Some of my trades, forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Yen crosses

The USD/JPY does not have the same dollar strength implications over the next several days that the other majors have. I am looking for strong reversals on the part of all yen crosses over the next few days--EURJPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY. NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Djia

The Dow Jones is in for an ugly drop over the next coming days. Immediate support is the weekly tenken at 10,079.30, then it is the monthly kijun at 9,554, and then it should be on to the 8,000's.

Just for the record, I am long the USD against the euro, cable, aussie, kiwi, and the loonie. I haven't had my huge day yet this month. Tucker wants really nice dog treats.

 

[JahDave]

Re: Djia

The Dow Jones is in for an ugly drop over the next coming days. Immediate support is the weekly tenken at 10,079.30, then it is the monthly kijun at 9,554, and then it should be on to the 8,000's.

Just for the record, I am long the USD against the euro, cable, aussie, kiwi, and the loonie. I haven't had my huge day yet this month. Tucker wants really nice dog treats.

I am with you on that. One more thing.....I looked at the EUR/AUD and a very probable target for it is 1.8354, so I'm just going to sit on my long for a while.

 

[JahDave]

My second highest probability target is 1.6621, which will most likely be the pullback for wave 4, so I may bail out there and get back in later for wave 5.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Djia

I went long the EUR/AUD about a month ago. My target is less than yours, but still lots of pips at 1.7550. That is one of those 17 trades I put up at one time, so the profits are minscule.

I am with you on that. One more thing.....I looked at the EUR/AUD and a very probable target for it is 1.8354, so I'm just going to sit on my long for a while.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I won't get out that early, but I am still subject to getting out earlier than my stated target.

My second highest probability target is 1.6621, which will most likely be the pullback for wave 4, so I may bail out there and get back in later for wave 5.

 

[JahDave]

Re: Djia

I went long the EUR/AUD about a month ago. My target is less than yours, but still lots of pips at 1.7550. That is one of those 17 trades I put up at one time, so the profits are minscule.

Now would be a good time in my opinion to add to your position so it's no longer miniscule.....LOL

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Djia

You beat me to the punch, Dave. I added an extra position to the AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and all the yen crosses--aussie, kiwi, loonie, swiss. I never did open positions on cable and the euro. Oh yeah, it's no longer miniscule. I have those positions up to .4 % margining. Just to give you an idea, everyone of my positions have to back up on my 4,000 pips each before I could bankrupt that account. Actually, I just opened it to prrove a point.
Of course the ones I got to watch are the ones on my main account opened today.

Now would be a good time in my opinion to add to your position so it's no longer miniscule.....LOL

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Yen crosses

Did anyone check the size on these daily candles? Those candles will get bigger before the day is out.
BTW, today was the "little kid in the candy store" scenario. There was too many opportunities to choose from.
My 6 positions are up, so far around have a net of around +225, as of this writing. I mentioned in another post (forgot where) that the trends would be established during London and followed through in NY.
I do get a chuckle when some people talk about net gains of 20% per year. I'm not taking my bows, but I have one of these kinds of days about once a month. So far, the account is up 22.5%, and that is overnight.
This not just hindisght, but I did mess up on the loonie. I was not thinking in going long on it. Just to cut to the chase, I just kind of blindly jumped in.

The USD/JPY does not have the same dollar strength implications over the next several days that the other majors have. I am looking for strong reversals on the part of all yen crosses over the next few days--EURJPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY. NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Usd/cad

Rather than chase the loonie, I decided to take it out as soon as it rebounded a tad and hit the bottom of the hourly cloud at 1.0324 for -32 pips. It's in for another tumble.

The Swiss is my only losing trade left on the boards, but I have no problem with it. It's just a matter of time.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/gbp

I just took the pair out at .8309 for +101 pips. That was the trade entered early last week. It will probably drop some more, but I'm satisfied, and it does free up some margin for the other existing trades.

 

[Denman]

Hello '4xpips', as I have said before I am a complete 'newbie' to trading but am finding your posts really helpful. Can you recommend any good literture for beginners? Also do you have any thoughts on GBP/USD and EUR/USD?
Thanx always and kind regards,
David

 

[4xpipcounter]

David, both cable and the euro are getting ready for a strong reversal. I actually thoguht that would have begun on Friday, but all we got was a headfake on the part of the euro. They are 2 of my 5 positions I currently have up.
Literature? Why don't you start at Action Forex where they have all kinds of excellent free material. Their forecasters are also excellent, and they have 3 different methodologies to view the markets, which all, basically, produce the same results.
Also, on this site, there is a thread called "3 Ducks" by Captain Currency. He has a free e-book on his complete methodology that he will send to you upon request.
Please, stay away from the places that have outrageous claims like, "Make 1,000% in 2 months", or "Make $1 million in 3 months. Also stay away from automated EA's. All they do is cater to laziness, and produce nothing. In order to develop a tradeable methodology, it will take time and work.
Keep in mind the free indicators that you get from the various brokers are about all you will need. There is only one paid service I can think of that is worth it. I don't make a dime for recommending it, but it is ForexTRM. The sigma bands and cirvilinear envelopes work when used correctly.
There are also a few good books, but that should be enough to send you on your way, for now.
Always feel free to make further posts with queries and comments.

Hello '4xpips', as I have said before I am a complete 'newbie' to trading but am finding your posts really helpful. Can you recommend any good literture for beginners? Also do you have any thoughts on GBP/USD and EUR/USD?
Thanx always and kind regards,
David

 

[Krewsey]

Hi 4xpipcounter.

This is an awesome thread and some great info on some educational sources in your previous entry. I have never used the Ichimoku Cloud and have been experimenting with it since joining your thread.

