Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: the threat of recession is growing
08/07/2019
The sharp aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China led to increased fears of a recession in the United States and an even greater slowdown in global economic growth. This causes an increase in demand for defensive assets such as yen, government bonds, gold.
The yield on government bonds continues to decline, indicating an increasingly pessimistic mood of investors regarding the prospects for the economy. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell on Wednesday to 1.660% from 1.864% on Friday, to the lowest level since October 2016.
Gold quotes broke through the level of 1485.00 on Wednesday, reaching $ 1491.00 per troy ounce at the beginning of the European session. This is consistent with new highs since May 2013.
Shortly after the threat from the United States to impose new duties, the Chinese leadership banned state-owned companies from purchasing agricultural products, including soybeans, from the United States, which is a serious blow to American farmers. New duties will also increase the price of all goods in the United States.
If U.S. stock indices begin to decline again and close this week near the levels reached on Tuesday, then this will be the strongest weekly decline since December 2018.
White House economic adviser Lawrence Kudlow told CNBC on Tuesday that the US still wants to strike a deal with China despite being recognized it as currency manipulator, and continues to prepare for the Chinese trade delegation to arrive in the US in September.
However, many observers do not expect the United States or China to make any concessions. The trade conflict between the countries becomes unpredictable, which even more worries investors and increases the likelihood of a recession in the US and in the world.
Many economists estimate the likelihood of a recession in the United States next year at 50%.
In this situation, the demand from investors for protective assets and gold, including, is likely to continue in the near future.
And as soon as the Fed announces further easing of monetary policy, the price of gold will go in the direction of multi-year and absolute highs near the mark of 1920.00 dollars per ounce.
On Wednesday, XAU / USD hit a new 6-year high near 1491.00. The pair tested an important resistance level of 1485.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00). Fixation in the zone above this resistance level will indicate the completion of the correction and the full restoration of the global bullish gold trend.
In case of further growth of the XAU / USD pair, the intermediate target is at the resistance level of 1585.00 (Fibonacci level of 61.8%).
A strong positive momentum prevails. Above the local support levels of 1452.00 (July highs), 1440.00 (June highs), long positions are preferred.
An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of these support levels and a decrease to support levels of 1380.00 (Fibonacci 38.2% and highs of 2016), 1366.00 (highs of 2018), 1346.00 (bottom line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
But it’s too early to think about sales.
Support Levels: 1452.00, 1440.00, 1413.00, 1380.00, 1366.00, 1346.00, 1325.00, 1315.00, 1284.00, 1268.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1485.00, 1500.00, 1585.00

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1470.00. Stop-Loss 1493.00. Take-Profit 1452.00, 1440.00, 1413.00
Buy Stop 1493.00. Stop-Loss 1470.00. Take-Profit 1500.00, 1585.00

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: downward dynamics prevails
08/08/2019
Current Dynamics
The escalation of the trade war between the United States and China has strengthened expectations of a worsening situation in world international trade and the economy. The growth of fears about this caused a collapse of stock quotes and indices on world stock markets. Demand for safe haven assets, such as government bonds, yen, gold, has risen sharply. On Wednesday, gold prices exceeded $ 1,500 an ounce for the first time in six years. Since the beginning of the month, prices have increased by 6.9%, and from the end of May - by 15%. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell on Wednesday to 1.595% from 1.864% on Friday, to the lowest level since October 2016.
Last Wednesday, interest rates fell immediately by three central banks (India, New Zealand and Thailand). On Wednesday, the RBNZ lowered its official interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00%, which was the second rate cut this year.
As follows from the text of the RBNZ statement, "global economic activity continues to weaken ... increased uncertainty and reduced international trade contribute to lower economic growth in the trading partner countries ... and central banks relax monetary policy to support their economies".
The RBA last Tuesday left the key interest rate at a record low of 1%, but gave a pessimistic forecast for the economy. "It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required to progress towards lowering unemployment and achieve steady progress towards the target inflation rate", Philip Lowe said on Tuesday.
At 23:30 (GMT) on Thursday, Lowe will begin speaking with members of the parliamentary committee on economics. If he points out that the key rate needs to be lowered again, then the Australian dollar will again be under pressure. In this case, the pair AUD / USD will again go “south” as part of a global downtrend.
At the beginning of the European session, the pair AUD / USD is trading near the level of 0.6787, correcting after falling on Wednesday.
Nevertheless, negative dynamics prevail, despite the correction. It is likely that the current position of AUD / USD and growth to the levels of 0.6800, 0.6816, 0.6830 will be a good opportunity to resume sales of this currency pair.
We can return to the consideration of long positions only after the growth of AUD / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6910 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) with targets not higher than the key resistance level of 0.7065 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008-2009).
Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6816, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7065

