I don't believe the FTSE will fall any further and is now reliant on the movement of US markets.
If your feeling brave go long now.
If cautious wait until the US markets get into gear.
I said late last night that I wouldn't be betting today, I think I will now.
UK
If your feeling brave go long now.
If cautious wait until the US markets get into gear.
I said late last night that I wouldn't be betting today, I think I will now.
UK
The FTSE Wednesday, 13th September 2005
Tuesdays results:
Open: 5375
Close: 5338, down 37pts. This is down for the month of September.
Range: 5335 - 5377
On Monday I believe I said, something like: a small rise and a fall back. How wrong I was. I also stated that I wouldn't bet, so no loss! And here is why: I don't bet unless I've totally convinced that the odds [the result of charts and news etc] are totally stacked in one favourable direction as to be a fool not to. Monday was too close to a 50/50 bet.
And its interesting to note, if I had the opportunity to put pen to paper, fingers to the keyboard, first thing in the morning, I would have added the following: 'I've just spent 25mins waiting in a queue to obtain petrol!' Gut feeling: FTSE down 8 -14pts.
I would not have predicted a 37 point drop.
Further more, the main daily news item on all UK channels is about the mass panic in regards to buying petrol. The question to be asked is, will this adversely affect the major institutional buyers decision tomorrow? This is a 50/50 call. Some will look for bargains while others will wait until the market settles.
Another important detail: today's event puts the FTSE down for the month of September. Not good as it changes the month from rising to neutral.
Dow: 10597, Down 85pts. A few headaches today. Will it improve tomorrow?...
This Wednesday:
Weather: rain. Here's an interesting equation:
Rainy days add an element of uncertainty to buyers decisions + queuing up for fuel
____________________________________________________________ = Poor Volume.
Bargains to be made
News items of note:
'Gasoline futures rose Tuesday amid expectations that Wednesday's weekly snapshot of U.S. inventory data will show gasoline supplies at near critical levels, largely due to a shortage of production in the Gulf Coast caused by Hurricane Katrina.' -Reuters. This is a short lived shortage and a minor negative.
'Britain's inflation rate rose further above its 2% target in August to its highest rate in nearly nine years. The rise was put down to the surge in the cost of petrol. Consumer prices rose by 0.4% last month, taking the annual rate up a tenth of a point to 2.4%, as expected, the second month running it has exceeded the target.' - Sky news. This is a big and monthly negative. This will fuel, pardon the pun, discontent amoungst buyers. I see a change in my long term view of September, max 70 up or even 70 down.
'Hewlett-Packard is to cut almost 1,000 jobs in Britain, as part of a worldwide cost-cutting drive by the American computer manufacturer.' -Times Online. This is good. Here we have a company that recognises that it has to be positive in order to survive. Its stock price will reflect this. This will not affect the FTSE.
'Britain's inflation rate rose further above its 2% target in August to its highest rate in nearly nine years. -Sky news. Really bad news for the FTSE.
Oil: No major movement.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: A rise!!! Its taking the Michael!
Companies reporting: None to shake the market, but there are two that may prove a small negative.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: it doesn't look too healthy. Too many negatives.
Gut feeling: another fall, but not as much as today, perhaps 5-8pts.
Will I bet? I'm hesitant. My homework is done and it says a down for the day. However, a 37pt drop in one day is a bit heavy for September when prior to that it seemed to be dragging its heels. If my gut feeling is correct, there's not enough profit in relation to risk. No bet.
If your betting: Do watch the market open and do read present news for clues at to which direction the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Tuesdays results:
Open: 5375
Close: 5338, down 37pts. This is down for the month of September.
Range: 5335 - 5377
On Monday I believe I said, something like: a small rise and a fall back. How wrong I was. I also stated that I wouldn't bet, so no loss! And here is why: I don't bet unless I've totally convinced that the odds [the result of charts and news etc] are totally stacked in one favourable direction as to be a fool not to. Monday was too close to a 50/50 bet.
And its interesting to note, if I had the opportunity to put pen to paper, fingers to the keyboard, first thing in the morning, I would have added the following: 'I've just spent 25mins waiting in a queue to obtain petrol!' Gut feeling: FTSE down 8 -14pts.
