Spreadbetting FX using TA

[SH-101]

So why did I fancy a cable long?

Daily chart was clearly trending up with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The 20ema crossing above the 60sma can also be used to indicate potential bullishness.

Decent bullish hidden divergence on the 4h chart, shown here in MACD, RSI and momentum oscillators.

A good support cluster - 23.6% retrace of the upswing from 20/05 to 08/07 combined with 61.8/76.4 retraces of the 01/07 to 08/07. Throw in the 100-day SMA (pink) and 20ema (yellow) and there's 4 reasons for support right there.

 

[SH-101]

OK so my cable long hit target at 5416 last night. From an initial stop of 155pts the trade hit the target of +328pts with relatively minor rollover charges.

I slightly miscalculated my position size on this trade so the risk was actually 5.05% initially, meaning my eventual gain on the trade was 10.58%, meeting my monthly target in one go.

I feel very stupid for not calling it in advance as I have with all other trades - I will try not to do so again! I've been busy programming over much of the last couple of weeks but save for a few minor bug-fixes that I'm sure will crop up I'm all done with that now so back to normal focus now

EUR/CHF order remains in play at the moment but will be removed if, as seems likely, we see a new 4h high.

 

[SH-101]

EUR/CHF order deleted.

 

[SH-101]

I have an eye on AUD/USD at the moment - if it starts to head higher from current levels I may well look to get on board.

 

[SH-101]

I have an eye on AUD/USD at the moment - if it starts to head higher from current levels I may well look to get on board.

Unless I happen to fall asleep without setting any entry orders! This journal is coming close to being re-named "SH's spreadbetting comedy of errors"

Keeping an eye on it should it drop back a little and give me another bite - but having already met target this month it's not the end of the world.

 

[SanMiguel]

Who fancies some cable shorts at present?

 

[advfntrader]

yes I'm short

 

[SanMiguel]

yes I'm short

What are you targeting?
I'm thinking around the 1.5400 - 1.5350 region...

 

[SH-101]

Not looking for any cable shorts here personally, although I can see why some might be interested there's not enough of a confluence of factors to suggest a significant top.

I can also see a case for a shorter-term long from around current levels, but again the signal isn't strong enough for me to trade so I'm standing aside at the moment. Might have another look at short potential if we can break above 1.57...

 

[SanMiguel]

Not looking for any cable shorts here personally, although I can see why some might be interested there's not enough of a confluence of factors to suggest a significant top.

I can also see a case for a shorter-term long from around current levels, but again the signal isn't strong enough for me to trade so I'm standing aside at the moment. Might have another look at short potential if we can break above 1.57...

I'll list some reasons-not sure what you reckon:
Short: Bounce off weekly 50MA, Daily pin bar from yesterday, 1.5650 level rejected price strongly, 4hr channel is very overbought (usually corrects every 1 or 2 weeks), 1hr chart levelling off.
Long: Trend, 1hr chart could just be consolidating, possible bounce and 4hr pin bar off 20MA.

The longer term TFs seem to show more on the short side.

 

[SH-101]

This being the last trading day of the month, and having hit target already this month, and having missed an earlier entry, I'll be staying out of it - but, AUD/JPY looks a tempting long from current levels.

 

[SH-101]

I'm putting work on the auto-traders on the backburner for a while, so going forward, and subject to the markets playing ball, I'd hope to be posting more trades to this journal than in recent months.

 

[SH-101]

Quiet so far this month for setups - typically August. A good one on EUR/CHF while I was away in Manchester some weeks back but that's about it.

Order placed to sell NZD/USD 0.7060, stop 0.7130, limit 0.6935.

 

[SH-101]

Order above deleted on account of mis-reading my charts. Summer trading messes with the mind

 

[SH-101]

Order placed to sell EUR/GBP at 0.8175, if-done stop 0.8219, if-done limit 0.8104.

 

[SH-101]

Order above deleted as market rallies through previous high.

 

[SH-101]

One eye on AUD/USD at the moment for a potential long - we'll see how it develops.

 

[SH-101]

Order placed to buy AUD/USD at 0.8837, stop 0.8765, limit 0.8965.

 

[SanMiguel]

Order placed to buy AUD/USD at 0.8837, stop 0.8765, limit 0.8965.

immediate resistance 8900?

 

[SH-101]

immediate resistance 8900?

Quite possibly - however I see signs that this is a stronger reversal than that level can contain. Of course I'm not always right...

Order filled - briefly, setup saw a general uptrend on monthly/weekly charts (as per screenshot 1, which also shows a potential resistance-turned-support area). Screenshot 2 shows hidden divergence in the daily and regular divergence in the 4h.