Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Current Dynamics
05/13/2019
Despite negotiations, on Friday the White House raised customs duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%. Moreover, the USA threatened to introduce additional duties for another 325 billion dollars, i.e. on all Chinese imports. Beijing said it would retaliate.
The aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China led to increased fluctuations in world markets. Last week, the US S & P 500 index suffered the most severe losses since the beginning of the year.
Many economists have warned that new duties and barrage trade barriers threaten the United States with a slowdown in economic growth.
On Monday, the major US stock indices are falling, and futures for the S & P500 index at the beginning of the European session is trading near the mark of 2848.0. Probably, the American session will also begin with the fall of the indices.
In case of fixation below the support level of 2860.0, the S & P500 will go to support level of 2770.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). While the S & P500 index is trading above this key support level, long-term positive dynamics remain.
Nevertheless, purchases can be resumed after the S & P500 consolidates in the zone above the short-term resistance levels of 2883.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 2890.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, 4-hour, 1-hour charts turned to the short positions, signaling a likely continuation of the decline.
Support Levels: 2860.0, 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0
Resistance Levels: 2883.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2840.0. Stop Loss 2870.0. Objectives 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0
Buy Stop 2870.0. Stop Loss 2840.0. Objectives 2883.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: trade conflict between the US and China threatens the global economy
05/14/2019
Last Monday, China announced its intention to raise duties on US imports of about $ 60 billion in response to US actions on Chinese imports. This raised investors' concerns that the US-China trade standoff would lead to a further slowdown in the global economy.
According to economists, because of the trade war, China’s GDP growth in 2019 could be less than 6%, and the US dollar / Chinese yuan pair could rise to 7.2000.
The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, said on Monday that the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China increases the risk of negative developments in the economy.
Financial markets reacted to these events with a fall in stock indices, a rise in the price of the Japanese yen, government bonds and gold, as well as a fall in commodity prices and commodity currencies. First of all, it refers to the Australian dollar. China is Australia's largest trading and economic partner and a buyer of its commodities, such as liquefied gas, coal, iron ore, and gold.
External and internal macroeconomic background contributes to increasing pressure on the RBA in the direction of lowering the interest rate, and on the Australian dollar - in the direction of its further reduction.
In this situation, the AUD / USD pair is likely to continue to decline, even regardless of the Fed's actions. With the escalation of international trade wars, the US dollar still looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy in this situation.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading Scenarios
AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. The last wave of decline began in January 2018 from the level of 0.8120. AUD / USD remains under pressure below key resistance levels of 0.7140 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.7185 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, the breakdown of the resistance levels of 0.6995 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7055 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) may provoke a continuation of the upward correction to the resistance level of 0.7140. At the moment and below the resistance levels of 0.7140, 0.7185, short positions with targets at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows) are preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6910, 0.6830
Resistance Levels: 0.6980, 0.6995, 0.7055, 0.7140, 0.7185

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6965. Take-Profit 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.6965. Stop Loss 0.6935. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6995, 0.7055, 0.7140, 0.7185

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: the price has reached the zone of important support levels
05/15/2019
Participants in the oil market are concerned about the escalation of trade confrontation between China and the United States and the slowdown in global economic growth. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 by 90,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day. These are negative fundamental factors for oil prices. At 14:30 (GMT), the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy will publish its regular weekly report, according to which, reserves are expected to grow by 2.984 million barrels. If the forecast is confirmed, oil prices may resume their decline.
At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, WTI crude oil is trading near the 61.10 mark, through which there is a strong support level (ЕМА50 and the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart). In case of a breakdown of this level, the price will fall to support levels of 59.90 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the support level near the 42.14 mark). Above these levels, a long-term upward trend is maintained.
If China and the United States nevertheless succeed in reaching an agreement, while negotiations between the representatives of the two countries continue, it is likely that oil prices will rise again.
The signal for the resumption of purchases will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 61.85 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts). In this case, the price will go to the recent highs near the 66.50 mark and further, to the 70.00 mark, through which the upper line of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.
The alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 59.50 and a decrease to the support level of 57.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). Breakdown of support levels 57.00, 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) will revive the bearish trend.
Support Levels: 61.10, 59.90, 59.50, 57.00, 55.40
Resistance Levels: 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00, 70.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 60.60. Stop Loss 62.10. Take-Profit 59.90, 59.50, 57.00, 55.40
Buy Stop 62.10. Stop Loss 60.60. Take-Profit 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00, 70.00

