial market participants is shifted to the 2-day Fed meeting, which will end on Wednesday with the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the interest rate decision. Probably, the rate will remain at the same level of 2.5%. However, signals from the leadership of the Fed in favor of lowering the rate by the end of this year will put downward pressure on the dollar. At the same time, the demand for the US dollar is likely to save.
The US economy looks more resilient in international trade conflicts.
AUD / USD continues to decline, remaining in a long-term bearish trend since July 2014. The lows of the last wave of decline are located near the mark of 0.6830. A strong negative impulse prevails in anticipation of a further reduction in the RBA interest rate. The immediate goal of the decline is located at around 0.6770 (2019 lows).
Below the key resistance levels of 0.7070 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7125 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Resistance Levels: 0.6865, 0.6910, 0.6955, 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7070, 0.7125

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6880. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Buy Stop 0.6880. Stop Loss 0.6820. Take-Profit 0.6910, 0.6955, 0.6980, 0.7000

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
19/06/2019
Since May 2014, EUR / USD remains in the global downtrend. At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, EUR / USD is trading near the 1.1200 mark, below resistance levels 1.1230 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1243 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The focus of traders on Wednesday is the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the Fed decision on rates. It is expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 2.5%. Nevertheless, many financial market participants are waiting for signals from the Fed about the possibility of lowering the rate.
At 18:30 (GMT), the Fed’s press conference will begin. Market participants will analyze the statements of the Fed Chairman to understand how likely a decrease in the rate is in July. The soft tone of the statement and press conference or direct signals aimed at easing monetary policy will cause an increase in stock indices and a fall in the dollar, including against the euro.
The soft monetary policy of the central bank usually contributes to the cheapening of the national currency.
In the current situation, technical analysis fades into the background. Probably the most cautious investors would prefer to stay out of the market during this time period.
Breakdown of the local support level of 1.1180 will accelerate the EUR / USD decline towards annual lows near the support level of 1.1125.
If the Fed announces a rate cut, at least later this year, the dollar will decline and the EUR / USD pair will go towards resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.13050 (EMA144 on the daily chart). Below these levels, negative dynamics prevail; short positions still look better.
Support Levels: 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1230, 1.1243, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1355

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1170. Stop Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1250. Stop Loss 1.1170. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1355

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/JPY: Current Situation
20/06/2019
USD / JPY resumed its decline after the Fed meeting ended on Wednesday. As you know, on Wednesday, the Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that "the committee (FOMC) wants a clearer picture of the economic situation". At the same time, Powell also said that "the arguments in favor of additional policy easing were strengthened". This statement was considered by investors as a signal to the Fed rate cut soon, and the dollar fell on sales.
On Thursday, the management of the Bank of Japan decided to leave the target level of yield on 10-year Japanese bonds around zero, and the short-term deposit rate at -0.1%.
At the same time, the bank promised to maintain the current extra-soft monetary policy at least until the spring of 2020.
However, this did not prevent further decline of the USD / JPY pair.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 107.00, the targets for further decline will be the support levels of 106.50 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the pair’s fall correction from the level of 125.65 that began in June 2015), 104.70 (2018 lows).
A strong negative dynamic prevails. Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00, 104.70
Resistance Levels: 108.35, 108.80, 109.15, 109.70, 110.15, 110.50

Trading scenarios
Buy Stop 108.40. Stop Loss 107.40. Take-Profit 108.80, 109.15, 109.70, 110.15, 110.50
Sell Stop 107.40. Stop Loss 108.40. Take-Profit 107.00, 106.50, 105.00, 104.70

