The FTSE

[slyone]

Hi everyone,

Thanks for your thoughts. I believe that if the FTSE closes up today (Friday) then buy looking for a profit of 35 to 40 points in the coming week.

If the FTSE continues rising above 5390 then it should continue rising.

If it peaks around 5390 and turns downwards, this will mean the end of the uptrend. Look to go short (especially after it closes below 5260). The FTSE has risen a staggering 10% in the last 3 months, so beware of a correction, maybe to the previous major peak of 5080.

Zak

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, 22nd Aug - 26th AUG. Open 5312

What do I see this week? Your guess is as good as mine.

Annoyingly, all my print outs of graphs and such like of the FTSE are in the bedroom, and its 12am, and the girlfriend is asleep and I'm not brave enough to disturb her, so I'm going on limited data here.

As I've said before, I'm staying out of the market until I'm more confident of its direction.

But I will add, oil has taken a side step, shuffled to stage right. But I'm not convinced that it wont return in the next act. However, putting this fickle and annoying commodity aside, and all things being even, I see a small climb for the week, 30-50pts.

I'll post more when data is closer at hand.

Observations: of late, the FTSE most days appears to make its bed between 11am and 1pm, thereafter it will climb/ fall by 10-25pts. So whatever you decide, and if your looking for quick profit and not too sure of the markets final direction, make a concrete decision to get out before lunch.

Yours

UK

 

[Traderuk]

I did hold call warrants that i bought on thursday. I sold today after the FTSE looked too weak to go positive tomorrow, and Us markets seem weak/negative. if I can stay up long enough, I will look to Asia to see what happens there.

Oil looms large on the horizon, so I have bought into oil warrants instead.

 

[ukhero]

Traderuk,

I've neither studied nor dabbled in the warrants market so all the best.

FTSE open: 5312

FTSE close: 5318, up 5 pts.

Such a small, and perhaps to some, an insignificant rise. But a rise all the same. Did you notice that the FTSE almost reached 5330 by 10am? There's a lesson there. Of late, and even with stirring company results, the FTSE sometimes waits to see what America will do. As I've said before, she [the FTSE] of late makes her bed by 12am, so make your decision early. Remember, stand by your convictions and do your home work.

All things known and happenings being even: tomorrow, 23rd August, company reports: not enough to move the market.

Oil: still a pain.

Time of year: lethargic.

Economic calender: a boring day.

Prediction: the FTSE will move no more than 15pts either way.

Gut feeling: I'll lay odds of 2-1 of a rise.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

FTSE

Tomorrow, 24th August, with the present data at hand, it looks like a strong fall for the FTSE.

My estimate: down 20pts.

yours

UK

 

[Traderuk]

Another fall on thursday as well?

The US markets arent happy.

 

[Racer]

Quotas on China on textiles..

Oh dear, will they ever learn.. no not the Chinese!

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE

Thursday, 25th August.

So we had a down slide of 25pts, so predicted. And what will we have today?

The FTSE has had quite a slide of late; Wall Street is struggling; oil is playing her part and the month is notorious for little-to-do.

On the up side, several companies are declaring end of year accounts; all seems settled on the oil front; nothing new in the world news [at the moment] and there are plenty of brokers out there looking for cheap bargains.

I see a slight rise, 3-12pts. But to be honest its an even spread as to which way it will go.

But don't take my comments as what may be, do your own home work.

As always watch the FTSE open and keep a close eye on Wall Street.

Yours

UK

 

[Racer]

oil closed at record high... FTSE is a lot of oils but... tax on petrol in UK is crippling, combine that with high oil price, ouch to the economy. and high interest rates and consumer slow down....

 

[ukhero]

So true Racer.

In the long term, oil will drag the FTSE down. No if's or but's.

UK

 

[slyone]

Hi

The uptrend of the FTSE has come to an end. An uptrend is characterised by higher bottoms, whereas a downtrend is characterised by lower high peaks.

However, I don’t see how oil prices can bring down the FTSE. The oil companies will make more money if oil prices rise, especially because there is no real alternative to oil. Remember oil is an inelastic commodity.

Zak

 

[Racer]

yes agree with that but if the price rises too high it will not be if the consumer is strapped for cash

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, 26th August.

25th August.

Open: 5275

Close: 5255

Down 19pts.

So, Friday, up or down?

We are coming up to a bank holiday and historically its normally a down day; buyers finishing work early I suppose.

FTSE third day in a row down.

Dow Jones is heading down.

