Some of my trades, forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

MT, if I didn't already get in a little early on this, then it would have been 1.5889 as per the post in #507. I would now need a clse above that without a railroad being formed the next day to convince me the DOWN has not begun. I do believe that, once and for all, there is too much upside pressure on this leg UP.

If cable can manage another leg upon this move to the confluence zone 1.6123 - 1.6200 i will start to scale in short positions. Do youhave a short entry zone on this pair 4x?

 

[4xpipcounter]

USD/CHF radar

This is the 4th of 5. Kiwi is next.
For swissy, all we have to go with is the weekly chart. I have been saying since I joined T2W that swissy was on its way to the bottom of the cloud, and the weekly shows that proof. The only thing that leaves my immedaite bullish inclinations to duobt is the fact the stochs did not cross over smoothly. That leaves some vulnerability. There is also some concern when the pair above the TK combo yesterday, and then immediately retreated. OTT, we should see a move back to the top of the cloud, and even hitting the kijun, now at 1.1039. The top of the cloud is 1.0930, and the 76.4% mark of YP--YR1 is 1.0946, so a strong spike would be needed if the top of the cloud is containment. The kijun is on the radar, as long as we get the impulsive clean initial move UP that we need.

 

[4xpipcounter]

The 1st Friday of August

The title could only mean vacation starts. I will shut the computer down as soon as things quiet down after NFP. That should be around 11:00 am EST / 4:00 pm GMT. I might be back next Friday, on time to trade, and if I don't feel like it, then it will be the following Monday. This has been my routine for 13 years. The nice thing is the new trends are in their infancy, so I will not even have to watch the trades. I'll just come back to lots of pips....I hope.

 

[4xpipcounter]

NZD/USD radar

Kiwi is not giving us a lot to look at, but it did bring with it some strong obviations on the monthly chart, andin a subtle way the crosses. It looks comparatively weak agaisnt most of the crosses, particualrly swissy and the loonie. Since this DOWN begin in Feb 2008, it has had trouble breaking through the top of the cloud. Also look at how bullish the tenken and kijun still looks, and look at the cloud as projected in to the future. This all adds up to a very radaristic .6325.

 

[JahDave]

NFP better favor the USD or we are going to have a case on our hands. This could be what it is building to. A rarity happened earlier today. During the London session the candle bridged the WR2 and WR1, and the low for the day was established during London for cable.
For the life of me, I can't beleive me another peak is going to be established for kiwi, cable, or the euro.

Hi Paul,

This will be my first EW post for cable....LOL...so don't expect too much. Anyway, my personal opinion is that the cable, euro and aussie should have already been going down, but my charts say different. Please let me know how my levels compare to your S&R's. My two most probable resistance levels are 1.6165 and 1.6435. I think at that point we will have a very nice pullback but ,maybe still one more high after that, possibly to the 1.8250 area. After that probably a year or more of downside.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Well, you are the second one who does not like my forecast that the DOWN has begun.
You are really not going to believe this, but I'll let you in on a little secret. My YP is 1.6163, and the 23.6% level of YP--YR1 is 1.6436.
My 76.4% of YR!--YR2 is 1.8206. Actually, I'd like to see 1.8668 hit. That is the bomb daddy there. It's the decade's R1 If the yearlies reap explosions, then the decades reap weapons of mass destruction.

Hi Paul,

This will be my first EW post for cable....LOL...so don't expect too much. Anyway, my personal opinion is that the cable, euro and aussie should have already been going down, but my charts say different. Please let me know how my levels compare to your S&R's. My two most probable resistance levels are 1.6165 and 1.6435. I think at that point we will have a very nice pullback but ,maybe still one more high after that, possibly to the 1.8250 area. After that probably a year or more of downside.

 

[JahDave]

Well, you are the second one who does not like my forecast that the DOWN has begun.
You are really not going to believe this, but I'll let you in on a little secret. My YP is 1.6163, and the 23.6% level of YP--YR1 is 1.6436.
My 76.4% of YR!--YR2 is 1.8206. Actually, I'd like to see 1.8668 hit. That is the bomb daddy there. It's the decade's R1 If the yearlies reap explosions, then the decades reap weapons of mass destruction.

