Some of my trades, forecasts

[JahDave]

Re: EUR/USD trade

Jeremy, I have 1.3510 on my LT radar, as it is the monthly tenken, with a possibility of it hitting 1.3956, which is the kijun. For now, there should be quite a decent pullback of 470+ points, so I'm being patient with my short, when this is over, then I'll consider a long.

That's exactly my sentiment Paul. I think the Euro is overdue for a substantial pullback, but if you look at my charts from even 5 or 6 weeks ago you will see that the 1.35 area is my most probable target, but today I'm short and will probably stay that way for a week or more.

 

[wirraltraders]

Re: EUR/USD trade

470 ? Wow Ive got support showing at 13000 and 12930 - but at the moment its going back up!

Paul I thought you were off on your hols? Wish I was....

 

[wirraltraders]

Re: EUR/USD trade

That's exactly my sentiment Paul. I think the Euro is overdue for a substantial pullback, but if you look at my charts from even 5 or 6 weeks ago you will see that the 1.35 area is my most probable target, but today I'm short and will probably stay that way for a week or more.

Problem is even if you are right, the USD is so weak. Its debt mountain/GDP ratio is comparable to Greece - but no-one dares to talk about it. The Euro Bund index is also correlated way above the USDX as well. At the moment its difficult to see where the USD pairs will stop ...

 

[4xpipcounter]

One look at the performance of the GBP/CHF shows how it is possible to be a better forecaster than a trader. The call was amde perfectly concerning it, yet, I bailed embarassingly early on it. But then, after my 1st losiong week in almost 3 years, maybe I'm more tentative then I care to admit. Still, things are going well this week.

 

[wirraltraders]

One look at the performance of the GBP/CHF shows how it is possible to be a better forecaster than a trader. The call was amde perfectly concerning it, yet, I bailed embarassingly early on it. But then, after my 1st losiong week in almost 3 years, maybe I'm more tentative then I care to admit. Still, things are going well this week.

Listen if thats the worse it gets ...

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Usd/chf

EUR/CHF was very mild last year. Relative to my S&R's a huge breakout was due this year. It was an extreme rarity when my YS3 was hit in February, but that is the nature of things. It was due for a reversal after back-to-back compositve bear years. That is what we see going on right now. It is my belief that this months low at 1.3070 will hold, and we should be in for a multi-year UP.
Mathematically, the EUR/CHF has been moving up of late because the EUR/USD has been risingfaster then the USD/CHF has been dropping. After all, EUR/USD * USD/CHF = EUR/CHF.
As I mentioned before, there is a strong possiblity of another break south for the USD/CHF, because of the implications on the monthly chart, however, not yet confirmed.
Sorry, Jeremy, I pay no attention to what is going on with the banks and the fundamental-related stuff.

It is approaching Jan lows

It has been rising on reports that the Swiss National Bank is dumping EURCHF, bailing out of its money-losing interventions, in which it bought EURCHF over past 18 months. However the dollar is so weak - you never know - it might break downwards again...

 

[JahDave]

Re: EUR/USD trade

Problem is even if you are right, the USD is so weak. Its debt mountain/GDP ratio is comparable to Greece - but no-one dares to talk about it. The Euro Bund index is also correlated way above the USDX as well. At the moment its difficult to see where the USD pairs will stop ...

From an Elliott Wave perspective I have been watching the Dollar index. It already completed wave one up and it has met the technical requirements for wave 2 to be completed, IMO that means any time now the U.S. Stock market will start heading down and the dollar will start gaining strength across the board for a wave 3 up.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Thanks, Dave. I was wondering if that was what you were looking at, but not being complicit to candle formations, I didn't want to venture a guess. You might as well let someone else take the platform who knows what he is talking about.

It is the two candles that have the same high, or in this case within 1 pip of each other.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: EUR/USD trade

I got a hidden wild card on that which is called +2 sigma. Normally, I would have pulled my trade when I had gotten a nominal gain. In this case, I didn't mind the scenic route in lieu of what I am expecting at the end of the trip.
It pulled back up because of bouncing off my WR2 at 1.3058.
Just a related story. When the swiss began its plunge down, someone expressed doubt(before I got on this site) in the fact the USD/CHF was on my radar at 1.0930, because of the pullback from the low 1.1400's to close to 1.1700. All I was doing was setting up for a more magnificent splashdown. On a smaller scale, it is my belief that is what we see on the hourly with the euro right now.