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
05/16/2019
The pound continues to fall. The situation around Brexit has remained the main driver of the pound since mid-2016, when a Brexit referendum was held. At this time, the pound falls on information from the fact that the Prime Minister may lose his post, and his place will be taken by a supporter of tough Brexit.
Theresa May was unable to advance in negotiations with the opposition Labor Party to support the Brexit agreement. And even among the members of her Conservative Party, there are more and more of her opponents.
Having broken through the key support levels of 1.3045 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3020 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), on Thursday the GBP / USD pair has been falling for 9 days in a row and is trading on Thursday at the beginning of the European session, near the 1.2830 mark.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts recommend short positions.
A further weakening of the pound will lead to a decline in GBP / USD to support levels of 1.2700 (lows of October and August 2018), 1.2600.
Purchases will be possible only after GBP / USD returns to the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.2960 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with growth targets at resistance levels of 1.3045, 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave, started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3370 (March and year highs), 1.3610 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
So far, short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2800, 1.2778, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600
Resistance Levels: 1.2870, 1.2960, 1.3020, 1.3045, 1.3100, 1.3125, 1.3167, 1.3210

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2778, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600
Buy Stop 1.2880. Stop Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3020, 1.3045, 1.3100, 1.3125, 1.3167, 1.3210

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
05/17/2019
The US dollar rose on Thursday. The dollar index DXY, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major currencies, rose by 32 points on Thursday, to 97.68. Published US economic data exceeded expectations, which increased investor risk appetite.
According to data released on Thursday, the number of new homes in the United States has increased by 5.7% in April compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.235 million units; the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was 212,000 (compared with the forecast of 220,000 and 228,000 in the previous weekly period).
On Friday, investors will pay attention to the publication (at 14:00 GMT) of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. The index is an indicator of consumer confidence in economic growth. High result strengthens USD, low - weakens
The index is expected to rise to 97.5 in May against 97.2 in April. Probably, the US dollar will receive an additional impetus to growth, if the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast. The data below the forecast will have a downward pressure on the dollar, but only in the short term.
Under conditions of uncertainty and escalation of international trade wars, the US dollar looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.
On Friday, the USD growth continues, while the DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of the European session near the 97.73 mark.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is falling after data came out on Thursday indicating that unemployment was rising in Australia to 5.2%. The revised data also indicated that unemployment in March was 5.1% versus a previous estimate of 5.0%.
Rising unemployment increases the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. On Tuesday, the RBA Governor will deliver a speech in Brisbane. It is possible that he will signal the imminent reduction in rates. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates at 40% and 100% in August.
In the current situation, the most likely scenario is a further decrease in AUD / USD with the closest target at 0.6830 (2016 lows).
Below the key resistance levels of 0.7130 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable. A strong negative impulse prevails.
Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800
Resistance Levels: 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
05/20/2019
At the beginning of the European session, the XAU / USD pair attempts to break through the strong and key support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
In case of a successful breakdown of this level, the targets for further decline will be the support levels of 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50%), 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows), which will mean the return of gold prices in a bearish trend.
An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1287.00, above which the upward trend will resume. The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).
On Monday, market participants will closely monitor the performance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will begin at 23:00 (GMT). If he signals about the likelihood of a soon decrease in the interest rate, then the dollar may sharply decline, and the price of gold will rise.
Some Fed leaders are concerned about weak inflation. According to them, it is possible that the central bank will have to take measures to speed up inflation, and that they will be ready to lower interest rates. Although Jerome Powell believes that low inflation in the United States is a “temporary phenomenon”.
In the current situation, market participants prefer the dollar. The American economy as a whole is in a better condition than the economies of other countries amid the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China.
Support Levels: 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1287.00, 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1272.00. Stop Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1282.00. Stop Loss 1272.00. Take-Profit 1287.00, 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Trading Scenarios
05/21/2019
Rising unemployment and low inflation increase the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. "During the meeting on June 4, interest rate cuts will be discussed", RBA manager Philip Lowe said on Tuesday. According to him, "new stimulating measures could help accelerate economic growth".
In the minutes from the May meeting of the RBA published today, it is stated that "the lack of improvement in the labor market situation is an argument in favor of lowering interest rates". “Without easing monetary policy in the next six months, we should expect lowering forecasts for GDP growth and inflation”, the RBA leaders concluded.
