Seeking consistency

[Leia]

Re: eur gpb short, Daily set up and 4H trigger

I have an order short placed @ 86.00 with a 50 pips risk, targeting the previous Daily low at 83.00

The order has opened and I have now (after 1 hour) moved my stop to a break-even position, incase the 4H 20ema acts as support for a new up move

 

[Leia]

Re: eur gpb short, Daily set up and 4H trigger

The order has opened and I have now (after 1 hour) moved my stop to a break-even position, incase the 4H 20ema acts as support for a new up move

Stop hit for a breakeven trade

 

[Leia]

aud cad potential long set up

daily and 4 Hour trends are up
price has retraced to the bottom of its ascending 4H channel and previous support level
looking for a trigger to get me into a long position
hourly 20ema just below may offer additional support

 

[Leia]

eur usd - london open

first trade of the year
I used the '3 ducks' as a filter to identify candidates for trading the London open session
this returned 5 pairs
eur usd, usd cad, eur gpb, eur jpy and aud jpy

the eur usd 1H chart printed a hammer shape candle at 7am indicating rejection of lower levels at between 50% and 61.8% retracement of the prev 1H up swing, which I decided to trade

The trade triggered quite quickly and immediately retraced to over 61.8% of the prev 5m up swing, confirming that I should have awaited the retrace to get a better entry and risk reward ratio by using the 15m hammer that had been printed previously (ie before the 1H one). The reason I didn't is because the London open can produce 'breakout' moves

Any way, fortunately nothing lost as having seen a 5m break above and then a 5m low above my entry level I have moved my stop to a break even position, so I can't lose now

the 1H, 5m and 15m charts are attached

 

[Leia]

Re: eur usd - london open

Whilst posting this my stop was hit, so out for 0
whilst this is a disappointment, I am pleased that I have recorded this trade with the reason I chose to take it and how I could have done better, with the benefit of hindsight

 

[Leia]

Re: aud cad potential long set up

the last 4H candle has offered a hammer, sitting exactly between the fib retracement areas I have marked with dashed blue lines
unfortunately we have a break and close below the Daily 20ema, price has broken out of the ascending channel and the 4H trend (moving averages) has crossed to the short side
I have placed an order anyway, as the ma could cross back

trigger 4H candle on attached

 

[Leia]

Re: eur usd - london open

Whilst posting this my stop was hit, so out for 0

ironically, my target was actually achieved, if I had left this trade to run for longer, with the stop at the original location
However, this is supposed to be a short term trading strategy, so I am happy that I acted as I did

 

[Leia]

Wednesday Jan 5th

My filter returned 7 pairs this morning, so I have reduced this to four based on the largest potential gain:
cable Long c 1.55 25 / 50
eurchf Long c 94.65 / 55
gbp jpy Long c 127.35 / 00
eur jpy short c 82.45 / 60
looking for potential entries on 5m & 15m

 

[Leia]

Re: Wednesday Jan 5th

looking for potential entries on 5m & 15m

orders entered long
cable at 1.55 60 (20 pip stop)
gbp jpy 127.70 (30 pip stop)
both higher than the reaction levels I stated earleir due to the speed of the up moves after the initial falls at 7am

 

[Leia]

Re: Wednesday Jan 5th

orders entered long
cable at 1.55 60 (20 pip stop)
gbp jpy 127.70 (30 pip stop)

Cable order removed as price didn't retrace to my entry level (unlike yesterday!)
GJ opened at 127.75 and stop moved to break-even, as a 5m bar has closed above my entry

here are my entry set up (1H Inside Bar break up) and stop criteria (pink horizontal line, red vertical line indicates entry point, thus maximum draw down was -14 against 35 stop, the green horizontal line is at 1.26 10 indicating the level of a 1:1 risk reward trade, ie +35

 

[Leia]

Re: Wednesday Jan 5th

GJ opened at 127.75 and stop moved to break-even, as a 5m bar has closed above my entry

My stop at break even has been hit, having not quite hit my first target level (Risk/Reward 1:1) at 1.27 10

The discipline of recording my pre, during and post trade thoughts is already proving beneficial, with just two days results I am happy that my 'filter' criteria appears to be sound (which pairs to watch and which direction to be trading them)

I need to 'get in' at better levels, a difficult one as yesterday I entered too early and could have obtained a better entry by waiting and today I was too late (on the cable trade) and missed the move!

