A thank you to all for the professional inputs.
So Monday had a FTSE rise, a chunky 29pts. Did we bet? I did. Of sorts!
Having spent hours over charts and results my final decision was based on a pure gut feeling. And some say, 'thats what its all about.'
And this will make you laugh: normally I'm up with the birds to make my bet, but decided to lay a small up bet via Capital Gains the night before as I fancied a lie in. At 9:30am, I heard the morning news of a strong FTSE rise, skipped along I did to the computer only to find that the market [according to CG] had opened up 9pts above the prior close and therefore didn't go through my bet. Hence no bet and no gain. I'm not happy. But I learned.
Back to the FTSE. Over the past two weeks she appears to be straining to get ahead like a hungry rottweiler with the DOW leaning back on the leash. She's trying her best to push forward. I still see a rise tomorrow and as such I'll be up with the birds and refuse collectors with a mind to place an up bet. We'll see at 7am. I love watching the FTSE dress.
Historic data: Tuesdays this year: 19 up against 7 down; added to that if the prior Monday was an up: a further 3 Tuesdays up against 4 down.
My own points system: 8 - 1 - 2, this means, I see a potential 20 point rise against a possibility that the market will finish no more then 8 pts from opening.
Yours
UK
So Monday had a FTSE rise, a chunky 29pts. Did we bet? I did. Of sorts!
Having spent hours over charts and results my final decision was based on a pure gut feeling. And some say, 'thats what its all about.'
And this will make you laugh: normally I'm up with the birds to make my bet, but decided to lay a small up bet via Capital Gains the night before as I fancied a lie in. At 9:30am, I heard the morning news of a strong FTSE rise, skipped along I did to the computer only to find that the market [according to CG] had opened up 9pts above the prior close and therefore didn't go through my bet. Hence no bet and no gain. I'm not happy. But I learned.
Back to the FTSE. Over the past two weeks she appears to be straining to get ahead like a hungry rottweiler with the DOW leaning back on the leash. She's trying her best to push forward. I still see a rise tomorrow and as such I'll be up with the birds and refuse collectors with a mind to place an up bet. We'll see at 7am. I love watching the FTSE dress.
Historic data: Tuesdays this year: 19 up against 7 down; added to that if the prior Monday was an up: a further 3 Tuesdays up against 4 down.
My own points system: 8 - 1 - 2, this means, I see a potential 20 point rise against a possibility that the market will finish no more then 8 pts from opening.
Yours
UK
Windlesham1
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As one who has been short the FTSE for some time-(this is the 4th time ftse has risen against me) I am by nature,sceptical,and expect the' truth' to emerge any minute about the impending crises in the economy,as we are utterly reliant on foreign commodities,and cheap Chinese imports. The UK is what-a few banks and insurance companies?
I'm all out of ideas as TA hasn't worked,and fundamentals make no sense-if the economy's ok why lower interest rates?
I'm all out of ideas as TA hasn't worked,and fundamentals make no sense-if the economy's ok why lower interest rates?
Well I had predicted a major FTSE rise today, but I guess, we should except an 8pt rise as a success.
Wednesday: I see a small drop.
My own point system: 10 - 16, this means, a 10pt rise against a potential 16 drop.
At the moment Thursday looks like a 20pt+ rise.
As always, lets wait and see which hat the FTSE puts on tomorrow morning.
Yours
UK
Wednesday: I see a small drop.
My own point system: 10 - 16, this means, a 10pt rise against a potential 16 drop.
At the moment Thursday looks like a 20pt+ rise.
As always, lets wait and see which hat the FTSE puts on tomorrow morning.
Yours
UK
ukhero said:
UKHERO,
I really dont think you can plan the ftse that far ahead. So many things affect it, news from the US oil prices etc. There is no way you can predict how many points it will go up in 2 days time. For example, a lot of people were saying that it would fall today. But because of the strong US finish last night it helped the ftse rise today.
Liam,
Your quite right, it's not possible to predict the FTSE with absolute certainty. No one can say for sure what it will do next month, next week, today or even within the swing of a clocks hand, but I'd like to think that when the data is analysed and the odd prediction thrown in it provides us with a greater chance of correctly forecasting the FTSE's path.