No major UK companies producing end of year results.

Weather is grim.

Oil is on the march again; there's reports of a major typhoon building up in the Caribbean and there's turmoil in Iraq.

I think that's more then enough clues as to which way the FTSE is headed.

I shall be making a heavy down bet on the FTSE tomorrow unless news flashes say otherwise. Wish me luck.

Prediction: same as today, up down, finishing between 10 and 25pts down. I will make
my final decision at 8.55am.

Yours

Head on the block.

UK

 

[ukhero]

Hi

The uptrend of the FTSE has come to an end. An uptrend is characterised by higher bottoms, whereas a downtrend is characterised by lower high peaks.

However, I don’t see how oil prices can bring down the FTSE. The oil companies will make more money if oil prices rise, especially because there is no real alternative to oil. Remember oil is an inelastic commodity.

Zak

I agree, Slyone.



The heavy rise in oil [and some may say not justified] makes the market nervous. But remember what makes the market rise: greed and profit.

If FTSE companies have to pay a heavy premium for oil it reduces there profits. This, I may hasten to add, is not the case for of all the FTSE companies, such as banks; were as haulage companies may suffer the worse for wear.

In general, a major fluctuation in world happenings makes investors weary of purchasing, and so, what we have is a gentle slide of confidence. Stock holders are more likely to sell [and at a lower bid/offer price] then buy. Of course it doesn't make sense, companies are producing bumper results, the economy is sound. But we have to go back to basics. If life throws a long term negative at the market you'll see what we have now.

Don't ignore the long term financial effects of high priced oil, it will fuel [forgive the pun] long term discontent amongst the buyers.

Take away oil as a major impact on the FTSE and we what we should have is a steady rise. In fact, it should be 5420 by now. Such is life.

Yours

UK

 

[leovirgo]

FTSE is up at 5274. I think it is filling up yesterday's down gap. Any chance for it to finish down for today?

I say 'Hi' to all, I am new but you will see me around. It's very nice to be in this community.

 

[ukhero]

Watching it now.

FTSE 5266, up 10pts.

I was delayed travelling to work, and having not read any of the morning news decided to stay out of the market, just as well, as we can see it has risen.

Will it go down later today?

The clocks say 2:30pm, America's Wall street appears to be sliding; Yes, I can see the FTSE falling in line.

But keep a close eye on WS.

Uk

 

[wasp]

Indicators! Hah!

Last time I bother with one of those...

Shorted at 80 and then went long at 74... put on a tight (ish) stop and had to leave my desk.

Just returned... I honestly thought it was going down but I followed the indicator and ... !

Beer time!

 

[ukhero]

Hi Wasp

Indicators! Indicators for the FTSE! You must be mad!

Never use them myself, but if its works for you...

Yours

UK

 

[wasp]

I think I've just discovered they don't!

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, 30th August.

Up or Down?

First, lets look at what history can tell us in regards to the Tuesday following this particular Bank Holiday Monday: over the past 10 years the FTSE has been down no fewer then eight times. That's Odds of 4-1 that it will fall. That's pretty cool odds considering the FTSE is a 50-50 bet.

What about oil prices: as predicted, still rising.

Dow Jones: a strong rise yesterday and I envisage another rise tomorrow. This adds strength to an early FTSE rise.

Interesting News report:

OPEC to mull output increase to dampen soaring prices. KUWAIT CITY, Aug. 29 (Xinhuanet) -- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) chief said Monday that the cartel will mull an output increase in the September meeting to rein in soaring oil prices.

Oil hits $70 as Katrina strikes CNN International
Oil prices strike new record highs above 70 usd a barrel Forbes.

This above report adds strength to a FTSE and another DJ rise.

Buyers are bored. Last Fridays trade was abysmal, but they've had a long weekend to mull things over and there's plenty of cheap bargains out there.

Companys reporting: Brunzl; Filtrona; Hammerson. These alone will not move the market, but I expect all there results to be positive.

In general, and taking a number of other factors into consideration too numerous to mention here, I see a moderate rise for the day 'IF' the DJ is not too adversely negative.

Gut feeling based on home work and present News: Rise, 20 - 27pts.

But Would I Bet? And the answer is simply NO! There are too many major factors hammering tomorrows FTSE too sensibly predict its direction and therefore the above is for interest only.

I know from account depleting experience that some days its just best to sit back and watch, and besides, there'll be other days when I can predict the FTSE with a greater degree certainty.


Yours

UK