I still cannot fathom how I can analyze a chart and be so close to your S&R levels. It is almost scary when you consider that your levels have been done for so long. Anyway Paul, I would love to believe that the down has already begun because I have already traded that way on several currency pairs. I guess I will just state it out loud for the whole world to see. I have a hard time still today believing what my charts are telling me, but as more time goes by I am finding that the TA is usually right and my gut is usually wrong. It is a hard thing to trust when you feel differently, but I am becoming a believer in TA. I am 99% there but just need a small nudge to be 100%. Especially when 90% of the analysts say that TA is bunk.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I've always believed that analysis will be similar with 2 different methodologies if they are enshrouded with success. But to have practically opposite methodologies and yield the results as close as ours can be scary.
Just for the record and so no one thinks we are behind the scenes copying each other, my yearly S&R's were already figured as soon as the year started, and in retrospect, my dailies, 4-hour, weeklies, and monthlies. They have been apart of me since 2007. That is when I came up with its total derivation.
Considering I am not doubting my method of trading. I am thinking the TA's have set up perfectly for the NFP to be in favor of the USD tomorrow. Regardless, I'm going on vacation, no matter what happens.
I'm a 100% believer in TA's. This is why I believe the news lines up with the technicals, and not vice versa. I also realize that is subject to argument, depended who you talk to.

I still cannot fathom how I can analyze a chart and be so close to your S&R levels. It is almost scary when you consider that your levels have been done for so long. Anyway Paul, I would love to believe that the down has already begun because I have already traded that way on several currency pairs. I guess I will just state it out loud for the whole world to see. I have a hard time still today believing what my charts are telling me, but as more time goes by I am finding that the TA is usually right and my gut is usually wrong. It is a hard thing to trust when you feel differently, but I am becoming a believer in TA. I am 99% there but just need a small nudge to be 100%. Especially when 90% of the analysts say that TA is bunk.

 

[JahDave]

I've always believed that analysis will be similar with 2 different methodologies if they are enshrouded with success. But to have practically opposite methodologies and yield the results as close as ours can be scary.
Just for the record and so no one thinks we are behind the scenes copying each other, my yearly S&R's were already figured as soon as the year started, and in retrospect, my dailies, 4-hour, weeklies, and monthlies. They have been apart of me since 2007. That is when I came up with its total derivation.
Considering I am not doubting my method of trading. I am thinking the TA's have set up perfectly for the NFP to be in favor of the USD tomorrow. Regardless, I'm going on vacation, no matter what happens.
I'm a 100% believer in TA's. This is why I believe the news lines up with the technicals, and not vice versa. I also realize that is subject to argument, depended who you talk to.

I have decided from my own experience that social mood does align with TA and not the other way around. I know that mass social mood is what makes the markets move, but fibbonacci seems to be the way the universe is programmed.

 

[4xpipcounter]

True story, but it happened a few years ago. I was showing my wife how Fibos worked. I was hoping Tucker would do nothing to mess this up for us. Me and him were getting ready for our walk, but first he had to water the trees before we took off. He walks to the back side of the house after he walks out the door. He waters that tree, then we measured that distance. Then he walks past the door he exited out of the house and waters a bush. The bush was 1.382 times the distance from the house as it was the initial tree he watered. Then he walks up closer to the end of the property, which was exactly 50% of the distance from the bush he watered frmo the house to that current spot. Then he walked to the end of the property, which is containment R, and he knew it.
The only bummer of this vacation is that it is the only trip of the year we take, where Tucker can't go.

I have decided from my own experience that social mood does align with TA and not the other way around. I know that mass social mood is what makes the markets move, but fibbonacci seems to be the way the universe is programmed.

 

[JahDave]

True story, but it happened a few years ago. I was showing my wife how Fibos worked. I was hoping Tucker would do nothing to mess this up for us. Me and him were getting ready for our walk, but first he had to water the trees before we took off. He walks to the back side of the house after he walks out the door. He waters that tree, then we measured that distance. Then he walks past the door he exited out of the house and waters a bush. The bush was 1.382 times the distance from the house as it was the initial tree he watered. Then he walks up closer to the end of the property, which was exactly 50% of the distance from the bush he watered frmo the house to that current spot. Then he walked to the end of the property, which is containment R, and he knew it.
The only bummer of this vacation is that it is the only trip of the year we take, where Tucker can't go.

