Metals trader
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Out the rest +100
Some of my trades, forecasts
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Out the rest +100
4xpipcounter
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Yes, it was -8 pips. even though it hit that cluster area, I had to make the stop tight, because of knowing I would be away, the strong obviations on the higher TF's, and in not wanting to nurse another achillies heel. The five original trades from last week are now a net gain, and they do have a long way to go.
4xpipcounter
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Excellent Metalstrader. The trades that spin on a dime are more fun, but we'll take the pips any way we can get them.
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Cheers 4x. Thanks for the 44 heads up on that trade, it took its bloody time though!
I was looking to short AUDNZD at 1.26 but it didnt quite get there this AM, prob too bullish daily anyhow. anything on your radar today?
I was looking to short AUDNZD at 1.26 but it didnt quite get there this AM, prob too bullish daily anyhow. anything on your radar today?
4xpipcounter
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As far as the AUD/NZD is concerned, it did a 38.2% off the MR1 at 1.2572 and is now ready for a continuation to the WR2 at 1.2622. That circa area might temporarily contain the UP. An even more ideal situation is for the pair to hit the weekly 200 MA at 1.2662, get a slight spike through it to the MR2 at 1.2682. That scenario will add some excitement to your short ala yesterday's GBP/CHF scenario.
I got a case of insomnia, and it is still the middle of the night. I will post a radar report a little later today. Lots of heavy hitters up.
Even though I'm half asleep right now, I'll give you some of the stronger obviations brewing, but go more in detail later. The posted levels will all be hit:
GBP/USD--1.5720, 1.5584, 1.5447, 1.5278. The latter will be strong support, but could be broken, and then would thrust price towards 1.5005.
EUR/USD--1.3106, 1.2857, 1.2569
GBP/CHF--Strong support at 1.2571, and then back into the UP. It's flying under low weekly cloud covering. The view will be better once it gets through the cloud. Now, would be the time for it to make its move, because it is a very thin cloud.
USD/CHF--Cluster S event coming up at 1.0404---10412, then a return to the UP. IF the weekly stochs smoothens out a bit, then it officially puts 1.0930 on the radar.
AUD/USD--Still has the UP to complete towards .9238, and then .8082. It will go lower, but that is what is showing for now.
NZD/USD--Aussie's cousin already left Dodge, as it has begun the journey towards .6325.
NZD/CHF--This is a strange one. Unless, it gets in a mood I know nothing about, then it is on to .6915. With exceeding Swiss weakness projected for the future, then it is implied kiwi is really going to do spiraling down the hill.
Here's an ironic twist. None of the yen crosses are on my radar. Because of the projection for the USD/JPY, and with 5 of the majors on the radar, then it is implied the yen crosses are taking their jets south.
Also, the EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are on the radar, but much longer term.
You did fine on the GBP/CHF. 100 overnight pips is the way to go.
I got a case of insomnia, and it is still the middle of the night. I will post a radar report a little later today. Lots of heavy hitters up.
Even though I'm half asleep right now, I'll give you some of the stronger obviations brewing, but go more in detail later. The posted levels will all be hit:
GBP/USD--1.5720, 1.5584, 1.5447, 1.5278. The latter will be strong support, but could be broken, and then would thrust price towards 1.5005.
EUR/USD--1.3106, 1.2857, 1.2569
GBP/CHF--Strong support at 1.2571, and then back into the UP. It's flying under low weekly cloud covering. The view will be better once it gets through the cloud. Now, would be the time for it to make its move, because it is a very thin cloud.
USD/CHF--Cluster S event coming up at 1.0404---10412, then a return to the UP. IF the weekly stochs smoothens out a bit, then it officially puts 1.0930 on the radar.
AUD/USD--Still has the UP to complete towards .9238, and then .8082. It will go lower, but that is what is showing for now.
NZD/USD--Aussie's cousin already left Dodge, as it has begun the journey towards .6325.
NZD/CHF--This is a strange one. Unless, it gets in a mood I know nothing about, then it is on to .6915. With exceeding Swiss weakness projected for the future, then it is implied kiwi is really going to do spiraling down the hill.
Here's an ironic twist. None of the yen crosses are on my radar. Because of the projection for the USD/JPY, and with 5 of the majors on the radar, then it is implied the yen crosses are taking their jets south.
Also, the EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are on the radar, but much longer term.
You did fine on the GBP/CHF. 100 overnight pips is the way to go.