I wanted to know if you alter the parameters at all. I've just checked two different charting packages and the default settings are different on each program.

Also are you looking for further confirmation on the USDCHF to go long. I took a shot on it today but now think I should have waited for further confirmation. Had I read your previous entry on the Swissy, I would have held off. I reasoned that Friday failed to close below the double bottom formed on the daily, the double bottom is at 1.040 which has been Support and Resistance in the past, the weekly stochs are oversold on the weekly and Fridays candle produced a classic Doji. I entered once I saw a 1,2,3 pattern forming on the 4 hourly but so far it has not confirmed. If I get a chance, I'll move my stop to break even ASAP. Thanks again for a great thread.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Krewsey, thanks for your kind words. After 3 of the 5 calls going awry, up to this point, I almost feel unworthy.
The standard settings for the ichimoku cloud, to the best of my knowledge, has always been 9,26,52, which is what I use.
Look for resistance to be seen at 1.0500 and 1.0527 for the USD/CHF, which are the respective tenken and kijun. If the day closes above 1.0527, then it could be clear sailing ahead to 1.0749. I would expect, initially, strong R to be seen at 1.0527 as that is also my MR1 (1.0533, actually.). The pair did find support at the bottom of the cloud.
As far as confirmation is concerned, hitting the bottom of the cloud was it. I will wait to see what the reaction is at 1.0527 to decide on the next move. Once the circa area of 1.0533 has been hit, it is expected a minimum bounce to 1.0473. If the uptrend has begun, then we will get a continuation. 1.0473 is 50% of MR1--MP.

Hi 4xpipcounter.

This is an awesome thread and some great info on some educational sources in your previous entry. I have never used the Ichimoku Cloud and have been experimenting with it since joining your thread.

I wanted to know if you alter the parameters at all. I've just checked two different charting packages and the default settings are different on each program.

Also are you looking for further confirmation on the USDCHF to go long. I took a shot on it today but now think I should have waited for further confirmation. Had I read your previous entry on the Swissy, I would have held off. I reasoned that Friday failed to close below the double bottom formed on the daily, the double bottom is at 1.040 which has been Support and Resistance in the past, the weekly stochs are oversold on the weekly and Fridays candle produced a classic Doji. I entered once I saw a 1,2,3 pattern forming on the 4 hourly but so far it has not confirmed. If I get a chance, I'll move my stop to break even ASAP. Thanks again for a great thread.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gold weeklies

Here sare your weeklies, Hari:
1220.71
1202.90
1192.51
1171.75
1161.27
1143.54

After the weekly tenken was hit last week at 1153.16, it may have been the support that is needed to thrust gold back in the UP, but it is still not confirmed.

 

[guptabhk]

Re: Gold weeklies

HI PAUL
wow ! as you said gold got supported at 1155. let us hope the momentum will pick up to confirm the upside, I think on its way there is a bottom of the daily cloud/weekly tenkan confluence at 1210 which is to be watched for next action

regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gold weeklies

There was a strong upmove on the previous 2 hourly candles
That weekly tenken did hold up prefectly. That was also the area of the 61.8% of the WR1--WP.

HI PAUL
wow ! as you said gold got supported at 1155. let us hope the momentum will pick up to confirm the upside, I think on its way there is a bottom of the daily cloud/weekly tenkan confluence at 1210 which is to be watched for next action

regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

The majors update

It's getting a little befuddling, but the only thing to do at this point is watch for the next R's (relative to the USD) of consequence to determine the reversals, so here goes. BTW, make sure the seatbelt is good and tight, because the reversals are going to be violent. There are no promises or guarantees in the world of forex, so just take my word for it:

EUR/USD--1.3188 is the WR2. Look for a spike beyond it, and then the reversal. The reversal will bring a minimum 700 pips from its peak.

USD/JPY--There could be a recovery back to the MR1 at 87.25, and then towards 84.63, the MS2. Seeing that the USD/JPY is sitll in a downtrend, this means there are some explosive implications for the yen crosses. Another thing to keep in mind with the USD/JPY is that with the excpetion of 2006 and 2008, the USD/JPY has had a bear candle formation every August since 1996.

GBP/USD--This pair is waiting to blow completely apart. It is over bouught on everything from the hourly to the weekly. 1.5904 is the WR2, 1.5922 is the MR1. There might even be a slght spike beyond the latter. There is plenty of room to allow 800 pips from the peak.

USD/CHF--Today's violent intra reversal was spurned by the WR1, of all things, at 1.0479. The WS1 is 1.0327, and the MS1 is 1.0298. Look for those areas to be containment, adn then another strong move UP. This lamost has to be the case, as price is officially below the weekly cloud, therefore, in order for it to be deemed as a spike only, the strong reversal, before the week is out is needed. A move back to at least the top of the cloud at 1.0930 is possible.

AUD/USD--It could take out the WR2 at .9152, on its way to the WR3 at .9228, before we see the reversal. This one is ripe and ready for a 1,200 pips drop from the peak.

NZD/USD--.7480 is the WR2. For as slow as this pair has a tendency to move, it looks like a beast. The bottom od the weekly cloud is rising, but the monthly kijun is still on the radar at .6325.

The euro, cable, and aussie, with regards to the daily charts, are in what I call ear-popping territory. They are flying way too high above the cloud. The view might be great on top of everything, but the altitude is too high for proper price navigation. Add to that some extreme OB conditions, yearly trends being overextended within the respective ranges, sigma readings being off the charts. This type of high-altitude flying cannot be supported much longer. That part of the narrative maybe metaphorical, but is used to make the point of the certainty I feel about the reversals.

 

[JahDave]

Hey Paul,
All I can say is that I am very surprised myself and the reversal should be spectacular.