Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
09/07/2019
The dollar continues to strengthen after the publication on Friday of a strong report on the US labor market, which eased the pressure on the Federal Reserve System in the need to set lower interest rates. Last Friday, the EUR / USD pair broke through strong support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900 level that started in May 2014), 1.1270 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) and continued to decline. On Tuesday at the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1200 mark, remaining under pressure from the strengthening dollar.
According to the results of a poll conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday, inflation expectations for the year and three years ahead in June reached 2.7% versus 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively in May.
The rise in inflation expectations also eases the pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. Now market participants will closely follow the speeches of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress on the topic of economics and monetary policy.
If he shows a tendency toward a softer monetary policy, then the dollar may react by lowering. And, conversely, Powell’s tough position will cause a further strengthening of the dollar and increase the credibility of the Fed, especially amid Trump’s growing criticism of the Fed.
Powell's speeches are scheduled for Tuesday at 12:45 (GMT) and Wednesday at 14:00.
At the same time, recent comments by the leaders of the European Central Bank point to an early easing of monetary policy. It is possible that the ECB in July will hint at the possibility of lowering interest rates. This may happen in September with the start of a new bond purchase program worth 630 billion euros.
In general, the Eurodollar global bearish trend prevails. Any growth will be limited by resistance levels of 1.1350, 1.1410 (monthly maximum). Below the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions with targets located at the support levels of 1.1180 (June lows) and 1.1125 (Lows of the year) are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1240. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1240. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
10/07/2019
Today is full of important economic events.
At 14:00 (GMT) the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate will be published, which is expected to remain at the same level of 1.75%.
At 18:00 (GMT) scheduled publication of the minutes of the June meeting of the Committee on operations on the Fed open market.
However, the focus of investors will be on Powell’s presentation to the US Congress, which will begin at 14:00.
After the release of strong data on the labor market last Friday, many economists believe that the Fed can now postpone the decision on the need for additional measures. If Powell signals about the probability of lowering interest rates by 0.5% already on July 31, the dollar may sharply decline, and EUR / USD will fly above 1.1300, in the direction of recent highs near the 1.1410 mark.
If he hints that the Fed is not going to lower interest rates before September, then EUR / USD will resume the decline and head towards annual lows near the 1.1125 mark.
Powell most likely favors a 25 basis point decrease in interest rates in July. This decision is expected and already included in the price. After some strengthening, EUR / USD is likely to decline to a zone below the support level of 1.1200.
However, when trading today, one should take into account a sharp increase in volatility during his speech. In this situation, technical analysis fades into the background.
However, below the resistance levels of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1410 (June highs), short positions are preferable.
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). EUR / USD growth above this level will be limited by resistance levels of 1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445 (from a technical point of view).
Support Levels: 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1245. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
07/11/2019
Shortly after the start of the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the Congress on Wednesday, the dollar fell sharply. Powell’s comments reinforced market participants ’confidence that the Fed would cut interest rates already at the July meeting, although Powell declined to directly answer the question of such a scenario. He stressed that the prospects for the US economy in recent weeks have not improved, noting that the sustainability of inflation weakness "is an argument in favor of a more stimulating monetary policy".
EUR / USD rose on Wednesday by 43 points, closely approaching the resistance level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Today Eurodollar growth continued. Nevertheless, despite the growth after yesterday's Powell performance, below the resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains. The signal for sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
