S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

Mon
Jul 30
3:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP q/q -0.4% -0.4% -0.3%
4:10am EUR Retail PMI 46.4 48.3
4:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 0.3B 0.8B 1.1B
4:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m -1.6% 0.3% -0.1%
4:30am GBP Mortgage Approvals 44K 49K 51K
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 5.82|1.7
6:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 17 42
7:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -28 -29
7:15pm JPY Manufacturing PMI 49.9
7:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y 3.1% 4.0%
7:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.4%
9:00pm NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 12.6
9:30pm AUD Building Approvals m/m -15.0% 27.3%
9:30pm AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.4% 0.5%
9:30pm JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.1% -1.1%
 
Could be this ahead ?
 

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30th July

Interesting day today. Note that it's the end of the month, companies reporting performance on a monthly basis might be interested in nudging this around.

We are in a key area:
12 month high overhead – 1417.25
Fridays high - 1385.00
Previous top of range was - 1376.50

7-30-20126-53-18AM.png


Was Fridays push up a true breakout of the range or just a push through which will see us move back down into the range?

As of 7:20 AM EST, we’ve managed to mostly stay above that 1376.50 level.

Fridays VPOC was 1370, although a lot of trading occurred up in the 80’s. It was more like a double distribution day.

I’d have 1370 as a line in the sand to the downside if we are going to hold up for more of a move to the upside.

Market is pretty much balanced overnight, right around where we closed on Friday. Volume is average

Scenarios
Off the open
1 – Because of where we are opening, there’s a high probability it will be a choppy start with rotations but not much price development up or down
2 – We peek up above Fridays high before rolling down. Whilst this is how the ES operates, we don’t really have a lot of stops above to take out with such a move.

On the day
3 – Move down to 1370 and a push back up
4 – Start of a move down to 1320

Basically, an interesting day because we’ve hit this high a few times and so there’s a good chance we’ll come out of balance, so to me it’s 50/50 whether we’ll move on to new highs or back to the bottom of the range. We could well gun the year high OR take out Fridays gains.

Longs
ONL (currently 1375.75), 1370, retraces after a strong push up through the ONH
Shorts
ONH - 1381.50, 1382.50, 1385
 
Last edited:
robster970 said:
We're watching the same levels DT.......
Click to expand...

Cool - I have a cold & just took some meds, would you mind placing my trades for me?

Actually, reading my pre-market analysis, I do realise that every day I say "it might go up or it might go down".

Must seem daft to most...
 
DionysusToast said:
Cool - I have a cold & just took some meds, would you mind placing my trades for me?

Actually, reading my pre-market analysis, I do realise that every day I say "it might go up or it might go down".

Must seem daft to most...
Click to expand...

Sitting on the fence might be a better description. :D
 
DionysusToast said:
Cool - I have a cold & just took some meds, would you mind placing my trades for me?

Actually, reading my pre-market analysis, I do realise that every day I say "it might go up or it might go down".

Must seem daft to most...
Click to expand...

I reckon if I were sat next to you when I enter, using your account, you'd be shouting "WTF are you doing, there's no confirmation you tard....." :p

Plus for the amount of leverage I'd squeeze out of your account, I'd be setting your max trade to about 10fold of what you are trading right now. That would make you squeak.

I have a bias for the money flow but how it opens plays a big part in how to trade these levels, as you already know amigo.
 
This is where I get a bit frustrated with the scaling. I'd consider a long here but I have 1 last bit of a short on.
 
robster970 said:
Why don't you cover and reverse? Follow what the mkt is telling you?
Click to expand...

I'm going to have to mull that over to be honest. I don't have a good answer, which is why I don't change things. If anything, perhaps I need to change just the way I handle this in the first 30-60 mins.

I just got stopped on the last part and of course this means market went up from where I would have gone long if I didn't have a bit of short on. So, I'd be sitting on 1 full winner and a part of another winner @ this point.

Anyway, I will go to bed now 'cause the cold meds are making me drowsy.
 
Tue Jul 31
1:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y -0.2% 9.5% 9.3%
2:00am CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 1.60 1.02
2:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.6% -0.3%
2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.1% 0.2% 0.5%
3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 9K 7K
4:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.2% 10.1%
5:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.4% 2.4%
5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 11.2% 11.1%
5:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
8:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.2% 0.3%
8:30am CAD RMPI m/m -1.5% -1.0%
8:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.6% 0.0%
8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.1%
8:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.5% 0.4%
8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.1% 0.0%
8:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.5% 0.2%
9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -1.5% -1.9%
9:45am USD Chicago PMI 52.6 52.9
10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 61.5 62.0
4:00pm USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
7:01pm GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 1.1%
7:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 47.2
9:00pm CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.4 50.2
9:30pm AUD HPI q/q -0.5% -1.1%
10:30pm CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 49.5

Loads of companies reporting today.
 
31st July

Big news day as above. Look out @ 9:45 & 10am. Opening reversal trades are going to be risky.

Yesterday didn’t change much. Volume was very low – about 1.4 million contracts compared to average of about 2 million per day.

7-31-20127-54-15AM.png


Overnight volume also well down at this point (8:31am). News didn't change much.

Whilst the bigger picture is the same as yesterday (close to high, pierced resistance), we now have no follow through. As well as the bigger picture, we should consider that we are in a tight trading range and so this might be were we stay for a while, especially if the news events don't kick start something.

Potential Range Continuation

7-31-20128-11-43AM.png


As per yesterday - we are in a key area:
12 month high overhead – 1417.25
Fridays high - 1385.00
Previous top of range was - 1376.50
Fridays VPOC was 1370, although a lot of trading occurred up in the 80’s. It was more like a double distribution day.
I’d have 1370 as a line in the sand to the downside if we are going to hold up for more of a move to the upside.

Fridays VPOC was 1370, although a lot of trading occurred up in the 80’s. It was more like a double distribution day.

I’d have 1370 as a line in the sand to the downside if we are going to hold up for more of a move to the upside.

Market is pretty much balanced overnight, right around where we closed on yesterday. Volume is below average. Looks like this pop up is set to fail.

Scenarios
Off the open
1 – Because of where we are opening, there’s a high probability it will be a choppy start with rotations but not much price development up or down
2 – We peek up above Fridays high before rolling down. Whilst this is how the ES operates, we don’t really have a lot of stops above to take out with such a move.

On the day
3 – Move down to 1370 and a push back up
4 – Start of a move down to 1320
5 - Rotate around the new balance area - shorts above 1383, longs below 1377.50


Longs
- 1380.50 (Yest Close), 1376.50 (prior top of range), 1375.75 (Yest Low) 1373.75 (lvn below new range), 1370 (naked VPOC), the open price.
Shorts
- ONH - 1386.50, YH/LVN 1387.50/1388
 
Last edited:
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