Some of my trades, forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

This not spin, but the positive side to all this is the farther off you are wrong, the stronger and more violent move you get when it does reverse. These are times that if you have a high risk appetite, like I do, then it pays to have the capital backing you up.
Here's something that has happened a few times in the past. It looks pretty ugly right now, but somewhere in the futures I am reporting 1,000's of + pips, and then I get repsonses like, "What are you talking about!?" I'll never forget near the beginning of 2008, I took an ugly ride on the EUR/NZD. I was using the TRM charts to collaborate with my S&R's. Relative to the S&R's and the +2 sigma, I had what I thought was a perfect entry. Well, price action didn't see it that way, and I'll admit there was a couple of factors I overlooked. As it turned out, I ended up with 5 positions and 3 hedges. It was the ugliest ride I took in reverse. I cashed in the hedges, and eventually, the pair hit an astronomical +4 sigma. I ended up with all 5 positions with an absurb +4,000 pips. I've set it before I have ice in my veins, but it was still not worth it. That ice was melting quick on that trade. It's trades like those that quickly make up for the proverbial spin on a dime type. The type you set the trade before you go to bed, then wake up to lots of pips. LOL, I haven't had too many of those lately. It's starting to feel like work.

Hey Paul,
All I can say is that I am very surprised myself and the reversal should be spectacular.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Djia

This is another market that has gotten completely away. The thing to look for here is when we see the USD strength take over is about the time when we will see that next big drop on the part of the DJIA.
Here's the ironic twist. It is not the USD weakness that will move the DJIA. There is a correlation between how the yen moves and the DJIA. It is actually yen strength that correlates (Just the rule or norm.) with the market moving down and vice versa. Recently, we have seen yen strength against the USD, but general weakness against all currencies. Once the forecasted moves on the majors happens, that is when we will also see the yen crosses spiraling downward. That will also be when we see the Dow Jones on another freefall.

 

[Metals trader]

1.6162 is the upper sigma band. if it gets up there will be good short opportunity.

 

[4xpipcounter]

You could be right. If the current level does not hold, then the area of 1.6146 marks a strong confluence of events. When it does happen, its's going to come crashing down.

1.6162 is the upper sigma band. if it gets up there will be good short opportunity.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I wanted to post the daily and weekly charts for cable just to show what I am looking at.
The daily shows why I was saying that cable is in ear popping territory. Notice how high above the cloud it is flying. Also the stichastics indicate how OB the pair is. There is a strong possibility the DOWN has begun if we finish the day with a bear candle or a doji.
The weekly is showing how it is approaching the top of the cloud. Also notice how bearish it looks into the future.
This is why, I am just being patient with it. Payday is around the corner.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/usd

I don't know what happen, but in the previous post the attachments did not attach.

 

[Metals trader]

Agree about patience. I want to short here but myideal short zone is between 1.6150 and 1.62.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Your 1.6150 is starting to look ideal. 1.6168 is the YP along with the top of the weekly cloud. Projected 3 weeks from now, the candle is at the top. One for for sure, it is busting at the seams waiting for things to happen. The euro is also ready to explode.

Agree about patience. I want to short here but myideal short zone is between 1.6150 and 1.62.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Another perspective on the GBP/USD

Metalstrader, here is a chart that would further confirm your observation. Today, cable finished above 1.5889. That level is 76.4% of my YS1--YP. In an uptrend, when the candle has finished above the 76.4% point, then it is on to the next reference point, which is this case, is the YP at 1.6163.
If this does happen, then the pair reaches extreme blowout proportions, and then it is on. It is expected that we would get a minimum completed yearly cycle, which is 1,158 pips, which means the fall takes us back to 1.5005.
It is also implied, but I hate to confirm it, that the LT downtrend is over, mainly because it is so rare that a mere bounce goes longer than 1 yearly cycle, and this went 1.764 cycles. This is why I love my personal S&R's so much, is because they tell me a lolt more than where the next S or R will be.

 

[Metals trader]

Nice analysis. the daily upper band of the standard deviation channel is 1.6107 also.

Im waiting for the aftereffects of the non farm payrolls number on friday as if expected its weak then the $ will be sold across the board, especially against cable, which will give us opportunitis toscale in.