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Nice call. GBPCHF got down to 1.6571 right enough, that means i left 65 pips on the table. arghh. C'est la vie.
4xpipcounter
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I look at it like this. Just put a t-bone on my table, and then you can also leave some pips on the table, too. I've been leaving a ton on the table of late, but not so many that it will hinder vacation plans as of tomorrow.
I'm strange along those lines. I just look at it that I need to keep winning consistently. If I do, then the bills are paid, and Tucker also gets nice dog treats.
BTW, I checked the 4-hour chart for the GBP/CHF. The drop may not be over. The combination WR1 and kijun could be hit at 1.6467. The 1-hour cloud is going to be easy to get around in order to perpetuate that move. As a matter a fact, I knwo it is late in the drop, but 1.6467 is even looking radarish.
I'm strange along those lines. I just look at it that I need to keep winning consistently. If I do, then the bills are paid, and Tucker also gets nice dog treats.
BTW, I checked the 4-hour chart for the GBP/CHF. The drop may not be over. The combination WR1 and kijun could be hit at 1.6467. The 1-hour cloud is going to be easy to get around in order to perpetuate that move. As a matter a fact, I knwo it is late in the drop, but 1.6467 is even looking radarish.
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4xpipcounter
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GBP/USD radar
Before I get started on this segment of the radar picks, I should define what a radar is. A radar is not an indicator or some fancy line drawing tool. A radar is my personal, invented seamantic.
Simply put when conditions of any market have obviations of it hitting a certain point, then that point is on my radar. It could go beyond that point, so it is not implied that it is containment.
As the journey for the pair continues, the radar gets adjusted. Ichimoku is dynamic, so it adjusts because of time. The bigger the TF, the more stable the target will be.
Now, let's start off with cable. It is my favorite of the majors.....First, I mention the "ear popping" conditions of the pair. The daily cloud chart shows that condition. Consider that to be the alitmeter, and it's saying, "Whoa! We are up way too high, so we have to come down. Planes do that. They may be in the mountains and have to fly over certain conditions. After they get beyond them, then they have to obey the altimeter and come down.
The daily is also showing some of the obstructions it is going to have to face before reaching the final destination. The journey begins at the 23.6% mark of YP--YS1. The next four levels--38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 76.4% are 1.5720, 1.5584, 1.5447, and 1.5278. I mentioned in another post that 1.5278 is on the radar, but by looking at the daily, 1.5458 is on the radar (Look at that number by comparison to the 61.8% mark at 1.5447, and it tells you that will be a strong S range.). The reason that by looking at the daily 1.5458 is on the radar is to look at the stochastics, which is extremely OB. When the signal and value lines are above the dotted line, that's all you need to know. It is headed to the kijun.
The weekly tells a bit of a different story, and even tells us more pips to be gained on this journey, because its radar sees further. It's the same story on the stochastics. 1.5278 shows a pike under the cloud. My assumption in putting that number on the radar is that the kijun will turn with the tenken nad form a meeting place in that circa area. That area is going to be real tough to get around, because of the 61.8% mark, the bottom of the cloud and the TK combo.
Uo to this point, the monthly is showing what could be the beginning of a bullish LT journey. This bear run is going to determine that fate. If 1.5278 is containment, then we will have higher ground to explore.
The radar also works for when we fly into a cloud. Odds are we fly in one side and out the other. The exception would be a false spike or headfake.
Also, notice how well behaved price action is within the confines of the Fibos relative to my YS&R's. That is all the Fibos are. They are drawn from one reference point to the next. They are also predetermined at the beginning of the year, as many of you already know when you requested them.
Before I get started on this segment of the radar picks, I should define what a radar is. A radar is not an indicator or some fancy line drawing tool. A radar is my personal, invented seamantic.
Simply put when conditions of any market have obviations of it hitting a certain point, then that point is on my radar. It could go beyond that point, so it is not implied that it is containment.
As the journey for the pair continues, the radar gets adjusted. Ichimoku is dynamic, so it adjusts because of time. The bigger the TF, the more stable the target will be.
Now, let's start off with cable. It is my favorite of the majors.....First, I mention the "ear popping" conditions of the pair. The daily cloud chart shows that condition. Consider that to be the alitmeter, and it's saying, "Whoa! We are up way too high, so we have to come down. Planes do that. They may be in the mountains and have to fly over certain conditions. After they get beyond them, then they have to obey the altimeter and come down.
