Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: the demand for gold is growing again
10/04/2019
Current Dynamics
In less than an hour, the ECB’s rate decision will be published. It is widely expected that the main interest rates of the ECB will remain at the same level of 0% and -0.4%, and the management of the ECB will again speak out in favor of maintaining a soft monetary policy.
At 16:00 (GMT) the EU summit dedicated to Brexit will begin. EU leaders during the summit will discuss the possibility of extending the UK exit from the block. The EU leaders are likely to give Britain more time.
At 18:00 (GMT), the minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Fed will be published (“FOMC Minutes”).
Many economists expect US interest rates to remain unchanged in 2019 and to be reduced in 2020. This is a negative factor for the dollar and a positive one for gold quotes. The harsh rhetoric of Fed officials about the prospects for monetary policy will push the dollar to further growth, and gold prices may weaken. However, a significant drop in gold prices in the current environment (slowing global economy and rising political and trade tensions in the world) is also not expected.

XAU / USD trades in a narrow range on the eve of important events, near the mark of 1306.00 dollars per ounce, above the short-term support levels of 1299.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 1301.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and above the key support levels of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61, 8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1274.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Long term uptrend persists.
In the case of a breakdown of support levels of 1301.00, 1299.00, XAU / USD will decline in the direction of key support levels of 1277.00, 1274.00.
The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).
Support Levels: 1301.00, 1299.00, 1285.00, 1277.00, 1274.00, 1266.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1298.00. Stop Loss 1308.00. Take-Profit 1285.00, 1277.00, 1274.00, 1266.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1308.00. Stop Loss 1298.00. Take-Profit 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Trading Scenarios
11/04/2019
The soft rhetoric of the ECB leaders and their signals about the likelihood of easing of monetary policy, sounded on Wednesday, could not stop the growth of the Eurodollar. The EUR / USD pair has grown, mainly due to the weakening dollar. Fed leaders, according to the minutes of the March meeting of the American central bank, published on Wednesday, concerned about the slowdown in the global economy, which threatens to worsen the situation in the US economy. It follows from the protocols that the leaders of the central bank do not see the conditions for a further increase in interest rates.

Having reached the level of 1.1190 at the beginning of the month (lows of March and 2019), EUR / USD turned "north" and continued to grow, up to the current European session.
Nevertheless, EUR / USD again failed to overcome the important resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) and resumed its decline by the beginning of the American session.
A break of the short-term support level of 1.1255 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of EUR / USD sales.
The growth scenario will be associated with fixing in the zone above the resistance level of 1.1300, which will create prerequisites for a stronger upward correction to resistance levels of 1.1395 (ЕМА144), 1.1450 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Below resistance level 1.1285 short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1255, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1395, 1.1450

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1310. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop Loss 1.1270. Take-Profit 1.1370, 1.1395, 1.1450

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD / USD: Current Dynamics
12/04/2019
Positive macro statistics from China contributes to the growth of commodity currencies and stock indices on Friday. AUD / USD traded at the beginning of the US trading session near the strong resistance level of 0.7170 (EMA144 on the daily chart) on a positive impulse received from the publication of strongly Chinese macro statistics.
In the event of a breakdown of this level, the next upside target for AUD / USD will be the key resistance level of 0.7217 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), a rise above which is unlikely.
In the case of a rebound from the resistance level of 0.7170 and a return below the support level of 0.7127 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), short positions will again become relevant.
In this case, AUD / USD will go towards the support levels of 0.7025, 0.6980, 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
Below resistance levels 0.7170, 0.7217 short positions are preferable. Long-term bearish trend persists.
Support Levels: 0.7140, 0.7127, 0.7112.0.7100, 0.7025, 0.6980
Resistance Levels: 0.7170, 0.7200, 0.7217, 0.7295

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7220. Take-Profit 0.7140, 0.7127, 0.7112,0.7100, 0.7025, 0.6980
Buy Stop 0.7220. Stop Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7295