I would not have predicted a 37 point drop.
Further more, the main daily news item on all UK channels is about the mass panic in regards to buying petrol. The question to be asked is, will this adversely affect the major institutional buyers decision tomorrow? This is a 50/50 call. Some will look for bargains while others will wait until the market settles.
Another important detail: today's event puts the FTSE down for the month of September. Not good as it changes the month from rising to neutral.
Dow: 10597, Down 85pts. A few headaches today. Will it improve tomorrow?...
This Wednesday:
Weather: rain. Here's an interesting equation:
Rainy days add an element of uncertainty to buyers decisions + queuing up for fuel
____________________________________________________________ = Poor Volume.
Bargains to be made
News items of note:
'Gasoline futures rose Tuesday amid expectations that Wednesday's weekly snapshot of U.S. inventory data will show gasoline supplies at near critical levels, largely due to a shortage of production in the Gulf Coast caused by Hurricane Katrina.' -Reuters. This is a short lived shortage and a minor negative.
'Britain's inflation rate rose further above its 2% target in August to its highest rate in nearly nine years. The rise was put down to the surge in the cost of petrol. Consumer prices rose by 0.4% last month, taking the annual rate up a tenth of a point to 2.4%, as expected, the second month running it has exceeded the target.' - Sky news. This is a big and monthly negative. This will fuel, pardon the pun, discontent amoungst buyers. I see a change in my long term view of September, max 70 up or even 70 down.
'Hewlett-Packard is to cut almost 1,000 jobs in Britain, as part of a worldwide cost-cutting drive by the American computer manufacturer.' -Times Online. This is good. Here we have a company that recognises that it has to be positive in order to survive. Its stock price will reflect this. This will not affect the FTSE.
'Britain's inflation rate rose further above its 2% target in August to its highest rate in nearly nine years. -Sky news. Really bad news for the FTSE.
Oil: No major movement.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: A rise!!! Its taking the Michael!
Companies reporting: None to shake the market, but there are two that may prove a small negative.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: it doesn't look too healthy. Too many negatives.
Gut feeling: another fall, but not as much as today, perhaps 5-8pts.
Will I bet? I'm hesitant. My homework is done and it says a down for the day. However, a 37pt drop in one day is a bit heavy for September when prior to that it seemed to be dragging its heels. If my gut feeling is correct, there's not enough profit in relation to risk. No bet.
If your betting: Do watch the market open and do read present news for clues at to which direction the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
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Hi leovirgo,
There is no easy Indice to predict. They all have the same probability, 50-50.
Here's a tip: I don't know what amount you bet, but if you bet, because the excitement moves you, bet low. Save the big stakes for days when an indice is more predictable and odds favourable.
I used to bet every day. I fell in debt and kept on falling. Its a hard lesson.
Yours
UK
There is no easy Indice to predict. They all have the same probability, 50-50.
Here's a tip: I don't know what amount you bet, but if you bet, because the excitement moves you, bet low. Save the big stakes for days when an indice is more predictable and odds favourable.
I used to bet every day. I fell in debt and kept on falling. Its a hard lesson.
Yours
UK
The FTSE Thursday, 15th September 2005
Wednesdays results:
Open: 5338
Close: 5347, up 9pts. This is down for the month of September.
Range: 5327 - 5349
On Tuesday I quoted a possible fall of 5-8pts; and its interesting to note, the market opened positive, fell, and then picked up late in the afternoon to end with a small gain. Although able to watch the FTSE and market news throughout the day I'm unable to pen additional reports, so watch the news for important news items such as the dismal attempts to disrupt oil supplies and therefore good news for the FTSE.
Dow: 10544, down 52pts.
This Thursday:
Weather: cloudy
News items of note:
'Equity markets largely stalled on Wednesday in the face of a sentiment-draining combination of mixed economic signals from the US and rising belief that the Federal Reserve will not pause this month from its path of raising interest rates.' -FT.com
'Market forces will trigger a drop in petrol pump prices next week to levels just before Hurricane Katrina struck in late August, the Petrol Retailers Association said on Wednesday.' -LONDON (Reuters)
Oil: its moving up, $64.15 a barrel.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: a debatable medium drop
Companies reporting: None to shake the market. I had 'Next' diaried for Thursday but I believe its results came out today, strange!
