wasp
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linesniffer said:
Good morning to you too,
I know you weren't and no problems. Its an important point to bring up. A clear definition would be a good thing.
so for true darksiding we are talking about going back to akin 'wall street' with bud fox watching numbers on the screen and streaming across the wall, nothing more... (and/or Nick Leeson watching the market crash in big foot high figures for those not seen wall street)!
wasp
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............... additionally, although this is technically TA at the moment, I'd like to think/hope we are taking it further, or will be, so we're not looking for just the text book set ups/rhyme/reason but trying to really comprehend what is going behind the scenes and understand why so, the charts can be reduced and even removed one day as the players/market is better understood.
rols
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wasp said:
TA in hindsight is a truly wonderful thing but unfortunately can cloud our judgement in live trading.
How many times? - and let's be honest - have we been watching a chart and have seen a particular pattern emerging, whether it be a cup and handle, morning star etc. We then look back over the last few days to check if this pattern has occured before - and hey presto there it was three days ago and that time we missed it. Quick, get in before it's too late, don't wanna miss the boat again!
Then what happens next. Oops, got it wrong again.
I will keep banging this drum because I believe it will make a difference. Sort out our own perceptions first, or perhaps misperceptions, then draw the maps.
rols
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mr.marcus said:
That's a beautiful chart. I especially love the snowy topped houses underneath.
Mark. You have already demonstrated that you are a master at TA and you would be the first to admit that your winning perceptions have been forged and earned through much sacrifice and 1000's of hours of trial and error.
I am only suggesting to those less advanced/successful than yourself to try shifting perceptions.
Firstly would you not agree one has to understand the nature of a thing - in this case the concept of perception - before it can be altered?
I would like to think that we can all throw different things into the pot for the collective good. If you think my contributions are not of any relevance then I will return to the sidelines.
rols
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mr.marcus said:
Mark. No offense taken and I know none intended.
I was merely reinforcing my proposition about how we view things.
Forgive me for using your previous reply and my response to it as a perfect illustration of misperception.
How many times have we convinced ourselves that the market is going one way only to do the opposite. Then, even perceived the market move was solely and deliberately directed at us!
Sounds ridiculous, doesn't it?
rols
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More perceptions
Just to spice the pot a little further i was sent this email recently by a fellow trader. The reason i contacted him was because I had developed an interest in Kepler (trading and non trading related interest) and was keen to hear his thoughts. Kepler BTW (for those who don't know) was a 17th century astronomer who wrote laws of planetary motion and aided Newton in forming his laws of gravity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johannes_Kepler
With his permission there are some excellent perceptions. Worth a look.
Hi rols
Firstly if you still frequent any trading forums you may like to post this up in a newbie section as 'a letter/email from another trader' and see what sort of response it draws.
"Some astrological forecasts will turn out to be true, but most of it, time and experience will expose as empty and worthless. The latter part will be forgotten while the former will be carefully entered in people's memories, as is usual with the crowd." - De fundamentis astrologiae certioribus.
As true now as when Kepler wrote it in 1602.
The thing is, after having gone down that route I discovered that you really don't need to know 'if' or 'how' anyway - it's already discounted in the price action. Support & Resistance, Fibs, channels, breakouts, traditional chart patterns, etc. They are all caused by cycles within cycles which are all clearly (to one degree or another) defined within the market action and within the characteristic natures' of the individual instruments themselves. The reason these cycles are not so clear as to be self evident to the casual observer is that there are a number of cycles all operating at the same time, 'producing' a resultant wave which looks 'a bit random' - unless you squint. Each cycle modifying lower level cycles and in turn being modified by those of a higher order. Additionally these cycles invert and pause at indeterminate (as far as I can tell) events and for indeterminate periods of time. You have to pick them up again once they manifest themselves through their operation on lower and higher cycles. Much like Kepler and others did in determination of the existence of other heavenly bodies by the perturbations they witnessed in the observable motion of those objects already known and clearly identified. For instance the actual event of 9/11 would be seen by many to have caused the markets to react the way they did. However, the markets were absolutely going to do what they did 9/11 or not. I wouldn't go so far as does George Soros to state "Markets influence the events they anticipate", as I suspect exogenous events have little to do with market action, but will always be ascribed as the source, or the result, or both - rather than just being accepted independently, in and of themselves.