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: price increase is corrective in nature
06/21/2019
Current Dynamics
Since the opening of today's trading day, WTI crude oil has been trading in a narrow range near the mark of 57.00 dollars per barrel. One of 3 key resistance levels (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) passes through this mark. Below this level and resistance levels of 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the support level near the 42.15 mark), 59.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) is dominated by a long-term negative dynamic.
The current increase in the price of oil, which is observed this week, so far can be described as corrective, provoked by a number of fundamental factors.
This is the growth of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as the weakening of the dollar, occurring against the backdrop of the Fed's statements about the increased likelihood of monetary easing. After last week two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, on Thursday, US officials reported a missile attack on a desalination plant in Saudi Arabia, which was allegedly inflicted from Yemen. Later, the Islamic Revolutionary Corps announced that it had shot down an American reconnaissance drone over Iranian territory. The United States on Thursday announced preparations for a retaliatory strike on Iran.
Earlier, the Iranian authorities have repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, if US sanctions against Iran are not lifted.
The increased risk of oil supply disruptions from the Middle East, coupled with a weaker dollar, led to a sharp rise in oil prices this week.
On Friday, oil market participants will follow the publication at 17:00 (GMT) of a weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States from the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations (788 units at the moment), this may give an additional positive impetus to prices.
Nevertheless, it is premature to consider price growth above key resistance levels 59.00, 59.50.
Below these resistance levels, a long-term bearish trend prevails.

Trading recommendations
At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is priced at $ 57.00 per barrel, below the important resistance levels of 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the past few years near 76.80 to the support near 42.15), 59.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of support levels of 56.40 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) with long-term goals located near the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci 0% and lows of December 2018).
Support Levels: 56.40, 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 57.00, 59.00, 59.50

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 55.30. Stop Loss 57.80. Take-Profit 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 57.80. Stop Loss 55.30. Take-Profit 59.00, 59.50

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
06/24/2019
The dollar continued to decline in the first half of the trading day on Monday. At the beginning of the US session, the DXY dollar index futures, reflecting the value of the dollar to a basket of 6 major currencies, is trading near the 95.62 mark, 10 points lower than the closing price last Friday. The weekly drop in the index was the strongest since February 2018. The main driver of the dollar decline in the current situation is the expectation of a Fed rate cut soon.
Against the background of a falling dollar, the EUR / USD pair is rising after the pair reached a 3-month high on Friday near the 1.1377 mark. At the beginning of the American session, EUR / USD is trading near the 1.1390 mark after the publication (08:00 GMT) of the IFO indices for Germany, which showed that the European economy is still far away from the recovery.
EUR / USD broke through on Friday the key resistance level of 1.1355 and continues to grow towards the 1.1400 mark. The long-term goal of growth is the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
However, near the level of 1.1400 possible rebound.
In the case of a return to the zone below the level of 1.1355, short positions will again become relevant.
The breakdown of support levels of 1.1305 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) will confirm the return of EUR / USD to the global bearish trend.
Support Levels: 1.1355, 1.1305, 1.1285, 1.1243, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1415. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1285, 1.1243, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1415. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1510, 1.1600

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
06/25/2019
NZD / USD is trying to develop an upward trend caused by the weakening of the USD. On Monday, US President Donald Trump resumed criticism of the Fed’s monetary policy actions, tweeting that "they are like a stubborn child, while we need lower rates and a softer policy to compensate for other countries’ actions against us".
Combined with Trump’s criticism, the soft rhetoric of the Fed’s leadership, and amid weak macro statistics recently coming in from the US, the US dollar has dropped significantly in the foreign exchange market. The DXY dollar index fell 1.85% last week to 95.72. The weekly drop in the index was the strongest since February 2018.
Nevertheless, the current growth of NZD / USD is more like an upward correction, rather than replacing the global downtrend with an uptrend.
Below the key resistance level of 0.6720 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) a long-term bearish trend prevails, starting at 0.8820 in July 2014. In view of this, a rebound is possible from the resistance levels of 0.6685, 0.6720.
The return of NZD / USD to the zone below support level 0.6605 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will be a signal to resume sales with targets at support levels 0.6430 (2018 lows), 0.6260 (Fibonacci level 0% and lows of the global decline wave from 0.8820, which started in July 2014).
Support Levels: 0.6605, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6685, 0.6720, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6920