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current dynamics
15/04/2019
The dollar fell by the end of last week. On Friday, the DXY dollar index closed with a 0.2% fall, at 96.97. According to the minutes of the March meeting of the American central bank, the Fed leaders are concerned about the slowdown in global economic growth, which threatens to worsen the situation in the US economy. It follows from the protocols that the leaders of the central bank do not see the conditions for a further increase in interest rates.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump reiterated his criticism of the Federal Reserve System, stating that "quantitative tightening was a murderer, the opposite should have been done". On Sunday, Trump tweeted that the economy and the stock market could have grown faster, "if the Fed had done its job properly".
On Monday, the dollar continues to decline, while DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of the European session near the 96.45 mark, 10 points lower than the opening price of the trading day.
On Monday, the publication of important macro data is not planned. Probably, trading in financial markets will be more relaxed than at the end of last week, which was full of important political and economic events.
Investors will also be less active on the eve of the Catholic Easter celebration this Sunday.
Meanwhile, the euro also remains under pressure after the ECB meeting last week. The ECB reported that the rate hikes before next year should not be expected, and the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, warned that the rate of economic growth in Europe this year will continue to decline. Mario Draghi last Wednesday signaled the possibility of implementing new measures to support the European economy in the event of a deterioration in its prospects.

Trading scenarios
Against the background of the weakening dollar, the EUR / USD pair rose sharply last Friday, updating the 3-week high near the 1.1323 mark.
On Monday, the Eurodollar attempted to develop an upward movement, trading in the first half of the trading day above the support level of 1.1300 (EMA50 on the daily chart). Nevertheless, the Eurodollar failed to update the local and Friday maximum.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators turned to short positions on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts.
Return under support level 1.1300 will be a signal for the resumption of short positions.
The breakdown of support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (ЕМА200 per 1-hour chart) will confirm the scenario for the resumption of the EUR / USD decline.
The targets for reducing EUR / USD are at the support levels of 1.1210 (November lows), 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.
The growth scenario will be associated with the updating of the local maximum of 1.1323, which will create prerequisites for a stronger upward correction to the resistance levels of 1.1390 (EMA144), 1.1440 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1270, 1.1255, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1323, 1.1390, 1.1440

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1270, 1.1255, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1330. Stop Loss 1.1270. Take-Profit 1.1370, 1.1390, 1.1440

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Support and Resistance Levels
16/04/2019
"The leadership of the central bank does not see any weighty arguments for adjusting monetary policy in the short term", says the RBA minutes, published Tuesday during the Asian session. After the publication of the minutes from the April meeting of the RBA, the Australian dollar weakened and the AUD / USD dropped by 30 points, to the level of 0.7142, through which the strong short-term support level passes (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts turned to short positions. In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.7142, AUD / USD will move to the support level of 0.7120 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Break of this level will increase the risk of a return to the global bearish trend. In this case, AUD / USD will go towards the support levels of 0.7025, 0.6980, 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
Below resistance levels 0.7170 (ЕМА144), 0.7217 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable.

Support Levels: 0.7142, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7053, 0.7025, 0.6980
Resistance Levels: 0.7170, 0.7200, 0.7217, 0.7295

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7053, 0.7025, 0.6980
Buy Stop 0.7160. Stop Loss 0.7135. Take-Profit 0.7170, 0.7200, 0.7217

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Market Expectations
17/04/2019
On Wednesday, commodity currencies strengthened against the US dollar against the backdrop of favorable statistics from China.
At 12:30 GMT Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada will present data on foreign trade in Canada and data on inflation. Consumer prices in February rose by 1.5% (+ 1.4% in January) in annual terms and the base consumer price index rose by + 1.5%. If the data for March are worse than the previous values, then this will negatively affect the CAD. Data better than the forecast and above the previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar.