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6800, 0.6816, 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6870. Stop-Loss 0.6810. Take-Profit 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7065

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: negative momentum prevails
08/09/2019
Global financial markets remain under pressure from intensified international trade conflicts, primarily between the United States and China. The oil market does not stand aside. Oil prices are actively declining, having lost about 25% over the past 12 months.
Last Thursday, the price reached a new 7-month low near $ 50.47 per barrel of WTI crude oil after Donald Trump announced the introduction of new duties on the import of Chinese goods into the United States.
The trade conflict between the United States and China reached a new level when Chinese authorities announced retaliation. In particular, Beijing banned Chinese state-owned companies from buying soybeans in the United States, and the People's Bank of China lowered the RMB to dollar exchange rate below 7.0000.
The oil market received an additional negative impetus after last Wednesday the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration reported an increase in oil reserves in the country last week (+2.385 million barrels, while oil reserves were expected to fall by 2.845 million barrels).
The fall in oil prices indicates an increase in investor anxiety about the state of the global economy, which continues to negatively affect financial markets.
The breakdown of the support level of 50.30 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near the level of 76.80 to the level of support near the mark of 42.15) and a further decrease will mean the return of WTI oil prices to the global bearish trend.
In this case, the preliminary reduction targets will be located at the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and December 2018 lows).
In an alternative scenario, the signal to resume purchases will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 54.40 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and growth into the zone above the resistance level 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) with targets at the resistance level 58.80 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Fixing the price in the zone above the resistance level of 59.50 (Fibonacci level of 50%) will speak about the resumption of the bull trend.
On Friday, oil market participants will follow the publication (at 17:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports indicated a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States, to 770 units at the moment. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.
However, a strong negative momentum prevails. Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 58.00, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 51.85. Stop-Loss 53.75. Take-Profit 50.30, 49.00

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Current Dynamics and Recommendations
08/12/2019
In July, the S&P500 rose to record highs near 3028.0, which is about 22% higher than the opening price at the beginning of the year.
The growth of US stock indexes was contributed by the expectations of lower interest rates by the Fed and the positive macro statistics coming from the USA. However,
investors' concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth and the aggravation of trade confrontation between the US and China caused a sharp increase in volatility in world stock markets and a drop in indices. After sharp fluctuations, all three leading US indices finished the week with a decline of about 1%.
S&P500 completed last week at around 2918.0.
"We are not ready to conclude an agreement, but we'll see how everything goes", Trump told reporters on Friday. "We'll see if China meets with us in September".
During today's Asian session, the S&P500 and other major US stock indexes rose, but fell again at the beginning of the European session. Thus, S&P500 futures are trading at the beginning of the European session on Monday near the level of 2907.0, 14 points below the opening price today.
The S&P500 futures are trading below resistance levels at 2944.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 2934.0, 2920.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Below the short-term resistance level of 2920.0, short positions with targets located near the support levels of 2845.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0) are preferable. Above these support levels, the S&P500 bullish trend remains.
The breakdown of support levels 2845.0, 2865.0 can trigger a deeper decline to support levels 2765.0 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 2680.0 (Fibonacci 50%).
You can return to shopping after fixing the S&P500 in the zone above the resistance level of 2944.0.
Support levels: 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2765.0, 2730. 2680.0
Resistance Levels: 2920.0, 2934.0, 2944.0, 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0

