The FTSE

[ukhero]

ukhero
I enjoy reading your positings and like yourself try to call the daily FTSE and use spreadbets. For today, my idea is that there will be a 10-15 pts rise followed by a fall to finish in negative territory.

regards
Ftsemad

Hi FTSEmad,

welcome to T2W.

I'm pleased you stated your thoughts on the FTSE before it opens, it shows conviction.

Its 15:15hrs,

FTSE up 10pts, DJ up 20pts.

It the DJ climbs higher will the FTSE follow. I think not - but lets see.

FTSEmad, you mention a fall later in the day, any particular reason behind that bold prediction?

In all, good luck.

Yours

UK

 

[Ftsemad]

UKhero

I use my own model that is a simple idea on market movements based on previous days close price. The indication this morning was either a close at +17 or -1 compared to last nights closing price. Given that it opened high, I simply assumed that the rest of the day was going to be spent going south although I seemed to have called it incorrectly and it looks as though it will finish around the +17 mark.

Best regards
peter

 

[Ftsemad]

Am happy with performace of model but my constant problem is how to make money on the spreadbets. As today demonstrates, model usually is able to provide two choices for the close and margin of error is usually about 3pts. However the problem always seems to be choosing which of the predictions is correct.

Help
peter

 

[ukhero]

FTSE Charts

hi guys

what apparatus to use to see intraday ftse100 volumes, maybe like 10 minute bars. what software to use for ftse100 daytrading? one that can show realtime prices and volumes as well.

seems ftse is making a double top and aiming back to 5000

Hi Yourf16,

In regards to charting its each to his/her own as to what is used. Whatever you feel provides you with sufficient information that suites your trading style. Sorry, that wasn't meant to sound so diplomatic.

Personally I use a mixture of charts, namely Capital spreads real time Java and BT's FTSE charts [15mins delay time]. Both provide me with the data I need.

 

[ukhero]

Am happy with performace of model but my constant problem is how to make money on the spreadbets. As today demonstrates, model usually is able to provide two choices for the close and margin of error is usually about 3pts. However the problem always seems to be choosing which of the predictions is correct.

Help
peter

FTSEmad,

Step away from the charts a little. In regards to the FTSE, charts should only be used as a general guide, a basic indicator as to which way it may go. Charting provides me with about 10 -25% information on the FTSE's possible direction, the rest is a mixture drawn from several sources.

As to making money with Spread Betting; Yup, it involves doing plenty of homework prior to the actual betting.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday, 12th September 2005

Fridays results:

Open: 5340

Close: 5359, up 18pts.

Range: 5340 - 5362

I said Thursday we'd see a small 5-10pts rise, I was pretty close.

On the week the FTSE is up 22pts which is in line for the month of September.

Dow: 10678, up 82pts.

DOW & others for the week, the Dow ended up 2.2 percent, its biggest gain in nearly 4 months. The Standard & Poor's 500 ended the week 1.9 percent higher, and Nasdaq advanced 1.6 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 82.63 points, or 0.78 percent, at 10,678.56 and the S&P 500 Index was up 9.81 points, or 0.80 percent, at 1,241.48. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 9.48 points, or 0.44 percent, at 2,175.51; and we have to ask, have they moved too quick? Even so, all positive moves that will add an element of strength to a possible FTSE rise this coming week.

This Monday:

News items of note: Reuters. OPEC to raise output by 2 mln bpd. This is a positive move that may nudge all the markets upward.

Oil: Fridays price: $64.08. We may see it slip further back by Friday.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: a possible slide back to 5340, ending up on the weeks close by 30-50pts.. But what do they know!

Companies reporting: A whole bundle for Monday and throughout the week. Based on early signs we could see a buoyant market pushing the market up and well beyond the norm for this point in the month.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: a difficult one, but aren't they all! data and news say a rise; the month and charts say a slight dip;

Gut feeling: a rise 15 -27pts.

Will I bet? I'm sill rolling over, and what is now, a slight loss from Thursday. However, I'm confident the market will rise sufficiently throughout this coming week to be well ahead for the month.

P.s This is an early post for Monday which I may edit late Sunday night.

yours


UK

 

[ukhero]

No change to the above.

NI has caused a stir, but I don't think this will affect the FTSE this coming week.

Morrisons. It don't look good! But this will not adversely effect the market. I do see in the near future a possible takeover from another major company, but not UK based. Give it another 3-4 months. Worth watching.