International trade conflicts, primarily between the United States and China, also pose a risk to the Australian economy. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates in more than 50% and 100% in August.
Against this negative background, the decline in AUD / USD continues. Below the key resistance levels of 0.7120 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. The lows of the global wave of decline, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500, are located near the mark of 0.6830. AUD / USD may reach this level in the coming days.
The objectives of the upward correction are located at the resistance levels of 0.7015 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7100, 0.7120.
However, for now, only short positions should be considered.
Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800
Resistance Levels: 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: before the publication of the FOMC minutes
05/22/2019
Current Dynamics
Speaking on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concern about the growth of US company debt. However, he did not say anything about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, but noted that “GDP growth rates are stable, US employment rates are quite high, while wages are rising against the backdrop of restrained inflation”.
Inflation remains the focus of Fed officials.
The central bank set a target inflation rate of 2% in 2012, and never once ensured its sustainability. Moreover, this year inflation has weakened, even against the background of strengthening economy and employment growth. The inflationary expectations of market participants and the population have also weakened, and this increases the likelihood that real inflation will not grow as the Fed leaders want.
Most of them believe that this year the rates will not be changed, and those who thought they would be raised refused this opinion. Financial markets are expecting lower rates by the end of this year.
On Wednesday, market participants will carefully study the minutes from the May Fed meeting in order to understand the intentions of the central bank management regarding monetary policy. The publication of the Fed's minutes is scheduled for 18:00 (GMT). Volatility at this time may sharply increase in the financial markets if the protocols contain unexpected statements by the Fed leaders. The harsh rhetoric of their statements regarding monetary policy will cause a strengthening of the USD. Conversely, a penchant for soft politics will cause a weakening of the American dollar.
Lowering the interest rate of the Fed is a strong fundamental factor that will have a negative impact on the USD quotes.
Nevertheless, the demand for the dollar is likely to continue in the context of the escalating US trade conflict with China and amid a slowdown in the European economy, as well as expectations of the results of parliamentary elections (May 23-26) in Europe. At the same time, the RB of Australia and the RB of New Zealand directly declare monetary policy easing.
The dollar in the current situation looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Technical Analysis
The increase in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected at 12:30 (GMT) in connection with the publication of data on retail sales in Canada. In March, the level of retail sales is expected to increase by 1.0% in the country (after rising + 0.8% in the previous month). This is a positive factor that will support CAD when confirming the forecast.
After the USD / CAD updated its 3-month high near the 1.3520 mark at the end of last month, this currency pair is being adjusted, falling on Wednesday for the 4th consecutive day.
At the beginning of the European session, USD / CAD is trading near 1.3390, below the important support level of 1.3400 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts turned to the short positions.
Nevertheless, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3310 (EMA144), 1.3265 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of resistance levels 1.3400, 1.3419 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of long positions.
After the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3520 (2019 highs), the USD / CAD will head towards the resistance levels of 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
Support Levels: 1.3376, 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265
Resistance Levels: 1.3400, 1.3419, 1.3440, 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop Loss 1.3435. Take-Profit 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265
Buy Stop 1.3435. Stop Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
05/23/2019
NZD / USD is developing a downward dynamic, actively declining over the past two months. In May, the NZD / USD pair received an additional negative impulse after the RBNZ meeting and after the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the May Fed meeting.
As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RBNZ reduced the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.5%. In a related statement, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr pointed out that "there is uncertainty about the prospects for the global economy and concerns about trade remain". According to him, “inflationary pressure will grow only slowly”. The forecast for the rate of RBNZ also lowered to 1.4%. Many economists believe that another reduction in the rate of the RBNZ may occur already this year.
At the same time, the Fed leaders are still refraining from changes in monetary policy. This became clear from the minutes from the May Fed meeting, published on Wednesday. "Many participants in the meeting made it clear that their fears from the beginning of the year, to some extent, weakened", the protocols said.
Thus, amid the difference in monetary policy between the Fed and the RBNZ, as well as the trade conflict between the United States and China, a further reduction in NZD / USD with the immediate goal located at the support level of 0.6830 is likely. The farther target of the decline is at the support level of 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and the lows of the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014).
The signal for the development of an alternative scenario will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 0.6636 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which may cause an increase to the resistance level of 0.6710 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Further growth is unlikely. Predominantly strong negative impulse. Below the key resistance level of 0.6755 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6230
Resistance Levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6580, 0.6623, 0.6710, 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6940

