kimo'sabby
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S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat
- Thread starter robster970
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robster970
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I agree Kimo - it is usually sharp around the open but even so when the pro's decide not to flow somewhere, there absence is also an indicator. I like the open as the price discovery phase before most participants have declared their hands often provides some fairly good opportunities.
Pat494
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.
.
By James Saft
July 27 (Reuters) - With risks of a U.S. recession mounting,
it is shaping up to be a hairy summer for investors.
The recent run of U.S. economic data has been disappointing,
with weak employment and manufacturing numbers. The Economic
Cycle Research Institute's four-week moving average of its key
gauge has now been negative for eight straight weeks, and
consumer spending is down for the third month in a row.
Moreover, and more crucially, government spending reductions
pose a threat, both this year and next.
Secondly, the United States, at the very least, will have to
contend with deflationary waves from Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) for the foreseeable
future.
Even if the ECB steps in to rescue Spain -- or whoever ails
next -- it seems very likely that Europe will act as a drag as
well as a source of risk and uncertainty.
Finally, we might be in the first earnings season since 2009
in which earnings at S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC - news) companies actually sink. The run
has been disappointing thus far, with Apple (NasdaqGS: AAPL - news) showing
that perhaps not enough people need new phones every six to nine
months, and Zynga Inc demonstrating the limits of a
business strategy based on virtual soil and make-believe manure.
"The disappointing slew of revenue results in the ongoing Q2
U.S. reporting round is entirely consistent with the economy
having dipped into recession," Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) strategist
Albert Edward wrote in a note to clients.
Third-quarter earnings of Standard & Poor's 500
companies are now expected to dip 0.1 percent from a year ago, a
sharp downward revision from the July 1 forecast of 3.1 percent
growth, Thomson Reuters (Toronto: TRI.TO - news) data showed on Thursday.
"Analysts are now hammering downward their full-year revenue
projections. But even before the earnings reporting season got
started, it was already clear that something was amiss on
the U.S. corporate top-line as nominal business sales growth
totally stalled in the three months to May on an economy-wide
basis."
While margins on some readings appear to be holding up, in a
disparity between margins and the top line it is usually wise to
trust in revenues as the more reliable guide. Margins, after
all, can be hoisted higher by many means but cash flows never
lie.
Balanced against these risks is, in essence, one
institution: the Federal Reserve.
Investors' prime hope is that the Fed will swoop in with
quantitative easing or some other form of relief should the
economy, and markets, show real signs of stress. A story by The
Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath, seen to have a line into
Fed thinking, raised the possibility that some action may come
out of the Fed's meeting next week.
LONG WAY TO JACKSON HOLE
But there are several fundamental problems with an
investment strategy predicated on help from the Fed.
First (OTC BB: FSTC.OB - news) off, there is every chance that nothing, or very
little, comes out of next week's meeting. While there is some
hope that there might be tinkering with the rate of interest
banks are paid on reserves or perhaps a small bond buying
program targeted at the housing market, the outlook for a really
big piece of stimulus at this point is not good.
If so, that means we have to wait until the Jackson Hole
economic conference, hosted by the Kansas City Fed at the end of
August, for hope of delivery.
That is quite possible - the Fed in recent years has used
this forum as a place at which to deliver new programs. Still,
it is a long way to Jackson Hole, and in the meantime, there are
plenty of possible sources of shocks and volatility.
There is also, of course, the possibility that the Fed duly
delivers and after an inevitable rally, stocks fade rapidly once
again.
We have had four years of extraordinary monetary policy and
the big winners so far have been bondholders. Neither the
economy or the stock market has been able to maintain traction
in that time.
Like the repeated rescues by the European Central Bank, the
shelf life of Fed-induced euphoria seems to get shorter every
time. A market that believes that 1) the U.S. is heading into
recession and 2) the Fed will not be very effective is one on
the way down.
"The first rule of summer is not to trade; the second is if
you have to trade, not to do much; the third is if you have to
do a lot, then only buy safe stuff," Bob Savage, a long-time
market veteran and CEO of research clearinghouse Track.com wrote
to clients.
Summer 2012 might prove to be a good time to do very little
other than keep your head down and enjoy the Olympics.
...
.
.
