Spreadbetting FX using TA

GBP showing a bit more strength than I anticipated at the moment - I may regret this but I've pulled the GBP/JPY order for now and set stop to break-even on GBP/USD.
 
I'm all over the place today :eek:

I'm keeping the GBP/USD stop at break-even but I've re-instated the GBP/JPY sell order as there was no solid reason to delete it without a break of the 135.41 high.

I've changed the order a touch though - it's now sell at 134.20, stop 135.55, limit 131.70.
 
And that's enough of these screens for a while - off for a bike ride in the sunshine (y)
 
Back just in time so set stop to break-even on GBP/USD. GBP/JPY order filled.

By splitting my bearish GBP view over two markets where there happened to be a setup, I'm now in the happy position of having my normal potential maximum upside - haven't worked it out but probably over 9% - but thanks to the GBP/USD trade progressing nicely, my maximum downside is now limited to just 2.5%.
 
I like your style SH. Price action with indicators for confluence. I am a bit confused over divergence and hidden divergence though. On the GBP/USD 4hr Price is sloping down and MACD up. Is this not hidden Bullish divergence ? thanks
 
Hi advfntrader -

Divergence is tricky at first but once you get used to the definitions it does get easier! :)

Price making lower highs while indicator makes higher highs = bearish hidden divergence
Price making higher lows while indicator makes lower lows = bearish hidden divergence

Price making lower lows while indicator makes higher lows = bullish regular divergence
Price making higher highs while indicator makes lower highs = bearish regular divergence
 
Well - unfortunately stopped out of GBP/JPY for a loss of 2.5% and a break-even trade on GBP/USD.

Wish I'd paid closer attention to the latter as it came within 4 pips of my target and I may have got out a little early based on the intraday tech setup at the time - but I can't say for sure so never mind! I'll take what the market wants to give me :)

I'd just like to talk about the chart below. I hope no-one construes it as bragging because it's certainly not (hard to brag when trading performance is as unspectacular as it's been since I started this journal, and especially when I've just lost a trade!)

However, the main reason I started this journal was to prove that technical analysis can be used to good effect, and that it's not "complete bullsh*t" (or worse) as I've seen it described on these forums.

It's a blank 1h chart of GBP/USD, annotated with extracts from this journal. It shows that, using technical analysis alone, I was able to pretty accurately forecast, in advance, the price movement over the course of approximately 3 trading days.

If I'm able to do that, then there must be something to TA, right? :)
 

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SH-101 said:
Well - unfortunately stopped out of GBP/JPY for a loss of 2.5% and a break-even trade on GBP/USD.

Wish I'd paid closer attention to the latter as it came within 4 pips of my target and I may have got out a little early based on the intraday tech setup at the time - but I can't say for sure so never mind! I'll take what the market wants to give me :)

I'd just like to talk about the chart below. I hope no-one construes it as bragging because it's certainly not (hard to brag when trading performance is as unspectacular as it's been since I started this journal, and especially when I've just lost a trade!)

However, the main reason I started this journal was to prove that technical analysis can be used to good effect, and that it's not "complete bullsh*t" (or worse) as I've seen it described on these forums.

It's a blank 1h chart of GBP/USD, annotated with extracts from this journal. It shows that, using technical analysis alone, I was able to pretty accurately forecast, in advance, the price movement over the course of approximately 3 trading days.

If I'm able to do that, then there must be something to TA, right? :)
Click to expand...

I agee and disagree OK; firstly IMO (and I'm para-phrasing Mark Douglas here) an edge is nothing more than a higher probability of one event happening over and above another event happening, not sure how accurate forecasting can be done tbh. In relation to you using 1hr charts wtf didn't you take the long at midday on the 1st?? Or possibly go short midday today??
 
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Black Swan said:
I agee and disagree OK; firstly IMO (and I'm para-phrasing Mark Douglas here) an edge is nothing more than a higher probability of one event happening over and above another event happening, not sure how accurate forecasting can be done tbh.
Click to expand...

True enough - there was no specific "edge" that produced those predictions, more just a general reading of the market based on support/resistance, trend strength and one or two other things...

Black Swan said:
In relation to you using 1hr charts wtf didn't you take the long at midday on the 1st?? Or possibly go short midday today??
Click to expand...

1hr charts are just my trigger - I prefer to use longer timeframes for trend / overall view and I still perceived cable to be in a downtrend on the 1st, albeit a weakening one at that point. In point of fact the afternoon of the 1st was mostly spent in the pub anyway :LOL:

As for short today - no divergence good enough to trade as far as I can see. Still think a good short is coming but it might be a case of looking at daily candles / 4hr price patterns for a trigger now, unless we do break to new highs, in which case I reckon we could be looking at a move to around 4900 (maybe?) :)
 
SH-101 said:
True enough - there was no specific "edge" that produced those predictions, more just a general reading of the market based on support/resistance, trend strength and one or two other things...



1hr charts are just my trigger - I prefer to use longer timeframes for trend / overall view and I still perceived cable to be in a downtrend on the 1st, albeit a weakening one at that point. In point of fact the afternoon of the 1st was mostly spent in the pub anyway :LOL:

As for short today - no divergence good enough to trade as far as I can see. Still think a good short is coming but it might be a case of looking at daily candles / 4hr price patterns for a trigger now, unless we do break to new highs, in which case I reckon we could be looking at a move to around 4900 (maybe?) :)
Click to expand...


Doh! Forgot you only use 1hr as a possible trigger and not for all your decisions/trading etc... as you were...:)
 
its important only to trade when you feel like it though, all my mistakes have been when I'm tired, trying to hard !
SH seems to place the trade and then get out for a beer / cycle. this is good also as screen watching leads to tinkering with the trade too much
 
Stuck in an order to sell GBP/USD below yesterday's low at 1.4548 with stop 1.4778 - target open for now.

Not my usual entry technique so 2.5% risk again.
 
On the USD-bullish front, an interesting resistance area on NZD/USD... I won't be trading it though for various reasons, but mostly because I already have a bullish USD order pending order, in Cable.
 

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A few USD pairs, and the USD index, have the look about them of this being a sort of "tipping point" at the moment. I have a feeling we might see some significant USD movement in the near future.

Wouldn't like to say which way it will go - I have an order in based on one possible outcome (USD strength) but it may yet still go the other...
 
Having slept on it a bit, I've deleted my GBP/USD sell order. Although I think it's potentially a decent setup if price breaks that low, it's not as I said my usual entry technique, and therefore it feels a bit like chasing trades again, which I don't really want to get into!

Patience etc...
 
I'm not generally a candle pattern trader but it's worth noting the spinning top followed by inside bar on Cable daily. The inside bar has broken to the downside... but ahead of NFP that could be a fake.

If I do end up shorting cable it will be below 4500 and aiming for over 500 points, so it'll be a big one if it comes off :eek:
 
Fundamentally speaking, that seems like a poor NFP, which might actually be supportive of a dollar rally in terms of risk flows.... Technically speaking I could have told you that at 4750 :LOL: Well OK not exactly - this could still go the other way but we're getting close to some key levels now.

Order placed to sell GBP/USD Sep-10 Future at 1.4494, if-done stop 1.4786, if-done limit 1.3910.

Could be in this one for a while if it goes, so I've chosen to pay a larger spread and no rollover rather than vice-versa.
 
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Oh yeah - cable (sep fut) order was filled BTW :LOL:

Not much to report so far - hoping we'll have a run at yesterday's lows of the course of today.
 
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