Despite the current decline, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3260 (EMA144), 1.3210 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
USD / CAD declined during the Asian session, breaking short-term strong support levels of 1.3350 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3340 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of the local support level of 1.3300 may increase the risks of further USD / CAD decline with targets at the support levels of 1.3260, 1.3210.
The signal for the resumption of purchases will be the return of USD / CAD to the zone above the levels of 1.3340, 1.3350 with growth targets at resistance levels of 1.3450 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3660 ( the highs of 2018), 1.3790 (the highs of 2017).
Support Levels: 1.3320, 1.3340, 1.3300, 1.3260, 1.3210, 1.3155, 1.3090, 1.3045
Resistance Levels: 1.3340, 1.3350, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop Loss 1.3340. Take-Profit 1.3245, 1.3200, 1.3155, 1.3090, 1.3045
Buy Stop 1.3340. Stop Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3370, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
04/18/2019
Weak macro data from Europe and published at the beginning of the European session on Thursday caused a weakening of the Euro and a drop in the EUR / USD pair.
The preliminary PMI indexes for April were lower than expected. Eurozone production PMI was 47.8, which is below the forecast of 47.9. The compound PMI of the Eurozone was 51.3 against the forecast of 51.8.
The data presented increase the likelihood of further easing of the ECB’s monetary policy.

Having broken through a strong support level of 1.1285 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart, as well as a Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD reached a week low near the 1.1243 mark. Breakdown of this local support level will cause further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels of 1.1210 (November lows), 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.
An alternative scenario will be associated with a return to the zone above the resistance level of 1.1300, which will create prerequisites for a stronger upward correction to the resistance levels of 1.1390 (EMA144), 1.1440 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Short positions are preferred.
In the period from 12:30 to 14:00 GMT, important macro data from the US will be published, which will cause an increase in market volatility. Among the published data that should be noted are the preliminary PMI business indices in the USA for April, as well as data on retail sales. Data worse than the forecast will negatively affect the dollar, which will cause its sales and fixation of long positions on it before the long weekend, associated with the meeting of the Catholic Easter.

Support Levels: 1.1250, 1.1240, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1390, 1.1440

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1240. Stop Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1290. Stop Loss 1.1240. Take-Profit 1.1320, 1.1390, 1.1440

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Support and Resistance Levels
19/04/2019
The US dollar strengthened sharply last Thursday. The strengthening of the dollar was triggered by the fall of the euro on weak macro statistics, which came from the Eurozone at the beginning of the European session on Thursday. In the afternoon, the dollar continued to strengthen on positive statistics from the US.
The AUD / USD pair dropped on Thursday by 0.44% to 0.7148. Financial market participants fear that European problems may spread to other regions, weakening demand for commodities.
Nevertheless, the indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts turned to long positions. The resumption of corrective growth can direct the pair AUD / USD to resistance levels of 0.7170, 0.7217. However, growth above the level of 0.7217 is unlikely.
Below resistance levels 0.7170 (ЕМА144), 0.7217 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.7142, AUD / USD will move to the support level of 0.7127 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Break of this level will increase the risk of a return to the global bearish trend. In this case, AUD / USD will go towards the support levels of 0.7025, 0.6980, 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
Support Levels: 0.7142, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7053, 0.7025, 0.6980
Resistance Levels: 0.7170, 0.7200, 0.7217, 0.7295

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7053, 0.7025, 0.6980
Buy Stop 0.7230. Stop Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7295

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: Current Dynamics
04/22/2019
In view of the celebration of Catholic Easter (today is the Second Day of Catholic Easter - Easter Monday), the activity of participants in the financial market is small, and the exchanges and banks in Catholic countries are closed.
However, it is worth noting the sharp increase in oil prices from the opening of today's trading day on the background of the news regarding the possible cancellation of indulgences by the US on Iranian sanctions.
At the beginning of the European trading session, the price of WTI crude oil is near the mark of 65.46 dollars per barrel.
Against the background of geopolitical risks that are gaining momentum in the supply of oil, the rally in oil prices may continue. A further rise in oil prices is likely, despite the achievement of new local maxima.