Trading recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 2945.0. Goals 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2800.0
Buy Stop 2945.0. Stop-Loss 2910.0. Goals 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: what awaits Eurodollar
08/13/2019
After the ECB signaled in July that it was ready to soften its monetary policy, EUR / USD hit a new annual low near 1.1100, but then adjusted to current levels.
Since the opening of today's trading day, the Eurodollar has moderately decreased, while continuing to trade in the range near the short-term support level of 1.1185 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and short-term resistance level of 1.1200 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Expectations of further easing of the monetary policy of the ECB put pressure on the euro and the pair EUR / USD. It is likely that at the ECB meeting on September 12 a whole package of measures will be taken, including a 0.25% reduction in the interest rate and a restart of the quantitative easing program worth 2.6 trillion euros.
At the same time, despite Trump's criticism of the Fed and its monetary policy, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut, the dollar continues to be in demand among investors.
Underestimated risks that the UK will leave the European Union on October 31 without any agreement on Brexit, political and economic differences within Eurozone, as well as the accelerating devaluation of national currencies in a number of countries (at the beginning of the month there are three central banks at once - India, Thailand, New Zealand - reduced interest rates), only add the negative in relation to the mood of the business.
Investors are concerned about the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China (from September 1, the US is expected to introduce new 10% import duties on Chinese goods). On the other hand, the American economy looks more stable in comparison with other major world economies and continues to grow, which causes an influx of investment in American assets and the dollar.
Below the resistance levels 1.1315 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist.
An upward correction is also possible, but so far no higher than the resistance levels of 1.1245 (the upper line of the descending channel on the daily chart and the highs of August), 1.1270 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.1185, 1.1125, 1.1070, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1200, 1.1245, 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1315

Trading Scenarios
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1070, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1250. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1315

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
08/14/2019
As reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday, the wage index in the 2nd quarter grew by 0.6% and by 2.3% in annual terms. The forecast was + 0.5% and + 2.2%, respectively.
The data were better than expected. However, this is not enough to accelerate inflation. RBA Governor Philip Lowe called slower wage growth and productivity a major economic challenge.
Earlier this month, RB of Australia left the key interest rate at a record low of 1%, but gave a pessimistic forecast for the economy. RBA managing director Philip Lowe lowered the forecast for Australia's GDP growth in 2019 to 2.5% from 2.75% and added that unemployment is expected to drop to about 5% in the next two years. According to the RBA management, for the growth of salaries and acceleration of inflation to the target range, an unemployment rate of 4.5% or lower is required. Now unemployment is at the level of 5.2% and is gradually growing, but not decreasing, and the return of inflation to the middle of the target range of 2% -3% is not visible even on a distant horizon.
"It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required to progress towards lowering unemployment and achieve steady progress towards the target inflation rate", Lowe said after an RBA meeting in August.
On Thursday (01:30 GMT) data from the Australian labor market will be published. Most likely, in July unemployment remained unchanged at 5.2%.
The expectation of further easing of the monetary policy of the RBA puts pressure on the AUD in the direction of its further weakening.
Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened on Tuesday after the publication of data on consumer inflation in the United States, which turned out to be better than forecast, and after the White House announced that it would postpone the introduction of new tariffs on imports of some Chinese goods until December 15.
At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, the pair AUD / USD is trading near the level of 0.6760. Negative dynamics prevails.
Entry into short positions is allowed "by the market". A possible correctional increase to the resistance levels of 0.6795 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6830, 0.6865 (May lows), 0.6885 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will be an additional opportunity to resume sales of this currency pair.
We can return to the consideration of long positions only after the growth of AUD / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6885 with targets located no higher than the key resistance level of 0.7050 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6795, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6885, 0.7000, 0.7050

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6795, 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6840. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6840. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit .6865, 0.6885, 0.7000, 0.7050

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: dynamics and recommendations
08/15/2019
Since the opening of today's trading day, the American dollar has been declining. At the beginning of today's European session, DXY dollar index futures are trading near 97.70, 12 pips below the opening price of today's trading day. Meanwhile, commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, also remain under pressure amid a worsening trade war between the US and China.
New Zealand's export-oriented economy is extremely vulnerable amid escalating trade war between the US and China.
Last week, the RBNZ cut the rate by 50 bp to 1.00%, explaining this decision by the worsening trade war between the US and China and the loss of momentum in the New Zealand economy.
RBNZ leaders believe that wage growth remains weak. At the same time, inflationary expectations are falling, and low levels of business confidence indicate a slowdown in hiring and wage growth.
There is growing concern among participants in international financial markets that the slowdown in economic growth and the threat of recession will spread to the whole world, including China, the United States, and their trade and economic partners. It can be assumed that the global cycle of rate cuts will gain momentum in the next few months.
In the current situation, further easing of the monetary policy of the RB of New Zealand should be expected, which is a strong negative factor for NZD.
Currently, NZD / USD is trading near the level and the local support level of 0.6430 (October 2018 lows).
A breakdown of this level will provoke a further decrease in NZD / USD with targets at support levels of 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and minimums of the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820).
Short positions are preferable, unless, of course, the Fed also begins to aggressively lower the interest rate amid ongoing events in the financial markets.
Below the resistance level of 0.6680 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the bearish trend NZD / USD prevails.
Support Levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6480, 0.6570, 0.6635, 0.6680, 0.6700, 0.6790

