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Counter_V?😆
 
robster970 said:
When it failed to get past 61 I assumed this was going to happen. It really wanted to test and flush out weak hands who had gone long from 52.50 onwards.

btw Pat - I had a 50/50 of getting it right 🙂
Click to expand...

Interesting... I was hoping for 63 and change before sellers came in BUT what happened was just pre-news malaise.

As such, the conclusions I draw from the action are - none at all. I see it as meaningless action when the market is obviously waiting for a news report.

Do you not adjust at all for those periods where everyone is holding back on trading as they were yesterday or do you not worry about that at all?
 
DionysusToast said:
Interesting... I was hoping for 63 and change before sellers came in BUT what happened was just pre-news malaise.

As such, the conclusions I draw from the action are - none at all. I see it as meaningless action when the market is obviously waiting for a news report.

Do you not adjust at all for those periods where everyone is holding back on trading as they were yesterday or do you not worry about that at all?
Click to expand...

I'll take you through the reasoning which is in the picture:

1. Asian session made a marginal high after RTH-High on Friday but then sold off to lower value

2. European session tested this low and it held. It then went on to make a new high at 62.25

3. European session after making a higher low, failed to make a new high as sellers came in earlier at 61

4. This was supported by a lower low demonstrating to me that sentiment had turned downwards a little

5. US opened, range traded but failed to make it past 61 demonstrating that nobody thought value was above there

6. It then went for a test of the stablished low at 52.25 under volume to see whether it would hold. It did generally speaking.

That's how I read it all.
 

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Sorry Pedro, I didn't answer your question. I do take into account local or time specific behaviour in and around news/etc but I also consider the totality of price behaviour as it transitions through one geographic trading session to another and that for me has a far greater bearing than a transient news event which is already likely to have been priced in/positioned for.
 
Yup - I understand all that Rob

BUT (and this is just my opinion)

We had news due at 10, volume was low & the market was moving very slowly. In my journal yesterday I had a note that the market might do this becuse of the news at 10am.

We opened @ 1359 took a look down to 1357.50 and then up to 1361. By the time the news hit, we'd come back to 1358. A total range of 3.5 points in the first 30 minutes. I don't think it made an attempt to move up & failed. It was just in a fairly narrow range.

What we were seeing was a lot of people standing back and not playing until the news. The way I play it, I do not draw any conclusion on the action that takes place in that period. It really isn't failing to do anything, people are standing aside.

I personally will not draw any conclusions from these periods. As we get close to the news, the moves can become exagerrated because of the reduction in liquidity.

All of this action is indicative of pre-news behaviour and not of real price discovery/real auction action. I treat it as if the market isn't really open yet.

That's my 2c anyway...
 
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Morning folks

12:30am AUD Cash Rate 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
12:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
4:30am GBP Construction PMI 48.2 53.1 54.4
4:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 1.3B 1.1B 1.4B
4:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m -0.1% 1.4% 0.9%
4:30am GBP Mortgage Approvals 51K 51K 52K
5:00am EUR PPI m/m -0.2% 0.0%
10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m 0.1% -0.6%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 14.0M 13.8M
7:01pm GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 1.5%
7:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 43.5
9:30pm AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.2%
 
I agree that people will stand aside for news. However I also see participants not stand aside for news too so I choose not to take news into account apart from being positioned shortly before going into a news event where the vol is likely to take me out/hurt.

My data points are:

Asian session failed to make a materially newer high

European session did make a materially newer high

Ergo - US session is going to test for downside value to support new European high
 
Exactly Rob - sometimes the stand aside & sometimes they don't.

Or rather, sometimes the amount of people that stand aside is so significant that there is very little action leading into the news. Other times the amount of people standing aside is insignificant.

Yesterday the number of people standing aside was significant. Hence me ignoring the action it generates.

I dont disagree with your reasoning for a short - I had no immediate long scenarios in my analysis yesterday. I just think that the short opportunity could easily have come after a knee-jerk spike up after the news when those standing aside decided to pile in.
 
I suppose the non-execs are going to find another foreigner with dubious claims to be Barclay's new chief exec.

What they should be on the look out for is talent AND integrity

Not some smooth talking crook
 
Pat494 said:
I suppose the non-execs are going to find another foreigner with dubious claims to be Barclay's new chief exec.

What they should be on the look out for is talent AND integrity

Not some smooth talking foreign crook
Click to expand...

His current wealth is estimated to be over £100 million. I don't suppose the 1,000s of Barclays employees are doing so well ! Maybe he will give them a tearful farewell ? aaaaaAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH
 
Here is The Presenters Index from yesterday

Looks like a down day today so far
 

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Pat494 said:
His current wealth is estimated to be over £100 million. I don't suppose the 1,000s of Barclays employees are doing so well ! Maybe he will give them a tearful farewell ? aaaaaAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH
Click to expand...

The American mafia declined to comment except to say they have lots more suitable candidates

🙂
 
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Asia Up, Europe up marginally
10:00am Factory orders

I still remain unconvinced about this up move but the POC did move up yesterday from the large move up 2 days ago.
I think the scenario over the next 2 days will either be:
- Move down back towards 1300
- Establish a range 1350-1365 (which will expand) for 4-5 days before moving up to 1400

The first scenario calls for us to move back into balance pretty much from where we are now but there is a significant LVN @ 1363.50 which is begging to get tagged first. Then we have another @ 1369.

The second scenario sees a similar reversal point overhead but also has the potential for a reversal long from 1348.25, 1341.75

If we dip back below 1339.25, then I would expect us to be on the way to 1300 – not all in one day of course.

So – short 1363.50, 1365. Long 1348.25, 1341.75 (for a move back up to 1360.

Obviously, eyes on all the usual reference points for rotations.
 
10:11 – way up above value where sellers should be lurking.... failed to get back to top, sellers jumping on with size, delta moving down.

Hesitated far too long before entry & so in at a crappy price… could have easily got 3 ticks better but got confirmationitis. Now in a poor position if it moves against.

Sorry abt the large graphic - wanted you to see the delta move too.

7-3-201210-12-29AM.png


On this one will move T2 & T3 lower....
 
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