The FTSE

[ukhero]

The FTSE, 30st August.

Open: 5228

Close: 5255

Up: 27pts.

I woke with the birds. Watched the FTSE open and it looked good.

Today was my best day this year for profit. Played the FTSE, switched to the Dow and then back to the FTSE. We're talking four figure profit here.

The FTSE, 31st August.

The Dow's down 50pts. At its worst, it was down over 100pts. This is not good for the FTSE.

Companies reporting: a mixed bag of results. Perhaps a small negative.

Weather: us brits love sunny days, we don't get enough. So when the sun shines, historically, we decide to buy early.

Graphs: Bollinger says a possible up.

News: Oil continues, and will continue, to affect the markets adversely. No other news at hand.

The FTSE Up or Down?

A small early morning rise followed by a long wait to see what the Dow will do.

End of day: 12pts either way.

Gut feeling: small rise.

Would I bet? I'm not convinced, so again, I'll wait till I see which hat the FTSE wears tomorrow morning.

Yours

UK

 

[Racer]

Higher price increases come into force today for gas and electricity
Up by between 7.2% and 11.9%

Add that to record high oil prices.

That is going to do wonders for consumer spending when it is already slowing down a lot

 

[ukhero]

Higher price increases come into force today for gas and electricity
Up by between 7.2% and 11.9%

Add that to record high oil prices.

That is going to do wonders for consumer spending when it is already slowing down a lot

The FTSE, 31st August

Thanks Racer,

I'm sure I caught a glimpse of a news item which stated 12%.

Well, I thought it would rise, but not by 41pts. It doesn't make any sense! But a rise is a rise, and besides, the sun was shining all day.

What's on the cards tomorrow?

Oil, gas and electricity prices are all up.

The DJ is up a healthy 68pts. That wasn't expected.

Companies reporting: a number of big guns could rattle the market tomorrow.

Weather: thunder storms and light showers.

History, its the first of the month:

Over the past ten years the FTSE has risen no less then 8 times on September 1st, of which fifty percent rose by no less then 40pts+.

In general, the FTSE is hinging on 5297 and therefore we might see an up down day and one which is ideal for scalping.

Gut feeling based on present news and data: a moderate rise of 30pts.

Will I bet? Fortune favours the bold...

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, 2nd September

FTSE open: 5296

FTSE close: 5328, up 31pts

So what's the FTSE going to do tomorrow?

So far two solid up days for the FTSE this week while the DJ on the other hand does a little jig and banjo act.

Dow Jones: Down 21pts.

What has history to offer: the FTSE for the month of September over the past 10 years has seen 8 downs; the first week 7 downs. So historically its a bad month for a rise, and bearing in mind current happenings it doesn't look like its possible for the whole month to continue its early heavy up trend.

Five companies reporting. BBA.L and DGE.L may shake the market.

Weather: mild and sunny.

Oil prices dipped. BUT DON'T BE FOOLED!

News items: House prices decline. Read this news item from the Times ref' oil: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9072-1761363,00.html

So, FTSE up or down tomorrow?

It gets tougher as we go through the week. Gut feeling, a small drop of 15 -20pts. But then again...

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

Apologies to the Forum.

In regards to my previous reply about Companies reporting, it should have read 'Not much happening today.'

Such is copy and paste.

Yours

UK

 

[leovirgo]

Hi

Where can I get a good quality ( but not expensive less than £30 per month) real time charting software for FTSE100 as well as DJIA indices? Do Sharescope and TC2000 offer real time charting for indices?

I need some flixibility in parameters input such as changing number of periods for MACD and RSI? thanks..

 

[ukhero]

Welcome Leovirgo,

I follow the FTSE and DJ. In regards to charting, I've found a number of free web sites that provide me with sufficient information for my needs, namely:

http://moneyam.co.uk

http://advfn.com

http://www.digitallook.com/

If my memory serves well, the above can also be upgraded to provide the user with additional charting information.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday, 5th September 2005

Friday:

Open: 5328
Close: 5326, down 2pts.
Days range: 5,319.60 - 5,338

Dow down 12pts.

Monday, up or down?

Several companies reporting: plenty to shake the market; volume should be quite volatile.

Oil: still greasing the market.

DJ: closed Monday.

Weather: mild and sunny.

Bollinger: no clues there.

FTSE: based on present news and data I see a small to medium rise, 22pts.