Trading Scenarios
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6510. Stop-Loss 0.6460. Take-Profit 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6680

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
08/16/2019
With the opening of today's trading day, Eurodollar is again declining. Market participants are preparing for the next ECB meeting in September and new stimulus measures by the European Central Bank.
According to Olli Rehn, member of the ECB Governing Council, the European Central Bank at its meeting in September will announce a substantial stimulus package that will exceed investor expectations.
The ECB is likely to announce a 0.1% reduction in the key interest rate, which is now -0.4%, as well as an allocation of about 50 billion euros per month for additional bond purchases under the quantitative easing program.
Published disappointing economic data from China and Germany this week, as well as positive macro data from the United States, made market participants even more doubt the prospects for global economic growth, and also again updated the attractiveness of American assets and a more stable state of the US economy.
According to official data released on Thursday, US retail sales in July rose 0.7% (forecast was + 0.3%).
Retail sales data are encouraging regarding the US economy, that remains demand for US assets and the dollar.
Today (at 14:00 GMT) the University of Michigan consumer confidence index (preliminary release for August) will be published, which reflects the confidence of American consumers in the country's economic development. It is expected that this indicator will come out in August with a value of 97.7 (against 98.4 in July), which could negatively affect the dollar (in the short term) due to a relative decrease in the indicator. Data better than expected will certainly support the dollar, and will put additional pressure on EUR / USD.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1305 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist. In the current situation, short positions look relevant and safer, and the reduction targets are located at support levels 1.1000, 1.0000.
You can return to purchases as part of the corrective growth of EUR / USD only after fixing the price in the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.1160 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
Resistance Levels: 1.1125, 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1130. Take-Profit 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
Buy Stop 1.1130. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Current Dynamics and Recommendations
Expectations of a softening of the monetary policy of the Fed and positive macro statistics coming from the United States, contributed to the growth of major US stock indexes last month to new heights.
The S&P500 index updated a record high near 3028.0, however, subsequently collapsed amid Trump's threats to introduce new duties on Chinese goods from September 1.
S&P500 last week again tested the key support level of 2848.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), dropping to around 2815.0.
Nevertheless, investors are gradually becoming more active after recent events related to the aggravation of the trade conflict between the USA and China.
At the beginning of the new week, gold quotes and yield on US government bonds are declining.
Investors are encouraged by the prospect of new incentive measures by the Central Banks in several countries with the largest economies.
Last week, the White House administration decided to postpone plans to introduce a new 10% duty on some Chinese goods worth $ 156 billion, which was due to take effect on September 1. In addition, the White House said that they are preparing the next round of negotiations.
Since the opening of today's trading day, the S&P500 has been growing, and for the third day in a row.
Above the support levels of 2848.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0), the S&P500 long-term bullish trend remains.
After the breakdown of the resistance level of 2927.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the S&P500 will continue to move towards recent highs near 3028.0.
Support Levels: 2900.0, 2892.0, 2865.0, 2848.0, 2765.0, 2730. 2680.0
Resistance Levels: 2927.0, 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2888.0. Stop-Loss 2929.0. Goals 2865.0, 2848.0
Buy Stop 2929.0. Stop-Loss 2888.0. Goals 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: downward trend prevails
08/20/2019
Amid the risks to the British economy, the GBP / USD resumed falling due to the increased likelihood of a “hard” Brexit. Economists and government officials warn that a tough Brexit will negatively impact the economy.
Boris Johnson, who succeeded Theresa May as a prime minister, said he was ready for a "hard" Brexit. On October 31, Great Britain must finally withdraw from the EU, even if no agreement is reached between the parties. In his view, "the exit agreement is dead and should be canceled, but there is the possibility of a new deal".
Boris Johnson is scheduled to meet with EU leaders this week. Probably, following the results of these meetings, new negative news for the pound will appear. The UK government reiterates its intention to withdraw the country from the bloc by October 31, and the EU does not intend to revise the earlier exit agreement.
Labor leader Jeremy Corbin has called on various parties to vote no confidence in Prime Minister Boris Johnson in order to remove him from his post and make Brexit possible to a later date.
Nevertheless, the efforts of Jeremy Corbin to prevent a hard Brexit so far have little effect on the dynamics of the pound. Investors are preparing for the worst scenario.
Long-term negative dynamics prevail. The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of a correction to the GBP / USD decline in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
We can return to the consideration of long positions only after the pair will grow into the zone above the resistance level of 1.2280 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart and the upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart).
However, growth above the local resistance levels of 1.2480, 1.2530 is unlikely. In the current situation, so far only short positions on the GBP / USD should be considered.
Support Levels: 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2120, 1.2210, 1.2280, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2740