In the alternative scenario, EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with intermediate targets at resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1305 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart). A rise above resistance level 1.1350 is unlikely. World central banks are alarmed by threats to economic growth from tensions in trade relations. The ECB, like several central banks in other countries, is also leaning towards policy easing, although it has less room for more aggressive easing.
Powell’s second appearance is scheduled for today (14:00 GMT). The trigger for reducing the Eurodollar today can be the publication at 11:30 (GMT) of the minutes from the June meeting of the ECB. Also from the news today we should pay attention to the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of a whole block of important macro statistics from the United States, among which are consumer price indices. Their growth is expected in June by + 0.2% (against + 0.1% in May). If the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast, the dollar can partially compensate for yesterday's losses and strengthen, including against the euro.
Support Levels: 1.1260, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1250. Stop Loss 1.1285. Take-Profit 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1285. Stop Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
12/07/2019
Despite the rise during the Asian session, EUR / USD declines again at the beginning of the European session on Friday. The minutes of the June meeting of the European Central Bank published on Thursday showed that, due to low inflation, the Central Bank management is considering additional ways to stimulate the Eurozone economy. Judging by the protocols, the leadership of the Central Bank is preparing to reduce the key interest rate or restart the bond redemption program by 2.6 trillion euros.
At the same time, the dollar also remains under pressure after the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
He hinted that the leadership of the Fed is mostly inclined to ease monetary policy. Powell reiterated that the Fed intends to "act in an appropriate manner to support economic growth".
Thus, the EUR / USD pair is in the grip of expectations of easing in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB. At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1260 mark.
Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
A signal for sales with targets located at support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of a year) will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on a 1-hour chart).
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with an intermediate goal at resistance 1.1305 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
A more aggressive scenario involves the return of EUR / USD to the zone of resistance levels
1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445.
In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285, short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1260, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1245. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1280. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
15/07/2019
The US dollar continues to decline, while investors remain impressed by the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Last week, Powell signaled the Fed’s readiness to lower interest rates. Investors are waiting for such a decrease already at the Fed meeting on July 30-31. As Powell put it, the purpose of such a decline is to protect the American economy from the risks associated with a slowdown in global economic growth and the uncertainties created by conflicts in international trade.
Last Friday, another Fed official, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a member of the FOMC, Charles Evans, also spoke in favor of lowering interest rates in order to counteract inflation weakness. Evans expects two cuts in the federal funds key interest rate this year.
In the wake of the weakening of the US dollar, the NZD / USD pair broke through on Monday the key resistance level of 0.6710 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and continued to grow at the beginning of the European session, reaching another strong resistance level of 0.6735 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
In case of consolidation in this zone, the growth of NZD / USD may continue towards the resistance levels of 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction in the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8820, which began in July 2014), 0.6910 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 0.7000 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
The signal for sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 0.6685 (EMA144 on the daily chart). Immediate targets of decline are at support levels of 0.6664 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6633 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The trigger for further NZD / USD movement may be the publication (at 22:45 GMT) of the consumer price index for New Zealand for the 2nd quarter, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation. If the forecast is confirmed (+ 0.6% against + 0.1% in the 1st quarter and + 1.7% against + 1.5% in the 1st quarter in annual terms)
the New Zealand dollar is likely to strengthen, including against the US dollar.
Levels of support: 0.6710, 0.6685, 0.6664, 0.6633, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6735, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6910