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
06/26/2019
The market has lowered its expectations regarding the Fed’s soon monetary easing.
Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that "the central bank should not react too sharply to any economic data or short-term changes in sentiment, as this will increase the uncertainty around the outlook for the economy".
From the news for today we are waiting for the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of a block of important macro statistics from the US, which should support the dollar.
The dollar is gradually recovering previously lost positions, and the EUR / USD pair is attempting to return to the zone below 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) key level, which will mean the recovery of the long-term bearish trend of EUR / USD.
The breakthrough of the short-term support level of 1.1317 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of sales with targets at the support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1180 (minimum June), 1.1125 (minimum of a year).
An alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.1410 and further growth of EUR / USD, and the long-term growth target will be the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.1355, 1.1317, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1410, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1415. Take-Profit 1.1317, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1415. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1510, 1.1600

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: Current Dynamics
06/27/2019
The oil market has a very controversial situation. The growth of geopolitical tensions associated with the situation in the Gulf of Oman, and the threat of interruptions in the supply of oil from this region are pushing prices up. The two-week rally, which began in the middle of the month from a level near the mark of 50.50 dollars per barrel of WTI oil, is happening against this background. On Wednesday, the US Department of Energy published regular weekly data indicating a significant decline in oil reserves in the country (-12.788 million barrels to 470 million barrels). This gave additional upward momentum to oil prices, which allowed them to grow to key levels of 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the past few years near 76.80 to support near 42.15), 59.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
At the same time, further growth is constrained by the risks of a slowdown in the global economy and oil consumption.
As expected, at the G20 summit this weekend will meet US President Trump and DPRK President Xi Jinping. Many experts believe that they will not be able to make progress in the negotiations to achieve a trade truce. Negative news from the G20 summit and
concerns about global economic growth may lead to a resumption of lower prices.
On Thursday, WTI crude oil traded near resistance levels of 59.50, 59.00. Below these levels short positions will become relevant again. Only a breakthrough to the zone above the local resistance level of 60.90 will confirm the revival of the bullish trend, and the price will head towards the annual highs near the 66.00 dollars mark. Long-term goals of decline are located at the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and minimums of December 2018).
Support levels: 56.80, 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 59.00, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 57.50. Stop Loss 60.10. Take-Profit 56.80, 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 60.10. Stop Loss 57.50. Take-Profit 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: pending new drivers
28/06/2019
Eurodollar rose at the beginning of the European session on Friday. According to the data presented, consumer price indices (CPI) in Italy and France rose in June and were better than forecast. The core consumer price index published at 09:00 (GMT) also showed an increase in consumer inflation in the Eurozone (+1.1% in annual terms, against the forecast of +1.0% and against +0.8% in May).
After the publication of data, EUR / USD rose by 30 points, to the level of 1.1392. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation and an indicator of changes in consumer trends. The high value, as well as the growth of the rate is a positive factor for EUR.
However, EUR / USD was not able to develop an upward trend above 1.1392. Inflation in the Eurozone is still at extremely low levels, well below the target level of the ECB, set at just below 2.0%. Eurozone's core consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% in June compared with the same period last year, after a 1.2% increase in May. This is a negative factor for the euro. It is possible that the ECB, at a meeting on July 25, will take additional measures to stimulate the economy.
On Friday, investor attention will be focused on the G-20 leaders meeting in Osaka. Investors are waiting for a shift in the trade confrontation between the United States and China towards a new trade agreement. Probably, trading in financial markets in anticipation of the outcome of the meeting will be held in the range.
If the meeting of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which is scheduled for Saturday, ends in nothing, then most likely the global stock indexes will react with a fall, and the demand for defensive assets will rise again. Then the Fed will be forced yet to begin easing monetary policy, which will cause a further weakening of the dollar.
Meanwhile, EUR / USD spent the current week in the range between the local resistance level of 1.1410 and the support level of 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The signal for movement in one direction or another will be the breakdown of one of the range boundaries (levels 1.1410, 1.1355).
The reduction targets are located at support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1275 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of the year); growth targets - at the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.1355, 1.1285, 1.1275, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1410, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
01/07/2019
As part of the G20 summit held in Osaka last Sunday, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to suspend a trade war between these countries. The United States will indefinitely postpone the introduction of duties on Chinese goods worth about $ 300 billion, while China promised to start buying large amounts of agricultural products in the United States.
Investors are inspired by the outcome of the G20 summit in Osaka, which ended last weekend, and global stock indices once again rushed up.
The dollar also rose from the opening of today's trading day, and the AUD / USD pair has dropped sharply, despite the very successful start of the trading day.
According to Caixin, in June, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in China fell to 49.4 from 50.2 in May. The indicator for the first time in four months was below the threshold of 50.0, separating the growth of activity from its decline.
The official PMI for the manufacturing sector of China, published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Sunday, remained unchanged in June, reaching 49.4, which is also below the threshold of 50.0.
Negative macro statistics from China put pressure on New Zealand and Australian dollars.
On Tuesday, the RB of Australia will decide on the interest rate. Early last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key interest rate by 25 bps. to 1.25%, for the first time since August 2016, and its head, Philip Lowe, said that "there is reason to expect a lower key rate".
As expected, on Tuesday, the RBA will again lower its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.00%. This is a strong negative fundamental factor for AUD.
Publication of the RBA decision on rates is scheduled for Tuesday (04:30 GMT), and at 09:30 GMT, the speech of the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, will begin. A sharp increase in volatility is expected in the AUD / USD.
The different directions of the monetary policies of the RBA and the Fed is a strong fundamental factor for reducing AUD / USD.
The medium-term goal of the decline is located at around 0.6770 (2019 lows). Below the key resistance levels of 0.7060 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7110 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6969, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Resistance Levels: 0.7000, 0.7060, 0.7110