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI Oil: Current Dynamics
24/05/2019
On Friday, the price of oil is rising, adjusting after falling the previous day. The aggravation of the trade conflict between China and the United States, as well as the growth of oil reserves in the United States provoked a sharp drop in oil prices.
Futures for WTI oil on the NYMEX closed on Thursday with a decrease of 5.7%, at $ 57.91 per barrel, the lowest level since March 12. It was the sharpest drop since December 24th.
The United States has added the Chinese corporation Huawei to a “black list”, imposing significant trade restrictions on the company.
At the same time, on Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy presented regular weekly data on oil reserves, which rose last week by 4.7 million barrels to 477 million barrels, the highest since July 2017. Also increased reserves of gasoline and distillates.
WTI crude oil traded at the beginning of the European session at 58.42, by $ 0.35 above the opening price of today.
At 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes will publish its weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. If the report indicates an increase in the number of such installations (currently it is 802 units), this may give an additional negative impetus to prices.


The price of WTI crude oil is trading on Friday below key support levels of 59.90 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the daily chart), 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% level of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the mark of 76.80 to the level of support near 42.14), slightly higher support level 56.85 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Growth in the zone above the levels of 56.85, 59.50, 59.90 will cause the resumption of the bullish trend.
The breakdown of the support level of 56.85 will open the way to the support level of 55.40 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Breakdown of this support level will revive the bearish trend.
Support Levels: 57.00, 56.85, 55.40
Resistance Levels: 59.50, 59.90, 61.10, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 57.80. Stop Loss 58.80. Take-Profit 57.00, 56.85, 55.40
Buy Stop 58.80. Stop Loss 57.80. Take-Profit 59.50, 59.90, 61.10, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
05/27/2019
The minutes of the ECB meeting held on April 9-10, published last Thursday, reminded market participants about the problems in the European economy. "Inflation remains well below the target level, and inflationary expectations of the market have weakened, while the predicted convergence of real and expected inflation is constantly postponed to a later date", the meeting minutes say.
The ECB leaders believe that the weakness of the Eurozone economy may persist longer than expected. They "stressed their determination to remain ready to change monetary policy instruments, if appropriate".
Last week, the EUR / USD rose due to the weakening dollar. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against a basket of 6 major currencies, lost over the past week 0.38% (or 37 points), falling to 97.47.


However, the EUR / USD global downtrend remains in place. The EUR / USD pair continues to decline amid adverse European macro statistics. As soon as the dollar starts to grow again, the EUR / USD pair will decrease.
For more serious growth, the euro and the EUR / USD pair lack fundamental drivers.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1320 (EMA144), 1.1380 (EMA200 on the daily chart) long-term negative dynamics prevail. A further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000 is likely. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1180 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
On Monday, trading volumes are insignificant due to weekends in the UK (Spring Bank holiday) and in the USA (Memorial Day). Exchanges and banks in these countries are closed. The activity of traders will recover in the financial markets on Tuesday, and at the beginning of the European session a whole block of macro data for the Eurozone will be published, among which are indicators of consumer and business sentiment for May. A deterioration of the indicators is expected, causing a weakening of the euro and a fall in EUR / USD.
Support Levels: 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1210, 1.1225, 1.1285, 1.1320, 1.1380