Trading Scenarios
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.2180. Take-Profit 1.2000, 1.1900
Buy Stop 1.2180. Stop-Loss 1.2080. Take-Profit 1.2210, 1.2280, 1.2480, 1.2530

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: positive dynamics continues
08/21/2019
Current Dynamics
On Wednesday (at 18:00 GMT) the minutes of the July meeting of the Fed will be published, which may indicate a further path for the development of monetary policy in the United States. Investors expect from the Fed additional signals regarding the prospects of monetary policy. Many economists and market participants expect that Fed rates by the end of the year will be below the current level of 2.25%. Today it is the highest rate among the 8 largest world central banks.
Second on this list is the Bank of Canada. In July, the Bank of Canada left the target value of the one-day interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
The next meeting of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy is scheduled for September 4. Market participants will pay attention to the publication, on Wednesday at 12:30 (GMT), of the inflationary consumer price indices in Canada, which reflect the dynamics of retail prices in the corresponding basket of goods and services. The target inflation rate for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1% -3%. The increase in CPI is a harbinger of a rate increase and a positive factor for CAD. If the data for July is worse than the previous values, then this will negatively affect CAD. Data is better than expected and above the previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar. In this case, USD / CAD will decline.

At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, the USD / CAD pair is trading at 1.3300,
near the short-term support level of 1.3284 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
A breakdown of this level will provoke a further decrease in the framework of the downward correction with targets at support levels 1.3245, 1.3230 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of these levels will trigger a further decline in the medium-term bearish trend with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2880 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Above the key support level of 1.3245 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive dynamics of USD / CAD prevails. Long positions with targets at resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and the level of 0.9700), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (maximums of the year) are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.3284, 1.3245, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880
Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3275. Stop-Loss 1.3350. Take-Profit 1.3245, 1.3230
Buy Stop 1.3350. Stop-Loss 1.3275. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: negative dynamics prevail
08/22/2019
Expectations of further easing of the monetary policy of the ECB put pressure on the euro and the pair EUR / USD. Eurodollar strengthened at the beginning of today's European session after the publication of positive macro statistics from the Eurozone.
The preliminary German manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in August was 43.6 (against the forecast of 43.0 and 43.2 in July). A similar index in France was also better than forecast (51.0 against the forecast of 49.5 and 49.7 in July).
The pair EUR / USD reached an intraday maximum near 1.1113, but then fell again, moving to negative territory.
Despite the fact that the data were better than predicted, the German economy in August continues to slow down. "Despite some improvement, production data did not grow enough to avert the threat of another small drop in GDP in the 3rd quarter, especially given the deterioration of leading indicators", IHS Markit said.
In the current situation, short positions are preferred, and the reduction targets are located at support levels of 1.1000, 1.0000.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1300 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist.
Support Levels: 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
Resistance Levels: 1.1117, 1.1165, 1.1185, 1.1245, 1.1285, 1.1300

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
Buy Stop 1.1125. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1165, 1.1185

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: short positions are still preferred
08/23/2019
Statements by Fed Chancellor Angela Merkel that the EU and the UK could come to an agreement on Brexit by October 31 have caused the pound to strengthen and the GBP / USD pair to rise to 1.2273, which corresponds to a 3-week high.
However, on Friday, the decline in the pound and GBP / USD pair resumed. Investors are still betting on the further weakening of the pound, since the risks of the “hard” Brexit remain.
“We are ready” for the hard Brexit scenario, French President Macron reiterated, while Boris Johnson said that Britain is also intensely preparing to leave the EU without any agreement.
Meanwhile, investors expect the beginning (at 14:00 GMT) of the speech of the head of the Fed Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole. Market participants want to understand the Fed's future plans for monetary policy.
Several Fed leaders, as follows from the minutes of the July 30-31 meeting, believe that rates should be left unchanged because "the real economy remains in good shape".
Despite conflicting signals from the Fed management, many market participants still expect one or two more Fed rate cuts this year, and the first reduction is already at the Fed meeting on September 17-18.
The long-term negative dynamics of GBP / USD prevails. In case of breakdown of the short-term support level 1.2150 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) GBP / USD will go towards the support level 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the GBP / USD pair decline in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level 1.7200).
Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2265, 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730