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7040. Take-Profit 0.6969, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Buy Stop 0.7040. Stop Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7060, 0.7110

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: Trading Recommendations
02/07/2019
Business confidence in New Zealand continues to fall. This was announced on Tuesday by the New Zealand Economic Research Institute (NZIER). The overall business attitude indicator (NZIER business confidence index) fell in Q2 from -29% to -34%, its lowest level in 10 years.
After the publication of this data, the New Zealand dollar fell, remaining under pressure from Monday after the G20 summit ended last weekend and after the publication of weak economic data from China on Monday.
China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand, buying in this country a significant amount of agricultural production.
At the end of last month, the RBNZ retained the rate at 1.50%, having reduced it earlier in May by 0.25%, which was the first decrease in the key interest rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand since 2016. At the same time, the bank lowered its forecast for the rate to 1.4% in the short term.
On Tuesday, we are waiting for the publication (in the period after 13:45 GMT) of the data with the results of the dairy auction. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -3.8%. The next drop in world prices for dairy products (forecast: -3.6%) will put pressure on the New Zealand dollar.
Below the key resistance level of 0.6715 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable; long-term bearish trend started from 0.8820 in July 2014, prevails. A break of the short-term support level of 0.6653 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will signal a resumption of sales with targets at the support levels of 0.6490 (2019 lows), 0.6430 (2018 lows), 0.6260 (Fibonacci 0% level and minimums of the global decline wave of the pair with level 0.8820, which began in July 2014).
Support Levels: 0.6653, 0.6610, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6715, 0.6726, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6920

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6645. Stop Loss 0.6690. Take-Profit 0.6610, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6690. Stop Loss 0.6645. Take-Profit 0.6715, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6920