And yes there are many parameters that effect the FTSE as to whether it will go up or down, oil being the favourite at the moment. We throw them all into the pot.
As to how many points will the FTSE move, for me, here in the forum, its just a bit of fun.
Hoping for a small fall myself, but as I'm writing this its up 21pts and so my prediction for Thursday grows weaker somewhat.
Yours
UK
Your quite right, it's not possible to predict the FTSE with absolute certainty. No one can say for sure what it will do next month, next week, today or even within the swing of a clocks hand, but I'd like to think that when the data is analysed and the odd prediction thrown in it provides us with a greater chance of correctly forecasting the FTSE's path.
And yes there are many parameters that effect the FTSE as to whether it will go up or down, oil being the favourite at the moment. We throw them all into the pot.
As to how many points will the FTSE move, for me, here in the forum, its just a bit of fun.
Hoping for a small fall myself, but as I'm writing this its up 21pts and so my prediction for Thursday grows weaker somewhat.
Yours
UK
The FTSE rose on Wednesday and therefore I got it wrong, up 13pts.
So how does this effect my prediction for a large substantial rise on Thursday: there's a lot of activity ahead; the American markets appear to be on an up trend; oil prices are beginning to lose there adverse impetuous and interest rate cuts / rises have now been laid neatly before us. So, in effect, I believe the markets will go where they want to go, which I believe is up.
The FTSE has had three up days in a row this week; year to date, four up days in a row has only occurred twice. However, so far this week, the FTSE has gained a total of 63pts in what I consider a strong rising market. By my calculations it's well behind.
So, do I still believe in a medium to strong rise tomorrow? Head on the block, Yes!
I would add by how many points, but I hold back for fear of mockery.
No prediction for Friday yet.
Yours
UK
P.s ********! 33pts!
So how does this effect my prediction for a large substantial rise on Thursday: there's a lot of activity ahead; the American markets appear to be on an up trend; oil prices are beginning to lose there adverse impetuous and interest rate cuts / rises have now been laid neatly before us. So, in effect, I believe the markets will go where they want to go, which I believe is up.
The FTSE has had three up days in a row this week; year to date, four up days in a row has only occurred twice. However, so far this week, the FTSE has gained a total of 63pts in what I consider a strong rising market. By my calculations it's well behind.
So, do I still believe in a medium to strong rise tomorrow? Head on the block, Yes!
I would add by how many points, but I hold back for fear of mockery.
No prediction for Friday yet.
Yours
UK
P.s ********! 33pts!
Well I got stuffed today. I said the FTSE would rise for the second time this week and I was wrong. In total I'm 11pts down on the week. Oil is a black eyed culprit. Once again it raised its ugly head and the FTSE suffered accordingly. So what can by learned this. Its obvious that my calculations need adjusting, I need to double my predicted negatives in regards to oils adverse effect.
So what about Friday. FTSE opening: If there's no dramatic rise in the oil price, or news related items of such, I see a sharp rise followed by a gentle clime. And yes, we could see what I'd predicted yesterday. But lets be sensible. The FTSE may have shot its bolt for the week when it ended 30pts up on Monday; in all, this week, its up 44pts. I consider this about right for the 2nd week in August in what is regarded as a rising market with oil as it is.
So what can historical data for the past 5 years provide for the second week of August:
2004: Down 31pts [steady market]
2003: Up 100pts [rising market]
2002: Up 8pts [down market]
2001: Down 20pts [evens market]
2000: Up 21 pts [rising market]
No clear indicator there.
I have a long bet running for the week, if the FTSE opens up with a smile I'll cash in shortly before 12am, if it drops I'll cancel it and end the week with a loss.
Looking forward to next week.
Yours
UK
So what about Friday. FTSE opening: If there's no dramatic rise in the oil price, or news related items of such, I see a sharp rise followed by a gentle clime. And yes, we could see what I'd predicted yesterday. But lets be sensible. The FTSE may have shot its bolt for the week when it ended 30pts up on Monday; in all, this week, its up 44pts. I consider this about right for the 2nd week in August in what is regarded as a rising market with oil as it is.