I've also done a lot of digging around, as you have, into the construction and 'meaning' of indicators. Indicators are an attempt to codify the cyclic nature which we inherently sense exists within the markets. And on this basis you can see why the inventors who initially constructed them did so the way they did. And they do have merit. But not in the hands of the lazy or the stupid. Indicators are used with virtually the same default settings, on all instruments, in all markets and in all market phase-times (bull, bear, flat) and apart from the general dictum of "oscillators for flats, MAs for trending", you'll find little deviation among the mass of uninformed traders into their application and interpretation. Which is foolish. Take Elliott waves, which have a sound basis within Dow theory and which Elliott developed to augment interpretation of phase-space (time-space having less authority or determinability within Elliott's universe) for stock index averages. I stress: Stock index averages. But how many people do you know who feel quite unconcerned and correct in pressing Elliott waves into service for common stocks and even for FX for heaven's sake! Arrogance. And ignorance. Tools for fools. Fools with tools. It's much harder work to have to gauge where your market currently is in it's phase-space and time-space, and to determine which set of indicators (if any) to use and then to determine for this precise moment in time, which are the best settings and parameters to use for the view or perspective you want of the vehicle in question. I know very few who go that far rols, very few.
The other thing is, it's all out there. All the information you, or I, or anyone else needs to make an informed decision about any instrument in any timeframe is there for the taking. All the BS about proper trader psychology and suchlike... Sure money management and risk management and no emotional attachment to the outcome after all the analysis and checks and balances and stops and criteria - all good and true. But the psychology is oft quoted as being 80% of the battle. Not so! If your mechanics, methods and information are sound then the psychology of the process is a very distant non-issue. I didn't always think this way. But then, I haven't always operated this way. But I suspect the psychological aspect gets far more exposure precisely because it is easier to waffle on about the abstract and much harder to pin someone down to being precise about what they mean than it is to be very clearly specific and simple about what you really need to be concentrating your focus upon.
Good trading
JJ
Just to spice the pot a little further i was sent this email recently by a fellow trader. The reason i contacted him was because I had developed an interest in Kepler (trading and non trading related interest) and was keen to hear his thoughts. Kepler BTW (for those who don't know) was a 17th century astronomer who wrote laws of planetary motion and aided Newton in forming his laws of gravity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johannes_Kepler
With his permission there are some excellent perceptions. Worth a look.
Hi rols
Firstly if you still frequent any trading forums you may like to post this up in a newbie section as 'a letter/email from another trader' and see what sort of response it draws.
"Some astrological forecasts will turn out to be true, but most of it, time and experience will expose as empty and worthless. The latter part will be forgotten while the former will be carefully entered in people's memories, as is usual with the crowd." - De fundamentis astrologiae certioribus.
As true now as when Kepler wrote it in 1602.
The thing is, after having gone down that route I discovered that you really don't need to know 'if' or 'how' anyway - it's already discounted in the price action. Support & Resistance, Fibs, channels, breakouts, traditional chart patterns, etc. They are all caused by cycles within cycles which are all clearly (to one degree or another) defined within the market action and within the characteristic natures' of the individual instruments themselves. The reason these cycles are not so clear as to be self evident to the casual observer is that there are a number of cycles all operating at the same time, 'producing' a resultant wave which looks 'a bit random' - unless you squint. Each cycle modifying lower level cycles and in turn being modified by those of a higher order. Additionally these cycles invert and pause at indeterminate (as far as I can tell) events and for indeterminate periods of time. You have to pick them up again once they manifest themselves through their operation on lower and higher cycles. Much like Kepler and others did in determination of the existence of other heavenly bodies by the perturbations they witnessed in the observable motion of those objects already known and clearly identified. For instance the actual event of 9/11 would be seen by many to have caused the markets to react the way they did. However, the markets were absolutely going to do what they did 9/11 or not. I wouldn't go so far as does George Soros to state "Markets influence the events they anticipate", as I suspect exogenous events have little to do with market action, but will always be ascribed as the source, or the result, or both - rather than just being accepted independently, in and of themselves.