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6680. Stop Loss 0.6745. Take-Profit 0.6664, 0.6633, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/16/2019
The GBP / USD pair failed to develop an upward corrective movement above the short-term resistance level of 1.2540 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), and on Tuesday fell to 1.2410, resuming the decline in the global downtrend.
Probably, market participants have already taken into account in the price reduction of the Fed rate on July 31 and again focused on the problems around Brexit.
Boris Johnson, who is Theresa May’s most likely successor as prime minister, reiterated on Monday that he was ready for a tough Brexit on October 31, when the UK should finally withdraw from the EU, unless an agreement is reached between the parties.
The pound was also unable to get support after the publication on Tuesday of positive data, according to which, the UK labor market remains in force, despite the slowdown in the economy.
Below the key resistance level of 1.2900 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) long-term negative dynamics prevail. Short positions with a long-term goal, located at the support level of 1.2000, are preferable (2017 lows and Fibonacci 0% level of the correction to a decline of the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
In the alternative scenario, the corrective growth of GBP / USD may resume, and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2540, GBP / USD will go to resistance levels of 1.2630 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 1.2765 (June highs, February lows).
Above the resistance levels 1.2765, 1.2800 (upper line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) growth is unlikely.
At 17:00 will begin the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Last week, he unambiguously hinted at the inclination of the Fed leadership to ease monetary policy. Now investors will be waiting for new signals from him in relation to the Fed’s actions at a meeting on July 30 - 31. If he does not touch this topic, the reaction to his speech will be weak.
Support Levels: 1.2400, 1.2365
Resistance Levels: 1.2480, 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2520. Take-Profit 1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2300
Buy Stop 1.2520. Stop Loss 1.2420. Take-Profit 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
07/17/2019
Published on Tuesday, the US Department of Commerce data exceeded market expectations. Compared to May, retail sales in June increased by 0.4% and 3.4% (in annual terms). The forecast assumed an increase of 0.1%. In April and May, sales rose 0.4%. This growth has been going on for four months in a row and indicates consumer confidence in the country's economy.
Consumer spending is the main source of growth for the US economy, as they account for two thirds of GDP.
After the release of new data on retail sales, the prospects for a drastic reduction in interest rates have weakened. All three key reports issued after the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee for the Fed, namely, reports on employment, consumer prices and retail sales, were very strong.
Market participants still take into account the rate cut at the Fed meeting on July 30 - 31. However, the probability of lowering interest rates by 50 basis points has decreased, and lowering the rate by 25 or 10 basis points, which would be appropriate after Powell’s statements, is already taken into account in the dollar quotes.
Thus, the space for a further fall in the dollar has decreased. Also take into account the propensity of other central banks to soften policies.
From the news for today, which could significantly increase the volatility in the foreign exchange market, we are waiting for the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on Canada.
As expected, the core consumer price index (Core CPI) rose in June by 0.1% (+ 2.6% in annual terms). This is positive data that will strengthen CAD when confirming the forecast. Conversely, weak values and indexes worse than forecast will have a negative impact on CAD. Data worse than the forecast can be a driver for the corrective growth of the pair USD / CAD.
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3071 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). The growth target in the upward correction is resistance levels of 1.3185 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3250 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
In the event of a breakdown of the resistance level, 1.3250 USD / CAD will head towards the resistance levels of 1.3520 (2019 highs), 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs), which will indicate a full recovery of the bullish trend.
Breakdown of the local support level of 1.3045 will direct USD / CAD towards the lower boundary of the downward channel on the daily chart and at 1.2975.
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2975, 1.2850, 1.2740
Resistance Levels: 1.3071, 1.3140, 1.3185, 1.3250, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.3035. Stop Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3015, 1.2975, 1.2850, 1.2740
Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop Loss 1.3035. Take-Profit 1.3140, 1.3185, 1.3250, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/18/2019
Despite the correctional growth that began in the middle of last month, AUD / USD continues to trade below key resistance levels of 0.7050 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7100 (EMA200 on the daily chart), remaining in a long-term bearish trend. The last global wave of decline began in July 2014 from 0.9500. The minima of this wave and of 2016 are located near the level of 0.6830. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 0.6980 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Growth above the resistance levels of 0.7050, 0.7100 is unlikely. Below these key resistance levels, short positions remain preferred. Mostly negative trend.
Intermediate reduction targets are located at support levels of 0.6910 (July lows), 0.6830 (minimums of the global decline wave, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500); long-term - at around 0.6770 (2019 lows).
Australia's leading labor market indicators point to a further slowdown in employment growth. It is likely that at this pace that testifies more about a slowdown than about the growth of the Australian labor market, the RBA leadership may go for a further easing of monetary conditions.
Unemployment remains at 5.2%, which is much higher than the forecast of the RBA, which assumed that in the 2nd quarter it will be 5%. Earlier, the RBA stated that they would like to see a fall in unemployment to 4.5% or less, as this will help accelerate wage growth and inflation rates.
From the news today, which can increase volatility in the foreign exchange market, including in the pair AUD / USD, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of the macro statistics block from the USA. Weekly data on the number of unemployment claims in the US can cause an increase in volatility in trading in USD, if they are very different from the predicted values, especially for the worse.
Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Resistance Levels: 0.7050, 0.7100