Will I bet: No. Going with my gut feeling I'm not confident as to which way the market will end.

Yours

UK

 

[leovirgo]

Welcome Leovirgo,

I follow the FTSE and DJ. In regards to charting, I've found a number of free web sites that provide me with sufficient information for my needs, namely:

http://moneyam.co.uk

http://advfn.com

http://www.digitallook.com/

If my memory serves well, the above can also be upgraded to provide the user with additional charting information.

Yours

UK

thanks...

 

[leovirgo]

FTSE appears to be resilient but will it break 5385? Or it could be the beginning of a real down turn?

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE Tuesday, 6th September 2005

Monday:

Open: 5326

Close: 5337, up 11pts

Range: 5320 - 5341

The DJ was closed today.

Tuesday, FTSE up or down?

As I said in a previous post, the FTSE in September is historically a slow month integrated with small gains and losses, so trade tight.

Companies reporting: quite a mixed bag but most are minors.

It has to be noted that there's a lot of take over rumours shuffling boardroom papers this week and I anticipate plenty more. This is good news for a FTSE rise in general.

Oil: ...MY! Hasn't it been quiet!

News items of note: The £1 litre of petrol has arrived, 'The Times.'

From Capital Spreads:

'Due to the increase in Oil and Oil Product volatility, Capital Spreads has unfortunately been forced to increase the initial margin requirement and spread on some of the contracts quoted.'

At last we have some clear indication that oil IS taking its toil.

Charts: No clues.

Weather: This long sticky spell doesn't do the FTSE any favours.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: I don't really know. There isn't enough indication as to which way it will go.

Gut Feeling: a small drop and an equal rise first thing in the morning, but I see the FTSE leaning heavily on the DJ's shoulder for direction later in the afternoon.

Will I bet: NO!


yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday, 7th September 2005

Tuesday:

Open: 5337

Close: 5359, up 21pts

Range: 5337 - 5366

DJ: up 141pts; that wasn't expected and don't be fooled. Its too high a leap and in the wrong direction considering what's happening in America at the moment. But that doesn't necessary mean that it will fall just as much tomorrow. And isn't it strange that the FTSE didn't fall in line! One possibility, may be, is the UK markets are not so easily fooled.

Tomorrow, FTSE up or down?

Companies reporting: Ten major companies share there yearly results, of which, in my opinion, only six will add strength to the market.

On the news tonight: There is a petrol station in the Midlands that is selling petrol at £1.06 per litre. Ouch!

News items of note: BG Group awarded key blocks in 23rd UK Licensing round. BG Group PLC said it welcomed the Department of Trade and Industry's announcement that it has been awarded North Sea blocks 20/2b, 20/3d, and part blocks 13/21b and 22/8a in the 23rd licensing round. 'More oil is what we need.'

Virgin Airlines. Richard Branson's Virgin Atlantic Airways is raising fuel surcharges by £6 on tickets sold in the UK to compensate for rising oil prices. 'I'm sure many others will follow.'

Charts: no clear indications.

Weather: Light showers.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The DJ rise may kick in today pushing the FTSE higher from outset, lets say a 25pts rise. The news about BG Group is good indeed, but oil is beginning to show its ugly black head and so the impact may be not be as strong. Even so, there are a number of positives which should see an early rise in the market.

Gut feeling: early rise of 20 -27pts with a possible hard fall sometime after 2pm.

Will I bet: Yep, why not.

yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday, 8th September 2005

Yesterday:

Open: 5359

Close: 5365, up 6pts

Range: 5358 - 5376

DJ: up a healthy 44pts;

Well I'm not afraid to admit that I did pretty poor today. But a rise is what I predicted and that's what we had.

Tomorrow, FTSE up or down?

Companies reporting: none to shake the market.

News items of note:

House prices rise. LONDON (Reuters) - House prices rose at their fastest rate in almost a year in August after the Bank of England cut interest rates but analysts were sceptical whether the monthly rise was the start of a new upward trend.

Oil industry inches back from Katrina: http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2005/09/07/us_oil_industry_recovering_from_katrina/

Charts: a strong potential rise.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: a modest to strong rise.

Gut feeling: a rise of 15-30pts.

Will I bet: Yes indeed'de.

yours

UK

 

[leovirgo]

FTSE 100 mid-day

13.44 FTSE100 at 5343 (-23pts)

Surely it needs a break after 140pts rise from 5230 over 8 consecutive days.

