jezek5
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It was a good rejection from that 1344 level on the 4 hr earlier
but there still seems to be some buying underneath it,
staying out for now i think.
Looks like another test of 1344 in the making.
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It was a good rejection from that 1344 level on the 4 hr earlier
but there still seems to be some buying underneath it,
staying out for now i think.
Looks like another test of 1344 in the making.
robster970
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So you may or may not have noticed that I have recently switched to using limit orders rather than market orders which I have done for quite a long time (> 18mnths).
The reason for this is simple. I did some analysis of my trades for the last 12 months and found that:
a) My MAE is generally about 3-4 ticks. It is rare for me to completely nail them when they take off. I worked out that by using limit orders rather than market orders and taking advantage of being a little quick off the mark, I get into the rotation at a greater extreme.
b) This pushes my Stop further out, giving me a bit more room
c) The use of limit orders at the 8 tick target as a fixed exit should lower my hit rate to about 60% but increase profitability by about 1/3 because the r:r goes up.
However the downside of using limit orders is you don't always get filled, like today.
I'm not a big fan of chasing the market. When the opportunity goes, I let it go.
The reason for this is simple. I did some analysis of my trades for the last 12 months and found that:
a) My MAE is generally about 3-4 ticks. It is rare for me to completely nail them when they take off. I worked out that by using limit orders rather than market orders and taking advantage of being a little quick off the mark, I get into the rotation at a greater extreme.
b) This pushes my Stop further out, giving me a bit more room
c) The use of limit orders at the 8 tick target as a fixed exit should lower my hit rate to about 60% but increase profitability by about 1/3 because the r:r goes up.
However the downside of using limit orders is you don't always get filled, like today.
I'm not a big fan of chasing the market. When the opportunity goes, I let it go.
rathcoole_exile
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yep, I'm done with this for this week, unless there's any further clarity
Pat494
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2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 5.9 5.9 5.8
2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m -1.5% -0.6% -0.7%
4:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3.2% 2.9% 3.1%
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% -0.1% -1.7%
4:00am EUR Private Loans y/y -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
5:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.1% 0.7%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 381K 386K
8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% 1.3%
10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.6% 5.9%
10:00am USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 26B 28B
7:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y -0.6% -0.6%
7:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y 0.0% -0.1%
7:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y 1.2% 3.6%
2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m -1.5% -0.6% -0.7%
4:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3.2% 2.9% 3.1%
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% -0.1% -1.7%
4:00am EUR Private Loans y/y -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
5:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.1% 0.7%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 381K 386K
8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% 1.3%
10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.6% 5.9%
10:00am USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 26B 28B
7:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y -0.6% -0.6%
7:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y 0.0% -0.1%
7:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y 1.2% 3.6%
robster970
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Pic pls Pat....
e2a - it's difficult to estimate it from the pic Pat (wide angled lens/etc). I need shipbuilder (if available), name and estimated length pls...
DionysusToast
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26th July - The sky still isn't falling...
On the daily chart, we can see we came out the bottom of the short term balance area and come back into it.
Here's the zoomed in chart - not sure why my value area is a bit different - but it doesn't matter, it's a rough guide.
Scenario 1 - we move up to an LVN above value - 1364, 1370 or even push through that high again @ 1376 and move back down.
Scenario 2 - overnight move has no legs and we move down from the overnight high 1354.50 or the naked vpoc @ 1359 to move down & shake out shorts. This is then followed by a continuation up from yesterdays high 1340 (also an LVN) or the gap close 1334.75.
Longs 1334.75, 1340
Shorts 1354, 1359, 1364, 1370
News @ 10am might cause a dull start.
On the daily chart, we can see we came out the bottom of the short term balance area and come back into it.
Here's the zoomed in chart - not sure why my value area is a bit different - but it doesn't matter, it's a rough guide.
Scenario 1 - we move up to an LVN above value - 1364, 1370 or even push through that high again @ 1376 and move back down.
Scenario 2 - overnight move has no legs and we move down from the overnight high 1354.50 or the naked vpoc @ 1359 to move down & shake out shorts. This is then followed by a continuation up from yesterdays high 1340 (also an LVN) or the gap close 1334.75.
Longs 1334.75, 1340
Shorts 1354, 1359, 1364, 1370
News @ 10am might cause a dull start.
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DionysusToast
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btw - not posting trades today. Gonna give that a rest. Feeling pressured by it.
robster970
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Done
robster970
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Pat494
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No worries there Rob, it's plenty long enough to accomodate you and your tribe.
The A list lovelies will be partying there tonight, tomorrow night and .......... you get the picture.
robster970
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LOL - I love boat p0rn.