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7060. Take-Profit 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Buy Stop 0.7060. Stop Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7100

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI Oil: Current Trends and Recommendations
07/19/2019
Despite a report by the US Department of Energy, published last Wednesday and showing a decline in oil reserves in the country, oil prices dropped sharply. Oil reserves in the US declined last week by 3.1 million barrels to 455.9 million barrels. However, it is still about 4% above the average 5-year value for this time of year.
The data of the Ministry of Energy also showed an unexpected increase in gasoline reserves by 3.6 million barrels and an increase in distillate stocks by 5.7 million barrels, to 136.2 million barrels.
The growth of stocks of petroleum products, according to economists, is due to lower demand in the United States and a decline in exports.
On Thursday, WTI quotes fell to 54.72. In total, since the beginning of the week, the price of WTI crude oil has lost approximately 7.5% by now.
On Friday, oil prices rebounded slightly after a sharp fall the day before. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, WTI crude oil traded near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel.
Nevertheless, due to the US-China trade conflict and due to the increase in the volume of shale oil production in the US, oil prices are likely to continue to decline.
On Friday, oil market participants will pay attention to the report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States, to 784 units at the moment. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices. Publication of this report is scheduled for 17:00 (GMT).
The price of WTI crude oil has broken through key support levels of 58.80 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 56.80 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) and continues to decline, trading on Friday near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the European session.
Negative dynamics prevail, short positions are preferable.
Further decline will mean the return of oil prices into a bearish trend.
In the alternative scenario, the growth and price fixing in the zone above the resistance levels of 58.80, 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50%) will speak about the resumption of the bull trend. The signal for this will be the breakdown of short-term resistance levels of 57.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 58.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support levels: 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 56.80, 57.65, 58.00, 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 55.30. Stop-Loss 58.40. Take-Profit 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 58.40. Stop-Loss 55.30. Take-Profit 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/22/2019
Last Thursday, the dollar fell sharply. The reason was the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams. In his opinion, the Fed should take prompt action when signs of a weakening economy appear. Investors took his words as a signal to a potential rate cut in July by half a percentage point.
However, a further weakening of the dollar did not occur. Last Friday, the Fed said that the talk about lowering the key rate by half a percentage point and other topics that the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, said on Thursday, more relate to theoretical assumptions during periods of obvious contraction of the economy. Recent economic data do not indicate the risk of a sharp downturn in the US economy, according to Fed officials.
The rate cut by 0.25% at the meeting on July 30 - 31 was mainly already taken into account in prices, and the probability of a more aggressive easing of the Fed’s monetary policy decreased.
Meanwhile, investors will follow the ECB meeting. On Thursday (at 11:45 GMT) the ECB decision on rates will be published. It is expected that the leaders of the ECB at this meeting so far will keep the current monetary policy unchanged, but may declare a propensity for a softer policy.
The ECB press conference will also begin on Thursday, at 12:30 (GMT).
At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD is trading in a narrow range and near the 1.1215 mark. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the local support level of 1.1195 (July lows).
Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), short positions look preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1241, 1.1256, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1410, 1.1445

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100
Buy Stop 1.1245. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1256, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/23/2019
In the middle of the month, the NZD / USD broke through the key resistance level of 0.6715 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and reached a 4-month high near the mark of 0.6790.
The reason for the growth of the pair was mainly the weakening of the US dollar after the Fed leaders expressed a propensity for a softer monetary policy.
Nevertheless, the reduction in the Fed rate at the meeting on July 30 - 31 by 0.25% has already been taken into account, mainly in prices.
If, on the part of the Fed’s management before this date, there is no further wave of verbal intervention regarding the desirability of a lower interest rate, then a further decline in the US dollar is unlikely.
This is well demonstrated by the US dollar index DXY, which is growing today for the third day in a row. DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of today's European session near the 97.20 mark, 40 points higher than the closing price last Friday.
At the same time, the slowdown in the global economy and the increase in import duties negatively affect the export-oriented New Zealand economy. The ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China makes market participants cautious about prospects.
Today, NZD / USD has been falling for the 3rd day in a row, trading above the key support level of 0.6715 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
After the breakdown of the support level of 0.6690 (EMA144 on the daily chart), short positions will again be relevant with the targets of decline at the support levels of 0.6665 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6620.
More distant reduction targets are located at support levels of 0.6490 (2019 lows), 0.6430 (2018 lows), 0.6260 (0% Fibonacci level and minimums of the global decline of the pair from 0.8820 mark).
The signal for the resumption of purchases will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 0.6753 (ЕМА200 on the 15-minute chart) with targets at the resistance levels of 0.6790, 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6%).
Volatility in the NZD may sharply increase at 10:45 pm (GMT), when data on New Zealand's foreign trade balance for June will be published, and if the data differ greatly from the forecast values.
So far, above the support level of 0.6715, the positive dynamics of NZD / USD remains.
Support levels: 0.6715, 0.6690, 0.6665, 0.6620, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6753, 0.6790, 0.6865, 0.6910

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6680. Stop Loss 0.6755. Take-Profit 0.6665, 0.6620, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6755. Stop Loss 0.6680. Take-Profit 0.6790, 0.6865, 0.6920