 

[ukhero]

13.44 FTSE100 at 5343 (-23pts)

Surely it needs a break after 140pts rise from 5230 over 8 consecutive days.

Thanks Leo,

Your comment, although much appreciated, would have had greater impact prior to the markets opening.

Of the eight trading days since 31st Aug, we've had seven rises [avg: 17pts]. But both the DOW and FTSE have been behaving rather oddly of late and as such, and putting many over factors together, I plumped for a moderate rise. Yup, I got it wrong. Hope you did better.

Yours

UK

 

[leovirgo]

Hi UK

I am a fan of your daily prep notes. I'm not as brave as you to make daily trades on ftse.

I've been bearish on FTSE since 5254. How far can it come down from present position? Daily chart starts to show a down swing pattern. What's your view?

thanks..

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday, 9th September 2005

Yesterday:

Open: 5365

Close: 5340 [fall of 25pts]

Range: 5338 - 5365

DJ: down 37pts [anticipated]. Also, I see another slight dip but this is not as strong a signal.

As I mentioned to 'Leo' I got my collar felt today. So why was I so wrong? Simply put, the market fell in line with what it was supposed to do in regards to season rather then what was happening in the world. At the close of play, the FTSE100 was down 25.2 points at 5,340.7 with the FTSE250 43.1 points adrift at 7,807.2. The AIM100 stayed positive throughout, up 37.2 points at 5,753.8. Volume was weak as the allure of the deciding final Ashes test at the Oval helped to keep investors sidelined, with just 2.3 billion shares changing hands in 228,672 deals.

In general this is a mixed bag of results. I don't believe the oil situation has really hit the pockets of buyers and what we saw 'is what should be' for this point of time in the year.

So lets look at September again: if it follows historical data we can see a heavy down slide, but I think it will be more in line with 2004 and 1997, as the FTSE then was closer as to what we have now, and so, I see a 'see saw' throughout the month; open 5328, close at the end of the month no more then 170pts up.

2004: up 70pts

2003: down 104pts

2002: down 460pts

2001: down 409pts

2000: down 501pts

1999: down 247pts

1998: down 105pts

1997: up 374pts

1996: up 86pts

Moving on.

Companies reporting: again none to shake the market.

News items of note: BoE. October rate cut from the Bank of England is likely, the Institute of Directors said today after the central bank kept its key repo rate unchanged at 4.50 pct. Helps towards a market rise. GlaxoSmithKline to acquire Canadian vaccine maker for $1.4 billion. Mmmm, big movement here.

Oil: still quite.

Charts: It touched a low today both for the day and weekly, but a high for 3 months.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: a small rise; 5 to 10pts

Gut feeling: the market could still dip another 10 to 20pts. If your betting take the day off, there'll be other days which will be more predictable.

Will I bet: I'm rolling over yesterdays loss!

yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

Hi UK

I am a fan of your daily prep notes. I'm not as brave as you to make daily trades on ftse.

I've been bearish on FTSE since 5254. How far can it come down from present position? Daily chart starts to show a down swing pattern. What's your view?

thanks..

Leo,

Hopefully me prior post may have answered your question, if not: if we look solely at the historical data, which September is susceptical to, we will see a heavy down slide, but I don't believe that this month will follow the past trends. And here is why:

There are more eager buyers of shares then there ever was.

Oil has taken a slight tumble, although this has not been mentioned in the many News sites. I do believe it will rise again, but not by much in September as to dramatically adverse the market.

September is a laconic month; it sleeps when the world spins.

We have an up market. I expect it to rise but by very little.

And yes my neck is in a noose. I put it in there willingly. I stand by my convictions and rise or fall on my results. It is better to say what you believe then to quote what may never happen.

Yours

UK

 

[Ftsemad]

ukhero
I enjoy reading your positings and like yourself try to call the daily FTSE and use spreadbets. For today, my idea is that there will be a 10-15 pts rise followed by a fall to finish in negative territory.

regards
Ftsemad

 

[yourf16]

hi guys

what apparatus to use to see intraday ftse100 volumes, maybe like 10 minute bars. what software to use for ftse100 daytrading? one that can show realtime prices and volumes as well.

seems ftse is making a double top and aiming back to 5000