The daily is also showing some of the obstructions it is going to have to face before reaching the final destination. The journey begins at the 23.6% mark of YP--YS1. The next four levels--38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 76.4% are 1.5720, 1.5584, 1.5447, and 1.5278. I mentioned in another post that 1.5278 is on the radar, but by looking at the daily, 1.5458 is on the radar (Look at that number by comparison to the 61.8% mark at 1.5447, and it tells you that will be a strong S range.). The reason that by looking at the daily 1.5458 is on the radar is to look at the stochastics, which is extremely OB. When the signal and value lines are above the dotted line, that's all you need to know. It is headed to the kijun.
The weekly tells a bit of a different story, and even tells us more pips to be gained on this journey, because its radar sees further. It's the same story on the stochastics. 1.5278 shows a pike under the cloud. My assumption in putting that number on the radar is that the kijun will turn with the tenken nad form a meeting place in that circa area. That area is going to be real tough to get around, because of the 61.8% mark, the bottom of the cloud and the TK combo.
Uo to this point, the monthly is showing what could be the beginning of a bullish LT journey. This bear run is going to determine that fate. If 1.5278 is containment, then we will have higher ground to explore.
The radar also works for when we fly into a cloud. Odds are we fly in one side and out the other. The exception would be a false spike or headfake.
Also, notice how well behaved price action is within the confines of the Fibos relative to my YS&R's. That is all the Fibos are. They are drawn from one reference point to the next. They are also predetermined at the beginning of the year, as many of you already know when you requested them.
4xpipcounter
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Dave, post # 488 tells the story. There has been a bit of downside pressure, but that needs to accelerate, or the extension to the 23.6% level will be realized. Check my charts with my S&R's on them and you will see it rarely happens that price action stops in mid air. We need a daily close below the tenken at .9043, and the best scenario, below .8974, to increase any confidence that the DOWN has begun.
Maybe your EW tells a different story. I'm all ears.
Maybe your EW tells a different story. I'm all ears.
JahDave
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As usual We're pretty closely aligned. I'm looking for a break below the .9067 to confirm the down trend has begun and if there is any upside left it should end around the .9237
4xpipcounter
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This is where my self-proclaimed "ice in my veins" really helps. Calling a reversal spot on looks cool and caters, big time, to the ego. Bottom line, pips are pips. Bottom is when the bull run for the USD is over, this will be but a glitch on the screen, and the only thing that will be noticed are the 1,000's of pips that were made after the positions were closed.
Sometimes you have to reflect on past successes to put everything in perspective. Last year (proof is on my blog), I entered a short on cable at 1.6650, for the life of me I was doing what I am doing now--trying to figure out what is forestalling everything. It backed up on me to 1.6877. Finally, it got its head on straight, and I took it out at 1,4650. In case your wondering, I did do it on purpose. I wanted an even amount of pips--2,000. Just another strange part of me. That same week, it dipped under1.4500. It took me 6 months ot he week to earn those pips. I wasn't concerned about technicalities.
It's these experiences that still keep you humble. If everything you call is perfect, i.e, the GBP/CHF call from yesterday, then we get spoiled, and afterwards, over-confident. That leads to disaster.
I once had 26 consecutive winning trades. The next month, Oct. 2007, was the last losing month I had.
A few weeks ago I had my first losing week since Oct.2007. That was followed by 2 months of being red hot. Thus, the ups and downs of trading. Stay level emotionally, and you will survive the downs.
Sometimes you have to reflect on past successes to put everything in perspective. Last year (proof is on my blog), I entered a short on cable at 1.6650, for the life of me I was doing what I am doing now--trying to figure out what is forestalling everything. It backed up on me to 1.6877. Finally, it got its head on straight, and I took it out at 1,4650. In case your wondering, I did do it on purpose. I wanted an even amount of pips--2,000. Just another strange part of me. That same week, it dipped under1.4500. It took me 6 months ot he week to earn those pips. I wasn't concerned about technicalities.
It's these experiences that still keep you humble. If everything you call is perfect, i.e, the GBP/CHF call from yesterday, then we get spoiled, and afterwards, over-confident. That leads to disaster.
I once had 26 consecutive winning trades. The next month, Oct. 2007, was the last losing month I had.
A few weeks ago I had my first losing week since Oct.2007. That was followed by 2 months of being red hot. Thus, the ups and downs of trading. Stay level emotionally, and you will survive the downs.
4xpipcounter
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GBP/JPY trade
Went short at 136.37; target--135.53
Went short at 136.37; target--135.53
4xpipcounter
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NFP better favor the USD or we are going to have a case on our hands. This could be what it is building to. A rarity happened earlier today. During the London session the candle bridged the WR2 and WR1, and the low for the day was established during London for cable.