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/24/2019
On Wednesday, EUR / USD declines for the fourth day in a row. Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). A strong level that holds EUR / USD from a more significant correction growth is the resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014). In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1285, EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with the intermediate goal at the resistance level of 1.1300 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
A more aggressive scenario involves the return of EUR / USD to the zone of resistance levels 1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445. However, this is an unlikely scenario.
In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285, only short positions should be considered.
The PMI purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector in Germany, published on Wednesday, fell to a minimum of 84.1 in 84 months in July from 45.0 in June. The accelerated decline in industrial production in Germany indicates a growing recession risk in this country with the largest economy in Europe.
Investors expect the ECB at its next meeting on Thursday to not change its monetary policy, but Mario Draghi is likely to set the stage for easing monetary policy later, in September or November.
Expectations of such a decision by the ECB put strong pressure on the euro. The publication of the ECB decision on rates will be held on Thursday (at 11:45 GMT), the ECB press conference will begin at 12:30.
Obviously, before these events, the euro and the EUR / USD pair will remain under pressure.
Support Levels: 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1030
Resistance Levels: 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1215, 1.1248, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1410, 1.1445

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1125. Stop Loss 1.1160. Take-Profit 1.1100, 1.1030
Buy Stop 1.1160. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1215, 1.1248, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/25/2019
In anticipation of easing monetary policy by the world's largest central banks, global stock indices are rising. Gold quotes are also rising. In addition to expectations of easing monetary policy, primarily from the Fed, the rise in gold prices is stimulated by the preservation of geopolitical tensions and the risks of a slowdown in the global economy against the backdrop of international trade conflicts.
Today, the ECB meeting is in the center of attention of traders. The ECB rate decision will be published at 11:45 (GMT), and the ECB press conference will begin at 12:30. It is widely expected that the ECB will keep its monetary policy unchanged today. More interest to traders will be the press conference. It is highly likely that the head of the bank, Mario Draghi, announces a reduction in the ECB interest rate in September and, possibly, in November, as well as a restart of the quantitative easing program in the amount of 2.6 trillion euros in December.
During this period of time (11:45 - 12:30 GMT) a sharp increase in volatility is expected in the entire financial market, including in gold quotes.
Last week, the XAU / USD pair reached a new 6-year high near the mark of 1452.00.
The signal for short-term sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 1420.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with the target at the support levels of 1394.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1380.00 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). Despite a slight decrease in quotations (to the current mark of 1426.00), the bullish trend of gold remains.
Above support levels 1394.00, 1380.00 long positions are preferable. A signal for purchases will be the breakdown of local resistance levels of 1440.00, 1452.00. The breakdown of the resistance level of 1485.00 (Fibonacci 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00) will confirm the completion of the corrective decline and the resumption of price growth.
Support Levels: 1420.00, 1394.00, 1380.00, 1357.00, 1346.00, 1324.00, 1315.00, 1298.00, 1278.00, 1268.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1440.00, 1452.00, 1485.00

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1413.00. Stop-Loss 1431.00. Take-Profit 1394.00, 1380.00
Buy Stop 1431.00. Stop Loss 1413.00. Take-Profit 1440.00, 1452.00, 1485.00

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Current dynamics before the Fed meeting
07/29/2019
Expectations of easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and positive macro statistics coming from the United States are pushing major US stock indexes to new heights.
Last week, the S&P500 index updated its record high near the 3028.0 mark after the US Department of Commerce released a report, according to which GDP grew in the 2nd by +2.1% (annualized) after +3.1% in the 1st quarter, with a forecast of +2.0%. At the same time, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy, in the 2nd quarter grew at the highest rate since the end of 2017, reaching +4.3%.
Trump again lashed out at the Fed after the publication of GDP data, calling the US central bank "a burden hanging on our neck", although GDP growth, in his opinion, was "not bad, given" the Fed's policy.
At the same time, the GDP report did not affect expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at the meeting July 30 - 31, given the continuing risks of a downturn in the global economy and the need to achieve the target inflation rate.
Interest for investors will be the accompanying statements by the Fed leadership and a press conference following a meeting of the central bank. If Jerome Powell signals a propensity to lower the rate in September or before the end of the year, in this case, US stock indexes will accelerate their growth.
Since the opening of today's trading day, the S&P500 is trading in a narrow range near the 3020.0 mark.
Above support levels 2840.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and 2335.0 mark), the bullish trend of the S&P500 remains.
The signal for sales and the start of a downward correction will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 3004.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with targets at the support levels of 2965.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart and highs of May), 2937.0 (2018 highs).
So far, long positions are preferred. However, it is also likely that the S&P500 will remain in the current range until the end of the Wednesday when the Fed’s decision and plans are known.
Support Levels: 3004.0, 2965.0, 2937.0, 2865.0, 2840.0, 2765.0
Resistance Levels: 3028.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2990.0. Stop-Loss 3030.0. Targets 2965.0, 2937.0
Buy Stop 3030.0. Stop Loss 2990.0. Targets 3050.0, 3100.0, 3200.0

