S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[robster970]

Yesterday's trade

Often when I trade poorly, I spend time reflecting on the trade and what I did that irked me or doesn't sit well with me. I thought I would share some of my thoughts with you:

1) Not getting out at 14:59.53 GMT threw me wildly. Taking 6 ticks on 1 x risk before news is a good trade for me. Forgetting to set the quantity and generating an order handling error rarely happens to me. I could have just hit the liquidate button but I didn't. Then I was in the news and everything changed. Within 7 seconds I had moved from focussed to horror to fire fighting. Watching a winner turn into a loser really fncked me off.

2) Scaling in/ Averaging price - this is something I do. I know it is often seen as controversial but it is well considered when I do it. Yesterday was just bad, the reasons are as follows:

a) Scaling in and increasing risk is normally done when I believe that price will be constrained within the ON-H and ON-L.

b) This premise weakens based upon where the RTH- open is in relation to yesterday's range and if it open outside of the range, it tells me something is already out of balance and value is changing.

c) I will average down/scale in if I see weakness at ON-H. There was none yesterday and I should have just closed the trade as 12 tick loser.

d) Instead I decided to martingale my way out of this by watching likely areas where the VPOC may shift to, telling me that trade facilitation is moving into equilibrium.

3) Reading the narrative created post news. The VPOC moved up to 23.50 area telling me that the move had slowed down. I felt it was highly unlikely of a second consecutive trending day. I held onto this premise to get me out. It worked and in hindsight this was good luck.

So the moral of this story is that every now and again, something will happen that you do not normally have to deal with and how you deal with it, reflect on it and feed that back into your trading is what makes the difference over the long term.

Good trading to you all today.

 

[Pat494]

I reckon it's going to be a down day today imho

 

[Pat494]

Well um I'm in for a long

Hoping this is a bottom and a pullback is near.

 

[barjon]

Re: Yesterday's trade

Often when I trade poorly, I spend time reflecting on the trade and what I did that irked me or doesn't sit well with me. I thought I would share some of my thoughts with you:

1) Not getting out at 14:59.53 GMT threw me wildly. Taking 6 ticks on 1 x risk before news is a good trade for me. Forgetting to set the quantity and generating an order handling error rarely happens to me. I could have just hit the liquidate button but I didn't. Then I was in the news and everything changed. Within 7 seconds I had moved from focussed to horror to fire fighting. Watching a winner turn into a loser really fncked me off.

2) Scaling in/ Averaging price - this is something I do. I know it is often seen as controversial but it is well considered when I do it. Yesterday was just bad, the reasons are as follows:

a) Scaling in and increasing risk is normally done when I believe that price will be constrained within the ON-H and ON-L.

b) This premise weakens based upon where the RTH- open is in relation to yesterday's range and if it open outside of the range, it tells me something is already out of balance and value is changing.

c) I will average down/scale in if I see weakness at ON-H. There was none yesterday and I should have just closed the trade as 12 tick loser.

d) Instead I decided to martingale my way out of this by watching likely areas where the VPOC may shift to, telling me that trade facilitation is moving into equilibrium.

3) Reading the narrative created post news. The VPOC moved up to 23.50 area telling me that the move had slowed down. I felt it was highly unlikely of a second consecutive trending day. I held onto this premise to get me out. It worked and in hindsight this was good luck.

So the moral of this story is that every now and again, something will happen that you do not normally have to deal with and how you deal with it, reflect on it and feed that back into your trading is what makes the difference over the long term.

Good trading to you all today.

Rob

Excuse me for butting into the thread, but I think you did well not to panic after the initial error and to trade yourself out of it.

So far as the averaging down is concerned I think the crucial question is whether you would have considered those as trades if you'd had a clean sheet and not the "loss" overhanging you. If you would have done it was good trading, if not then luck has played its part.

Don't make the initial mistake again - but I absolve you this time, my son

jon

 

[Pat494]

Well um I'm in for a long

Hoping this is a bottom and a pullback is near.