By James Saft
July 27 (Reuters) - With risks of a U.S. recession mounting,
it is shaping up to be a hairy summer for investors.
The recent run of U.S. economic data has been disappointing,
with weak employment and manufacturing numbers. The Economic
Cycle Research Institute's four-week moving average of its key
gauge has now been negative for eight straight weeks, and
consumer spending is down for the third month in a row.
Moreover, and more crucially, government spending reductions
pose a threat, both this year and next.
Secondly, the United States, at the very least, will have to
contend with deflationary waves from Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) for the foreseeable
future.
Even if the ECB steps in to rescue Spain -- or whoever ails
next -- it seems very likely that Europe will act as a drag as
well as a source of risk and uncertainty.
Finally, we might be in the first earnings season since 2009
in which earnings at S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC - news) companies actually sink. The run
has been disappointing thus far, with Apple (NasdaqGS: AAPL - news) showing
that perhaps not enough people need new phones every six to nine
months, and Zynga Inc demonstrating the limits of a
business strategy based on virtual soil and make-believe manure.
"The disappointing slew of revenue results in the ongoing Q2
U.S. reporting round is entirely consistent with the economy
having dipped into recession," Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) strategist
Albert Edward wrote in a note to clients.
Third-quarter earnings of Standard & Poor's 500
companies are now expected to dip 0.1 percent from a year ago, a
sharp downward revision from the July 1 forecast of 3.1 percent
growth, Thomson Reuters (Toronto: TRI.TO - news) data showed on Thursday.
"Analysts are now hammering downward their full-year revenue
projections. But even before the earnings reporting season got
started, it was already clear that something was amiss on
the U.S. corporate top-line as nominal business sales growth
totally stalled in the three months to May on an economy-wide
basis."
While margins on some readings appear to be holding up, in a
disparity between margins and the top line it is usually wise to
trust in revenues as the more reliable guide. Margins, after
all, can be hoisted higher by many means but cash flows never
lie.
Balanced against these risks is, in essence, one
institution: the Federal Reserve.
Investors' prime hope is that the Fed will swoop in with
quantitative easing or some other form of relief should the
economy, and markets, show real signs of stress. A story by The
Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath, seen to have a line into
Fed thinking, raised the possibility that some action may come
out of the Fed's meeting next week.
LONG WAY TO JACKSON HOLE
But there are several fundamental problems with an
investment strategy predicated on help from the Fed.
First (OTC BB: FSTC.OB - news) off, there is every chance that nothing, or very
little, comes out of next week's meeting. While there is some
hope that there might be tinkering with the rate of interest
banks are paid on reserves or perhaps a small bond buying
program targeted at the housing market, the outlook for a really
big piece of stimulus at this point is not good.
If so, that means we have to wait until the Jackson Hole
economic conference, hosted by the Kansas City Fed at the end of
August, for hope of delivery.
That is quite possible - the Fed in recent years has used
this forum as a place at which to deliver new programs. Still,
it is a long way to Jackson Hole, and in the meantime, there are
plenty of possible sources of shocks and volatility.
There is also, of course, the possibility that the Fed duly
delivers and after an inevitable rally, stocks fade rapidly once
again.
We have had four years of extraordinary monetary policy and
the big winners so far have been bondholders. Neither the
economy or the stock market has been able to maintain traction
in that time.
Like the repeated rescues by the European Central Bank, the
shelf life of Fed-induced euphoria seems to get shorter every
time. A market that believes that 1) the U.S. is heading into
recession and 2) the Fed will not be very effective is one on
the way down.
"The first rule of summer is not to trade; the second is if
you have to trade, not to do much; the third is if you have to
do a lot, then only buy safe stuff," Bob Savage, a long-time
market veteran and CEO of research clearinghouse Track.com wrote
to clients.
Summer 2012 might prove to be a good time to do very little
other than keep your head down and enjoy the Olympics.
...
.