News; LONDON, England (Reuters) -- Royal Dutch Shell said it was ramping up crude production in the U.S. Gulf which had been shut in following Hurricane Katrina, but warned output would remain at low levels for months to come. This contradicts other news. It is a small negative for the FTSE.

LONDON (AFX) - An October rate cut from the Bank of England is likely, the Institute of Directors said today after the central bank kept its key repo rate unchanged at 4.50 pct. This is a big plus for the FTSE. Watch closely.

In all, the above adds to a FTSE rise.

Yours

UK

 

[Ftsemad]

Firmly believe that FTSE will rise about 16 on the day but could go higher to slightly above 30 - which one is the question?

 

[ukhero]

Firmly believe that FTSE will rise about 16 on the day but could go higher to slightly above 30 - which one is the question?

So, 16 or 30pts!

Well both are in the same direction but I think thirty is a bit strong for September/Monday, but its possible.

yours

UK

 

[Ftsemad]

Love it when a plan goes right - must control the hubris. Off to blow the winnings once I finish the day job.

 

[saj123]

I got 2 hand it 2 u ukhero - u do the business and i do enjoy reading ur msgs. I do the dailys but my hearts in my mouth every time i do it! - 2mos im ready to go for a "UP" and close the investment as soon as i reach my obligatory 10 points!

Looking forward 2 ur post.

 

[rav700]

Yet another very valuable thread....
Well done ukhero you have been doing pretty well on your predics.
Just wanted to know how many pound a point you guys trade on ftse...

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday, 13th September 2005

Mondays results:

Open: 5359

Close: 5375, up 15.8pts.

Range: 5359 - 5380

I said Sunday we'd see a rise of 15-27pts rise, and its important to note that 5386 is the highest point to date for the year. All indicators and news pointed to a possible new high today, but as we saw it fell a touch short. Was I too bold in my prediction - NO.

Dow: 10682, up 4pts. Quite a mixed day.

Oil: $63.08. Down. Good news.

This Tuesday:

Charts, and nothing but the charts: No major clues, a slight FTSE rise perhaps.

Weather: Pleasant. Good news.

Companies reporting: Several companies reporting and two I expect to produce bad results. Not good.

News: James Sturcke and agencies state that the impact of the London bombings continued to be felt last month after high street sales were shown today to have slumped 11.5% in the capital. - Rubbish! Perhaps a drop of 4-7% can be attributed to the bombings but no more; London has a history of bombings as far back as Guy Fawkes; Londoners are gutsy people well tutored to the possibility of explosions and the mayhem it causes and so there are other underlining reasons for this large slump.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: a slight rise with a busy shuffle around the 5386 mark; September is the wrong month to bid, break and continue to rise well beyond the year high with deliberate momentum; if it does go beyond the high I strongly believe it will fall back.

Gut feeling: a small rise, 8pts. Will it break 5386? Yes and drop back.

Will I bet? Unless additional and earth shaking news comes to light, NO.

yours


UK

 

[ukhero]

Love it when a plan goes right - must control the hubris. Off to blow the winnings once I finish the day job.

FTSEmad,

Don't pop the champagne just yet. September is a dry, laconic month with lots of ups and downs but in general very little total movement. Those who Spread bet are easily caught out. Best save your profits for a big thumper of a day.

But who am I talking! To hell with it, get the beers in!

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

I got 2 hand it 2 u ukhero - u do the business and i do enjoy reading ur msgs. I do the dailys but my hearts in my mouth every time i do it! - 2mos im ready to go for a "UP" and close the investment as soon as i reach my obligatory 10 points!

Looking forward 2 ur post.

Welcome Saj123,

Close when you reach 10pts, you say. A good and sensible way to trade. In my opinion this month is going to be difficult for you to continually make a clean 10 point gain. As an idea, have you considered [at the beginning of the month] buying futures and letting them run until you reach, lets say, 100 points.

As always, with all investment/betting there is a risk mucking up the ointment of profitability.

Yours

UK

 

[saj123]

To Ukhero

Iv thort about futures - but i never get round to it ( may seem silly!) and i think im 2 impatient and greedy! - the dailys carry with a 4point spread which i love and it jus seems gr8 when a profit comes in daily!. I do intend going onto the futures as less risk involved there.

How long have u been trading then - ur predictions in the past have been fairly accurate im assuming u do this as a full time gig???

