Marcellus8610
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Profit / Loss Analysis
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Marcellus8610
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Today I will analyze the trade with the highest profitability in my account. It was made on February 10 on pound yen pair and reached to 75.5 points. This is not the highest number of points per trade in my account, but due to the lot, it was a record profit.
The MACD indicators on the 30 minute and hour charts showed a buy signal, while the general trend direction on the four hour chart was consistent with this data, but the MACD just started to cross the signal line. The position of the chart above the EMA 200 and 100 lines also indicated the continuation of the uptrend. I set my take profit below the key resistance level of 157.700 and the trade was closed at 157.435, although I could have taken more profit if I believed the trend will expand and reach 158.0.
I was too cautious in this situation, but nevertheless, I completed the trading task and made a profit.
The MACD indicators on the 30 minute and hour charts showed a buy signal, while the general trend direction on the four hour chart was consistent with this data, but the MACD just started to cross the signal line. The position of the chart above the EMA 200 and 100 lines also indicated the continuation of the uptrend. I set my take profit below the key resistance level of 157.700 and the trade was closed at 157.435, although I could have taken more profit if I believed the trend will expand and reach 158.0.
I was too cautious in this situation, but nevertheless, I completed the trading task and made a profit.
Of course hope you continue on and give some more insights
Marcellus8610
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Trading Talks EUR/JPY April 13
The position of the euro yen today creates an opportunity to sell within the current correction.The 30 minute EMA 100 is now trying to keep pressure on the 136.100 level. And there is a prospect of maintaining this pressure and even a decline to 135.500, where the 200 EMA is located on the hourly chart. Further formation of a correction is possible when moving below 135.500, to the borders of the expected rectangle 134.300 – 134.100 It is still too early to talk about breaking through the correction for the further upward impulse, which is clearly pronounced on the daily timeframe. I believe that the correction is not yet complete.
Confirmatory indicator MACD on the four-hour chart shows a signal of further decline.
But nevertheless, I consider growth above 137.150 as a prerequisite for further growth with breaking through the level of 137.500.
Marcellus8610
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Update:
my analysis for euro yen is partially implemented.
A further fall back to 135.500 could provide a break lower to 134.300.
As before, I consider growth above 137.150 as a prerequisite for further growth with breaking through the level of 137.500.
ukstockbroke
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Nice thread. I’m curious how reliable you find the macd, imo it’s a lagging indicator but your doing well with it.
Marcellus8610
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The situation on the euro franc pair looks like a turning point.
The line of the thread, (draw it through the point of the previous correction), has lost its support and the channel is no longer holding back the price. MACD indicates that the signal line is crossed in the downward direction, which also indicates a possible continuation of the fall.
But there is still a key 50% retracement level ahead, which coincides with the 100 EMA on the 4-hour chart. In addition, the EMA 200 is already providing support.
Judging by the fact that the RSI has not yet reached oversold, the movement is not over yet.
The line of the thread, (draw it through the point of the previous correction), has lost its support and the channel is no longer holding back the price. MACD indicates that the signal line is crossed in the downward direction, which also indicates a possible continuation of the fall.
But there is still a key 50% retracement level ahead, which coincides with the 100 EMA on the 4-hour chart. In addition, the EMA 200 is already providing support.
Judging by the fact that the RSI has not yet reached oversold, the movement is not over yet.
Marcellus8610
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Yes, this indicator does not show the future, but it allows me to more clearly understand the specifics of the market behavior (its tendency). The divergence, convergence and position of the signal line allows me to get the necessary confirmations, as well as possible movement options.
Marcellus8610
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The euro yen trade was the final one this month and I have a few days to rest.
The current month was quite active (8 trades, 62% win rate) and thanks to the risk management algorithm, I was able to achieve the trading plan completion.
Monthly target 12% achieved (12.89%)
Weekly Target 3% achieved (4.24%)
The current month was quite active (8 trades, 62% win rate) and thanks to the risk management algorithm, I was able to achieve the trading plan completion.
Monthly target 12% achieved (12.89%)
Weekly Target 3% achieved (4.24%)
Resolve
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The losses that we are getting from our trades needs to remain under control.
go back to your demo trading
Marcellus8610
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The previous forecast of the euro franc downtrend was correct. The currency pair really lost the support of the channel and continued its fall.
Now I propose to look at the situation more broadly. It should be important that in the higher term, an area of amplitude narrowing has been formed. This is clearly visible on the daily chart. There are several key support levels that will significantly prevent a fall below 1.02, 1.01, 1.00.
In turn, the key resistance at 1.034 and EMA 100 is currently the most likely high of the current local direction.
The main trend that can be seen on the weekly chart is downward. Based on this, it is worth counting on updating the minimum, and falling to the seven-year mark, which was reached back in 2015 at a price of 0.965. But this is a long-term option in which the Euro loses its strength above the franc.
