The Darksiding of Forex

[wasp]

Chaps,

I have been offered an opportunity for a few weeks down South with a few locals for a few shenanigans and after a good months trading, how can I refuse!

I'm leaving this thread with you Jacinto and mr.marcus.... Do me proud! :cheesy:

Seriously though, this thread has such potential, I hope it grows and I'll be back in April...!

 

[jacinto]

Chaps,

I have been offered an opportunity for a few months down South with a few locals for a few shenanigans and after a good months trading, how can I refuse!

I'm leaving this thread with you Jacinto and mr.marcus.... Do me proud! :cheesy:

Seriously though, this thread has such potential, I hope it grows and I'll be back in April...!

APRIL

Wasp thinking:

right, got a mexican to run my thread, better have fun:

Jacinto thinking:
OK guys, seems like Luther will run the Catholic Church from now on :cheesy:

j

 

[wasp]

APRIL

Wasp thinking:

right, got a mexican to run my thread, better have fun:

Jacinto thinking:
OK guys, seems like Luther will run the Catholic Church from now on :cheesy:

j

You really need to sleep more often!

 

[jacinto]

You really need to sleep more often!

speaking of which, i just missed a nice scalp for it.

have fun, enjoy. you never know, I may even have the place full of indicators all over the place. :cheesy:

j

 

[wasp]

The rich tea biscuit is the only thing allowed even closely related to an indicator! (run a search!)

Good trading all and I expect nothing but tape reading experts on my return, the charts dumped with all the indicators too!

Till April! woohoo!

 

[dazshaw]

deleted

 

[jacinto]

Well, I guess I better do go to sleep. problem is that yesterday I missed all moves thanks to sleeping. lol.

good evening.

 

[jacinto]

dazshaw,

got to go to sleep, will get back to you. tomorrow.

j

 

[dazshaw]

dazshaw,

got to go to sleep, will get back to you. tomorrow.

j

Good night to you sir

DS

 

[rainman2]

Hi all, I will post my more detailed effort when my boss isnt around!

But for now would like to post my observations (chart below) regarding where the selling intent was comfirmed within 3 telling candles. Once again maybe miles of base, but this thread is all about taking part, so I wont be too embarrased if I am way wrong.

I find this area very interesting indeed, looking at the various candles triyng to see in them rather than at them. Ok, im thinking that the intent will not have been shown in the obvious candles ie text book reversals with long tails etc. Im trying to see at the turning points what didnt happen as much as what did happen. Which brings me to point one. As we can see the price has made its way through support, quickly bounces and rolls over to about 1.9535 at about 7.20 am. It then form what looks like a little base over the next hour. As the price moves up it gathers momentum then pulls back for 2 bars. Then moves back up to try to take out the last high, which it just manages to do. It then falls back as we can see in the 1st red bar. Its actually the follwing bar which is my first warning, as the price should be bought up rather quickly from this pullback. As we can see this didnt happen, we then proceeded to roll over to about 1.9525 @9.05 am.

As the price s moves up again there seems to be a bit of selling wittin the candles before we reach point two. Here we gap up more than 5 pips above the previous close and move up even further before heavy selling comes in (maybe protecting positions), another warning.

Point three we move lower into what appers to be some buying, plus scalpers profit taking,and if you read all the books on candlesticks many will believe that this looks like a bullish opportunity, but many will forget that the location is of paramount importance when taking these kind of signals. This is not one of those times. Indeed the price cant break above this little 4 bar range, so I see that as another sign that there is no demand or desire to take it any higher for now. Infact as we can see the price pretty much turns over and rolls down stream (time to send out the life boats )

Hope this is of some interest, and that others will point out their conclusions regarding the candles. Lets also hope that we can keep this on track, because i believe this will get very interesting indeed.

Thanks again to all taking part!

D S

ps. sorry about the chart can only seem to save it in bitmap which wont let me attatch the file. so have to zip for now!

Great stuff D S, enjoying your posts.

0-1 on yesterdays prediction but tomorrows another day to learn...

 

[trendie]

.....
ps....those who i have arranged skype sessions with i will send out my private mail as i will be closing down my mail box today ...cheers.

NNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

I was starting to understand linesniffers comments about order book, (if its the same as order flow), and starting to see how the imbalance of order flow created price moves.

And now mr.marcus goes away!

below is cbot webinar where Mr Janovsky uses only Volume and Open Interest (no other indicators) to distinguish strong-hands from weak-hands, and how their behaviour creates price moves.

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,1058+43392,00.html

I thought I was getting to grips with trading market behaviour rather than trading indicators, but now I may never know.

 

[jacinto]

good luck to everyone on this thread.i am setting up my own private board now and will no longer have time to participate.

.

Mark,

I must say that this is a very sad thing to read. Your leaving is a massive loss to this website. Simply cant quantify it.

All the best in the future. Thank you for the lessons and knowledge transmited.

Regards,
Jacinto

 

[Fish]

Indecision, as wrong a term as it is, ironically, happens at decision levels, where both sides (buyers and sellers) have no clue what is going to happen. REading indecision is probably the most difficult part to read about price action.
regards,

jacinto

hi jacinto,

just a thought. How about "balance" rather than indecision? The doji represents balance between buyers and sellers. As traders, we look for imbalance, that is to say, price movement, or there is no profit potential. I am reading this and thinking, your expression could be telling me more about "your" frame of mind, your perception of the market, than it is about the attitude of the participants . As to whether they are weak hands or strong hands, I don't know..... Wish I did... What is interesting about this discussion is that everyone frames their "language" of the markets in a different way - depending on how they view the interplay they see.