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1175. Stop Loss 1.1230. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1230. Stop Loss 1.1175. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1320, 1.1380

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Current Dynamics
05/28/2019
World stock indices went down again after weak growth during the Asian session on Tuesday.
Investors are returning to the market after a long weekend and assess the events that have taken place, including the elections to the European Parliament and the trip of US President Donald Trump to Japan. Trump said that despite the recent conflict with Iran, he will not try to dislodge the government of this country.
He also said that, against the background of "substantial progress" in trade negotiations with Japan, duties on Chinese imports "can easily be extremely increased". Thus, the US-China trade conflict threatens with a new aggravation, which can negatively affect both the Chinese and the American economies.
Meanwhile, the yield of US government bonds falls again. Thus, at the beginning of the European session, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell to 2.278%, the lowest since February 2018. This indicates a growing uncertainty among investors and their avoidance of risks and purchases of high-yielding and risky assets.
At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, futures for the S&P500 index traded near the mark of 2825.0. Probably, the American session will also begin with the fall of the indices.
We are waiting for the publication of the consumer confidence index for May on Tuesday (14:00 GMT). The index is expected to grow (130.1 vs. 129.2 in April), which will support the dollar and US stock indices. If the data is weaker than the previous values, it will put additional pressure on US stock indices.


Nevertheless, the positive dynamics of the S&P500 persists. The index is trading above key support levels of 2810.0 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the growth from December 2018 and 2335.0 mark), 2798.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 2781.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 2845.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of purchases with the long-term goal near the annual and absolute maximum of 2959.0.
Break of the key support level of 2781.0 will revive the bearish trend. For now, this is an unlikely scenario.
Support Levels: 2810.0, 2798.0, 2781.0, 2720.0
Resistance Levels: 2845.0, 2863.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2805.0. Stop Loss 2850.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2780.0, 2720.0
Buy Stop 2850.0. Stop Loss 2805.0. Objectives 2863.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
05/29/2019
US President Donald Trump said last Monday that he was “not yet ready” to conclude a trade agreement with China. In his opinion, against the background of "substantial progress" in trade negotiations with Japan, duties on Chinese imports "can easily be extremely substantially raised".
Trump's statement heightened investors' concerns about the growth prospects of the global economy, since a possible escalation of the trade conflict and the introduction of duties on goods from these countries would cause damage to both the American and Chinese economies, according to economists.
In this situation, the demand for defensive assets (gold, government bonds, yen) has grown significantly in recent days.
Thus, the growth in demand for US government bonds led to a significant drop in their profitability.
The yield on 10-year US government bonds fell last week to 2.292%. On Wednesday, their yield fell to 2,229%, the lowest since February 2018.
It is possible that the Fed will still start lowering interest rates in order to support American manufacturers. And this will lead to a decrease in the dollar and the growth of gold prices.

For the 6th week in a row, the XAU / USD has been trading in a narrow range near current levels and a key support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Increased uncertainty in financial markets and the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China may lead to a resumption of the bullish XAU / USD trend.
The breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1286.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of upward dynamics and growth of XAU / USD with targets located at resistance levels of 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (maximums of February and 2019). This is the most likely scenario.
An alternative scenario implies the breakdown of the key support level of 1277.00, the lower line of the 1268.00 range, and a further decline to the lower boundary of the downward channel on the daily chart and to the support level of 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50%), which will create prerequisites for XAU / USD to return to the global bearish trend with the reduction targets at the support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows).
Support Levels: 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1286.00, 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1275.00. Stop Loss 1288.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1288.00. Stop Loss 1275.00. Take-Profit 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics and Market Expectations
05/30/2019
As expected by many market participants, at the last Wednesday meeting, the Bank of Canada kept the current monetary policy and key interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
"The recent escalation of the trade conflict has increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects", the central bank said. At the same time, the leaders of the bank believe that the slowdown in economic growth in Canada is temporary, expecting an improvement in economic activity in the country and referring to the “acceleration in the 2nd quarter”.
The recent decision of the White House to remove duties on Canadian steel and aluminum "will have a positive impact on Canadian exports and investment", because it increased the likelihood of ratifying the revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
On Friday (12:30 GMT), an increase in volatility in the USD / CAD trades is expected due to the publication of important macro statistics for the US and Canada. It is expected that Canadian GDP grew by 1.3% in the 2nd quarter after weak growth in the first three months of the year. Some economists believe that growth in the 2nd quarter could exceed the central bank estimate and be 2% or higher.
At the same time, the April data on consumer spending in the United States, which will also be released at the same time, may adversely affect investors' expectations regarding the US economy if the data are weak after weak data on industrial production and retail sales in the United States, published earlier.
If weak macro data starts to come in from the USA, then the probability of a decrease in the Fed's interest rate will increase. Investors already estimate the likelihood of a rate cut in 2019 at 83% versus 64% a month ago.
It is also necessary to take into account that on the last trading day of the week and month many market participants will want to take profits in long positions in the US dollar, which will cause its decline.