Long-term positive dynamics persist above the key support level of 59.50 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart, Fibonacci 50% level of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 level to the support level near the 42.14 mark). Mostly upward trend in the price of WTI crude oil. Long positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 63.50, 61.70, 59.50, 56.50, 55.40
Resistance Levels: 66.00, 68.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 62.80. Stop Loss 66.20. Take-Profit 61.70, 59.50, 56.50, 55.40
Buy Stop 66.20. Stop Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 68.00, 73.00, 76.00

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: stock index growth slowed
04/23/2019
Current situation
After many days of growth today, the major US stock indices are trading in a narrow range, while maintaining a positive trend.
On Monday, the indices received an additional positive impetus due to the growth of shares in the oil and gas sector due to the jump in oil prices at the beginning of the week.
Oil prices rose sharply after the White House announced that it cancels exceptions to the sanctions on imports of Iranian oil.
Nevertheless, the growth of the indices in recent days has slowed. Investors are waiting for new drivers. On Friday, data on US GDP for the 1st quarter will be published. It is expected that GDP growth slowed down in the 1st quarter to +1.8% versus +2.2% in the 4th quarter of last year. This is negative information for the stock market.
If the data will be even weaker, then this may cause a fall in stock indices.

On Tuesday, the S&P500 is trading in a narrow range near the level of 2905.0. Long-term positive dynamics remains above the key support level of 2753.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
However, any negative macroeconomic information or weak reporting by large American companies, which is expected later this week, may cause a decrease in indices.
The first signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 2898.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 2898.0, 2883.0, 2860.0, 2830.0, 2753.0, 2676.0
Resistance Levels: 2918.0, 2936.0

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 2879.0. Stop Loss 2918.0. Objectives 2860.0, 2830.0, 2753.0, 2676.0
Buy Stop 2918.0. Stop Loss 2879.0. Objectives 2936.0

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Market Expectations
24/04/2019
On Wednesday, the US dollar continued to strengthen after last week's strong data on US retail sales and after the publication of weak Australian inflation figures on Wednesday, which caused a sharp drop in AUD.
On Wednesday, the decision on rates is made by the Bank of Canada. It will be published at 14:00 (GMT). It is expected that the rate of the Bank of Canada will remain at the same level of 1.5%.
In March, the Bank of Canada did not change its monetary policy. Earlier this month, the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz again touched upon the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, recalling that "in March, following the next meeting of the Bank of Canada, we stated that the economic outlook still requires maintaining interest rates below the neutral range".
The April report of Statistics Canada pointed to a slowdown in the Canadian economy in 4Q. Canada's GDP declined in December by -0.1% and grew in the 4th quarter by only 0.4% (the forecast was +1.2% and +2.0% in the 3rd quarter).
In their accompanying statement and report on changes in monetary policy, representatives of the Bank of Canada will explain the position of the bank and assess the current economic situation in the country. The hard tone of the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada regarding rising inflation and the prospects for further monetary tightening will cause a strengthening of the Canadian dollar. If the Bank of Canada signals to extend the period for maintaining a soft monetary policy or the possibility of a rate cut, the Canadian currency will decline.

USD / CAD increased during the Asian session. In case of a successful breakdown of the resistance level 1.3450 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700) USD / CAD will go towards the resistance levels 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs of the year).
Sales can be renewed after the breakdown of short-term support levels of 1.3376 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3352 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) with targets at the support levels of 1.3272, 1.3220. So far, long positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3352, 1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3220
Resistance Levels: 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.3350. Stop Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3220
Buy Stop 1.3460. Stop Loss 1.3350. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
04/25/2019
While disappointing macro data continue to come from Europe and from other countries with the largest global economy, indicating slower economic growth and inflation, more and more investors prefer the dollar.
On Wednesday, the IFO published another block of macro data for Germany, according to which the German business sentiment index IFO in April was 99.2 against 99.6 in March and the forecast of 99.9.
“The German economy continues to lose momentum", says IFO President Clemens Fust.
The slowdown of the German economy, in turn, raises concerns about the weak growth of the entire economy of the Eurozone, and the European Central Bank may be required to further mitigate monetary policy.
On Wednesday, the EUR / USD pair reached another multi-month low near the 1.1140 mark, and on Thursday its decline continues. At the beginning of the European session, the Eurodollar trades near the 1.1130 mark.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is growing, and futures for the DXY dollar index is trading at the beginning of the European session, near the 97.96 mark, 90 points higher than the opening price of the current week.