For the life of me, I can't beleive me another peak is going to be established for kiwi, cable, or the euro.
For the life of me, I can't beleive me another peak is going to be established for kiwi, cable, or the euro.
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EUR/USD radar
This pair has a bit of a different look than its cousin, the GBP/USD. We do have triple bearish divergence, which means, "Look out below!" What that effectively does it puts the 23.6% of the YS2--YS1 on the radar at 1.2963, which is also a few points below the daily kijun.
The weekly chart, once again, shows a different story. It's a nice stochastic curl over (at least getting ready to) in OB territory. The tenken is at 1.2569, which represents a spike just under the YS2. 1.2640 also represents strong support. Projected for the proximity into the future, it would match nicely with the top of the daily cloud. There's still potential for a further drop, but only time will tell (yeah, yeah, worn out cliche).
This pair has a bit of a different look than its cousin, the GBP/USD. We do have triple bearish divergence, which means, "Look out below!" What that effectively does it puts the 23.6% of the YS2--YS1 on the radar at 1.2963, which is also a few points below the daily kijun.
The weekly chart, once again, shows a different story. It's a nice stochastic curl over (at least getting ready to) in OB territory. The tenken is at 1.2569, which represents a spike just under the YS2. 1.2640 also represents strong support. Projected for the proximity into the future, it would match nicely with the top of the daily cloud. There's still potential for a further drop, but only time will tell (yeah, yeah, worn out cliche).
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4xpipcounter
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Quiad, I think cable and the euro are teasing. The pairs are busting at the seams to take off. Tomorrow's NFP will have a lot to say about that.
What makes you believe your view? I'm curious.
What makes you believe your view? I'm curious.
Hi again Paul. I guess like everyone else I am long on the dollar (very long actually!).. unfortunately, my oracle doesn't agree. I believe more peaks will be established for the cable and euro
Not my view.. my oracle And I would like to not believe it. If you recall I mentioned that I use Ichimoku too, but time and again the person concerned has been proven right (that GBP and EUR will break the daily cloud etc.).. so I think I am finally giving in..
I think the bottom line is not that the EUR or GBP are getting stronger - USD weakness is driving the others up.
Hope this helps somehow.
And I would like to not believe it. If you recall I mentioned that I use Ichimoku too, but time and again the person concerned has been proven right (that GBP and EUR will break the daily cloud etc.).. so I think I am finally giving in..I think the bottom line is not that the EUR or GBP are getting stronger - USD weakness is driving the others up.
Hope this helps somehow.
4xpipcounter
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I assume you mean cable breaking through the weekly cloud. I believe that is still a possibility, but not on this leg.
In using ichimoku, there is a trait that happens with undenaible continuity, adn that is when price flies to high above the cloud, it will gravitate back towards the cloud. Right now on the daily, the candle is baout 600 pips above the cloud. It has to give it up.
Cable is so OB that it is at +2 sigma which yields a 98% chance of it retracing approximately 600 points from the peak, which also matches up nicely with the cloud.
The stochastics are also showing the same thing.
Without a doubt on the USD weakness. It has been falling against everything, so it is not the strength of its counterpart that has been moving the currency, but its own weakness.
We'll have to see. I have been wrong a few times lately, but there is still no other forecast I trust more than my own.
BTW, are you at liberty to say who your oracle is?
In using ichimoku, there is a trait that happens with undenaible continuity, adn that is when price flies to high above the cloud, it will gravitate back towards the cloud. Right now on the daily, the candle is baout 600 pips above the cloud. It has to give it up.
Cable is so OB that it is at +2 sigma which yields a 98% chance of it retracing approximately 600 points from the peak, which also matches up nicely with the cloud.
The stochastics are also showing the same thing.
Without a doubt on the USD weakness. It has been falling against everything, so it is not the strength of its counterpart that has been moving the currency, but its own weakness.
We'll have to see. I have been wrong a few times lately, but there is still no other forecast I trust more than my own.
BTW, are you at liberty to say who your oracle is?
Not my view.. my oracle
I think the bottom line is not that the EUR or GBP are getting stronger - USD weakness is driving the others up.
Hope this helps somehow.
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If cable can manage another leg upon this move to the confluence zone 1.6123 - 1.6200 i will start to scale in short positions. Do youhave a short entry zone on this pair 4x?
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