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: I can still see a down. Oil is up and I believe it will climb higher. The DJ is down yet again.
Gut feeling: a fall of 15-25pts. Too bold me thinks! Perhaps I need to get my guts checked out!
Will I bet? I'm more confident for tomorrow. I'll be watching the morning news with deliberation over tea and toast before leaping into my trusty chariot to see if there's any petrol queues.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read present news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Wednesdays results:
Open: 5338
Close: 5347, up 9pts. This is down for the month of September.
Range: 5327 - 5349
On Tuesday I quoted a possible fall of 5-8pts; and its interesting to note, the market opened positive, fell, and then picked up late in the afternoon to end with a small gain. Although able to watch the FTSE and market news throughout the day I'm unable to pen additional reports, so watch the news for important news items such as the dismal attempts to disrupt oil supplies and therefore good news for the FTSE.
Dow: 10544, down 52pts.
This Thursday:
Weather: cloudy
News items of note:
'Equity markets largely stalled on Wednesday in the face of a sentiment-draining combination of mixed economic signals from the US and rising belief that the Federal Reserve will not pause this month from its path of raising interest rates.' -FT.com
'Market forces will trigger a drop in petrol pump prices next week to levels just before Hurricane Katrina struck in late August, the Petrol Retailers Association said on Wednesday.' -LONDON (Reuters)
Oil: its moving up, $64.15 a barrel.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: a debatable medium drop
Companies reporting: None to shake the market. I had 'Next' diaried for Thursday but I believe its results came out today, strange!
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: I can still see a down. Oil is up and I believe it will climb higher. The DJ is down yet again.
Gut feeling: a fall of 15-25pts. Too bold me thinks! Perhaps I need to get my guts checked out!
Will I bet? I'm more confident for tomorrow. I'll be watching the morning news with deliberation over tea and toast before leaping into my trusty chariot to see if there's any petrol queues.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read present news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Ftsemad said:
Thats the way to go Ftsemad,
If your not too sure wait. I agree with you, mid morning is usually the key to where the FTSE is going most days.
Sorry, but its difficult for me to come into the forum during the day and answer any questions or mix with a writers thoughts. Work an all. If I can I will.
Yours
UK
The FTSE Friday, 16th September 2005
Thursdays results:
Open: 5347
Close: 5383, up 36pts. This move means its up on the month but I still define the market as neutral considering its the 10th trading day.
Range: 5342 - 5387. Highest point of the year: 5386.
On Wednesday I stated a gut feeling of a medium drop but to watch the markets closely when they open. I watched them, there was no queues at the Petrol Stations and therefore felt confident that a rise was in the air. Did I bet? Yup.
Dow: 10558, a rise of 13pts.
This Thursday:
Weather: mixed; rain and cloud.
News items of note:
NEW YORK (AP) - 'Crude-oil prices slipped below $65 US a barrel on Thursday as traders took profits amid signs that petroleum supplies were recovering and the recent surge in prices had caused demand to deflate.' This was one of the key factors for the FTSE surge today and will add to a possible rise tomorrow.
LONDON (Reuters) - 'Fashion chain Next has suffered its worst like-for-like sales in a decade, it said on Thursday, as flat retail figures dashed hopes of a sector upturn.' Many retailers are suffering at the moment and the disclosure of a bad retail sales report [which I anticipated] was one one of my key reasons in believing the market would drop.
Two conflicting reports here both by 'The Australian:'
Oil prices rising By Perrine Faye, London, September 16, 2005 - 'WORLD oil prices extended gains overnight following a report on US petroleum stocks that confirmed severe disruption to energy production and supplies owing to Hurricane Katrina.Prices rose also pending a meeting by the International Energy Agency over its plan to release emergency oil reserves after last month's hurricane battered oil facilities in the southern United States.'