Lets see what happens tomorrow, all in all it may be an abnormal week, as its Non Farm Payrolls on Friday

 

[Leia]

Re: aud cad potential long set up

I have placed an order anyway, as the ma could cross back

stop hit for -40 pips

 

[Leia]

Re: Wednesday Jan 5th

My stop at break even has been hit, having not quite hit my first target level (Risk/Reward 1:1) at 1.27 10

and now its sailed through my 'ultimate' target +85!

 

[Leia]

Thurs 6th Jan

My filter has not been helpful this morning, returning 10 out of my 12 pairs as potential trades
I have therefore sub filtered them by removing those that made very large moves yesterday but only modest retracements overnight
This leaves
euro short
ozzie short
cad short
eur jpy long
all have the potential for 50+ pips moves, if I pick good entry points

 

[Leia]

Re: Thurs 6th Jan eur usd

all have the potential for 50+ pips moves, if I pick good entry points

The 1H chart shows the asian range, the top of which is where I have my stop, as this would mean the pair will pull back more of yesterdays large down wave than has been the case overnight. I am anticipating a continuation of the down move (based on the higher timeframe 4H & 1H moving averages)

I identified 1.31 50 as an entry level as it was a 5M SW Hi, however it was breeched, so I thought I would get a higher entry. The 5M candle is doji like, so I have taken this as my entry trigger (it roughly peaked at 61.8% of the last significant 5M down wave retracement)

 

[Leia]

Re: Thurs 6th Jan eur usd

The 5M candle is doji like, so I have taken this as my entry trigger (it roughly peaked at 61.8% of the last significant 5M down wave retracement)

I have now moved my stop to breakeven, having had a 5M bar print a high lower than my entry level. Price has also moved more than twice my stop in my favour, which would also trigger me to protect the trade. I shall leave it now to either stop out for 0, as has been the case all week, or meet its 100 pip target

 

[Leia]

Fri 7 Jan eur jpy

Again this morning my filter was not helpful, providing 10 pairs to watch out of the 12 I consider
I therefore reduced these to 4 based on my perception of those with the potential for the largest move
euro short 1.30 20 / 50
swissie long 96 40 / 10
eur jpy short 84.30 / 60
gbp jpy long 128.60 / 40

The first one to provide an entry was eur jpy. The 1H screen shot below shows the overnight range (green lines 108.45 --> 108.10) a move above the high indicates a breakout of this range to the upside and thus invalidates my filter direction
A shooting star type 5m candle provided an entry at 108.45, I have given it a 10 pip stop and am targeting a modest 35 pip target at the bottom of the range 108.10
The trade was opened 2 5m candles later (red line)
I am not looking to get more today, because it is Non Farm Payrolls this pm

 

[Leia]

usd aud 4 hour short

My daily and 4H trends are short
A massive shooting star candle has been printed, but not at a great level
I am therefore betting on a 'double top' at around the high of the shooting star candle
As its not a set up per my rules, I have picked an entry and stop level to get me in if my theory is right, and quickly get me out for a very small (20pip) loss if I am wrong
It will be interesting to see, it triggered open at the London open, although I placed the order yesterday afternoon
heres the 4H chart

 

[Leia]

Re: Fri 7 Jan eur jpy

eur jpy short 84.30 / 60
gbp jpy long 128.60 / 40

My stop has now been hit for -10, the best possible result from this trade would have been +6 pips
The trade of the morning was on my list, a lovely entry on gpb jpy @ 128.65 to 128.80 would have soon been to break even and presently is 129.05 (+40 to +15 depending on entry level), but not the one I took

Never mind 4 trades this week (i didnt trade Monday as the UK was on holidays)
1 loss - 10
2 break evens - 0 (both worked out if I hadn't moved my stop to be)
1 win +100
over all for the week + 90
Not a bad result (my target is 125, on a 5 day week, so I am only just behind considering this was a 4 dayer)

 

[Leia]

Re: usd aud 4 hour short

As its not a set up per my rules

So why did I place the trade then?
Stop hit with virtually no move into a profitable situation
there is a lesson here, which I though I had learned, clearly not!