S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[tim3]

Hi guys

First trading day in July 69% chance of closing positive second most bullish day in July (from cobra site below a useful one to bookmark)

Seasonality by Month and Day | Cobra's Market View

 

[robster970]

View attachment 139800

Slightly different perspective. All the bids are in, and the money is staying in overnight. Probably the only way to go....! Just a thought.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact........

 

[kimo'sabby]

Hi guys

First trading day in July 69% chance of closing positive second most bullish day in July (from cobra site below a useful one to bookmark)

Seasonality by Month and Day | Cobra's Market View

Another way of looking at it could be in a cyclical nature, whereby Fridays action would be seen as the mark-up phase. This of course takes the bigger TFs into consideration. The buy-sell cycle is as follows.

1. Mark-up
2. Distribution
3. Mark-down
4. Accumulation

The mark-up is generally viewed as the beginning of a bullish period.

 

[kimo'sabby]

Buy the rumour, sell the fact........

Quite possibly.

 

[kimo'sabby]

First trade, the new improved ES strat, the one tick scalp....p*ss*d(i may add). The first order is cancelled by the way, hope it's all clear and straightforward.

I'll do some more tomoz....i hope

 

[kimo'sabby]

The initial sell order at 1355.00 (cancelled) was in anticipation of the above PA.

 

[DionysusToast]

Back again. It's 9pm EST now - or 9am where I am.

Too early for pre-market analysis but catching up off my 'vacation', I'm having a review of where we stand.

Looks like we have been balanced around the areas with the yellow box above. Shorts above, longs below.

Not much of a change, really. We seem to be finding acceptance higher up but basically it's still sideways.

No change of opinion. Top of the range and so expecting us to find sellers at these prices.

Note that we have some fairly major LVNs above, prices that have seen little trading and have therefore been rejected by the market:

I'm looking to the downside. If we look at the prior time we were up here recently, there wasn't a lot of volume traded (white ellipse) compared to the 1300-1325 area (yellow ellipse).

As such, I don't think this is the break. I think if we came down to the 1325 area and then moved upside again, we'd be set for another peek @ the 1400's.

Pre-market analysis later...

 

[SuddenDeath]

morning anyone noticed that the SP500 closed above its 100dma

 

[robster970]

morning anyone noticed that the SP500 closed above its 100dma

No - most of us here are pretty short term traders so daily MA's don't figure - well at least not for me.

Welcome btw - feel free to post up trades, chat or lulz.

 

[SuddenDeath]

thanks

 

[SuddenDeath]

UK manufacturing PMI in 10mins, last months was a shocker

 

[Pat494]

G' morning all

12:19am AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 47.2 42.4
12:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index -1 -4 -4
12:50am JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 8 6 5
1:30am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.2% 0.0%
3:30am CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 48.2 48.1
7:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y -10.5% -10.2%
8:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y 6.2% 2.1% 0.2%
8:30am CHF SVME PMI 48.1 44.8 45.4
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 44.6 44.6 44.8
9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 45.1 44.8 44.8
9:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.1% 10.4% 10.2%
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 48.6 46.6 45.9
10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 11.1% 11.0%
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
2:00pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 53.0 52.9
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.1 53.5
3:00pm USD Construction Spending m/m 0.3% 0.3%
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 45.8 47.5
6:15pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks

 

[DionysusToast]

2nd July - Pre Market

Asia ex-Japan up, Japan down, Europe up.

Moved up on Friday, out of the top of the range. Didn't look like a serious pop up on Friday/today because the volume up here is low.
A couple of significant LVNS above – 1363.5, 1369.75.
News @10am might cause the market to track sideways until 10am.

Holiday week may see lack of interest. Volume overnight was average.

Scenarios
- Immediate sell-off on the open for a trend day down. Jump on board.
- Move up to LVNs for a short @ 1363.50/1369.75. Even better if the pop up is off the 10am news.
- Down move could end @ the ONL @1349.50 for a potential long later in the day. Would not expect this to be a sustained move to a higher high though. Note that this is also just above Fridays VPOC at 1348.
- Overnight LVN @ 1356.75 could cause a small reversal but would not rely on that being a sustained move.

 

[robster970]

I've got ONL at 52.50 - it's been pinged twice - once in asian session once in european session.

nvpoc at 48 though. currently tracking down. expecting downside test first. who knows afterwards!!

welcome back dt

 

[dpinpon]

1378

 

[robster970]

1378

Wrong thread but I'll add it

 

[DionysusToast]

lol...

Cheeky little move there. Market stuck in a range, got to the top of the range for the 3rd time, then started to make a move down & someone took a swipe @ the sellers. You could see it @ 1359 at about 9:43 for those with a penchant for replay.

I saw it happening but didn't jump on long. Not worth it with this range & what I consider to be sellers lurking above.

Lovely little move though. Wish I had the $$$ to do that.

 

[robster970]

think we are going down in 70secs

 

[robster970]

Right, that's me done for today.

 

[Pat494]

Anyone get the drop ?

Very frustrating when the SB won't follow orders - just leaves one hanging !!

Only made 1 point instead of 3