Hit my tight stop

 

[robster970]

Re: Yesterday's trade

Rob

Excuse me for butting into the thread, but I think you did well not to panic after the initial error and to trade yourself out of it.

So far as the averaging down is concerned I think the crucial question is whether you would have considered those as trades if you'd had a clean sheet and not the "loss" overhanging you. If you would have done it was good trading, if not then luck has played its part.

Don't make the initial mistake again - but I absolve you this time, my son

jon

Trade 2 at 1322 was marginal, I was in a different frame of mind by then. In the cold light of day, no I wouldn't take that and would bail.

Trade 3 at 1324.25 is a yes because I could see the move was over and there was demonstrable weakness up at that price. The size was commensurate with bring average price up to 1322 too so I could benefit from the rotation down to 19.50. It did go further but I wanted to just get out with costs covered. I got a bit more. The explanation itself demonstrates that calculation and premeditation had worked itself back into the scenario.

I agree with your sentiment though Jon. Making mistakes is inevitable and you do learn to deal with them over time.

 

[Pat494]

Another try to guess the bottom

LONG for the bounce

 

[robster970]

a. ONH 1315.50, ONL 1302.50
b. Gap close at 1315.25 - confluence with ONH
c. ON VPOC at 1305.75, NVPOC at 1305.75 - no disagreement on price today so far
d. Delta is negative for ON session and news at 3pm so watch that
e. OAOR to downside, 380k CBAVOL
f. Buying ledge around 1303.50 area - watch this
g. Missed tagging of VPOC before some momentum!
h. This is quite choppy, 2 way auction, nobody in control yet
i. Can see sellers coming in heavy around 1308, momentum downwards
j. Pushing on the VPOC now - little reaction, this is being leaned on
k. There it goes - now watch for the buying ledge
l. Support there, long market order at 1303.75 @ 14:51 GMT (1) - good entry!
m. ok pushing up now but seems to be getting a little resistance.
n. Don't like this out, market order at 1304.50 at 14:52GMT (2) - fluffed the exit!
o. 3 tick profit before commissions
p. MAE 0 ticks, MFE 11 ticks, exit efficiency 25%!
q. Best trade, this one but could have held a little longer.
r. Nice to do a normal trade today. Felt a little hesitant trigger pulling, hangover from yesterday.

 

[JT_MOT]

JT - interesting about you talking about posting only good/lucky days.

I was thinking about committing to this thread on a daily basis. I have a reservation about that and I am wondering if any of you guys have the same 'issue'.

My thoughts are that if I start the day with the intent to post the results, then that will impact my performance negatively. I did it before in the trading comp - first trade was easy to do - I had no pressure, didn't have to enter, I got into a trade and then started posting shots. The next one I had to do was an entirely different thing. I HAD to enter a trade for the comp and I was actually nervous about doing it.

It could work the other way too - the fact you have to post every trade could make you think more about it. Even so, it's still going to effect the way you trade.

Do you guys feel this, notice this? Is it just something you get used to?

I've never joined in a live call thread before but I did have the same thoughts as you, wasn't sure what impact it will have. The main reason I decided to join in was because I loved the way Robster describes his thought process while in a trade. Emotions we all have to deal with no matter which way we trade.

If I feel posting my trades starts having a negative impact then I'll definitely stop, but I don't think it will. I'm sure I will learn from the rest of you and the thread should provide some entertainment too!

So please keep posting, I am finding it very interesting indeed!

 

[robster970]

I've never joined in a live call thread before but I did have the same thoughts as you, wasn't sure what impact it will have. The main reason I decided to join in was because I loved the way Robster describes his thought process while in a trade. Emotions we all have to deal with no matter which way we trade.

If I feel posting my trades starts having a negative impact then I'll definitely stop, but I don't think it will. I'm sure I will learn from the rest of you and the thread should provide some entertainment too!

So please keep posting, I am finding it very interesting indeed!

 

[JT_MOT]

And now for my trade today.. again it is almost embarrassingly simple, but I'll make no apologies for that

Woke up, looked at various charts and all I could think was 'risk off' and 'big round number'. For some reason I have an irrational hatred for both these phrases (probably too many twitter vendors use them) but anyway this formulated my plan for the day.

