Profit / Loss Analysis
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💡LUX Brief Euro Dollar update
Euro Dollar (as I wrote in the previous post), broke through the marker level 0.98750 this week and is confidently holding above the MACD line on the four-hour chart. This week's high is 0.99000 and the level I indicated earlier at 0.99250 has not yet been reached. Therefore, in the short term, I can sum up the moderate probability of further growth. But at the same time, it is worth to note that the market is in a correctional channel and its expansion in case of growth to 1.0000 is still unconfirmed. On the hourly chart, the MACD indicated a decline, with a clear divergence. The 4-hour MACD is also close to crossing the signal line and divergence. Therefore, a continuation of the narrowing correction at the moment is more likely than expansion and growth to 1.000 and above.
Euro Dollar (as I wrote in the previous post), broke through the marker level 0.98750 this week and is confidently holding above the MACD line on the four-hour chart. This week's high is 0.99000 and the level I indicated earlier at 0.99250 has not yet been reached. Therefore, in the short term, I can sum up the moderate probability of further growth. But at the same time, it is worth to note that the market is in a correctional channel and its expansion in case of growth to 1.0000 is still unconfirmed. On the hourly chart, the MACD indicated a decline, with a clear divergence. The 4-hour MACD is also close to crossing the signal line and divergence. Therefore, a continuation of the narrowing correction at the moment is more likely than expansion and growth to 1.000 and above.
Marcellus8610
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Thank you. I'm a trader, fund manager and trading system developer,
And you?
Marcellus8610
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The option to expand the correctional channel was justified and the price confidently passed the key level of 1.0000. On the daily chart, I see a 100 EMA at 1.01050 which could be the top of this momentum. Its further penetration will mean striving for the next target of 1.0200, which is the high of September. The probability of growth is also supported by the MACD local convergence on the current correction.
Marcellus8610
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💡 LUX update analytics EUR/USD
As I showed in the replied post, EMA 100 has become the top level for the current corrective trend and now its frames are determined. There is a decline inside this channel and the key support level will be 0.98750, which just coincides with the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart. This support area also includes the EMA 100 level, the line of which is at 0.98650. A short-term fall within the trend will be a temporary correction and further long-term growth is highly possible with EMA 100 passing to a higher point 1.0200, which I mentioned about.
Marcellus8610
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💡 LUX update analysis EUR/USD
The accurate forecast last week came true 😎 and the price fell to the key level 0.98750, where the EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines are now located on the four-hour chart.
A clear channel is forming on the daily chart and today the price was at 0.9948, but now remains below the EMA 100 0.99365 on the hourly chart. This level will be a marker for further growth. The MACD signal on the hourly chart is quite clear, as is the fact that the EMA 200 is broken. But at the same time, in the longer term, there are no such confident indicators yet. The MACD on the 4-hour chart is just approaching the signal line crossover. I think it's too early to talk about a strong bullish position, because the market can still make several attempts to go below 0.98700 and consolidate in the trend channel support area near the level of 0.98300.
Marcellus8610
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This is also the right position, I support it. I work on my mistakes and try not to fall into the abyss of greed between striving for excellence and losing control of the market.
Marcellus8610
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EUR/USD trend channel is not broken and the market activity over the past 2 days just confirmed my forecast and even exceeded my expectations. Thus, the price fell to 0.97300, and after a short-term consolidation, returned to the trend channel.
At the moment, the EMA 100 and EMA 200 levels on the four-hour chart are the key resistance levels at 0.98600 and 0.98700. At the same time, the EMA 200 level on the hourly chart also placed in this area, and the EMA 100 has already been passed at the price of 0.98370. Moreover, the MACD indicator after a strong impulse signals further growth, this can be concluded after the crossing of the signal line.
On the daily chart, there is a convergence with the current correction of the main downtrend, which in turn is in a weak divergence from the MACD.
I can sum up that the growth potential is quite high. But will it be in the near future, in my opinion no. In the near term, I see the possibility of a decline from EMA 100 and EMA 200 levels to ones with lower pressure at 0.98300 and 0.98100, and there remains the possibility of consolidation and the formation of a narrowing correction. Of course, the breakout of the resistance level of EMA 100 and EMA 200 is a marker event for further growth and continuation of movement according to the current corrective trend on the four-hour chart.