Trading Scenarios
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.2280. Take-Profit 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2280. Stop-Loss 1.2190. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: a new strong drop in indices
08/26/2019
Last month, the DJIA updated its absolute and annual maximum near the 27400.0 mark on expectations of a softer Fed monetary policy. Earlier, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed and called for lowering the interest rate by 1% at once, saying that this will accelerate growth in the stock market and support American producers.
The Fed lowered the rate by 0.25% at the end of July, however, stock markets reacted with restraint to this news, as many investors expected a rate cut by 0.50%.
However, stock indices, including DJIA, plummeted after Trump tweeted about the introduction of new 10% duties on Chinese goods from September 1.
August turned out to be extremely volatile. Fears of a slowdown in the global economy and further escalation of international trade conflicts do not leave investors.
Last Friday, global stock indices collapsed after China announced the introduction of duties on US goods worth $ 75 billion, and Donald Trump announced a response to this step of China.
On Monday, markets recovered some of the losses previously sustained after China Vice Premier Liu He said he wanted to resolve trade issues with the United States.
Market participants continue to follow any comments by the US and Chinese authorities regarding trade negotiations.
The deterioration of prospects in this direction may again bring down stock indices. Conversely, a warming or easing in trade disputes between the US and China will support stock indices.
The return of the DJIA to the zone above the resistance level of 26330.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart and local maximums) will indicate a recovery in the bull trend and the resumption of purchases.
Nevertheless, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts are still on the side of the sellers. Shopping is still premature.
Support Levels: 25270.0, 24600.0
Resistance Levels: 26030.0, 26100.0, 26330.0, 26700.0, 27000.0, 27400.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 26500.0. Stop-Loss 25800.0. Take-Profit 27000.0, 27400.0, 27500.0
Sell Stop 25600.0. Stop-Loss 26100.0. Take-Profit 25300.0, 24600.0

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
08/27/2019
Last Thursday, the pound strengthened sharply, while the GBP / USD pair reached an intraday and 3-week high near 1.2273. The pound was strengthened by statements by Fed Chancellor Angela Merkel that the EU and Britain could come to an agreement on Brexit by October 31. Earlier media reported that Merkel invited Britain to find a solution to the Irish problem within 30 days.
Optimism regarding the prospect of an agreement on Brexit after negotiations between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the heads of Germany and France caused the pound to rise late last week.
However, economists have warned that the growth of the pound "has no fundamental justification".
At the Jackson Hole summit, Bank of England head Mark Carney said the UK’s prospects "depend on the timing and nature of Brexit".
The risks of the “hard” Brexit are high. On October 31, Great Britain will withdraw from the EU with or without an agreement.
This creates the prerequisites for the resumption of the weakening of the pound and the fall of the pair GBP / USD.
There are no important macro data today. The focus of the traders will be the speeches of two representatives of central banks. From the vice president of the European Central Bank, Luis de Gindos, investors are waiting for signals to approve stimulus measures at the September meeting. Earlier in August, ECB board member Olli Rehn said markets could count on a “very serious set of measures”.
The second speaker (at 12:00 GMT), Bank of England representative Sylvanas Tenreiro, can talk about how interest rate policy will depend on the course of negotiations on Brexit.
At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, the GBP / USD pair is trading at an important resistance level of 1.2265 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
A breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.2292 may trigger further growth of GBP / USD with the target at the resistance level of 1.2340 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
In any case, an increase above the resistance levels of 1.2480, 1.2530 is unlikely.
A signal for the resumption of sales may be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.2185 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of a correction to the GBP / USD pair decline in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
Long-term negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2210, 1.2185, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2265, 1.2292, 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730