470 ? Wow Ive got support showing at 13000 and 12930 - but at the moment its going back up!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: EUR/USD trade

As usual, we agree. No surprise there.
This will be interesting as things unfold. Jeremy is also a good trader, and he says supports are at 1.3000 and 1.2930. My view is supports are meant to be broken and to accelerate the price action.
About 5 years ago, I used to get a kick out of it when I would see "The Great One", Max McKegg and Action Forex conflict with thier forecasts. They're hardly ever wrong. All due respect to Action Forex, but "The Great One" usually was right.
Yeah, yeah. I won't shut up now, but this is a perspective. About once a month, I have a day when I get as many pips in one day as a lot of people would like to get in one month (Sorry, not bragging, just getting somewhere.). As an example, last month's 3,544 pips in 2 days on 17 trades (No such streaks this month, btw.). Max has those kinds of days at least once a week. He only trades 5 pairs, and he gets 500 overnight pips commonly. He's so good, he's scary.
One of the most mindblowing things I ever saw was when he went exactly contrarain directions on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. He gains about 100 pips each on both of those pairs. That day I traded the GBP/USD only, and took it on the chin for about 75 pips.
I wrote to him and asked, "Did you know you are going distinctively contrarian directions?" He answered my e-mail in 3 words, "That's my forecast."

That's exactly my sentiment Paul. I think the Euro is overdue for a substantial pullback, but if you look at my charts from even 5 or 6 weeks ago you will see that the 1.35 area is my most probable target, but today I'm short and will probably stay that way for a week or more.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: EUR/USD trade

"Hols"? Holiday?
If that is the case, I leave Aug. 6th. It will be sometime shortly after NFP. That's my routine every 1st Friday of August. I'll be back for the NY open on Aug. 13th....if I feel like it. If too much vacation is still in the bones, then I'll check back in, for sure, on Aug. 16th.
To coin a lyrical phrase from Christmas time, the first week of August is, "The most wonderful time of the year."

Paul I thought you were off on your hols? Wish I was....

 

[JahDave]

Re: EUR/USD trade

I got a hidden wild card on that which is called +2 sigma. Normally, I would have pulled my trade when I had gotten a nominal gain. In this case, I didn't mind the scenic route in lieu of what I am expecting at the end of the trip.
It pulled back up because of bouncing off my WR2 at 1.3058.
Just a related story. When the swiss began its plunge down, someone expressed doubt(before I got on this site) in the fact the USD/CHF was on my radar at 1.0930, because of the pullback from the low 1.1400's to close to 1.1700. All I was doing was setting up for a more magnificent splashdown. On a smaller scale, it is my belief that is what we see on the hourly with the euro right now.

So does that put you in the 95% probability range of being correct, and if so could you share how you arrived at that?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: EUR/USD trade

This is my overriding confidence. My charts give me 20/20 vision, so it is not hard for me to see. I'm not trying to undermine your point of view, but the only thing I consider is what my charts tell me.

Problem is even if you are right, the USD is so weak. Its debt mountain/GDP ratio is comparable to Greece - but no-one dares to talk about it. The Euro Bund index is also correlated way above the USDX as well. At the moment its difficult to see where the USD pairs will stop ...

 

[4xpipcounter]

I know, but that is the part of this business that will humble you....and really, there is nothing wrong with being humbled. As humans, we don't like eating humble pie.
This is why I try to always curb an extreme confidence in my methodology with a very sullen humility. I don't want to get over-confident, or arrogant.

Listen if thats the worse it gets ...

