S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[robster970]

@ all. What would be your minimum trade parameters for the ES. I ask this because i can see a definate advantage by doing more round trips, as opposed to waiting for just one set-up per session.

Funny you should say that. I have been happy with shooting for 1 trade per day, hunting for 10-15 ticks per week but I have recently decided that trading more frequently around the kind of set-up I usually look for shouldn't be discounted.

It should be pretty obvious to most regulars on here that I look for short term reversal opportunities in and around the open of the US session. The earlier the turn in the session around one of these opportunities, the increased probability of it being a good call as I tend to rely upon the price discovery/value discovery phase of the beginning of the session which is relatively predictable.

What Dinos alerted me to was the fact that this is entirely possible at the beginning of the European session too on ES, although less pronounced.

Finally I have figured out a basic strat for taking trades on trend days too, thus allowing me to possibly recover the loss I would incur by misreading an early turn on an OD/OTD/ORR if it is against the direction of the trend.

So in short, I'm back on SIM for this stuff, will forward test it probably until the end of Q3 and then start to gradually introduce it into the repertoire.

Is that what you meant Kimo?

 

[barjon]

Funny you should say that. I have been happy with shooting for 1 trade per day, hunting for 10-15 ticks per week but I have recently decided that trading more frequently around the kind of set-up I usually look for shouldn't be discounted.

It should be pretty obvious to most regulars on here that I look for short term reversal opportunities in and around the open of the US session. The earlier the turn in the session around one of these opportunities, the increased probability of it being a good call as I tend to rely upon the price discovery/value discovery phase of the beginning of the session which is relatively predictable.

What Dinos alerted me to was the fact that this is entirely possible at the beginning of the European session too on ES, although less pronounced.

Finally I have figured out a basic strat for taking trades on trend days too, thus allowing me to possibly recover the loss I would incur by misreading an early turn on an OD/OTD/ORR if it is against the direction of the trend.

So in short, I'm back on SIM for this stuff, will forward test it probably until the end of Q3 and then start to gradually introduce it into the repertoire.

Is that what you meant Kimo?

Rob

I think the open of the European session would be a bit iffy since Europe is mostly getting to grips with what happened in US after main market closures. Sure, if they don't like it, that may affect S&P a little, but US is king.

There are fairly common times on ftse where it will at least try a reversal and one of those is tied in with US which is 3pm (our time) so it might be worth a look around then.

Another better than average time for US to make a move is straight after ftse close, but that's not necessarily associated with reversal.

Just some thoughts

jon

 

[kimo'sabby]

@Rob. Kind of. By how much would your round trip figure increase?

 

[Pat494]

I wouldn't suggest trading as if you are going to live for ever and ever NOR the other extreme as if it's your last day.

OK somewhere in between then. Like you only got a few years left so better get on with it !

And have you sharpened up your system yet so that it's profitable ? No then better get on with that first off.
Gotta get those 2 - 5+ point moves.
Horizontal is for novices to waste money.
Horizontal is for napping/odd jobs

 

[kimo'sabby]

@All. I'm gonna reduce my trade parameters and do more spins. I'm also going to discontinue my search for the 'session reversal'. Why? Not very efficient, imho. Will get back to you with some meaningful results.

 

[robster970]

......... since Europe is mostly getting to grips with what happened in US after main market closures. Sure, if they don't like it, that may affect S&P a little, but US is king.

I agree - that's why I think there is a trading opportunity there. It is framed by what has happened in the Asian session too. I can see something Jon.

@Rob. Kind of. By how much would your round trip figure increase?

At least double, sometimes treble, probably about 2.5 times. It won't affect my commission structure yet though but what it does is make better use of time for me.

I wouldn't suggest trading as if you are going to live for ever and ever NOR the other extreme as if it's your last day.

OK somewhere in between then. Like you only got a few years left so better get on with it !

And have you sharpened up your system yet so that it's profitable ? No then better get on with that first off.
Gotta get those 2 - 5+ point moves.
Horizontal is for novices to waste money.
Horizontal is for napping/odd jobs

You been on the Brandy this afternoon old boy

 

[kimo'sabby]

@ Rob. Definately a better use of time. More spins means more costs, of course, but cost cutting should not be allowed to hinder or restrict a persons overall view. There has to be a balance.

 

[DionysusToast]

BTW - decided not to get back into trading this week - will start Monday, although it'll probably be a quiet week with July 4th....

 

[kimo'sabby]

@All. I'm gonna reduce my trade parameters and do more spins. I'm also going to discontinue my search for the 'session reversal'. Why? Not very efficient, imho. Will get back to you with some meaningful results.

This is the kind of thing i'll be looking for, and obviously entering trades through the ladder.

 

[robster970]

View attachment 139788

This is the kind of thing i'll be looking for, and obviously entering trades through the ladder.

Aaaaah - that's more like how I tarde. If your doing 10 lots on those longer term trades you could ratchet up to 40 lots or so on those kind of quick moves.

That'll certainly affect your commission structure if your trade frequency goes up with it too.

 

[kimo'sabby]

Aaaaah - that's more like how I tarde. If your doing 10 lots on those longer term trades you could ratchet up to 40 lots or so on those kind of quick moves.

That'll certainly affect your commission structure if your trade frequency goes up with it too.

See, immediately you find something almost identifiable. Look at this smaller sample of the above chart.



See how it looks almost digital, it loses it's analogue look. Also, look at the interaction of prices, you don't see this on the higher TFs. Interesting.

 

[robster970]

See, immediately you find something almost identifiable. Look at this smaller sample of the above chart.

View attachment 139790

See how it looks almost digital, it loses it's analogue look. Also, look at the interaction of prices, you don't see this on the higher TFs. Interesting.

Don't you look at the DOM at all?

 

[kimo'sabby]

Don't you look at the DOM at all?

I do.

 

[robster970]

I do.

Are you going to have a crack at looking at the tick chart & DOM then and going for 4+ tick moves and bailing if it goes a couple of ticks offside? Is this the new thinking?

 

[kimo'sabby]

Are you going to have a crack at looking at the tick chart & DOM then and going for 4+ tick moves and bailing if it goes a couple of ticks offside? Is this the new thinking?

I'm in the midst of perfecting The run, the range or both.

 

[counter_violent]

When price moves like that in the last hour of the session for no reason (known to you ) then you should pay attention.

This is worthy of expansion.

So the rally was across the board into the close of the US session and all of the "risk on" classes benefitted from the initial rise.

Somebody got word out of those European talks about what decisions would be made and announced at a yet unknown future point in time. (ironing out details before general announcement)
That future point in time was some 7+ hrs away from the initial rally.

This is market manipulation at it's very finest.

Those of us who have been around the block have observed many of these occurences previously and position ourselves for what is to come.

 

[kimo'sabby]

This is a rare 4am move

 

[counter_violent]

This is a rare 4am move

View attachment 139798

4AM news event yep.

Theres no way the markets didn't know this was coming

 

[kimo'sabby]

4AM news event yep.

Theres no way the markets didn't know this was coming

Exactly!

 

[kimo'sabby]

Slightly different perspective. All the bids are in, and the money is staying in overnight. Probably the only way to go....! Just a thought.