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
03/07/2019
The Eurodollar rose at the beginning of the European session on Wednesday after the Markit Economics agency published data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of the Eurozone. PMI indices rose in June (to 52.2 and 53.6, respectively, against 51.8 and 52.9 in May).
However, the euro is under pressure after last Monday at the White House announced the possibility of imposing additional duties on goods from Europe worth $ 4 billion a year, depending on the outcome of the proceedings at the WTO to subsidize Airbus.
Investors are also evaluating the decision of the European Commission to nominate Christine Lagarde to head the ECB instead of Mario Draghi, whose term in office ends on October 31. Now, many economists have become even more confident that the bank will ease monetary policy in the coming months. In their opinion, the European Central Bank will lower its key interest rate by 10 basis points in September to -0.50%, and from November resume the program of quantitative easing or net asset purchases in the amount of 30 billion euros per month.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
On Wednesday, the EUR / USD pair is trading in a narrow range, a breakthrough from which can determine its further dynamics.
The upper limit of the range passes through the mark 1.1323 (resistance level ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the lower limit - through the mark 1.1267 (the support level ЕМА50 on the daily chart). The breakthrough of the support level of 1.1267 will open EUR / USD for a deeper decline with targets located at support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (year lows).
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.1410, EUR / USD will head towards the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
In general, below the key resistance level of 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) the global bearish trend prevails. Short positions are preferred.
We are waiting for the publication of data on business activity in the US services sector for June (13:15 and 14:00 (GMT)). As expected, the business activity index (ISM) of the services sector in the US economy will be lower (55.9 against 56.9 in May). This is a high figure, although its relative decline may cause a short-term weakening of the dollar.
Support Levels: 1.1285, 1.1277, 1.1267, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1323, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1260. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1330. Stop Loss 1.1260. Take-Profit 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
04/07/2019
At the beginning of the European session on Thursday, the XAU / USD is trading near the mark of 1415.00 dollars per ounce, which is 25 dollars less than the annual maximum of 1440.00 reached at the end of last month. On Wednesday, the XAU / USD pair attempted to update this almost 6-year high on expectations that the Fed could lower its interest rate in July (July 30 - 31).
On the eve of the US President Trump again hinted at the need for a cheaper dollar. He wrote in his Twitter feed that “China and Europe are playing a big game, manipulating currencies, and pumping money into their system to compete with the United States. We must respond accordingly or stay in the cold, who sit and politely watch other countries play their games, as they have been doing for many years”.
On Thursday, the XAU / USD again decreases slightly, and trading volumes are falling. In the US today is the day off on the occasion of the celebration of Independence Day.
Now investors are focused on the publication on Friday (12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market.
On Wednesday, less optimistic macro data from the USA was published. Thus, the number of jobs in the US private sector in June increased by only 102,000, while economists expected it to increase by 135,000.
Orders for industrial goods in the United States in May decreased by 0.7% compared with the previous month and amounted to 493.57 billion US dollars. This was also reported Wednesday by the US Department of Commerce.
If data from the US labor market also turns out to be weak, then this will increase the likelihood that the Fed will soon reduce the interest rate, which is a strong negative factor for the dollar and a positive one for gold.
As a rule, when the Fed raises the interest rate, the price of gold decreases because it does not bring investment income, and the cost of its acquisition and storage increases.
In the opposite situation, i.e. with the easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and the growing uncertainty in the financial markets, as well as political or trade conflicts, the demand for gold and its price increase, which we observe in the current situation.


Thus, in spite of the fact that gold is trading at multi-month highs, it’s too early to talk about stopping price growth and demand for it.
The price has broken the important resistance level of 1380.00 last month (Fibonacci 38.2% level of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the level of 1920.00). The breakdown of the resistance level of 1485.00 (50% Fibonacci level) will confirm the completion of the corrective decline and the resumption of price growth.
Predominantly strong positive momentum, pushing XAU / USD to new annual highs.
An alternative scenario implies a resumption of dollar growth and a decline in XAU / USD to a key support level of 1298.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Break of the key support level of 1298.00 will resume the bearish trend, which began in 2012 near the mark of 1795.00. Further targets for the decline are at the support levels of 1200.00, 1185.00, 1160.00 (the minimum of 2018).
Support Levels: 1402.00, 1380.00, 1357.00, 1346.00, 1323.00, 1310.00, 1298.00, 1278.00, 1268.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1424.00, 1440.00, 1485.00

