S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[Pat494]

I just went into the kitchen to talk to the Mrs

Are we recording the accuracy of the PI?

Certainly are so !

And expected to improve next week.

Wonder if they will play ? Not that they have much choice, but just a bit of fun !

Just love that redhead Stephie

 

[piggybridges]

long 1324.5
2.5 point stop

 

[Pat494]

long 1324.5
2.5 point stop

Talk us through your reasoning, if you want ?
Looks a bit dodgy to me but may come through.

 

[JT_MOT]

If you don't mind JT, I am going to deconstruct some things in your long post that I think you and others might find useful. As is always the case, this is just my opinion and not fact.

You will probably need a lot of support from your girlfriend. Have you talked through the reality of this?

The only counsel I will put on the table is this:

The fantasy of trading will burst very, very quickly once you start doing this. It is likely to coincide with a lump of money gone and your head in a bit of a mess. You will need support from your GF. If she is complicit in the fantasy then you will start to attack each other. If you have a strong relationship you will need her support to work through this and this will also take its toll on her too. You really need to look after each other. Both of you should be prepared for some fairly rocky sh1t ahead.

When Pat posted the it was with really good reason. I think we're both saying the same thing to you - this is going to be far tougher than you anticipated on lots of different levels.

Rob, of course I don't mind...otherwise I wouldn't have put such an honest account out there in the first place. The tougher you guys are on me now (and others reading this who may be in a similar position) the better.

Having said that once again its hard to explain without proper context. Depsite the fact I'm only 28, I have been with my GF for 7 years. We know each other extremely well. She also works in finance.. she works for a Fund of Hedge Funds. So she understand what I want to do, the risks involved and how hard it will be. I've helped her through some very tough times and now she is willing to repay the favour. But I agree, there will most certainly be tough times because of my journey ahead. Oh and I cut out the TA part as I agree and nothing further for me to say on that point

I also don't think that I have a 'trading fantasy'. Again I feel like I'm misunderstood here. I know how hard it is going to be. I don't expect to make big money off this. In fact I am quite prepared to earn much less than I do now for several years. I'm even prepared to fail and have to go back to work. But I do know that for some time at least that I will have no boss, I will be able to take time off when I want, I'll be doing what I've dreamed of and just maybe I'll make a good living off it one day too.

Perhaps I am missing the point and no matter how ready I think I am, in reality nothing can prepare me for the real emotions of a losing streak? This may be so and I guess only experience can teach me here. I appreciate the warning but I guess the only way to learn that fire is hot is to put your hand in the flames?? Maybe not a great analogy but all I can think of at this hour (I believe this is an 'a posteriori' argument, although my philosophy is rusty).

But please do keep throwing these arguments at me... I think its great for me to really think about these issues (and hopefully others can learn from it too)

p.s. no trade today, too busy with work

 

[JT_MOT]

Certainly are so !

And expected to improve next week.

Wonder if they will play ? Not that they have much choice, but just a bit of fun !

Just love that redhead Stephie

There are several flaws in your PI but the main one being who owns a red tie?? It makes you look like a prick

 

[JT_MOT]

That's right

Stick to the paper trading until you have found your winning niche !

Or you'll lose lots and lots

Just out of interest Pat, are you still paper trading? Just I don't see many comments on your trades.

 

[DionysusToast]

Back again. It's 9pm EST now - or 9am where I am.

Too early for pre-market analysis but catching up off my 'vacation', I'm having a review of where we stand.

Looks like we have been balanced around the areas with the yellow box above. Shorts above, longs below.

Not much of a change, really. We seem to be finding acceptance higher up but basically it's still sideways.

 

[Ritika Sharma]

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 11.89 points, or 0.90 percent, to 1,331.88.

 

[JT_MOT]

I think there is still some room for a little more upside today... will be interested to see how price reacts around 1330

 

[Pat494]

Just out of interest Pat, are you still paper trading? Just I don't see many comments on your trades.

I tend to fall back on paper trading after a bad patch.


I am great at paper trading, so after 2 successful trades I am back in the market for real. So a bit of both.

 

[VielGeld]

Yowza, massive sell-off going on! Never saw it coming!

But please do keep throwing these arguments at me... I think its great for me to really think about these issues (and hopefully others can learn from it too)

I'm merely surprised at how consistently your set of arguments appears when someone talks about something they want to do, but is/might be risky. It's not a bad thing... but it's also a sort of mental self-convincing thing.

Just know that you have to know when to quit, either when you're on top or if you've been at it for a long time and it's going nowhere.