Trading Scenarios
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.2310. Take-Profit 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2310. Stop-Loss 1.2190. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: demand for precious metals remains
08/28/2019
Precious metals continue to grow in price. Gold futures closed on Tuesday at their highest level since 2013, and silver futures reached a maximum of closure in more than 3 years. Rising prices for these precious metals is promoted by both a weakening dollar due to expectations of further easing of the Fed's monetary policy and a decrease in the US stock market due to continuing concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and the negative effects of the trade conflict between the US and China.
Back on Friday, when China announced the introduction of import duties on goods from the United States in the amount of 5% or 10% worth about 75 billion dollars, US President Donald Trump announced his intention to increase all existing and planned duties by 5%. This means that Chinese goods worth $ 250 billion will now be taxed at 30%, and new duties on goods worth $ 130 billion will be 15%, not 10%.
On Monday, Trump spoke about the prospects for US-Chinese trade relations in a conciliatory tone, and Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He expressed a desire to resolve trade disputes with the United States.
Nevertheless, the conclusion of a trade agreement between the two countries is very far away. It is possible that Beijing will take a "wait and see" attitude before the election of the new US president in 2020.
December gold futures rose Tuesday at COMEX by $ 14.60, or 1%, to $ 1551.80 an ounce. This is the highest closing level for the most actively trading futures since April 2013.
On Wednesday, gold is trading in a range near recent highs. At the beginning of the European trading session on Wednesday, a troy ounce of gold costs $1542.50.
In the current situation, the demand for protective assets, including gold, will continue. With any correctional decline of the XAU / USD pair, should enter long positions. The most suitable places for this are the support levels of 1495.00 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart and local lows), 1485.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the level of 1920.00), 1474.00 (line of the 200-period moving average on 4-hour chart).
For more aggressive purchases, current levels are suitable, as well as a support level of 1517.00 (EMA200 on a 1-hour chart).
The fundamental background creates the prerequisites for maintaining the demand for gold and the further growth of XAU / USD. With the easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and other major global central banks, as well as amid geopolitical and trade tensions, demand for gold will grow.
So far, a strong positive momentum prevails. Above the support levels of 1474.00, 1485.00, long positions are preferred.
Only a breakdown of key support levels of 1354.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1290.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will resume the bearish trend, which began in 2012 near the mark of 1795.00.
Support Levels: 1517.00, 1495.00, 1485.00, 1474.00, 1452.00, 1440.00, 1413.00, 1380.00, 1354.00, 1290.00
Resistance Levels: 1555.00, 1585.00

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1515.00. Stop-Loss 1556.00. Take-Profit 1495.00, 1485.00, 1474.00, 1452.00
Buy Stop 1556.00. Stop-Loss 1515.00. Take-Profit 1585.00, 1600.00

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
08/29/2019
On Thursday, the EUR / USD pair is trading in the range near the local support level and the mark of 1.1070. The euro remains under pressure in anticipation of a significant easing of monetary policy at the ECB meeting on September 12. Olli Rehn, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, said in the middle of the month that the European Central Bank will announce a substantial stimulus package in September that will exceed investors' expectations.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts recommend short positions, confirming the prevalence of downward dynamics.
The immediate goals in the event of a further decrease in EUR / USD will be the support levels of 1.1030 (local minimum), 1.1000.
In an alternative scenario, a breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1110 (ЕМА200 on a 1-hour chart) may become a signal to start an upward correction. The target is located at resistance levels 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart and the upper line of the descending channel on the daily chart), 1.1165 (local maximums and ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
However, this is an unlikely scenario. In the current situation, short positions are preferred.
At 12:00 (GMT) inflation indicators in Germany will be published. Recent data indicate weak inflationary pressures in Germany.
Forecast for August (preliminary estimate): + 1.2%. The growth of the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) is a positive factor for the euro. If the data for August turn out to be worse than the forecast or the previous value (+ 1.1%), then the euro will be under additional negative pressure.
Support Levels: 1.1070, 1.1030, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1100, 1.1117, 1.1150, 1.1165, 1.1200, 1.1245, 1.1285

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1120. Take-Profit 1.1030, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1120. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1150, 1.1165, 1.1200, 1.1245