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: EUR/USD trade

Just like the ichimoku cloud, the sigma range is dynamic. As of now, I have 1.2648 on the radar, but the LT downtrend is over with, wihch means there is now a shift in the overall scope of things. The deviations are subject to being changed, depended on how long it takes the pair to get the message, it is supposed to be reversing. My friend, James Maggio, (Not selling anything.) at Forex TRM is a mathematician, and the only thing he uses to trade with are the TRM bands. His product is the only paid product on the market I've endorsed.
Standard deviations cannot keep up with a move such as the one that was made today, therefore, if 1,2977 marked a +2 sigma crossover, and we are at 1.3100 right now, then that suggests, we are much further up than the standard +2 sigma, which means, there is a longer gap to get to the point of neutraility, realtive to the sigma bands.
I have never (Big 5-letter word, here.) seen a pair hit +2 sigma, and not hit the point os neutrailty.
BTW, I hope you're reading this far, because I messed up with regards to the sigma bands. I am still looking for the 400-point move south. The sigma bands work similarly to my S&R's as they measure the range and cycliality of a trend. The bands will hardly ever change. In the case of the EUR/USD, that respresents 136 points, which means from +2 sigma, it would be 272 points to neutrality and 408 to -1 sigma. With regards to the sigma a 272+ move is on the radar, but is likely for a 408-move.
In addition, the top of the daily cloud could be support, which is currently 1.2618 aqnd dropping.

So does that put you in the 95% probability range of being correct, and if so could you share how you arrived at that?

 

[JahDave]

Thanks for the explanation. I knew what sigma was from a scientific point, but I have not heard of your friends sigma bands. Very interesting stuff.
So let's review the Euro.... Fibo resistance; completed EW count; +2 sigma; Paul's S&R's; Ichimoku reversal levels; almost every other indicator showing overbought. That about sums it up for me.....LOL

 

[4xpipcounter]

LOL, this thing would be in the bag if I could get a hold of Max.
I just now checked with Action Forex, and here is their view, "In the bigger picture, while a medium term bottom is in place at 1.1875, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.1875 is viewed as a correction, or part of consolidation in the larger decline only. Whole fall from 1.6039 is still expected to continue to 1.1639 support and below. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, decisive break of mentioned 1.3105/3123 cluster level will argue that whole fall from 1.6039 might have finished totally at 1.1875 and will turn focus to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3442) for more evidence."
In other words, they are saying that cluster event should hold for awhile.

Thanks for the explanation. I knew what sigma was from a scientific point, but I have not heard of your friends sigma bands. Very interesting stuff.
So let's review the Euro.... Fibo resistance; completed EW count; +2 sigma; Paul's S&R's; Ichimoku reversal levels; almost every other indicator showing overbought. That about sums it up for me.....LOL

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/usd

After considering the aforementioned obviations with the euro, I had to take another look at what opportunities cable might yield. The 1.5584 mark, up to this point, has to be viewed that is it holding. We did have a strong move past it yesterday, but the day finished under that point. Today, looks similar. I am now looking for a strong move towards 1.5005, which is the YS1 and the weekly tenken, that has not yet crossed over the kijun, which adds fuel to the fire.

If the circa area of 1.5445 does not hold, then it will be on to 1.5584, which is the 50% mark of YS1--YP. Another level that is a possiblity before anything of any major value happens in the form of a reversal, is 1.5723. That should be containment, if not one of the aforementioned levels. If we amke it to 1.5584, then look for an extremely sharp reversal, or put 1.5723 on your radar.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Usd/chf

Okay, I think I got it. It does not appear on this initial trip we are going to get a break through the bottom of the weekly cloud. What this means is that at the very least, we are in for a huge correction. The weekly stochastics is bearing a heavy OS load, momentum has waned, and so we should be headed back to the top of the cloud at 1.0930. The TK combo could also be hit at 1.1062.

We are close to the bottom of the weekly cloud and with momentum diminishing, it could be the sign of a strong reversal. The bottom of the cloud has been raised from the original 1.0317 to 1.0350. It will be 1.0430. Therefore, the conclusion is we are revving up for a strong reversal or for support to be broken and a move to circa 1.0150.
For now, things still look very bearish for the pair, as R on the hourly ay 1.0483 appears to be containment for any correction. The developmental process for the reversal could still take some time. Price is still outrunning the indicators when it moves south, and the indicators outrun price when it moves north.
Another thing that still makes me apprehensive about getting too giddy about jump on the backs of the bulls are the highly bearish implications on the monthly.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Aud/usd

After the recent failure to establish a new high, and with the candles flying at a bit of a too high elevation above the cloud, this pair is due for a correction. Up to this point, the YP has been acting as support at .8974. This trip DOWN, that should be broken as we head back to the .8682 level, which is now a cluster event. That area will be strong support, but if broken, then with ease we are on to .8501.