So what can historical data for the past 5 years provide for the second week of August:
2004: Down 31pts [steady market]
2003: Up 100pts [rising market]
2002: Up 8pts [down market]
2001: Down 20pts [evens market]
2000: Up 21 pts [rising market]
No clear indicator there.
I have a long bet running for the week, if the FTSE opens up with a smile I'll cash in shortly before 12am, if it drops I'll cancel it and end the week with a loss.
Looking forward to next week.
Yours
UK
Windlesham1
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I'm awaiting a correction to ease the pain of short ftse calls. I figure a trip down to 5200 is on the cards,but there are too many risks for little reward for downside plays. Options volatility is at a 9 year low-mainly because hedge funds have killed the options market,by selling too cheap. Just my 4 pen'orth
Windlesham, right on target, ' too many risks for little reward.'
Oil has laid her hand on the FTSE and this is far as I can go. I've had a good seven months playing the FTSE, but now it's not possible to predict it with any decree of certainty. I might as well toss a coin. It seems irrelevant at the moment if a bag of companies produce bumper results, oil pulls them all down.
I heard an annalist the other day quote that oil will reach $70 a barrel in the next three weeks. Ouch!
Even when companies are declaring solid results it's still possible to have a down slide. However, its all too unpredictable.
I'm considering moving to the FX. The Canadian Dollar should improve against other major currencies. Lets see.
Yours
UK
Oil has laid her hand on the FTSE and this is far as I can go. I've had a good seven months playing the FTSE, but now it's not possible to predict it with any decree of certainty. I might as well toss a coin. It seems irrelevant at the moment if a bag of companies produce bumper results, oil pulls them all down.
I heard an annalist the other day quote that oil will reach $70 a barrel in the next three weeks. Ouch!
Even when companies are declaring solid results it's still possible to have a down slide. However, its all too unpredictable.
I'm considering moving to the FX. The Canadian Dollar should improve against other major currencies. Lets see.
Yours
UK
Windlesham1
Established member
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I am still paper trading FX but the moves are good and not completely silly like ftse. I use a free platform -Metatrader which has more facilities than Centre Parcs
Today's FTSE
Well, it reached a high of 5,367 by midday and then dropped to 5,344, which was just under its opening price. It doesn't realy know where to go. It's still to unpredictable.
The FTSE tomorrow: if it rises again and there's nothing strong in the air to inspire or drive it cash in early before noon. If the FTSE falls before Wall Street opens pack up early and have an extra long pub lunch.
The FTSE this week: it looks very sedate. No big moves anticipated.
Well, it reached a high of 5,367 by midday and then dropped to 5,344, which was just under its opening price. It doesn't realy know where to go. It's still to unpredictable.
The FTSE tomorrow: if it rises again and there's nothing strong in the air to inspire or drive it cash in early before noon. If the FTSE falls before Wall Street opens pack up early and have an extra long pub lunch.
The FTSE this week: it looks very sedate. No big moves anticipated.
I'm staying out of the ftse this week. Its so dammed unpredictable.
Today we observed a moderate drop. I don't anticipate any major rises, and perhaps there lies a decent bet. The FTSE is falling. Wall Street and Oil are dragging it down. I'm holding my hand up here when I say I'm totally useless at predicting down turns, so call what you may.
UK
Today we observed a moderate drop. I don't anticipate any major rises, and perhaps there lies a decent bet. The FTSE is falling. Wall Street and Oil are dragging it down. I'm holding my hand up here when I say I'm totally useless at predicting down turns, so call what you may.
UK
17.8 Posture: Alllow bearish spillover from US markets to run its course. When price confirms look for some scalping longs.
Key Event: No action until the BOE minutes are digested (8:30 gmt)
Pivot: 5332 R1: 5350 R2:5375 R3:5390 S1: 5305 S2:5290 S3:5265
Key Event: No action until the BOE minutes are digested (8:30 gmt)
Pivot: 5332 R1: 5350 R2:5375 R3:5390 S1: 5305 S2:5290 S3:5265