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
08/30/2019
At the beginning of the European session on Friday, USD / CAD is trading at a short-term support level of 1.3290 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
In the event of a breakdown of this support level and the development of a downward correction, USD / CAD may decrease to the support level of 1.3250 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, above this support level, long-term positive dynamics prevail. After the breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3345 (August highs) USD / CAD will go towards the local resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and the level of 0.9700), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).
Only a breakdown of the key support level 1.3250 and the local support level 1.3230 can trigger a further decline with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2880 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
In general, the US dollar maintains a positive trend, and above the 1.3300 mark, long USD / CAD positions are preferred.
Futures on the DXY dollar index is trading at the beginning of the European session on Friday near 98.50, 11 points above the opening price of today's trading day. The growth for the week at the moment is already + 0.98%, which allows the DXY index to remain in positive territory by the results of the month.
From the news today, we are waiting for the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of a whole block of important macro statistics for Canada (Canadian GDP for June and for the 2nd quarter) and the United States (index of personal spending and personal consumption spending of Americans for July).
In view of the importance of the data published at 12:30 (GMT), one should be prepared for the growth of volatility in the USD / CAD pair during this period of time.
Support Levels: 1.3290, 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3115, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880
Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3265. Stop-Loss 1.3325. Take-Profit 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3115, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880
Buy Stop 1.3325. Stop-Loss 1.3265. Take-Profit 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
09/02/2019
On Tuesday, the next meeting of the RB of Australia will be devoted to issues of monetary policy. The decision on the interest rate will be published at 04:30 (GMT).
On the eve of this event last Sunday, new duties on the import of Chinese goods into the United States entered into force. Fee of 15% on a number of goods used mainly in everyday life will be approximately 110-115 billion US dollars, according to economists.
The escalation of tension in US-Chinese trade relations overshadows the economic prospects of not only the United States and China, but also other countries, especially their trading partners. This contributes to growing expectations that the world's largest central banks will continue to soften their monetary policy.
At a previous meeting in August, the RBA left the key interest rate at a record low of 1%, but gave a pessimistic forecast for the economy. RBA managing director Philip Lowe lowered the forecast for Australia's GDP growth in 2019 to 2.5% from 2.75% and added that unemployment is expected to drop to about 5% in the next two years. According to the RBA management, for the growth of salaries and acceleration of inflation to the target range, an unemployment rate of 4.5% or lower is required. Now unemployment is above the 5% level and is gradually growing, but not decreasing, and the return of inflation to the middle of the target range of 2% -3% is not visible even on a distant horizon.
"It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required for progress towards lowering unemployment and achieving steady progress towards the target inflation rate," Lowe said after an RBA meeting in August.
Probably, at a meeting on Tuesday, the RBA will not yet begin to change the interest rate, but signal such a decrease towards the end of the year.
If Lowe declares this, then the Australian dollar will again be under pressure, and the pair AUD / USD will continue to decline.
Today is a day off in the USA (Labor Day). US banks and exchanges will be closed. In this regard, trading volumes during the US trading session will be insignificant.
Meanwhile, AUD / USD has been declining since the opening of today. At the beginning of the European session on Monday, the pair AUD / USD is trading near the level of 0.6720. Negative dynamics prevails. The objectives of the decline are the support levels of 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
Support Levels: 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6745, 0.6810, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6960, 0.7000, 0.7015

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6795, 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6840. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6865, 0.6960, 0.7000

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: American dollar is in demand
09/03/2019
Current Dynamics
The US dollar returns its previously lost positions, while commodity currencies are falling in price amid escalation of the trade conflict the USA with China.
On Tuesday, USD / CAD again tested the local resistance level of 1.3345, reached in August. Above the support level of 1.3250, the long-term positive dynamics of USD / CAD prevails. Long positions are preferred.
In the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3345 (August highs) USD / CAD will go towards the local resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).
In connection with the upcoming meeting of the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, you should also pay attention to the publication on Tuesday (at 13:30 GMT) of the PMI index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the economy of Canada, provided by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). This indicator is an important indicator of the state of the Canadian economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the CAD, below 50 - as negative for the Canadian dollar. Forecast: 51.0 in August (against 51.2 in July). A relative decrease in the value (above 50) will have a short-term negative impact on the Canadian dollar. The data above the forecast will strengthen CAD.
Thus, most likely, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday will not reduce the rate from the current level of 1.75%, but will make it closer to the end of the year. Any hint from the Bank of Canada's management on this issue will put downward pressure on CAD.
In an alternative scenario, the signal for the resumption of short positions will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 1.3303 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The objectives of the decline are the support levels 1.3250, 1.3258 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of these levels will trigger a further decline in the medium-term bearish trend with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2880 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.3303, 1.3258, 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880
Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.3285. Stop-Loss 1.3355. Take-Profit 1.3258, 1.3250, 1.3230
Buy Stop 1.3355. Stop-Loss 1.3285. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660