I am LMAO right now...........Everything seems to be programmed by Fibo........

 

[JahDave]

If we like it or not.....

 

[JahDave]

Just for the record Paul..........I only trade my own signals as well......That doesn't mean that there are not better traders than me, but I haven't met any of them yet....LOL......

 

[4xpipcounter]

Hint, hint.

If we like it or not.....

 

[4xpipcounter]

I'm sure you do.
I'm sure there aren't better traders than me, which is why I trade my own.
Now, let's get a big long pin and burst that oversized growth in our head. pssssss. That's better.

Just for the record Paul..........I only trade my own signals as well......That doesn't mean that there are not better traders than me, but I haven't met any of them yet....LOL......

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: GBP/JPY trade

Okay, target hit. Now, it's time to hit the road.
I'll talk to everyone on the other side of my vacation. Have a good week!

Went short at 136.37; target--135.53

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Re: GBP/JPY trade

Okay, target hit. Now, it's time to hit the road.
I'll talk to everyone on the other side of my vacation. Have a good week!

you didnt say where your stop was

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: GBP/JPY trade

Caught your message on the e-mail while getting ready.
I didn't have one. I hardly ever do. The reason I put one on the GBP/CHF was knowing the implications on the daily weekly, and monthly charts. The GBP/CHF trade also showed why I don't like stops. Any kind of a spike takes you out of the ballgame.

you didnt say where your stop was

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Re: GBP/JPY trade

Caught your message on the e-mail while getting ready.
I didn't have one. I hardly ever do. The reason I put one on the GBP/CHF was knowing the implications on the daily weekly, and monthly charts. The GBP/CHF trade also showed why I don't like stops. Any kind of a spike takes you out of the ballgame.

i take your point,but you must have had an emotional stop. you say you give outstanding forcasts but yet you hardly mentioned you were still in the trade until it went your way.How are people watching you meant to take that. You clearly are very knowlegeable and yes people could learn from your methods but that does not make you a good trader which you claim to be. We can all have spanish stops as they known on here. i hope you take my point in the right way as you have a lot to offer

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: GBP/JPY trade

I have no problems with being challenged as a trader. It does me good, so I take your intent perfectly well.
Now, I'm going to ask you to take me the right way. My trades are not designed to garner a following. If I can be of help or a benefit to someone, then I want to be in place to do that that. My trades are simply deisgned to challenge me and even encourage good dialogue, which is being done even right now.
If someone feels I am of dubious integrity because they feel my motive is not clear, then they should not follow my thread. When I first started trading 5 years ago, I followed Action Forex and Max McKegg, because personally, I thought those two sources were the best in the business, and still do. I looked at copious others in my beginnings, but felt they were of dubious integrity, so I shunned them.
Once the trade closes, whether for me or against me, it's going to get announced. As I mentioned in another post, eventually, I will be announcing huge wins on my 5 trades currently up. For now, they are all losing, and that's okay. I'm in those trades, because the forecaster I follow was wrong, of whom is me. I don't have a problem with showing my human side. I have extreme confidence in what I do, and showing my humanity blends in some humility with that, which is very needed in trading. It always helps me to realize that I am not bigger than the markets.
It is also human nature to not say a whole lot when 5 trades are going against you, but stand up on a giant podium and announce all the pips that a series of winning trades netted.
Don't forget, 80% of my trades are winners (July was lower.), so most of my trades will be announced as going my way. Again, I'm human, so don't think I'm getting up on the podium and yell, Rah rah rah!" when my trades are going against me. That doesn't do me any good.
I also do not post all my trades, just a few of them. Again, this venue is not designed to make me accountable for all my trades. It is designed (my persepctive) to challenge me, to maybe be of a free service to someone else, and encourage healthy dialogues, which I feel your queries have perfectly stimualted that goal.

i take your point,but you must have had an emotional stop. you say you give outstanding forcasts but yet you hardly mentioned you were still in the trade until it went your way.How are people watching you meant to take that. You clearly are very knowlegeable and yes people could learn from your methods but that does not make you a good trader which you claim to be. We can all have spanish stops as they known on here. i hope you take my point in the right way as you have a lot to offer