Kaldir
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I'm looking for investment opportunities. Trading is not mine. What is the profit from your system?
Marcellus8610
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Continuing the chain of posts about the Euro Dollar.
If you read the title of the previous post: "EUR/USD will try to continue rising after a short-term correction" then this would already be enough to use in trading. Fed and ECB, do you follow my blog? The pair fell to 0.99350, which is lower than I predicted (1.0000). After that, the market turned around and started a strong impulse growth and breaking through the resistance of 1.00930, it reached the level of my forecast of 1.0200. But the market did not stop there, so now we see that it is moving steadily towards the target of 1.0380 EMA 200 on the daily chart, and I believe that this level will be reached during the current wave of growth or during the final third wave that will follow after the correction. I suppose that the historical resistance levels of 1.03230 and 1.03670 may be the final point for the current impulse and the beginning of a short-term correction.
The MACD signals on four hours chart has strong buy direction as well as on Daily chart. The hourly chart MACD indicator shows not so confident buy signal, with a slight divergence and RSI in overbought area. It means that the market is ready for short term correction decline.
If you read the title of the previous post: "EUR/USD will try to continue rising after a short-term correction" then this would already be enough to use in trading. Fed and ECB, do you follow my blog? The pair fell to 0.99350, which is lower than I predicted (1.0000). After that, the market turned around and started a strong impulse growth and breaking through the resistance of 1.00930, it reached the level of my forecast of 1.0200. But the market did not stop there, so now we see that it is moving steadily towards the target of 1.0380 EMA 200 on the daily chart, and I believe that this level will be reached during the current wave of growth or during the final third wave that will follow after the correction. I suppose that the historical resistance levels of 1.03230 and 1.03670 may be the final point for the current impulse and the beginning of a short-term correction.
The MACD signals on four hours chart has strong buy direction as well as on Daily chart. The hourly chart MACD indicator shows not so confident buy signal, with a slight divergence and RSI in overbought area. It means that the market is ready for short term correction decline.
Marcellus8610
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💡LUX trading analysis
The first eur/usd and gbp/jpy trades are unprofitable, because I mistakenly took the breakout of the key marker level of 1.03880 on the EUR/USD as a buy signal. The breaking through this level turned out to be false, and the trade was closed by stop loss.
GBP/JPY reached the level of EMA 100 on the hourly chart and EMA 200 on the thirty-minute chart. Given the situation on the four-hour chart and the MACD divergence, I decided to sell. This is a hasty decision that did not take into account the possibility of an extension of the corrective trend on the four-hour chart to the EMA 100 level.
After the mistakes analysis was done, I analyzed the Euro Dollar market in depth, and a short analysis was published on telegram channel. A few minutes later, I received a confirmation of a sell signal and opened a trade. Further it was closed on a take profit level and covered the loss.
The first eur/usd and gbp/jpy trades are unprofitable, because I mistakenly took the breakout of the key marker level of 1.03880 on the EUR/USD as a buy signal. The breaking through this level turned out to be false, and the trade was closed by stop loss.
GBP/JPY reached the level of EMA 100 on the hourly chart and EMA 200 on the thirty-minute chart. Given the situation on the four-hour chart and the MACD divergence, I decided to sell. This is a hasty decision that did not take into account the possibility of an extension of the corrective trend on the four-hour chart to the EMA 100 level.
After the mistakes analysis was done, I analyzed the Euro Dollar market in depth, and a short analysis was published on telegram channel. A few minutes later, I received a confirmation of a sell signal and opened a trade. Further it was closed on a take profit level and covered the loss.
Marcellus8610
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Last time we discussed that the Euro/Dollar could fall within the current uptrend on the four-hour chart, and I also suggested that a correction might be forming.
At this stage, the correction really forms a triangular area, within which fluctuations occur. Moreover, this pattern can be expanded to a rectangular area in case of a decline below 1.03300 and thus form a horizontal corrective trend with support at 1.02740 or below 1.02230. Level 1.03460 ЕМА 200 on the hourly chart will be a marker level and a preliminary sell signal. This signal is likely to be confirmed by the MACD crossing the signal line on the hourly timeframe.
But further, I would also like to consider a more interesting but not yet confirmed variant of the correction formation with a subsequent rise above the daily EMA 200, to a key level of 1.04870. It has already been reached twice within this correction and is a key and marker level for further growth to 1.0600 – 1.0630. Growth inside the triangular correction can be signaled by another breakout of the daily EMA 200.