 

[4xpipcounter]

There was a point I made in the previous post about 1.5889 being a key level. As of this writing today's low has been 1.5891. This is why I am not convinced that we are ready to go DOWN yet, asnd that we are ehaded to 1.6163.
Just for the record, I am ready to double up on my cable position at that point.
I know the news creates spikes in price action, but I just don't trade in anticipation of it, but I will admit this. If we are near 1.6163, then the NFP report moves in favor of the USD and there will be no looking back. If we are still struggling at current levels, then we need the news, with the volume that will come with it to thrust against USD to push towards the aforementioned level.
The reason cable moves faster during US news than the other majors is because it moves faster by nature. It has been quite awhile since we have netted a strong one-way move because of the NFP. When we do get it, we get these long candles on all the crosses with the USD. When you add up the pips, it always seems to favor cable. The tell-tale sign is not the net obviation, but what we see in the crosses. Many times, we see dojis form on the 5-minute candles, which means a net gain of zero. This also means that relative to the median range of the respective currencies, cable didn't move any faster than the rest of the currencies.
I have a question for you, Metalstrader. The standard channel you spoke of, is that from the Bollinger bands or from another related indicator you might have? Deviation channels are created in many ways, even though a common way are the Bollinger bands. A less common way, but probably more accurate are the TRM sigma bands and the curvilinear envelopes.

Nice analysis. the daily upper band of the standard deviation channel is 1.6107 also.

Im waiting for the aftereffects of the non farm payrolls number on friday as if expected its weak then the $ will be sold across the board, especially against cable, which will give us opportunitis toscale in.

 

[Metals trader]

Its just a channel that computes lines that show 1,2 and 3 standard deviations from price over a period x (i use it on daily charts over from a 1 year period and 4 hr charts using 3 month price data) and combine that with divergences for high probability entries.

 

[4xpipcounter]

In trying to call the turning point for the majors, it is obvious, I have not exactly been spot on. The one thing that is certain is that when they do turn around, it is going to be huge. Provided there are no headfakes, here some things to look for over the next 24 hours.
Cable is now under some huge pressure. It has finally found its way below the 4-hour tenken at 1.5911. It's absurd how OB the pair really is. The key level to watch for is 1.5889. A daily close below that could be all we need to send this pair on a mad dash south. So, if we get, then the only thing that will prevent it form going further north is the headfake.
Here's the flip side to the coin. Seldom, does it ever happen that the 23.6 or 76.4% levels of the YS&R's are broken where the continuation is not complete. Also, the top of the weekly cloud has not been hit, even though it is dipping. Those two anomallies would be realized if this is the end for cable. This whole scenario could also be leading up to an even further crescendo-like breakout.
The swissy needs a daily close above 1.0511, which is the TK combo. Provided that is not a headfake, it could have all the needed thrust to send it back to my original projectile. Of my 5 trades posted last week, it is my one bright spot, as it is <> +100 pips. One thing is for sure. A few weeks from now, I will be posting about closed trades that will total in the 1000's of pips, which is the reason for my patience and my high risk tolerance.
Also, the USD/JPY is not finished dropping, so, through all this, keep your eye also on the yen crosses. There just isn't enough room on my platform for all these opportunities.

 

[Metals trader]

Swissy was the mover today 4x. extended on the 4hr chart so i took a short at 1.6718

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Swissy was the mover today 4x. extended on the 4hr chart so i took a short at 1.6718

can you show a chart please,with Kase indicators,thanks

 

[4xpipcounter]

I've attached a 1-hour chart, which is showing it still has steam to hit the cluster event at 1.6744-48. In my opinion, it will only be a bounce, as the daily, weekly, and monthly are all showing strong signs of a continued move UP with some teeth. I believe previous R's are ready to get hammered.
This scenario would also seem to indicate that the 1.0930 area for the Swiss will be broken.

Swissy was the mover today 4x. extended on the 4hr chart so i took a short at 1.6718

 

[4xpipcounter]

Hello Lord F, before I knew of your post, I might have answered your question in the previous post.

can you show a chart please,with Kase indicators,thanks

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Hello Lord F, before I knew of your post, I might have answered your question in the previous post.

thanks, but I was hoping metal trader would show his chart. I have a free trial on Kase software and just wanted to see his set up

 

[Metals trader]

thanks 4x for that analysis about the 6744 level;, i am short from there. i agree about impulse move up also so have to be careful. cheers.

 

[4xpipcounter]

You're welcome.
BTW, it's on the radar. The DOWN has begun for cable, and even more so, the UP for Swissy. I mentioned in naother post how we were needing a strong bounce after the spike under the weekly cloud. We got it, and in addition the forceful move above the TK combo. Also, because of the longer term outlook for the GBP/CHF, it is also implied that we could see Swissy move beyond the 1.0930 R area.
BTW, as per Lord F's request, I am interested in seeing a post of your KASE software. I've never seen it before. Informationally, it will abet my curiosity.

thanks 4x for that analysis about the 6744 level;, i am short from there. i agree about impulse move up also so have to be careful. cheers.