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: the fall of the pound has intensified
30/07/2019
The pair GBP / USD resumed falling amid risks for the British economy due to the increased likelihood of a “tough” Brexit.
Boris Johnson, who succeeded Theresa May as prime minister, said earlier that he was ready for a tough Brexit. On October 31, the UK should finally withdraw from the EU, even if no agreement is reached between the parties.
"The exit agreement is dead and should be canceled, but there is a possibility of a new deal", Johnson said on Monday during his visit to Scotland. His press secretary announced the Prime Minister’s decision to refuse to meet with EU leaders, unless they change their position. "The UK will withdraw from the EU on October 31, anyway", she said.
The pound fell 1.3% against the US dollar on Monday and also traded at the lowest level against the euro since September 2017. On Tuesday, the decline in the pound continues.
In the current situation, only short positions should be considered for the GBP / USD pair. Mostly long-term negative dynamics. The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci 0% level of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
Consideration of long positions can only be returned after the pair grows to a zone above resistance levels of 1.2480 (November 2018 lows), 1.2530 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart) with targets at resistance levels of 1.2775, 1.2840 (upper line of the ascending channel and ЕМА200 on the daily chart). However, this is an unlikely scenario.
On Thursday at 11:00 (GMT) the decision of the Bank of England on the rate will be published, and at 11:30 the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney will begin. The risks of a “tough” Brexit and the likelihood of a deteriorating economic situation in the country have a negative impact on the Bank of England, which is aimed at easing policies. Although, most likely, the bank will refrain so far from any changes.
Support Levels: 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2400, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2775, 1.2840

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2230. Take-Profit 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2230. Stop Loss 1.2150. Take-Profit 1.2400, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2670, 1.2700

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: the dynamics of the pair depends mainly on the Fed and the US dollar
07/31/2019
In mid-July, the NZD / USD pair broke through the key resistance level of 0.6710 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and continued to rise against the background of the weakening US dollar. Growth stopped at 0.6790, almost a 4-month high.
The upper line of the ascending channel on the daily chart also passes through this mark. There was a rebound from it into the channel and to its lower boundary, passing near the level of 0.6610, where NZD / USD is now trading.
Investors are waiting for the outcome of the two-day Fed meeting, which will end on Wednesday with the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of an interest rate decision. Probably, the Fed will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points (to 2.25%). However, the markets have already taken into account in the quotations the reduction of the rate by 0.25%, and if the Fed does not give a strong signal about the further easing of its monetary policy, the dollar decline may have a short-term character.
Steadily weak inflation is the main and, perhaps, so far the only negative domestic economic factor that can affect the Fed’s decision to lower the rate more strongly. Among other negative factors are the uncertainty in US trade relations with China and the risks of a slowdown in the global economy.
At 18:30 (GMT), a press conference on the results of the Fed meeting will begin. Signals from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, aimed at the likelihood of further easing of monetary policy, will cause the dollar to fall. Otherwise, after a short-term decline, the dollar is likely to resume growth, and the NZD / USD pair will decline.
In this case, the decline in NZD / USD is likely to resume after a small short-term correction.
After the breakdown of the local support level of 0.6585, NZD / USD will head towards the annual minimum near the 0.6490 mark. More distant targets of decline are located at support levels of 0.6430 (2018 lows), 0.6260 (Fibonacci 0% level and minima of the global decline pair from 0.8820).
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 0.6659 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts) with targets at the resistance levels of 0.6680 (ЕМА144), 0.6710 (ЕМА200 and the middle of the rising channel on the daily chart). Further growth of NZD / USD is unlikely, and short positions are preferred below the local support level of 0.6610.
Support Levels: 0.6610, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6659, 0.6680, 0.6710, 0.6790, 0.6865, 0.6910

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6580. Stop Loss 0.6635. Take-Profit 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6635. Stop Loss 0.6580. Take-Profit 0.6659, 0.6680, 0.6710