Thus, next month, a corrective decline in the USD / CAD pair may start with targets at the support levels of 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair growth in the global uptrend from September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3435 (ЕМА200 on the 4 -hourly chart), 1.3420 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the level 1.3420 will provoke a deeper decline to the support levels of 1.3325 (ЕМА144), 1.3275 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the key levels 1.3325, 1.3275, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend.
A return to the zone above the local resistance level of 1.3520 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions with targets at the resistance levels of 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
Support Levels: 1.3465, 1.3452, 1.3435, 1.3420, 1.3325, 1.3275
Resistance Levels: 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3480. Stop Loss 1.3530. Take-Profit 1.3465, 1.3452, 1.3435, 1.3420, 1.3325, 1.3275
Buy Stop 1.3530. Stop-Loss 1.3480. Take-Profit 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: pessimism grows - oil becomes cheaper
05/31/2019
The financial markets are dominated by pessimism of investors who prefer defensive assets, such as the yen, gold, and government bonds.
Thus, the yield on 10-year US government bonds after a decline last week to a multi-month low of 2.292%, today updated the minimum, dropping to 2.154%, marks in September 2017.
After the White House increased import duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion last month, and US President Donald Trump threatened to expand barrage measures, in response, China imposed duties on US goods in $60 billion.
Last Monday, Donald Trump said that he was “not yet ready” to conclude a trade agreement with China.
New threats from the White House, now to the address of Mexico, have added another batch of negative to investors. On Friday, Trump threatened to impose duties on 5% for goods from Mexico on June 10. The threat will be enforced if the Mexican authorities do not take measures to prevent illegal immigration to the United States. Taxes on Mexican goods will be raised to 10% from July 1, to 15% from August 1, to 20% from September 1 to 25% from October 1, and will continue until Mexico’s authorities take effective measures to combat illegal immigration in USA.
In June, the attention of traders will switch to the scheduled OPEC meeting at the end of the month. Representatives of OPEC member countries, including Russia, have to decide whether to extend the agreement to reduce total oil production by the end of 2019. A slowdown in the global economy and a downward trend in oil prices may force the organization to continue to implement production reduction agreements in order to support prices.
In anticipation of this event, oil prices are likely to remain under pressure.
At 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes will present a weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States to 797 units.
Oil reserves in the United States remain at about 476.50 million barrels (22-month high), which is 5% higher than the average 5-year value for this time of year. If the Baker Hughes report indicates an increase in the number of such installations, this may give an additional negative impetus to prices.

Mostly negative dynamics. At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is quoted at $ 55.16 per barrel, below the important levels of 59.90 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 59.50 (50% Fibonacci level). Last Thursday, the price of WTI crude oil broke through another major and key support level of 56.85 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
If next week the price remains in the zone below support level 55.40 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to support level near 42.15), then long-term short positions with targets at support levels 50.30 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 42.15 (Fibonacci level 0% and minimums of December 2018) will be relevant.
Only the return of prices to the zone above the level of 59.90 will resume the bull trend.
Support Levels: 55.40, 50.30, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 56.85, 59.00, 59.50, 59.90, 60.90

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 54.50. Stop Loss 56.90. Take-Profit 50.30, 43.00
Buy Stop 57.10. Stop-Loss 55.30. Take-Profit 59.00, 59.50, 59.90, 60.90, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: RBA may announce another 2 rate cuts

03/06/2019

Current dynamics

The Australian dollar and the AUD / USD pair are rising on Monday, despite the fact that on Tuesday a meeting of the RB of Australia will be held, at which the bank is expected to reduce the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%.