Pat494
Legendary member
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- 1,588
Fri
Jul 27 All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.4% -0.1%
3:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 1.43 1.24 1.15
3:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate 24.6% 24.7% 24.4%
8:30am USD Advance GDP q/q 1.5% 1.9%
8:30am USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.6% 2.0%
9:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 72.0 72.0
9:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%
Jul 27 All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.4% -0.1%
3:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 1.43 1.24 1.15
3:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate 24.6% 24.7% 24.4%
8:30am USD Advance GDP q/q 1.5% 1.9%
8:30am USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.6% 2.0%
9:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 72.0 72.0
9:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%
kimo'sabby
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Tbh Rob, i've found that these on/off phases in action can happen at anytime, usually 9am - 9pm UK time, not just in session. For instance, yesterdays action started pre-session, and that's really not uncommon.
Some traders do not trade the open, but i personally look to the open as possible opportunity.
robster970
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Yesterday is a very good example and it actually started in Wednesday's session didn't it when it couldn't get below 26. Sign of sell orderflow drying up. Test in the European session that didn't get below 27.50 and then the shorts started to liquidate their positions right up to RTH.
The question for me then was would RTH provide any more short covering? When it weakened around 56, I thought the answer was no........
kimo'sabby
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Absolutely. Pre-session volumes are naturally gonna be light, the trick is to take into consideration the trading of the previous session. I mentioned 9am - 9pm uk time, you could probably add a bit on in the AM, say from 6am...Do all your sleeping at the weekend
robster970
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Absolutely. Pre-session volumes are naturally gonna be light, the trick is to take into consideration the trading of the previous session. I mentioned 9am - 9pm uk time, you could probably add a bit on in the AM, say from 6am...Do all your sleeping at the weekend
I've always felt that the European session is used to re-position value by large players without the burden of RTH volumes.....
kimo'sabby
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kimo'sabby
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@Rob. Look at todays action from around 6.45 onwards, that is action with a purpose, and a great example of what we were discussing.
robster970
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DionysusToast
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You really have to marvel @ these markets and the media hoopla that surrounds them....
At this point, it's probably worth considering how damn schizophrenic the markets really are.
Friday 20th, then the 23rd & 24th there really was a lot in the media about how this was "the end" and hey presto a couple of days later & we are back where we started.
So - was the down move a bunch of smart people in funds re-positioning their long term positions? Did they then have a think again and move it up? Doesn't seem very smart to me...
Was risk off for 3 days and all the uber-investors realized that actually risk should be on again? Not so uber, really are they?
Not to say I don't get caught up in this as much as anyone else. I don't watch any financial news but you can't really avoid this stuff - CNBC, Bloomberg et al assigning some 'cause' to the up or down move of the day and brining in a pundit to say the sky is falling/sun is shining.
It's all just people trying to anticipate what people are going to do. Trying to understand it would drive you nuts because the whole thing IS irrational.
And long may that continue.
OK - so the Sky is NOT falling in....
Here we have a potential balance area within a balance area. (daily chart)
The longer term balance area we have been in since May suggests a continued moved down below 1300.
The shorter term balance area calls for a move up from a point below 1330 – somewhere that is considered
cheap, relatively speaking. Plenty of people are short from the last 3 days so.
At this point, it's probably worth considering how damn schizophrenic the markets really are.
Friday 20th, then the 23rd & 24th there really was a lot in the media about how this was "the end" and hey presto a couple of days later & we are back where we started.
So - was the down move a bunch of smart people in funds re-positioning their long term positions? Did they then have a think again and move it up? Doesn't seem very smart to me...
Was risk off for 3 days and all the uber-investors realized that actually risk should be on again? Not so uber, really are they?
Not to say I don't get caught up in this as much as anyone else. I don't watch any financial news but you can't really avoid this stuff - CNBC, Bloomberg et al assigning some 'cause' to the up or down move of the day and brining in a pundit to say the sky is falling/sun is shining.
It's all just people trying to anticipate what people are going to do. Trying to understand it would drive you nuts because the whole thing IS irrational.
And long may that continue.
Last edited:
Ritika Sharma
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The Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 25.95 points, or 1.91 percent, to finish at 1,385.97.
robster970
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Seems like you are doing the " sniper " approach Rob ? One well aimed trade.
Could try the " sub machine gun " approach and see if it produces any profits ?
It's just not my style tbh Pat. I just lose focus and chase the market.
Pat494
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I don't like the one you are getting!
Hey not so fast Splitto, the one lying down is yours !