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Eurodollar is likely to continue to decline
08/01/2019
The dollar rose sharply, and the Eurodollar fell last Wednesday after the Fed’s decision regarding monetary policy became known. Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bp up to 2.25%. In general, such a decision was expected by market participants, although some of them counted on a 50 bp cut in interest rates.
The Fed decided to lower the rate by 0.25% to protect the economy from the effects of the global slowdown and the escalation of trade tension. According to the Fed, "uncertainty about the prospects remains". At the same time, there was no clear signal from the Fed about a further rate cut, which caused disappointment among dollar sellers. At a subsequent press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also refrained from statements aimed at further easing the Fed's policies.
According to the CME Group and according to the quotes of futures on Fed rates, market participants on Tuesday estimated at 87% the probability of another rate cut at the end of 2019, but now they believe that the probability of such a development is only 60%. As for the cycle of lowering rates, "at present we do not expect this", Powell said.
The dollar went on the offensive, and the EUR / USD pair continued to decline during the Asian session on Thursday. At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair reached a new annual low near 1.1030 (the lower line of the downward channel on the weekly chart) amid expectations of further easing of the ECB's monetary policy.
In the current situation, short positions in EUR / USD are preferable. Below the key resistance levels 1.1320 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics prevail.
You can return to purchases only after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1145 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which will mean the beginning of an upward correction with a target near the resistance level 1.1210 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart and ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
There are no prerequisites for a more confident growth of EUR / USD. At the same time, long-term reduction targets are located near 2015 and 2017 lows and marks 1.0600, 1.0500. After the breakdown of the support level of 1.1030, the immediate goal will be the support level of 1.0900.
Support Levels: 1.1030, 1.1000, 1.0900, 1.0500
Resistance Levels: 1.1145, 1.1180, 1.1210, 1.1285, 1.1320

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1080. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0900
Buy Stop 1.1080. Stop-Loss 1.1020. Take-Profit 1.1145, 1.1180, 1.1210

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: new Trump statements brought the oil market down
08/02/2019
On Thursday afternoon, global stock indices and oil prices collapsed after Trump announced on Twitter that he would introduce new duties on Chinese imports from next month. The unexpected and sharp aggravation of foreign trade tension was a shock for investors.
The yield on 10-year US government bonds fell to 1.894%, the lowest level since November 8, 2016.
After Trump's announcement of the introduction of new duties on Chinese goods, the DXY dollar index collapsed, and traders again raised rates on further easing the Fed's policies.
The DXY Dollar Index Futures is trading Friday at the start of the European session near 98.00, 36 pips below its opening price on Thursday.
Amid the aggravated trade conflict between the United States and China, the price of oil fell sharply (about 8%). This was the most significant fall since February 2015. Aggravation of the trade conflict increases uncertainty, which contributes to the fall of risky assets and commodity prices.
On Friday, investors will focus on the July report on US employment, which will be published at 12:30 (GMT).
The US labor market remains a strong fundamental factor supporting a positive assessment of the state of the US economy. Economists predict that the report will show an increase in the number of new jobs outside the US agriculture by 165,000 with an unemployment rate of 3.6% - 3.7%.
This report is very important because (along with data on GDP and inflation indicators) it directly affects the Fed's decisions regarding interest rates.
If the Fed in making decisions in the future will rely not only on the situation in the global financial market and on the aggravating world trade relations, but also on the incoming economic data, then with the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, further mitigation of its monetary policy cannot be avoided.
And this is a negative factor for the dollar, and a positive one - for commodity prices, including oil.
Also, on Friday, oil market participants will follow the publication (at 17:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States, to 776 units at the moment, from 784 units 2 weeks ago. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.
However, at the moment, the oil market is subject to pressure from the intensification of international trade conflicts, primarily between the United States and China.
Any strong news on this subject may again cause a surge in volatility in oil quotes.
From a technical point of view, below the levels of 56.80 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 58.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart) dollars per barrel of WTI crude oil, short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 55.40, 56.80, 58.00, 58.50, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 53.90. Stop-Loss 55.60. Take-Profit 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 55.60. Stop-Loss 53.90. Take-Profit 56.80, 58.00, 58.50, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: Current Dynamics
08/05/2019
Against the background of expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy, the US stock index DJIA updated last month the absolute and annual maximum near the level of 27400.0.
Last week, the Fed lowered the rate by 0.25%. Many investors expected a rate cut by 0.50%, so the market reaction was restrained to this news.
Although the indices have maintained their positive dynamics.
However, stock indices, including the DJIA, crashed late last week after Trump tweeted that the United States introduced a new 10% duty on Chinese goods from September 1.
Last week was the worst for US stock markets in a few months.
S&P 500 on Friday fell by 0.7% to 2932.05 points. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%, falling to 26485.01 points. Over the entire week, the S&P 500 fell 3.1% - this is its worst weekly dynamics since December. DJIA for the whole week fell by 2.6% and recorded the strongest weekly decline since May. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% on Friday to 8004.07 points, and lost 3.9% over the entire week.
On Monday, the fall of world and US stock indices continues.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 2.9% to 26151.32 points on Monday in Japan, while the Japanese Nikkei Stock Average fell 1.7% to 20720.29 points on the back of the yen rising to a 7-month high.
Futures on the S&P500 index are trading at the beginning of the European session on Monday near 2888.0, 40 pips (or 1.3%) below the opening price of today's trading day.
Futures on the DJIA index are trading at the beginning of the European session near the mark of 26100.0, 370 points (or 1.4%) below the opening price of today's trading day, near the support level of 26100.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
In case of breakdown of the support level 25900.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the following objectives will be the support level 25300.0 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily and weekly charts) and the important support level 24630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave that began in February 2016 from the mark of 15500.0).
Nevertheless, despite the current decline, there is the long-term positive dynamics of the American stock indices and the DJIA index, including.
A return to the zone above the resistance levels of 26700.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart and maximums of April 2019), 26830.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will indicate a restoration of the bull trend and the resumption of purchases.
In the meantime, you should refrain from shopping.
Support Levels: 26100.0, 25900.0, 25300.0, 24630.0
Resistance Levels: 26700.0, 26830.0, 27000.0, 27400.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 26850.0. Stop-Loss 25980.0. Take-Profit 27000.0, 27400.0, 27500.0
Sell Stop 25980.0. Stop-Loss 26850.0. Take-Profit 25900.0, 25300.0, 24630.0