Sell at previous support level around 1315 and ride it down to the 1300 level (don't see much resistance in the way). Worked out beautifully.

Two good days in a row and some people would say that my confidence is up and I'm making good trades so I should increase my bet size. But in fact I will either not trade tomorrow or do a fraction of my normal size. This is due to the fact in the past whenver I feel 'hey I'm getting the hang of this' I usually take a stupid trade and give back a week's worth of profits. Anybody else have this?

Attached the chart although not much to see, just a nice bearish bar straight into my level and the gradual decline down. The bounce after my exit just helps my feel good factor that would usually ruin my week's performance!

Nice trade today Robster, something more textbook should certainly settle you down to get back in the flow and grab some good ticks for the rest of the week.

 

[robster970]

Oddly I hit my weekly soft target on yesterday's lunacy. Today was just me getting back on the horse. I don't need to trade now for rest of week. Might trade tomorrow, see how I feel when I get up.

 

[JT_MOT]

So much for not trading tomorrow, I'm already in another trade! Short at 1318.53.. couldn't resist fading that rally. Based on nothing more than a rumour of a Eurowide Deposit Guarantee (according to people on twitter who I earlier made fun of).

There you go, an actual live call.. don't want to get greedy here, just a few bonus ticks for the day. Lets see how it does, I'll watch carefull and bail out at first sign of trouble if need be I'm not a seasoned scalper like the rest of you, not so good at the short term stuff!

 

[robster970]

So much for not trading tomorrow, I'm already in another trade! Short at 1318.53.. couldn't resist fading that rally. Based on nothing more than a rumour of a Eurowide Deposit Guarantee (according to people on twitter who I earlier made fun of).

There you go, an actual live call.. don't want to get greedy here, just a few bonus ticks for the day. Lets see how it does, I'll watch carefull and bail out at first sign of trouble if need be I'm not a seasoned scalper like the rest of you, not so good at the short term stuff!

Trade what you see, not what other people think. I'll be interested to see how this one works out too.

Question for you JT - would you have taken this with no rumour? :whistling

 

[JT_MOT]

Trade what you see, not what other people think. I'll be interested to see how this one works out too.

Question for you JT - would you have taken this with no rumour? :whistling

You are quite right of course. A good question and I can't be sure, but I definitely didn't base my trade just on that. I should have said but I haven't based it just on the rumour, in fact I love it when price approaches a level fast. People tend to want to get out before their profits disappear as fast as they appear, at least that's why I believe it works.

Chart attached to prove I'm not just some crazy twitter trader

Just closed out at 1316.78.. that will do. Now definitely no more for me, honestly

 

[robster970]

You are quite right of course. A good question and I can't be sure, but I definitely didn't base my trade just on that. I should have said but I haven't based it just on the rumour, in fact I love it when price approaches a level fast. People tend to want to get out before their profits disappear as fast as they appear, at least that's why I believe it works.

Chart attached to prove I'm not just some crazy twitter trader

Just closed out at 1316.78.. that will do. Now definitely no more for me, honestly

Switch it into daily and tell me what you see about todays trading.....

 

[JT_MOT]

It teIls me that tomorrow I'll be looking for longs instead of shorts!

Being serious, it tells me that today's downward move was rejected and it looks like the downtrend has run out of steam and its ready for a retrace. Price went below but then finished well above the swing low of 30th Jan.

Not sure if this means my trade was bad one or not, I still think fading that rally was a decent play.

Have I missed anything?

 

[robster970]

No sir, you haven't.

 

[JT_MOT]

No sir, you haven't.

Haha ok cool, I have to say I hadn't looked at the daily chart properly since this morning and was worried about what I was going to see

Lets see if tomorrow does indeed confirm what the chart would suggest! 'Trade what you see' is definitely something that will be going round my head for the rest of the day now though. A simple message but a crucial one that can't be repeated enough in my opinion.

Cheers Robster

 

[robster970]

No problem. Any time JT

It took me a long time to learn that lesson.