I also want to pay attention to the daily MACD, which now indicates a weak sell signal. This could mean a decline in the long term. In addition, the MACD divergence on the 4-hour chart, where the correction diverges from the descending MACD, is hinting at a fall.
At this stage, the correction really forms a triangular area, within which fluctuations occur. Moreover, this pattern can be expanded to a rectangular area in case of a decline below 1.03300 and thus form a horizontal corrective trend with support at 1.02740 or below 1.02230. Level 1.03460 ЕМА 200 on the hourly chart will be a marker level and a preliminary sell signal. This signal is likely to be confirmed by the MACD crossing the signal line on the hourly timeframe.
But further, I would also like to consider a more interesting but not yet confirmed variant of the correction formation with a subsequent rise above the daily EMA 200, to a key level of 1.04870. It has already been reached twice within this correction and is a key and marker level for further growth to 1.0600 – 1.0630. Growth inside the triangular correction can be signaled by another breakout of the daily EMA 200.
I also want to pay attention to the daily MACD, which now indicates a weak sell signal. This could mean a decline in the long term. In addition, the MACD divergence on the 4-hour chart, where the correction diverges from the descending MACD, is hinting at a fall.
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Marcellus8610
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In a previous post I wrote that there are some preconditions for a further fall as part of the formation of a rectangular correction. This analysis was not 100% accurate, but there was still a drop as I said according to the 1.03460 marker level and MACD data that preceded the decline to 1.02900, almost touching the EMA 100 on the 4 hour chart.
But at the same time, I also mentioned an interesting growth option and focused on it. I said that breaking through the EMA level of 200 daily will signal growth within the correction. Also, I mentioned the 1.04870 level as a marker for further growth, with the possibility of reaching 1.06000. As you can see, this is what happened.
For now, exactly 1.06000 will become the key resistance for further growth to 1.06300 and even the resistance area of 1.07800 in the long term. And on the daily chart, the situation with breaking through the EMA looks quite convincing.
But it’s also important to remember that confirming indicators can make a big difference. So, with each new top of the current trend on the four-hour chart, the MACD divergence is getting stronger, as well as the MACD divergence on the daily chart. This means that the price may fall even now in case of breaking through the support of 1.04460, the EMA 100 level on the four-hour chart, which coincides with the daily EMA 200 at 1.03900 and slide to EMA 200 and the support level of 1.02230.
But at the same time, I also mentioned an interesting growth option and focused on it. I said that breaking through the EMA level of 200 daily will signal growth within the correction. Also, I mentioned the 1.04870 level as a marker for further growth, with the possibility of reaching 1.06000. As you can see, this is what happened.
For now, exactly 1.06000 will become the key resistance for further growth to 1.06300 and even the resistance area of 1.07800 in the long term. And on the daily chart, the situation with breaking through the EMA looks quite convincing.
But it’s also important to remember that confirming indicators can make a big difference. So, with each new top of the current trend on the four-hour chart, the MACD divergence is getting stronger, as well as the MACD divergence on the daily chart. This means that the price may fall even now in case of breaking through the support of 1.04460, the EMA 100 level on the four-hour chart, which coincides with the daily EMA 200 at 1.03900 and slide to EMA 200 and the support level of 1.02230.
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Marcellus8610
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Euro Dollar significantly narrowed the area of fluctuations this week under the pressure of the 1.0600 level, which has already been reached several times but has not been passed. This may indicate that a fall is still more likely at this stage than breaking through the key level of 1.0600. Nevertheless, such a possibility should not be excluded even after a short-term fall, because the uptrend has not yet been broken and can be extended.
On the hourly chart, the EMA levels are very close to the price and will be markers of further decline. Crossing of EMA 100 1.05310 will be the primary signal, while EMA 200 1.05050 will be the key level to confirm the fall. If the price falls below 1.05000 and consolidates below this support area, then I consider this a signal to fall to EMA 100 on the four-hour chart 1.04450, which is also the support area of the current uptrend. The next levels are the 4-hour EMA 200 at 1.03100 and key support at 1.02230.
As confirmation of a possible fall, I would like to note the divergence of the four-hour MACD, and the weak, so far, the primary signal (the signal line crossing) on the daily MACD.