Do u also spread bet on shares?? - iv done shares in the past and the next share 2 rocket IMHO is emerald energy ( also tipped by Robbie Burns)

Anyway keep posting your predictions - u shud jus get ur own website sorted so ur fans can directly see what bet ur doing!! lol

 

[ukhero]

Yet another very valuable thread....
Well done ukhero you have been doing pretty well on your predics.
Just wanted to know how many pound a point you guys trade on ftse...

Welcome Rav700,

How many £'s per point?

Minimum £1, maximum £500. Just like the min/max on the SB sites.

I've discovered within the forum that its deemed unprofessional and arrogant to quote £'s gained in a set time period. Its more eloquent and professional to say how many points you've gained/lost. Let the reader decide what could have been gained/lost by betting X amount. To date [this year] I'm up 198pts. Not my best year as I've made some bad judgement calls, but June was a good month which helped the year total.

We climb, stumble, stand up and move on. We never cease to learn nor falter in our ambition to climb higher. -HePo

Yours, eating caviare off the thighs of a virgin [just joking]

UK

 

[rav700]

Thanks for you help....
There is a site called fx guru.net
There they give out ftse predictions for next day.
They are saying that tommorow should be a strong buy day
I think the morning session will be slow awaiting the results in the uk to determine the day ahead.
So I think that 10-12 point till 1:30 and then the market will head downwards.......
Sorry about the £'s per point question...it just seemed natural..
Thanks
For your help

 

[ukhero]

To Ukhero

Iv thort about futures - but i never get round to it ( may seem silly!) and i think im 2 impatient and greedy! - the dailys carry with a 4point spread which i love and it jus seems gr8 when a profit comes in daily!. I do intend going onto the futures as less risk involved there.

How long have u been trading then - ur predictions in the past have been fairly accurate im assuming u do this as a full time gig???

Do u also spread bet on shares?? - iv done shares in the past and the next share 2 rocket IMHO is emerald energy ( also tipped by Robbie Burns)

Anyway keep posting your predictions - u shud jus get ur own website sorted so ur fans can directly see what bet ur doing!! lol

Saj123,

The FTSE index sept, 5374-5378 [spread 4pts with Capital spreads].

Its worth betting a £1 per point and letting it run. I don't anticipate September rising/falling by much. Wait until it dips, perhaps Wednesday and then go with the flow.

The market is still on an up at the moment so I'm confident that you wont lose your home on my recommendation. Suck it and see, as they say.

If you did this in June and July of this year you would have gained the best part of 100pts per month, whereas Aug you would have seen it expire at roughly evens. Sept is laconic, don't expect big daily rises. But I do see a 70-130 gain from start to finish. Sept is up at the moment by 21pts.

How long have I been trading?

I've been on and off [like most people from time to time] since 1985. Been trading the past three years on behalf of a business man. I spread bet. I also have a full time job with a UK bank [it helps with the info!!!] I have done single shares over the years and Rio Tinto is my hot fav at the moment [made a small 10pts gain today]. I SB the FTSE which I'm strong at and the DJ which I'm moderate, but all this may change soon as this time of year the Indices are slow. Hoping for a major happening that will shake the markets.

My comments are purely for interest and you must make your own judgement call as to the markets direction.

'It never ceases to amaze me: when the markets open, with its 50-50 call, I see so many heads running aimlessly around with commercial tails in their mouths as to wonder when the coin of certainty will ever fall.' - HePo

 

[ukhero]

Thanks for you help....
There is a site called fx guru.net
There they give out ftse predictions for next day.
They are saying that tommorow should be a strong buy day
I think the morning session will be slow awaiting the results in the uk to determine the day ahead.
So I think that 10-12 point till 1:30 and then the market will head downwards.......
Sorry about the £'s per point question...it just seemed natural..
Thanks
For your help

Hi rav700,

A number of questions here.

All I can say is this: you can use my predictions as a tool, surf the net and acquire as much thought and knowledge as you can towards a markets possible direction. That done, make a judgement call. If your right glorify in your ability to pick its direction, if wrong, consider learning why. Believe me, there is no easy road. Home work is best done by yourself.

Putting that aside, what's your gut feeling?

I will go with you on the potential market fluctuation. I'm watching the news as I write....

News: I'm not happy with the panic buying of petrol in the UK. Institutional buyers don't like this, given the choice they'll put off buying until another day. This is bad for the FTSE. Notch it down two points. Riots in Belfast continue. No immediate impact on the FTSE.

All the best for tomorrow

UK