If the US GDP index for Q1, which will be published on Friday at 12:30 GMT, coincides with the forecast (+ 2.1%) or turns out to be better than it, then the strengthening of the dollar and the fall in EUR / USD will continue. Otherwise, we can expect a rebound of EUR / USD and the beginning of an upward correction with targets at resistance levels of 1.1190, 1.1210, 1.1230 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1270 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23, 6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014).
Further growth of EUR / USD is unlikely. Most likely, further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels of 1.1100, 1.1000.
Support Levels: 1.1120, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1190, 1.1210, 1.1230, 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1370, 1.1425

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1120, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1210. Stop Loss 1.1170. Take-Profit 1.1230, 1.1270, 1.1285

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
04/26/2019
As reported at the start of the Sydney trading session on Friday (22: 445 GMT) by the Statistics Bureau of New Zealand, New Zealand’s foreign trade surplus in March was 922 million New Zealand dollars against a deficit of -68 New Zealand dollars in February (the forecast was 131 million New Zealand dollars). New Zealand exports rose by NZ $ 99 million, while imports declined by NZ $ 1 million.
The publication of positive statistics on foreign trade led to the growth of the New Zealand dollar, which also strengthened against the USD.
However, the focus of traders on Friday is the publication of data on US GDP (at 12:30 GMT). It is expected that GDP grew in Q1 by 2.1% (against a growth of + 2.2% in the previous quarter).
GDP data can support the dollar and lower expectations for the Fed to cut rates in December 2019. But the dollar may fall sharply if GDP data turns out to be much weaker than the forecast. The likelihood of such a scenario cannot be excluded, since usually growth in the 1st quarter is the weakest for the year.
In this case, profit will begin to be fixed in long positions for USD, which will cause its decline at the end of the trading week.

NZD / USD is growing for the second day in a row, developing an upward correction after a significant decline this month. A break of the nearest short-term strong resistance level of 0.6666 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further rise to the resistance level of 0.6745 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and to the balance zone near the key level of 0.6800 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with the prospect of further growth to resistance levels 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014; the lows of the wave are near the level of 0.6260), 0.6935, 0.6980 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7060 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
An alternative scenario implies a breakdown of the local support level of 0.6575 and a decline to the support levels of 0.6510, 0.6430.
Support levels: 0.6630, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6660, 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: Current Dynamics
04/29/2019
On Monday, oil prices are rising again after a strong fall the day before. Investors were frightened by Donald Trump’s statement on Friday that he once again offered OPEC to lower oil prices. “Gasoline prices are falling. I called OPEC and said that we need to lower them (oil prices). You (OPEC) need to lower them”, Trump said.
Earlier, President Trump repeatedly appealed to OPEC (on his Twitter account) to increase production and thereby help lower prices. And every time the oil market reacted to this by falling quotes. Also happened this time.
However, Saudi Arabia refused to give an obligation to increase production, and OPEC reported that Trump no longer turned to this organization with new calls with an increase in oil supplies.
According to Baker Hughes’s Friday data, the number of drilling rigs in the United States last week fell by 20 and reached an annual minimum of 805. These data, indicating slowing production in the United States, along with risks of disruptions in oil supplies from Libya and Venezuela, should also support oil quotes.
On Wednesday, May 1 (14:30 GMT) the next weekly report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy will be published. Stocks are expected to increase by 2.093 million barrels. This is negative information for oil prices. If the forecast is not confirmed, then the price of oil expects another wave of growth.
Since November, Iranian oil exports have declined from 2.3 million barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels per day in March. The new US approach to solving the problem of reducing the export of Iranian oil (last Monday, the White House announced that the US will not extend temporary permits to import Iranian oil, which expires on May 2) could trigger a new reduction in Iranian oil exports, from 1 million barrels per day up to 500,000 barrels per day.