A more positive temporary option for the euro would be the beginning of this trend correction and a return to the level of 1.046, where EMA 200 is located and growth to 1.06
Now I propose to look at the situation more broadly. It should be important that in the higher term, an area of amplitude narrowing has been formed. This is clearly visible on the daily chart. There are several key support levels that will significantly prevent a fall below 1.02, 1.01, 1.00.
In turn, the key resistance at 1.034 and EMA 100 is currently the most likely high of the current local direction.
The main trend that can be seen on the weekly chart is downward. Based on this, it is worth counting on updating the minimum, and falling to the seven-year mark, which was reached back in 2015 at a price of 0.965. But this is a long-term option in which the Euro loses its strength above the franc.
A more positive temporary option for the euro would be the beginning of this trend correction and a return to the level of 1.046, where EMA 200 is located and growth to 1.06
Marcellus8610
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The positive part of my prev. Euro analysis has been fulfilled and the Euro Franc has now reached 1.05 where it met the EMA 200 on the daily chart. I’m looking at the next key resistance at 1.06, where the pair was last time back in February. The current price is 1.047 that is about 79% of the local Feb decline. But I also want to note that the higher trend is downward and this is clearly visible on the weekly chart. Therefore, the current growth is probably just a correction, although the MACD signals a buy opportunity. If 1.06 is passed within this trend, I will expand the options up to a possible increase to the key resistances of 1.07 and 1.09.
The nearest support is at 1.0401, so there is a possibility of a short-term price decline, especially since the four-hour MACD has turned into a sell signal.
Marcellus8610
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Euro franc updates
The key support at 1.041 may become the foundation for the formation of the next impulse. EMA 200 is still standing and resisting, although I would highlight 1.0505 as a more important key level. This means that the formation of a corrective or horizontal movement will follow further, after which further growth is possible, up to 1.0608 and an important level 1.0680, which can open the way to 1.0820. But it's still too early to talk about high levels before 1.0608 is reached.
During the current correction, it is possible to fall to 1.0366 last week's level and form a horizontal channel.
The key support at 1.041 may become the foundation for the formation of the next impulse. EMA 200 is still standing and resisting, although I would highlight 1.0505 as a more important key level. This means that the formation of a corrective or horizontal movement will follow further, after which further growth is possible, up to 1.0608 and an important level 1.0680, which can open the way to 1.0820. But it's still too early to talk about high levels before 1.0608 is reached.
During the current correction, it is possible to fall to 1.0366 last week's level and form a horizontal channel.
Marcellus8610
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The pound dollar trade analysis.
At the request of my followers, I am posting a brief analysis of my decision on the recent pound dollar trade May 13.
1.21809 is opening price near the key support level at 1.2173, it can be visible on 15 minutes. The currency pair started a consolidation, and despite the downtrend, I traded within the horizontal movement, in the short term.
The global trend is indeed downward, but with a clear divergence on the four hours MACD, so even in the longer term, it was possible to hold the trade until May 18th.
The close was at 1.22114 on a take profit level, which was set based on the EMA 100 level on the fifteen minute chart.
At the request of my followers, I am posting a brief analysis of my decision on the recent pound dollar trade May 13.
1.21809 is opening price near the key support level at 1.2173, it can be visible on 15 minutes. The currency pair started a consolidation, and despite the downtrend, I traded within the horizontal movement, in the short term.
The global trend is indeed downward, but with a clear divergence on the four hours MACD, so even in the longer term, it was possible to hold the trade until May 18th.
The close was at 1.22114 on a take profit level, which was set based on the EMA 100 level on the fifteen minute chart.
Marcellus8610
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Analysis of the mistake on July 12 Dollar Yen buy trade.
After a short-term decline on the 30-minute chart, I saw the possibility of a narrowing correction and further growth in line with the main trend. I planned to trade inside the correction and in case of breaking through its borders and the top of 137.750, hold the trade for maximum profit until the start of a new correction. Stop loss was set at 136.510, which was below the key level of 136.550. Thus, I saved trade against a trend reversal.
My very first mistake is the preference for indicator signals on smaller timeframes. My attention was focused on 30 minutes, while at 4 hours there was no clear position of indicators to buy, and on the hourly chart, there was a MACD in the sell at all.
The second mistake, which is quite controversial is the stop loss (usually controversial topic).
There are several options that could happen:
1. There is no stop loss, the trader chooses to hold the trade or not. There is a chance to get out of losses by showing patience and self-confidence and also chance to increase losses and .
2. There is a stop loss, but the trader sees that the market has reversed and closes the deal prematurely, without waiting for the stop loss, showing caution and self-confidence. (The one I chose)
3. There is a stop-loss, the trader waits until the last, until the trade reaches it or goes into profit. The trader shows confidence and patience.