Oil slips below $US65 per barrel By Janet Mcbride, London, September 16, 2005 - 'Oil retreated below $US65 overnight as dealers took stock of mounting evidence of eroding fuel demand and amply supplied crude markets.Oil cartel OPEC forecast that rising pump prices would finally start to crimp world oil demand growth that has been powered by the world's biggest consumer the United States and the rapidly expanding economies of China and India.
Oil: its moving, but which way!!!
Charts, and nothing but the charts: No clear clues.
Companies reporting: None to shake the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: Its a Friday; we've had a medium up; September is playing its hand as it normally does with small ups and downs followed by a medium move and reports on Oil are conflicting but I favour a fall.
Gut feeling: a fall/rise between 5-12pts and I favour the rise.
Will I bet? No. I've arrived home late, its late, I've not had time to study as long as I would have wished so I'll bank my profits and watch the FTSE from afar.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read present news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
Thursdays results:
Open: 5347
Close: 5383, up 36pts. This move means its up on the month but I still define the market as neutral considering its the 10th trading day.
Range: 5342 - 5387. Highest point of the year: 5386.
On Wednesday I stated a gut feeling of a medium drop but to watch the markets closely when they open. I watched them, there was no queues at the Petrol Stations and therefore felt confident that a rise was in the air. Did I bet? Yup.
Dow: 10558, a rise of 13pts.
This Thursday:
Weather: mixed; rain and cloud.
News items of note:
NEW YORK (AP) - 'Crude-oil prices slipped below $65 US a barrel on Thursday as traders took profits amid signs that petroleum supplies were recovering and the recent surge in prices had caused demand to deflate.' This was one of the key factors for the FTSE surge today and will add to a possible rise tomorrow.
LONDON (Reuters) - 'Fashion chain Next has suffered its worst like-for-like sales in a decade, it said on Thursday, as flat retail figures dashed hopes of a sector upturn.' Many retailers are suffering at the moment and the disclosure of a bad retail sales report [which I anticipated] was one one of my key reasons in believing the market would drop.
Two conflicting reports here both by 'The Australian:'
Oil prices rising By Perrine Faye, London, September 16, 2005 - 'WORLD oil prices extended gains overnight following a report on US petroleum stocks that confirmed severe disruption to energy production and supplies owing to Hurricane Katrina.Prices rose also pending a meeting by the International Energy Agency over its plan to release emergency oil reserves after last month's hurricane battered oil facilities in the southern United States.'
Oil slips below $US65 per barrel By Janet Mcbride, London, September 16, 2005 - 'Oil retreated below $US65 overnight as dealers took stock of mounting evidence of eroding fuel demand and amply supplied crude markets.Oil cartel OPEC forecast that rising pump prices would finally start to crimp world oil demand growth that has been powered by the world's biggest consumer the United States and the rapidly expanding economies of China and India.
Oil: its moving, but which way!!!
Charts, and nothing but the charts: No clear clues.
Companies reporting: None to shake the market.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: Its a Friday; we've had a medium up; September is playing its hand as it normally does with small ups and downs followed by a medium move and reports on Oil are conflicting but I favour a fall.
Gut feeling: a fall/rise between 5-12pts and I favour the rise.
Will I bet? No. I've arrived home late, its late, I've not had time to study as long as I would have wished so I'll bank my profits and watch the FTSE from afar.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read present news for clues at to which way the FTSE may go.
yours
UK
FTSEmad,
You indicated at 11.00am on Friday, a FTSE rise to fall between 15 - 30pts. You were bang on the mark, well done. Hope you had a few shekels on that prediction.
Most days, between 11 and 1pm, the FTSE puts on her frock, dons her feather hat and walks down the street towards the local market; she is only distracted by local news and gossip. You were very astute in your timing.
Yours
UK.
You indicated at 11.00am on Friday, a FTSE rise to fall between 15 - 30pts. You were bang on the mark, well done. Hope you had a few shekels on that prediction.
Most days, between 11 and 1pm, the FTSE puts on her frock, dons her feather hat and walks down the street towards the local market; she is only distracted by local news and gossip. You were very astute in your timing.
Yours
UK.