On the hourly chart, the EMA levels are very close to the price and will be markers of further decline. Crossing of EMA 100 1.05310 will be the primary signal, while EMA 200 1.05050 will be the key level to confirm the fall. If the price falls below 1.05000 and consolidates below this support area, then I consider this a signal to fall to EMA 100 on the four-hour chart 1.04450, which is also the support area of the current uptrend. The next levels are the 4-hour EMA 200 at 1.03100 and key support at 1.02230.
As confirmation of a possible fall, I would like to note the divergence of the four-hour MACD, and the weak, so far, the primary signal (the signal line crossing) on the daily MACD.
Marcellus8610
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December is almost in the middle and the trading results show that this year has been really successful for LUX.
Fact 1:
This is the end of the year and I will publish the annual results later, but now I can only hint to those who do not follow myfxbook that the annual profit target is 136% completed. That is, LUX has exceeded expectations. This is a strong motivation 📈
Fact 2:
GBPJPY trade (December 9) was in the top 3 best trades by profitability 💰
Fact 1:
This is the end of the year and I will publish the annual results later, but now I can only hint to those who do not follow myfxbook that the annual profit target is 136% completed. That is, LUX has exceeded expectations. This is a strong motivation 📈
Fact 2:
GBPJPY trade (December 9) was in the top 3 best trades by profitability 💰
Marcellus8610
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Euro Dollar continues to move according to the trend, and the scenario of breaking through the 1.0600 level and exiting the triangular correction was justified. The upside move in the current trend continues despite an extended divergence from the MACD on the 4-hour chart. There is also a clear divergence on the daily MACD, which means a possible trend reversal.
After reaching the level of 1.07360, the maximum since June of this year, the price started to move within a new triangular correction, in which the level of 1.0600 is a support area. The formation of this correction will probably be associated with a short-term decline to 1.05800 ЕМА 200 hourly and in case of breaking through this level, the next key support level will be the area of support for the trend and four-hour ЕМА 100 at the level of 1.05200. This will become a marker indicator for a further fall and breaking of the current trend with possible targets at 1.04450 and the four-hour EMA 200 area at 1.03700.
For further growth, within the trend, the price must pass through 1.06150 EMA 100 hours and a key level of 1.06500 for growth to 1.06930 and above.
After reaching the level of 1.07360, the maximum since June of this year, the price started to move within a new triangular correction, in which the level of 1.0600 is a support area. The formation of this correction will probably be associated with a short-term decline to 1.05800 ЕМА 200 hourly and in case of breaking through this level, the next key support level will be the area of support for the trend and four-hour ЕМА 100 at the level of 1.05200. This will become a marker indicator for a further fall and breaking of the current trend with possible targets at 1.04450 and the four-hour EMA 200 area at 1.03700.
For further growth, within the trend, the price must pass through 1.06150 EMA 100 hours and a key level of 1.06500 for growth to 1.06930 and above.
Marcellus8610
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💡LUX analysis update
Euro Dollar continued to move in a horizontal trend instead of forming a triangle, as I expected. However, the probability of falling and breaking the current uptrend remains high and I believe that next week it is possible to break through 1.05500 four-hour EMA 100 and fall to EMA 200 1.04280, which is located close to EMA 200 daily at 1.04150. The MACD divergence on the 4-hour and daily charts continues to signal further decline.
In order to assess the possible options and risks, I want to return to the uptrend and the option of its development. In order for further growth to be possible, it is necessary to pass through the resistance level 1.06570 and the key level 1.06930.
But even in the case of a short-term growth, I believe that the divergence will not be violated and a fall to the mentioned targets will follow.
Euro Dollar continued to move in a horizontal trend instead of forming a triangle, as I expected. However, the probability of falling and breaking the current uptrend remains high and I believe that next week it is possible to break through 1.05500 four-hour EMA 100 and fall to EMA 200 1.04280, which is located close to EMA 200 daily at 1.04150. The MACD divergence on the 4-hour and daily charts continues to signal further decline.
In order to assess the possible options and risks, I want to return to the uptrend and the option of its development. In order for further growth to be possible, it is necessary to pass through the resistance level 1.06570 and the key level 1.06930.
But even in the case of a short-term growth, I believe that the divergence will not be violated and a fall to the mentioned targets will follow.
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