 

[Quercus]

Very interesting Fish, as I was thinking exactly the same thing - mainly because as jacinto later pointed out it WAS his own perception that he was communicating. Also I could really see some of my own problems coming out in the language, just as my own analysis shows. What I might "feel" about what is happening ( such as indecision ) is more likely to influence my decision making, rather than help me see what might be evident in the simple action of price!

Sad to see you leaving MM, as indeed I'm sure many others are, but best of luck in all your endeavours - As Richard Quest coined, "whatever you're doing I hope it is profitable"!
Cheers
Q

 

[jacinto]

hi jacinto,

just a thought. How about "balance" rather than indecision? The doji represents balance between buyers and sellers. As traders, we look for imbalance, that is to say, price movement, or there is no profit potential. I am reading this and thinking, your expression could be telling me more about "your" frame of mind, your perception of the market, than it is about the attitude of the participants . As to whether they are weak hands or strong hands, I don't know..... Wish I did... What is interesting about this discussion is that everyone frames their "language" of the markets in a different way - depending on how they view the interplay they see.

hi fish,

I would say that is one possible interpretation. balance. but, not wanting to be the wise one here, I would say "balance of what, balance between who, etc.etc.?

I guess the point i am trying to make, is that the only right answer to your question is that there is no right answer.

IT is relative to the context. A doji on its own, means nothing. A doji at the apparent top of a move, and at known resistance, may mean something else, and a doji int the middle of a range will mean something completely different. What time frame, etc. So, a doji on its own, can mean many things.

not beeing cheeky, actually being serious.

in a way, you have answered what i am saying at the bottom of your comment.

As a sideline comment, and making this a topic of its own, I agree 100% with the language part. That is a problem that happens in every discipline. Forget about perception for a moment. It gets down to what is the real meaning of a word. Anyway, dont want to mislead this discussion with the language part.

j

What is interesting about this discussion is that everyone frames their "language" of the markets in a different way - depending on how they view the interplay they see.

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

hi jacinto,

just a thought. How about "balance" rather than indecision? The doji represents balance between buyers and sellers. As traders, we look for imbalance, that is to say, price movement, or there is no profit potential. I am reading this and thinking, your expression could be telling me more about "your" frame of mind, your perception of the market, than it is about the attitude of the participants . As to whether they are weak hands or strong hands, I don't know..... Wish I did... What is interesting about this discussion is that everyone frames their "language" of the markets in a different way - depending on how they view the interplay they see.

Semantics of language are interesting. As you observe Fish, the literal translation of Doji is 'simultaneously', ie far closer to the concept of balance, but Nison the candlestick guru defines it as representing 'indecision' - quite a difference in meaning - personally I think the literal translation sets out the situation better.

 

[jacinto]

Semantics of language are interesting. As you observe Fish, the literal translation of Doji is 'simultaneously', ie far closer to the concept of balance, but Nison the candlestick guru defines it as representing 'indecision' - quite a difference in meaning - personally I think the literal translation sets out the situation better.

this is a good post. makes the point about language, and makes the point of perception, even of interpretation.

How about we try to explore the indecision-balance topic during the following days. I am sure we can get somewhere and probably even know how to identify the difference between them (if there is any).

just a thought.
j

 

[dazshaw]

Mark,

I must say that this is a very sad thing to read. Your leaving is a massive loss to this website. Simply cant quantify it.

All the best in the future. Thank you for the lessons and knowledge transmited.

Regards,
Jacinto

Seconded, big loss here, thanks for the time and effort, your a legend... Gratitude as always

DS

 

[jacinto]

this is a good post. makes the point about language, and makes the point of perception, even of interpretation.

How about we try to explore the indecision-balance topic during the following days. I am sure we can get somewhere and probably even know how to identify the difference between them (if there is any).

just a thought.
j

something to kick the discussion

Daily chart of GBPUSD with 2 dojis on the monthly bars.

j

 

[rainman2]

....yes lots of thoughts.....as everything i do is based on the psychology behind the price...and thru studying 1000s of individual weak hand traders.........i know how,why and where they make the decisions they do...

one of my approaches to learning trading was to spend 100s hours in chartrooms observing people of course just by text....and to call where each trader would enter and exit there positions.of course i kept this to myself.

as far as speculation .....well thats what this profession is all about....and if i achieve consistently 49 out of 50 winners i am happy in the fact that my speculation isn't that bad..i make no apologies for this...if you believe i am wrong,please correct my analysis, please feel free to explain the whys,who's and hows behind the price.unless people know this they are being lead by the nose.i have taught very large ex DOM traders who are now able to see where they should have been "playing the games"...by understanding what the charts on multi levels can tell them.

to add.....actually you are looking beyond the order book....i have done my time with the order book....i am aware ...where the use of limit and market take place and by whom...and in what manner and for what reason.when you know this and the typical volume/trading activity at these points in the market......you no longer need to be subjected to either.....DOM or volume.

if the price is going down ...selling still strong?....what about pure fake outs and quick stop hunts because the psychology of the traders allow this and the liquidity of the market accommodation it also within the realms of value for the professional.the intent has already changed.so direction in itself does not equal strength or weakness.


"The candles(price) are an exhaust of the pressure. That's all."...this is quite an interesting statement to me also.....its like candles just fall from the sky ,like there is no decision making goin on,no emtional patterns to crowd behaviour,no emotive reactions to price levels,velocity,s+r etc....price just is is whats the point in understanding it attitude.bodybuilders arnt just born ,they are created ,correct exercise,nutirition,rest,etc....price isnt just born...it to is created...knowing the essence behind the creation allows you to be apart from the weak hands...apart from the crowd.

good luck to everyone on this thread.i am setting up my own private board now and will no longer have time to participate.

ps....those who i have arranged skype sessions with i will send out my private mail as i will be closing down my mail box today ...cheers.

thanks mr marcus, truly enlightening, all of it.