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: amid escalation of international trade conflicts
08/06/2019
On Wednesday, the next meeting of the RBNZ will be held, devoted to issues of monetary policy. The publication of the decision on rates is scheduled for 02:00, and the press conference of the RBNZ following the meeting will begin at 03:00 (GMT). The RBNZ recently revised economic forecasts downward, and probably the bank will signal a further easing of monetary policy.
Many economists are inclined to believe that the RBNZ can lower the interest rate at least twice before the end of the year.
The slowdown in the global economy and the increase in import duties negatively impact the export-oriented New Zealand commodity economy.
Last Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced his readiness to introduce an additional 10% duty on Chinese goods from September 1. Shortly afterwards, when the yuan / US dollar broke through level 7, the People’s Bank of China said its currency weakened under the influence of "protectionist measures and the expectation of the introduction of additional duties against China" from the United States.
The erupting trade conflict between New Zealand's two largest trading partners - China and the United States, as well as the risks of a slowdown in the global economy puts pressure on the RB of New Zealand to further mitigate monetary policy.
And this is a strong negative factor for NZD.
Currently, NZD / USD is trading near 0.6545, having slightly adjusted against the backdrop of positive news from the New Zealand labor market, published at the beginning of the Asian session on Tuesday.
The tendency of the RBNZ to further lower the rate will cause a further weakening of the NZD and a drop in the pair of NZD / USD.
In this case, a breakdown of the local support level of 0.6490 (lows in May, June, August) will provoke a further decrease in NZD / USD with targets at support levels of 0.6430 (lows of 2018), 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and lows of the global pair decline wave from 0.8820) .
Short positions are preferred so far.
An alternative scenario assumes a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6588 with targets at resistance levels of 0.6670 (EMA144 and the middle of the rising channel on the daily chart), 0.6700 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Further growth of NZD / USD is unlikely, unless, of course, the Fed also begins to aggressively reduce interest rates amid ongoing events in the financial markets.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication (in the period after 13:45 GMT) of data with the results of a milk auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (a specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT). If the data indicate a fall in world prices for dairy products (forecast: -1.1%), primarily for milk powder, then the New Zealand dollar will decline.
Support Levels: 0.6510, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6588, 0.6635, 0.6670, 0.6700, 0.6790, 0.6865, 0.6940

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6510, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6590. Stop-Loss 0.6540. Take-Profit 0.6635, 0.6670, 0.6700