Moreover, many economists believe that the RBA may announce 2 more rate cuts this year, given the uncertain situation in the global economy and its potential impact on Australian GDP growth.

However, investors are selling the US dollar, which gives a positive impetus to dollar pairs.

Anxiety does not leave investors, and world stock indices continue to decline after last week, US President Donald Trump threatened Mexico with the introduction of import duties on its products, unless the authorities of this country take measures to prevent illegal immigration to the US.

“Mexico sent a large delegation for border talks. The problem is that they "say" 25 years. We need action, not talk. If they wanted to, they would solve the problem of the border in one day”, Trump tweeted on Sunday.

The RBA meeting will end with the publication of the interest rate decision on Tuesday (04:30 GMT).

As previously stated by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, "new incentives could help accelerate economic growth". Recent labor market data was weak, and “to accelerate inflation, an unemployment rate below 5% is needed”, Lowe added.

The perspective of reducing the RBA rate by 0.5% or more percent creates pressure on the Australian currency.

As soon as investors again pay attention to the American dollar, the AUD / USD pair will turn back "to the south". The US dollar looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.

Despite the current correctional growth, AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend.

Below the key resistance levels of 0.7095 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7148 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.

When the price reaches the resistance level of 0.7000 (ЕМА50 and the upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart), it is recommended to resume or increase sales with stops 20-30 points higher than this mark.

The immediate goal of the decline is located at 0.6830 (2016 lows).

Support Levels: 0.6923, 0.6900, 0.6830, 0.6800

Resistance Levels: 0.6973, 0.7000, 0.7095, 0.7148



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7020. Take-Profit 0.6923, 0.6900, 0.6830, 0.6800

Buy Stop 0.7020. Stop Loss 0.6960. Take-Profit 0.7095, 0.7148

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
04/06/2019
The US dollar continues to decline on Tuesday, under pressure from the heightened expectations of lower Fed interest rates. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and a member of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee James Bullard said Monday that "a reduction in rates may be appropriate soon" to support the economy and accelerate inflation. According to him, "the slowdown may be more dramatic than expected, due to the continuing uncertainty in the conditions of world trade".
On Tuesday, DXY futures dropped to 97.00. Investors are moving away from the risks that have intensified due to the aggravation of the US-China and USA-Mexico trade confrontation, preferring gold, yen, and government bonds. Thus, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell on Monday to 2.075%, to the marks of September 2017.
At the same time, investors assess the risks and prospects for the direction of further movement of both the dollar and the euro, on the eve of the ECB meeting on Thursday.
The uncertainty associated with Brexit, the situation in Italy, makes investors cautious about the likelihood of further strengthening of the euro.
If the rhetoric of the statements of the management of the ECB is soft in relation to its monetary policy, the euro may decline, including in relation to the dollar.
At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, EUR / USD is trading near the 1.1250 mark, 10 points higher than the opening price of the trading day. The current growth of the Eurodollar is associated more with the weakening of the dollar and the correction, rather than with the strengthening of the euro.
EUR / USD is in a steady bearish trend.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1315 (EMA144), 1.1365 (EMA200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics prevail.
The signal for the resumption of short positions will be the return of EUR / USD to the zone below the support level of 1.1210 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) with the likelihood of further falling of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels of 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000.
Support Levels: 1.1210, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1315, 1.1365

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1235. Stop Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1290. Stop Loss 1.1235. Take-Profit 1.1315, 1.1365