Anyway, yes, stick to demo until you have something. Don't bet until you do. Literally. I lost big myself because I thought demo was for scrubs.

 

[Pat494]

OK you win. I was hoping you would ask what the PI is.

Stands for Presenter's Index.

Francine - green - up
Guy - red tie - down
Deirdre - blue - up
Dom - blue tie - up
Sheila - blue - up
Stephanie - blue - up

5 for up 1 down

Today's Presenter's Index.

Francine - grey/black - don't know ( only 1 allowed per week )
Deirdre - blue up
Dom - green - up
Sheila - blue up
Stephanie - blue - up

they are doing a lot better than a 50/50 guess !!

 

[robster970]

Today's Presenter's Index.

Francine - grey/black - don't know
Deirdre -
Dom -
Sheila -
Stephanie -

they are doing a lot better than a 50/50 guess !!

Sample size has not reached statistical significance

 

[Pat494]

12:50am JPY Retail Sales y/y 3.6% 3.1% 5.7%
2:00am AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m 0.7% 6.9%
2:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 12.6 27.1
5:30am CHF Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks
7:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m -0.6% 0.3% 0.2%
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 7K 4K 1K
9:10am EUR Retail PMI 48.3 43.3
9:30am GBP Current Account -11.2B -8.9B -7.2B
9:30am GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
9:30am GBP Final GDP q/q -0.3% -0.3% -0.3%
9:30am GBP Revised Business Investment q/q 1.9% 3.6% 3.6%
10:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
All Day EUR EU Economic Summit
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 6.03|1.4
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 385K 387K
1:30pm USD Final GDP q/q 1.9% 1.9%
1:30pm USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 1.7% 1.7%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 55B 62B
4:30pm USD FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks
6:00pm GBP MPC Member Weale Speaks
11:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m -7.2%

 

[splashy]

Yowza, massive sell-off going on! Never saw it coming!



I'm merely surprised at how consistently your set of arguments appears when someone talks about something they want to do, but is/might be risky. It's not a bad thing... but it's also a sort of mental self-convincing thing.

Just know that you have to know when to quit, either when you're on top or if you've been at it for a long time and it's going nowhere.

Anyway, yes, stick to demo until you have something. Don't bet until you do. Literally. I lost big myself because I thought demo was for scrubs.

Yep, i agree for some thats the case but i'm crap at demo because i can't take it seriously. I didn't start developing as a trader until i started feeling the pain of losing real money. However, it is important to have a proper strategy before you put real money on the table so if demo does it, then fine. When i'm looking at new things i just backtest extensively and then try it with small stakes.

Just my story on starting out...
i was full time trading about 3 years ago - not because i wanted to but because i had just come back from abroad and had nothing better to do while i was job hunting. I'd traded shares successfully for years with my spare cash and so i thought 'no problem'.
Off i went with my stash of cash. On my evening of my second day of trading, i was long gold when the fed made some earth-shattering announcement (can't remember what it was now). Gold shot up and i made about 500 pips in an hour. I think i bought wall street too. The next day, i'm looking at brochures for new cars lol...
The problem was, it was a suckers move because it made me think i was good at what i was doing when in reality i wasn't. Needless to say the profits disappeared and more besides...
it was a humbling experience but I hate being beaten so i tried every method/indicator and his dog until i f...king well tamed the beast...! Now i have a job i wouldn't change for the world so i trade part time but profitably. Mrs splashy calls it the holiday fund!
I also enjoy really enjoy trading but i missed the social aspect of going to work, meeting people etc.
The moral of the story? None, i wouldn't presume...but in general if someone wants to try something they should go for it. You tend to regret the things you don't try more than the things you get wrong.:smart:

 

[robster970]

Same thing splashy. Went live, had 3-4 weeks of perfect trading. Thought I was the dogs. Blew up, lost the profits and took a lump out of the trading capital. Had a headfnck, got it together and started taking it seriously.

I genuinely believe that you don't get your head into this game until you take a meaningful beating.

 

[Pat494]

The black line is the preferred option.

 

[JT_MOT]

Quick question, do any of your chart platforms have an Average Trade Size indicator?

 

[robster970]

Quick question, do any of your chart platforms have an Average Trade Size indicator?

No - you see the order flow on T&S (actual trade size)

 

[JT_MOT]

No - you see the order flow on T&S (actual trade size)

Sure.. but there is no way display that on charts after? Say for the previous hour. I know it would lag so it wouldn't suit you, but its just an idea I would like to look at.