On the chart, you can see that the touch of the stop-loss level was not clear and the market immediately reversed. This also leads to the conclusion that the stop-loss level is chosen with a slight inaccuracy. So setting a proper stop loss and holding the position without an early exit could have been profitable for me in the longer term, as you can see the market is already far higher.
In a conclusion I woulf like to note that even small inaccuracies can lead to losses, as well as the trader's behavior and confidence. It is important to find a balance between caution and confidence.
In my case, I made a choice in favor of caution, but further I worked through the mistakes and in the next trades I managed to achieve record high results.
Any trade, regardless of profit amount, brings you closer to success, because the most important thing is experience.
After a short-term decline on the 30-minute chart, I saw the possibility of a narrowing correction and further growth in line with the main trend. I planned to trade inside the correction and in case of breaking through its borders and the top of 137.750, hold the trade for maximum profit until the start of a new correction. Stop loss was set at 136.510, which was below the key level of 136.550. Thus, I saved trade against a trend reversal.
My very first mistake is the preference for indicator signals on smaller timeframes. My attention was focused on 30 minutes, while at 4 hours there was no clear position of indicators to buy, and on the hourly chart, there was a MACD in the sell at all.
The second mistake, which is quite controversial is the stop loss (usually controversial topic).
There are several options that could happen:
1. There is no stop loss, the trader chooses to hold the trade or not. There is a chance to get out of losses by showing patience and self-confidence and also chance to increase losses and .
2. There is a stop loss, but the trader sees that the market has reversed and closes the deal prematurely, without waiting for the stop loss, showing caution and self-confidence. (The one I chose)
3. There is a stop-loss, the trader waits until the last, until the trade reaches it or goes into profit. The trader shows confidence and patience.
On the chart, you can see that the touch of the stop-loss level was not clear and the market immediately reversed. This also leads to the conclusion that the stop-loss level is chosen with a slight inaccuracy. So setting a proper stop loss and holding the position without an early exit could have been profitable for me in the longer term, as you can see the market is already far higher.
In a conclusion I woulf like to note that even small inaccuracies can lead to losses, as well as the trader's behavior and confidence. It is important to find a balance between caution and confidence.
In my case, I made a choice in favor of caution, but further I worked through the mistakes and in the next trades I managed to achieve record high results.
Any trade, regardless of profit amount, brings you closer to success, because the most important thing is experience.
Chart_Hopper
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Can sometimes be guilty if your first mistake as well. I can get tunnel vision on the lower time frames and fail to look at the bigger picture forming on the higher time frames and then get slapped.
Marcellus8610
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I can't say that I don't look at higher timeframes. Rather, this time I gave preference to signals on a shorter term, although there were no strong preconditions for this.
But mistakes is a normal process for the trader, by tiredness, inattention or other factors. So after the analysis, I know where there is a weak spot and I will close it.
Marcellus8610
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July showed me some important points to work on and I will make a post about it at the beginning of August, because post-trading analysis is very important for me and is a base process in improving a trading system.
The July result is 7.8%, which is certainly a natural recession after a long three-month period with an average profitability of 13%.
However, this month there were quite huge trades. So, one of the trades got into the top 6 by growth percentage per trade (10.74%)
The July result is 7.8%, which is certainly a natural recession after a long three-month period with an average profitability of 13%.
However, this month there were quite huge trades. So, one of the trades got into the top 6 by growth percentage per trade (10.74%)
Marcellus8610
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Trading profit / loss analysis of 4 latest trades
Analysing trades over the past week has shown some interesting facts that I would like to share. These trades showed the imperfection of the trading system, and also, will allow me to continue working on the mistakes that I managed to find.
The list of trades:
eur/usd sell trade was closed manually, at a price 1.01702.
Honestly, I regret that I closed the trade too early, because the EMA 100 and EMA 200 clearly showed a further fall, but I was afraid of a false break, as well as the impact of key support 1.01600 (which was also broken soon) and did not risk the funds that I have already been obtained. The opening of the trade was confirmed clearly according to the MACD data on the four-hour and hourly charts.
Analysing trades over the past week has shown some interesting facts that I would like to share. These trades showed the imperfection of the trading system, and also, will allow me to continue working on the mistakes that I managed to find.
The list of trades:
- Euro Franc (buy 0.98583)
- Pound Yen (buy 164.677)
- New Zealand dollar US dollar (sell 0.62533)
- Euro Dollar (sell 1.02183)
eur/usd sell trade was closed manually, at a price 1.01702.
Honestly, I regret that I closed the trade too early, because the EMA 100 and EMA 200 clearly showed a further fall, but I was afraid of a false break, as well as the impact of key support 1.01600 (which was also broken soon) and did not risk the funds that I have already been obtained. The opening of the trade was confirmed clearly according to the MACD data on the four-hour and hourly charts.
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