I've also done a lot of digging around, as you have, into the construction and 'meaning' of indicators. Indicators are an attempt to codify the cyclic nature which we inherently sense exists within the markets. And on this basis you can see why the inventors who initially constructed them did so the way they did. And they do have merit. But not in the hands of the lazy or the stupid. Indicators are used with virtually the same default settings, on all instruments, in all markets and in all market phase-times (bull, bear, flat) and apart from the general dictum of "oscillators for flats, MAs for trending", you'll find little deviation among the mass of uninformed traders into their application and interpretation. Which is foolish. Take Elliott waves, which have a sound basis within Dow theory and which Elliott developed to augment interpretation of phase-space (time-space having less authority or determinability within Elliott's universe) for stock index averages. I stress: Stock index averages. But how many people do you know who feel quite unconcerned and correct in pressing Elliott waves into service for common stocks and even for FX for heaven's sake! Arrogance. And ignorance. Tools for fools. Fools with tools. It's much harder work to have to gauge where your market currently is in it's phase-space and time-space, and to determine which set of indicators (if any) to use and then to determine for this precise moment in time, which are the best settings and parameters to use for the view or perspective you want of the vehicle in question. I know very few who go that far rols, very few.
The other thing is, it's all out there. All the information you, or I, or anyone else needs to make an informed decision about any instrument in any timeframe is there for the taking. All the BS about proper trader psychology and suchlike... Sure money management and risk management and no emotional attachment to the outcome after all the analysis and checks and balances and stops and criteria - all good and true. But the psychology is oft quoted as being 80% of the battle. Not so! If your mechanics, methods and information are sound then the psychology of the process is a very distant non-issue. I didn't always think this way. But then, I haven't always operated this way. But I suspect the psychological aspect gets far more exposure precisely because it is easier to waffle on about the abstract and much harder to pin someone down to being precise about what they mean than it is to be very clearly specific and simple about what you really need to be concentrating your focus upon.
Good trading
JJ
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mr.marcus said:
Now on the colours being right, if a person knows or is aware of typical inbred humans responding to some colours on instinct ie red, danger, stop, etc...... if you have awareness of that, then why should it matter what colour the bars are?
Men are typically creatures who "Hunt on sight" drawn to respond, and that aint no bad thing providing you see the draw for what it is, which might be bull bait, or bear bait or not.
So if we know colours can have an effect, why not just ignore the colours or not even that, why not say thats a bar, its red, but whats happening? would it matter then ?
Same at traffic lights. Green means go, or does it ? it means go if its safe to do so, how many pile ups happen because people respond to colours and have shut off to dangers, green light plant the foot, and maybe its safe maybe it aint, ohh **** that truck side rammed me...
Reds danger, ? lower prices or is it?
blue and green is safe and soothing,going higher or are they ?
interesting though the colours and human auto respond, but if we can focus and know all is not as it seems maybe, then why worry what colour. Would it not be better to have the blood red, and cash green colours even flashing lights, and then see through all that to see whats really going on?
I can see a possible benefit to it, anyone else ?
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linesniffer said:
Yeah, train with the absolute worst colours, to condition yourself to ignore colour, and focus on the intent. Then it may make sense(after) to display a palette which is easy on the colour seeing eye, but youve conditioned the inner eye to be aware to the intent regardless of colours.
Thus price & intent are fluid, our colours can be fixed however because of the conditioning to essentially ignore them,because we are not mentally fixed anymore to respond to fixed colours.
rols
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Crap Buddist said:
Er, either I was not clear or you have misinterpreted my post.
Do you really believe that when there's a few hundred/thousand smakers on the line and you're LONG and a giant red candlesticks splats onto your screen, your heart starts pumping, your hands start sweating, you are going to say to yourself. Oh, it means nothing that red candlestick because I know.
The chances of being struck by lightening are seven million to one. Now I know that but I'm not going walk into the middle of a field next time there's a thunderstorm.
The chances of winning the Euro lottery are 77million to one, yet millions of people reckon they have a good chance of striking it rich every week. I know that and for that reason don't ever play the lottery.
What's the difference?