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
05/06/2019
On Wednesday, gold rises in price for the 5th day in a row. The XAU / USD pair is trading at the beginning of the European session near the mark of 1336.00, 130 points above the support level of 1323.00 (January and March highs), but 80 points ($ 8) below the local resistance level of 1346.00 (multi-monthly and annual highs).
While XAU / USD is above the key support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level of 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the bullish trend remains.
There is a strong positive impulse that supports XAU / USD and it emerged after a sharp weakening of the dollar, aggravating trade contradictions between the US and China, and Mexico, as well as after yesterday’s speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He said that the Fed, if necessary, will take "appropriate measures to support growth" of the economy.
Usually, when the Fed raises the interest rate, the price of gold decreases as the cost of its acquisition and storage increases. With the easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and the growing uncertainty in the financial markets, the demand for gold and its price increase.
An alternative scenario implies a resumption of dollar growth and a decline in XAU / USD to a key support level of 1277.00.
The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1323.00 (ЕМА200 on the 15-minute chart and the highs of January, March). Farther targets for the decline are at support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows).
Support Levels: 1323.00, 1310.00, 1302.00, 1291.00, 1282.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1346.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1322.00. Stop-Loss 1340.00. Take-Profit 1310.00, 1302.00, 1291.00, 1282.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1340.00. Stop Loss 1322.00. Take-Profit 1346.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
06/06/2019
As expected by many market participants, the European Central Bank on Thursday left interest rates unchanged. In a statement following the meeting on Thursday, the ECB confirmed its intention to leave the key rate at the current level of -0.40% at least until the end of the year and continue to reinvest the income from bonds into the debt portfolio.
The euro reacted quite restrained to this news, while the EUR / USD pair rose only by 38 points, to the level of 1.1272.
Now market participants will closely follow the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi at the press conference, which will begin at 12:30 (GMT). Draghi will present new forecasts by ECB economists, which may reflect lower expectations for economic growth next year. He will also present the conditions of a new long-term lending program for banks.
With the escalation of risks to the global economy, the uncertainties associated with Brexit and the situation in Italy and after the recent elections to the European Parliament, Mario Draghi can still allow the ECB’s softer monetary policy to be possible in its speech.
If he gives a signal in this direction, the euro may sharply decline, despite its restrained reaction after the ECB published its decision on interest rates.
Also at this time (12:30 GMT) data on the balance of foreign trade, non-agricultural labor productivity and applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published. Positive statistics from the US can give a positive impetus to the dollar and negatively affect the dynamics of EUR / USD. And, conversely, weak macro data from the United States will put pressure on the dollar.
Meanwhile, after the publication of the ECB decision, the DXY dollar index dropped another 18 points to 97.00, while the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1262 mark.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1315 (EMA144), 1.1365 (EMA200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics prevail.
After the breakdown of the local support level of 1.1200, a further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at the support levels of 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000 is likely.
Support Levels: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1315, 1.1365

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1280. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1315, 1.1365

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
06/07/2019
Last Thursday, the ECB, as is well known, kept its monetary policy unchanged, leaving key interest rates unchanged.
During the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the ECB is “ready to act and use all the tools at its disposal”, hinting that the bank is ready to lower rates or take other measures if necessary.
Nevertheless, the EUR / USD pair rose, and the euro peaked from April 17 after the ECB meeting.
Many economists believe that if the Fed starts to soften the policy, the ECB will probably do the same. Probably already in July, the ECB will announce a rate cut, if the Fed also softens the policy.
On Friday, the euro and the EUR / USD pair are falling, and the dollar strengthens on the eve of the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market. According to the forecast, in May, 180,000 new jobs were created in the American economy, while unemployment remained at 3.6%. If the data turns out to be weaker than the predicted values, then the dollar may briefly, but drop sharply.
During this period, a surge in volatility is expected. In the event of a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1220 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), EUR / USD will return to a bearish trend. The first signal for this will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1258 (ЕМА200 on the 15-minute chart, ЕМА50 on the 1-hour chart) with targets located at the support levels of 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000.
Below the key resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1310 (EMA144), 1.1365 (EMA200 on the daily chart) the bearish EUR / USD trend prevails.

Support Levels: 1.1258, 1.1220, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1310, 1.1365

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1250. Stop Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1220, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1290. Stop Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1365