On Friday, the price dropped sharply, breaking through the strong support level of 63.50 (Fibonacci level 61.8%). Earlier, the price of WTI crude oil reached $66.50 per barrel, a new multi-month high.
The price maintains a positive trend, being above the key support level of 59.50 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart, Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the support level near the 42.14 mark). From a strong short-term support level of 61.95 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) a rebound and renewed growth is possible.
Only a breakdown of support levels of 56.50 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) will revive the bearish trend.
Above the support level of 61.95 long positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 61.95, 59.50, 56.75, 55.40
Resistance Levels: 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 61.60. Stop Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 59.50, 56.75, 55.40
Buy Stop 63.60. Stop Loss 61.80. Take-Profit 64.40, 66.50, 68.00

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Before Important Events
30/04/2019
According to data published at the beginning of today's Asian session, the official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector in China fell to 54.3 in April from 54.8 in March. The index for the non-production sphere reflects the dynamics of activity in such areas as retail, air travel, software development, real estate market and construction. The decline was due to a weakening of demand and activity in construction.
The official PMI for the manufacturing sector in China also fell in April, to 50.1 from 50.5 in March. The decline in the index was due to the weakening of production and domestic demand.
According to Caixin, PMI for China's manufacturing sector in April was 50.2 against 50.8 in March. Unlike the official index, which reflects the dynamics of activity of large state-owned companies, PMI Caixin pays more attention to the status of private producers.
The data presented caused a short-term strengthening of the US dollar, primarily against the RMB and commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar.
In the course of the European session, the dollar is falling again. Investors are switching their attention to future important events. On Wednesday (18:00 GMT) the decision of the Fed on the interest rate will be published, and on Friday (12:30 GMT) - data from the US labor market.
Some economists expect the Fed to cut rates in December due to lower US inflation rates. Comments by Fed officials and labor market data will provide insight into the current state of the US economy and give the dollar a new impulse, either for growth or for decline.

Despite the current decline, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3280 (EMA144), 1.3230 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The breakdown of local resistance levels of 1.3480, 1.3520 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1.3660 (highs of 2018), 1.3790 (highs of 2017).
Support Levels: 1.3433, 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3230
Resistance Levels: 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3425. Stop-Loss 1.3490. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3230
Buy Stop 1.3490. Stop Loss 1.3425. Take-Profit 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
Eurodollar continues to decline. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, EUR / USD is trading at 1.3020. Pending publication (12:30 GMT) of a report from the US labor market, trading volumes are declining. If the report (average hourly wage, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, the unemployment rate) will be better than the forecast (+ 0.3% (against + 0.1% in March) / 180,000 (against 196,000 in March ) / 3.8% (against 3.8% in March)), then the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of EUR / USD will continue.
The alternative scenario implies a rebound and the beginning of an upward correction of EUR / USD with targets at resistance levels of 1.1190, 1.1200 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1210, 1.1244 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). A more distant goal of the correction is resistance levels of 1.1255 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900 started in May 2014), 1.1360 (ЕМА144), 1.1410 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Below resistance level 1.1285 short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1190, 1.1200, 1.1210, 1.1244, 1.1285, 1.1360, 1.1410

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1220. Stop-Loss 1.1155. Take-Profit 1.1244, 1.1285, 1.1360, 1.1410