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1398.00. Stop-Loss 1424.00. Take-Profit 1380.00, 1357.00, 1346.00, 1323.00, 1310.00, 1298.00
Buy Stop 1424.00. Stop Loss 1398.00. Take-Profit 1440.00, 1485.00

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: on the eve of the NFP publication
05/07/2019
On Friday, the trades are "on the side" of the dollar, while investors are waiting for publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market. In June, unemployment is expected to remain at the level of 3.6%, while the number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector increased by 165,000, after +75,000 in May.
This is strong data that will support the dollar with the confirmation of the forecast and will force the Fed to wait a little with the rate decrease.
In the American economy, things are not so bad in comparison with other economies, and American consumers continue to actively spend money.
If the growth of new jobs again turns out to be less than 100,000, and unemployment rises, then the markets will take this as a signal to the Fed in the direction of lowering the rate, and by 50 basis points at once. In this case, the pressure on the dollar will resume with a new force.
Meanwhile, the Eurodollar has been declining since the opening of today's trading day. The EUR / USD pair is trading at the beginning of the European session, near the 1.1260 mark, 23 points lower than the opening price of today's trading day. Weak macro statistics, received at the beginning of the European session from Germany, had a negative impact on the euro. In May, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany decreased by 2.2% compared with April, and compared with the same period of the previous year - even more, by 8.6%. The German economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy, and its slowdown will increase the pressure on the ECB towards the adoption of additional incentive measures in the coming months.


EUR / USD broke through two strong support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1277 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline. The breakthrough of the support level of 1.1265 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will provoke a further decline of EUR / USD to the targets located at the support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of the year).
Below resistance levels 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1410 (monthly maximum)
short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.1265, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1255. Stop Loss 1.1295. Take-Profit 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1295. Stop-Loss 1.1255. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
08/07/2019
Unexpectedly strong report on the US labor market for June reduced the likelihood of aggressive easing of the Fed's monetary policy. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of new jobs outside of agriculture in the country in June amounted to +224,000 (against +72,000 in May and the forecast of +165,000 jobs).
Prior to the publication of the report, investors took into account the lowering of the rate at the July Fed meeting by 50 basis points at once. Now investors take into account the 98% probability of lowering interest rates by 0.25% at the Fed meeting on July 30 - 31, according to the CME Group.
This week, investors will follow the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at congressional hearings. If he points out that the Fed will adhere to a softer policy by the end of the year, the dollar will again come under pressure.
On Wednesday (14:00 GMT), the Bank of Canada will decide on the interest rate. It is widely expected that the Bank of Canada at this meeting will leave rates unchanged (at 1.75%).
This is a positive factor for the Canadian currency against the background of the fact that other major central banks are easing their monetary policy.
Also, the Canadian dollar will receive support from the expected increase in oil prices after last week OPEC announced the extension of the transaction to restrict production for 9 months.
Thus, most likely, the pair USD / CAD will retain a tendency to decline.
Last month, USD / CAD broke through the key support level of 1.3260 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart.
Downward trend prevails. The targets for the decline are the support levels of 1.3015, 1.2850 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700).
Consideration of long positions can be returned after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3109 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with the goal at the resistance level of 1.3260. More distant growth targets after the breakdown level of 1.3260 are at resistance levels of 1.3520 (2019 highs), 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2850, 1.2740
Resistance Levels: 1.3109, 1.3260, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.3055. Stop Loss 1.3115. Take-Profit 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2850, 1.2740
Buy Stop 1.3115. Stop Loss 1.3055. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3260, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790