S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[JT_MOT]

Finally breaking out of that range now. I'll be tempted to short if we go another couple of points higher.

 

[VielGeld]

CAC opens at 7am. DAX and FTSE open at 8am GMT. DAX is in charge generally.

Thanks! That's some weird schedule.

Btw, good luck with these new trades. Pretty sure you're going to nail it.

You know I trade Eur/Usd at 3am, and if anything the moves up to 4:30-5am (EST) are some of the cleanest/most predictable I've seen anywhere. Should help a lot. I can see why Dinos likes this time.

Sorry for clogging up this thread with my story. I appreciated any feedback/advice/wake up calls anybody wants to offer on the back of it!

In my book, anyone who can type up that much is bound to make it eventually. :whistling

Rob's got the good stuff. Don't be afraid to bug him -- he's used to it already.

My advice is: practice, practice, and practice some more. Just soak in the screentime and make reviews of the session. You'll get it eventually if you haven't already.

 

[JT_MOT]

In my book, anyone who can type up that much is bound to make it eventually. :whistling

Rob's got the good stuff. Don't be afraid to bug him -- he's used to it already.

My advice is: practice, practice, and practice some more. Just soak in the screentime and make reviews of the session. You'll get it eventually if you haven't already.

Lol. I'm usually a man of few words so I even surprised myself. Actually it really helped me put everything in perspective and I feel more positive about it than ever.

Good advice, I shall certainly do that

 

[robster970]

I thought this quote from Calvin Coolidge was particularly fitting when it comes to learning to trade and expanding your repertoire:

"Nothing in the world can take the place of Persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'Press On' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race."

 

[Pat494]

Let's see what happens today

Using Bloomberg
Francine - green - up
Guy - blue tie - up
Deirdre - blue - up
Dom - blue tie - up
Sarah - pink - down
Sheila - blue - up
Erik - yellow tie - down
Stephanie - blue - up
Scarlet - red - down
Mannus - red tie - down

1 point for correct EOD forecast

Francine - green - up
Guy - blue tie - up
Deirdre - blue - up
Dom - blue tie - up
Sheila - blue - up
Stephanie - blue - up

These are still in the race after yesterday

 

[Pat494]

Let's see what happens today

Using Bloomberg
Francine - green - up
Guy - blue tie - up
Deirdre - blue - up
Dom - blue tie - up
Sarah - pink - down
Sheila - blue - up
Erik - yellow tie - down
Stephanie - blue - up
Scarlet - red - down
Mannus - red tie - down

Stay in for correct EOD forecast

Francine - green - up
Guy - red tie - down
Deirdre - blue - up
Dom - blue tie - up
Sheila - blue - up
Stephanie - blue - up

 

[robster970]

This mornings sim trade experiment continues

 

[Pat494]

My S&P daily future is "phone only" again so I think I was right to stick to cash.

 

[robster970]

My S&P daily future is "phone only" so I think I was right to stick to cash.

Odd, there is nothing exciting going on. All rather hum-drum by the looks of it.

 

[Pat494]

7:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m -0.7% -0.6% -0.5%
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.0% -0.2%
9:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 30.2K 32.8K 32.1K
11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 12 21
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.9% -0.9%
1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% 0.0%
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 1.2% -5.5%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.5M 2.9M

 

[Pat494]

Odd, there is nothing exciting going on. All rather hum-drum by the looks of it.

Should pick up at 1.30 pm

 

[Pat494]

It could go like this

 

[Pat494]

It could go like this

No no looks like a bust out of the tram-lines and up

 

[robster970]

No no looks like a bust out of the tram-lines and up

Positioned for news. Nobody is trading.

Personally if I took the approach of trading through the day, I would probably trade reversals at the extremes of the 4pt range.

 

[Pat494]

No no looks like a bust out of the tram-lines and up

Stick with the rules and all will be well.

Assuming " The Rules " are any good !

 

[Atilla]

It could go like this

I reckon just for today - up to 1330 and back down again... Will not trade this though. Call it a paper trade.

 

[robster970]

I reckon just for today - up to 1330 and back down again... Will not trade this though. Call it a paper trade.

ES? No. Cash? Agree.

 

[Atilla]

ES? No. Cash? Agree.

Yes for cash - I'm afraid I don't trade ES.

 

[robster970]

If you don't mind JT, I am going to deconstruct some things in your long post that I think you and others might find useful. As is always the case, this is just my opinion and not fact.

Like most people I wasted an awful lot of time looking for indicators and learning all kinds of TA. I am happy that I have now ditched all of that and now focus on simple price action and mainly support/resistance.

I have found that once you understand the mechanics of how the auction/price discovery process works, TA actually makes a little more sense. The problem with TA is that people interpret TA literally when in fact it is a bit more nuanced.

A lot of TA is also lagging price. This has two effects:

1) You enter a move late but it has an element of 'confirmation' embedded in it.

2) As you offset trade location vs confirmation, you get in at a sh1tier price and therefore limit the profitability of the trade.

I would say on longer timeframes it is meaningful but it isn't anything that is already evident in price alone. On short term timeframes, I doubt whether it provides anything better than a random outcome.

I am certainly aware of the journey ahead. I know it is not going to be easy. On the plus side my cost of living is low (especially for London), my girlfriend has a steady well paid job and I have enough experience to get back into work should I need to. So I am happy with the risk I am going to take.

You will probably need a lot of support from your girlfriend. Have you talked through the reality of this?

The only counsel I will put on the table is this:

The fantasy of trading will burst very, very quickly once you start doing this. It is likely to coincide with a lump of money gone and your head in a bit of a mess. You will need support from your GF. If she is complicit in the fantasy then you will start to attack each other. If you have a strong relationship you will need her support to work through this and this will also take its toll on her too. You really need to look after each other. Both of you should be prepared for some fairly rocky sh1t ahead.

When Pat posted the it was with really good reason. I think we're both saying the same thing to you - this is going to be far tougher than you anticipated on lots of different levels.

 

[Pat494]

That's right

Stick to the paper trading until you have found your winning niche !

Or you'll lose lots and lots