I remember browsing through a mag at Heathrow called 'Boat' - it's basically a boat mag for oligarchs. Anyway there was a special feature on Tenders. Their idea of tenders though was a 32ft sports cruiser with a 320HP Yanmar turbocharged engine that would do 45knots - just what you need to get you too and from the charming local harbour as you are moored off-shore
kimo'sabby
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Took bid 51 just before the open and auto trailed a 2pt stop order, got 2pts. I'm currently bid 49 with auto trail on for 2 pts.
@Toastie. You ever tried automating for ES? If so how did it go? You don't have to be specific, i'm just being nosey, just after some general feedback.
@Toastie. You ever tried automating for ES? If so how did it go? You don't have to be specific, i'm just being nosey, just after some general feedback.
kimo'sabby
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Went bid 49 again, stop currently @ 51, if the market trades 55 stop will move to 53.
kimo'sabby
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Thought i was going to catch 59, not to be though. Filled @ 55.
DionysusToast
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My trading journey started off with an attempt to automate. Then I took a step back and said to myself "how can you automate something you don't know how to do?".
So I put that to one side.
What I discoverd, for me at least, is that trading is not a mechanical endeavour. It is a game, a social experiment. I can't see how what I do could be automated to be honest. I never returned to automation because I totally believe that a discretionary trader has the best edge.
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DionysusToast
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Rob
A question if I may.
On yesterdays trade, we had a push up and rejection, something quite common.
When you get the push lower to confirm that there is downside pressure, do you have a point at which you won't enter the trade? For instance if the high is 1380 and you see it move down 8 ticks but didn't enter yet - will you still get in.
Now - I am not talking about ANY entry, I am specifically talking about a drive up and a rejection off the open - where the rejection can run a fair amount of points and a rotation may not occur after the usual 2-3 points.
If this is too intimate a question - no problems.
Cheers
Pete
A question if I may.
On yesterdays trade, we had a push up and rejection, something quite common.
When you get the push lower to confirm that there is downside pressure, do you have a point at which you won't enter the trade? For instance if the high is 1380 and you see it move down 8 ticks but didn't enter yet - will you still get in.
Now - I am not talking about ANY entry, I am specifically talking about a drive up and a rejection off the open - where the rejection can run a fair amount of points and a rotation may not occur after the usual 2-3 points.
If this is too intimate a question - no problems.
Cheers
Pete
robster970
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I think getting your Mrs to knot me a bikini is intimate - an entry question isn't
These are general guidelines (note, not rules):
The weakness has to be exhibited no more than a couple of points from the extreme of the ON range (this could be ON-H or ON-L - I apply it in both directions). Yesterday was a good example - ONH was 54.75, it made it to about 57.00 and it was quite a slow turn so quite easy to catch.
I have to be pretty certain it has not opened as an OD/OTD/ORR - especially focused on this if like yesterday it opened well out of range. I was slightly concerned yesterday as I could see it was base building quite heavily around 56 and thought it might take off against me. This does happen on OD/OTD/ORR days and these are in a minority of trading days so it's an inevitability that I get mullered on days like this.
I am trying to get in within 4 ticks of the high. I will not get in more than 8 ticks away from the high unless it is a very fast moving market and then I may consider it.
The level of confirmation I need is determined by how price reacts at the extreme. If nobody wants to trade up at those prices, it tends to be a more relaxed turn. If people do want to trade and it is supply/demand imbalance then the turn is usually quite sharp. Both require watching T&S to determine which one it could be. Oddly yesterday was a good example of a gradual shift in a relatively high S/D imbalance which is the exception IMO rather than the rule.
That is about the long and short of it amigo.
These are general guidelines (note, not rules):
The weakness has to be exhibited no more than a couple of points from the extreme of the ON range (this could be ON-H or ON-L - I apply it in both directions). Yesterday was a good example - ONH was 54.75, it made it to about 57.00 and it was quite a slow turn so quite easy to catch.
I have to be pretty certain it has not opened as an OD/OTD/ORR - especially focused on this if like yesterday it opened well out of range. I was slightly concerned yesterday as I could see it was base building quite heavily around 56 and thought it might take off against me. This does happen on OD/OTD/ORR days and these are in a minority of trading days so it's an inevitability that I get mullered on days like this.
I am trying to get in within 4 ticks of the high. I will not get in more than 8 ticks away from the high unless it is a very fast moving market and then I may consider it.
The level of confirmation I need is determined by how price reacts at the extreme. If nobody wants to trade up at those prices, it tends to be a more relaxed turn. If people do want to trade and it is supply/demand imbalance then the turn is usually quite sharp. Both require watching T&S to determine which one it could be. Oddly yesterday was a good example of a gradual shift in a relatively high S/D imbalance which is the exception IMO rather than the rule.
That is about the long and short of it amigo.
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Ritika Sharma
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The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 22.13 points, or 1.65 percent, at 1,360.02.
robster970
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I have to ask this. As we actively trade the index cash and futures markets, why do you post up where it closed?
If you want to chat, just chat.......