Crap Buddist
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Now if we can just roll that out to cover our approach to being fixed on colours of humans, religion beliefs of humans, wad status of humans, sex status of humans, we or humans might actually see the and their own true colours in selfs and others, which is wonderfuls. 
Well it is sunday.
Well it is sunday.
Crap Buddist
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rols said:
Well i'd say assuming ive a red candle for lower prices, the price is being marked lower, whats the intent status, still long? Is it about to change from being long to now intent short? ignore the colour and focus on the fluids of price & fluid intent, colour red, blue, or tootie fruity why should that control/influence our decision.
Because it has done for thousands of years?, that was then this is now and whats possible now ? can we not see what things are better, by not focusing on what the external label is ? conscious over ride of emotional brain, that part of our brain is evolving, that part of the human, today, from here on maybe..
It further reinforces my point that if your heart starts thumping to a red candle, then the conditioning to ignore colours may help a trader make better decisions because he or she is free from fixed (emotional,fight or flight ) response reaction to colours.
counter_violent
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rols said:
This is great
Who is JJ ?
rols
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Crap Buddist said:
Yes I see where you're coming from but my intention was to illustrate the millions of perceptions of reality that occur every second in our brain of which a red candle is a simple example.
What about all the other millions you don't know about?
counter_violent
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Crap Buddist
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Financial Markets ~ The exploitation of the human condition.
"The other thing is, it's all out there. All the information you, or I, or anyone else needs to make an informed decision about any instrument in any timeframe is there for the taking. All the BS about proper trader psychology and suchlike... Sure money management and risk management and no emotional attachment to the outcome after all the analysis and checks and balances and stops and criteria - all good and true. But the psychology is oft quoted as being 80% of the battle. Not so! If your mechanics, methods and information are sound then the psychology of the process is a very distant non-issue. I didn't always think this way. But then, I haven't always operated this way. But I suspect the psychological aspect gets far more exposure precisely because it is easier to waffle on about the abstract and much harder to pin someone down to being precise about what they mean than it is to be very clearly specific and simple about what you really need to be concentrating your focus upon.
Good trading
JJ"
Psychology of the emotion typical human and its typical reflex reaction to price, based on these emotions,and how colours can help to bring about/reinforce that conditioned response ?
That gets hardly any exposure, is it worth talking about? or mouths wide shut?
First chapter anyone?
List of contents then ,what would be in it?
"The other thing is, it's all out there. All the information you, or I, or anyone else needs to make an informed decision about any instrument in any timeframe is there for the taking. All the BS about proper trader psychology and suchlike... Sure money management and risk management and no emotional attachment to the outcome after all the analysis and checks and balances and stops and criteria - all good and true. But the psychology is oft quoted as being 80% of the battle. Not so! If your mechanics, methods and information are sound then the psychology of the process is a very distant non-issue. I didn't always think this way. But then, I haven't always operated this way. But I suspect the psychological aspect gets far more exposure precisely because it is easier to waffle on about the abstract and much harder to pin someone down to being precise about what they mean than it is to be very clearly specific and simple about what you really need to be concentrating your focus upon.
Good trading
JJ"
Psychology of the emotion typical human and its typical reflex reaction to price, based on these emotions,and how colours can help to bring about/reinforce that conditioned response ?
That gets hardly any exposure, is it worth talking about? or mouths wide shut?
First chapter anyone?
List of contents then ,what would be in it?
Crap Buddist
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The answers to the wonderfuls always beings from the questions....
Henks now applying the powerfuls & wonderfuls of the dutch mind controls to the wonderfuls & powerfuls questions beings
to seek enlightenment
thus the aswers beings within that which is always it itselfs is thus.
from lose ignorance.
wow, thanks much Henks.
rols said:Yes I see where you're coming from but my intention was to illustrate the millions of perceptions of reality that occur every second in our brain of which a red candle is a simple example.
What about all the other millions you don't know about?
Henks now applying the powerfuls & wonderfuls of the dutch mind controls to the wonderfuls & powerfuls questions beings
to seek enlightenment
thus the aswers beings within that which is always it itselfs is thus.
from lose ignorance.
wow, thanks much Henks.