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: current dynamics
06/05/2019
US President Donald Trump once again shocked the markets with his statement. On Sunday, he tweeted: “For 10 months, China paid the US $ 50 billion in high-tech products at a rate of 25% and 10% in other products worth $ 200 billion. These payments partially explain our huge economic success. These 10% will increase to 25% on Friday". He also wrote about the imminent imposition of duties in the amount of 25% on imports of goods that were not subject to duties from China in the amount of $ 325 billion.
Chinese yuan and Chinese stock indexes collapsed at the opening of the trading day on Monday.
Quotes of gold again crawled up. The pair XAU / USD at the beginning of the European session was trading near the mark of 1282.00, above the key support level of 1275.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Above the key support levels of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1275.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward trend prevails. The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).
An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the support level of 1268.00 and
decrease of XAU / USD in the direction of the important support level of 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50%). Breakdown of this level will return XAU / USD to the global bearish trend with targets at support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows).
Support Levels: 1279.00, 1277.00, 1275.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1288.00, 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1274.00. Stop Loss 1288.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1288.00. Stop Loss 1274.00. Take-Profit 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
05/07/2019
On Sunday, US President Donald Trump unpleasantly surprised investors with two Twitter messages that by Friday duties on Chinese goods would be increased. Trump's statements provoked a sharp drop in many global markets.
US Trade Representative Robert Lightheiser stated that in recent days "China has retreated from its promises". According to Lightheiser, duties on Chinese goods will be increased on Friday, as Trump warned.
The economy of New Zealand is closely connected with the economy of China, which is the largest buyer of raw materials and food (primarily meat and dairy) goods from New Zealand. Therefore, any negative information from China also negatively affects the NZD quotes.
On Tuesday, NZD / USD declines again after falling the previous day. The next meeting of the RBNZ will be held on Wednesday, and the decision on the rate of the RBNZ will be published on Wednesday at 02:00 (GMT). Probably, the rate will be reduced by 0.25% to 1.5%.
Currently, NZD / USD is again attempting to break the local support level of 0.6600. Its breakthrough may trigger a further decline to support levels of 0.6510, 0.6430.
So far, short positions look preferable.
Support levels: 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6660, 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6590. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Current Situation
05/08/2019
In April, the S&P500 updated the annual and absolute maximum near the 2959.0 mark. On Wednesday, the decline in the S&P500 continues despite the fact that, overall, the positive trend continues.
While the S&P500 index is trading above the key support level of 2770.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive trend remains. Long positions are preferred above this level.
Nevertheless, negative information, first of all, the negative course of negotiations between US and Chinese trade representatives, as well as negative economic news from the US, will cause a decrease in indices, and, as the worst-case scenario, will provoke another wave of decline.
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, 4-hour charts turned to the short positions, signaling a likely continuation of the decline.
On Wednesday, the publication of important macro data is not planned, and Europe celebrates Victory Day. The decline in world and US indices may continue, while representatives of China and the United States will seek a solution to the situation.
Support Levels: 2860.0, 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0
Resistance Levels: 2885.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 2858.0. Stop Loss 2902.0. Objectives 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0
Buy Stop 2902.0. Stop Loss 2858.0. Objectives 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD remains in a long-term bearish trend.
05/10/2019
On Friday, the United States raised duties on imports of Chinese goods in the amount of $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%, as previously promised by US President Donald Trump. He also said on Thursday that the US will introduce new duties in the amount of 25% on the import of Chinese goods in the amount of $ 325 billion. Thus, all goods imported from China to the United States will be subject to duties of 25%.
The foreign exchange market, on the whole, on Friday rather restrainedly reacted to this news, since it was already mainly taken into account in prices.
Meanwhile, the US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and the country's finance minister Stephen Mnuchin met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and agreed to continue the discussion on Friday. This allows us to preserve hope for further progress in the negotiations and the fact that both parties will come to a solution to the conflict.
From the news today, investors will also pay attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data on consumer inflation in the United States. It is expected that the consumer price index rose in April by + 0.4% (+ 2.1% in annual terms). If the data turns out to be better than the forecast, then the USD will strengthen, including with respect to AUD. With the escalation of international trade wars, the American dollar is in demand and looks more preferable than AUD.
AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.7000 mark.
Below resistance levels 0.7011 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7065 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) short positions are preferable.
Breakdown of the local support level of 0.6980 will increase the risks of further decline towards support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
Support Levels: 0.6980, 0.6910, 0.6830
Resistance Levels: 0.7011, 0.7065, 0.7145, 0.7190

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7020. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7020. Stop Loss 0.6970. Take-Profit 0.7065, 0.7145, 0.7190