Profit / Loss Analysis

[Marcellus8610]

I would like to make a few posts with a short analysis of two trades that were the most interesting of the recent ones.
Overview data:
5 trades for the period from April 19 to April 24.
4 trades out of 5 are profitable and closed at the take profit.
1 losing trade was closed by stop loss.
Fully completed trading plan for the week and for the month: April profitability is 9.67%.

 

[Marcellus8610]

The GBP/JPY trade is undistinguished according to the open and close. A fairly clear MACD signal and a decline below the key level of 167.00 was confirmed by an additional crossing of the EMA lines, in addition, a clear formation of a correction on the uptrend was an important decision-making factor. This trade is important because it shows the moment of endurance and patience. On the chart, I marked 3 moments during which the price went into the loss zone, but nevertheless, trading according to my strategy and plan, I decided to wait further and, as a result, made a profit with a take profit. Of course, after the MACD 200 line was passed on short timeframes, and the EMA 100 line was crossed on the hourly chart, I was already sure that the temporary market return and a small drawdown would be insignificant. The MACD signal was quite clear, with a passing to the zone of negative values on the hourly chart, and this confirmed my confidence. The take profit level was set above the key level of 166.500 influence area.

 

[Marcellus8610]

The USD/JPY trade is interesting as an example of analysing possible movement scenarios and strictly following the established plan and trading system. The trade was opened according to the uptrend, after unsuccessful attempts to break through the channel support area, as well as EMA 200 on the hourly chart. At the same time, I saw that the levels of 134.00 and 133.900 will provide support.
However, after the opening, the market immediately went down, trying to create a false breakout of the EMA 200. I was ready to take a loss if I received information about a possible deep fall and trend break, but instead, the MACD showed divergence on short-term timeframes , and on the hourly chart, the MACD signal line was not crossed confidently, thus allowing my to wait.
Despite the tense period after the open, my patience was rewarded as the market impulsively continued to move with the trend and returned to the area above the EMA lines on the hourly chart. The market confirmed quite strong growth markers, so the following decline was not so important, I saw that the market would return to 134.400 – 134.500 and therefore I set the take profit below the top level to be sure that the trade would be closed with a profit.

 

[Marcellus8610]

The beginning of the new month remains without trading activity on LUX PAMM due to extreme caution associated with the current activity on the market. However, now I see a fairly clear picture on the Euro Dollar, which will quite possibly soon be turned into trading activity.

Euro Dollar during April tried to overcome some resistance zone around 1.10700 and it started to work out after a sharp jump was made with the top of 1.10965. At the moment, a very weak uptrend has been formed, close to horizontal, and its extension in the current situation is unlikely.
A divergence has formed on the MACD four-hour chart, which is also clearly visible on the daily chart, along with a fairly confident crossing of the signal line.
The recent drop proved that the 100 EMA level on the 4-hour chart would not provide significant support in the event of a decline. But I would pay attention to the EMA 200 level, the line is at 1.09300 now. I will consider the support at 1.09430 as a marker level and a preliminary signal for further decline, and further breaking of the signal level at 1.09300 will probably mean a continuation of the fall to 1.08300.
The confident growth will be possible if the EMA levels of 100 and 200 are confidently crossed again, and then there will be a prospect of a second attempt to reach and overcome the level of 1.10950 formed in May

 

[Marcellus8610]

💡LUX trading results

EUR/USD trade opens trading plan this month. The trade was closed without reaching the take profit level thus, a series of 4 take profits on my account was interrupted, but I will improve the system so that such series are longer and more frequent.

However, it's a profitable trade that generated a 2.48% gain

The trade was immediately closed after there was a possibility of further growth and the beginning of a correction that could reduce profits. I have been careful 🛡, although the market finally reached the required level after a few hours. As I have mentioned, patience is the most important thing in trading and this trade is a great example of the importance.

 

[Marcellus8610]

GBP/JPY is once again reaching the resistance of 172.800 and in my opinion does not have strong priorities for further growth for a while. The current area of resistance puts strong pressure on the market and during May this level was not passed. I will consider this level as a marker and further growth can be considered only after it is broken. However, in the long term (weekly and monthly) MACD and EMA point to buy.
On the short term charts, I see a MACD divergence that formed during a horizontal move along resistance, with a slight bullish incline.
In order to consider further downside, I would take a close look at the hourly chart which indicates MACD sell but the EMAs are still below the price level which provides some support and a fall could be considered if the EMA 100 marker level is passed on the hourly chart (now at 172.015) and further breaking through the EMA 200 line with the prospect of falling to 171.250 (still within the current horizontal trend).
Summing up, I would clarify that the short term hints at a fall following the divergence and the impact of the 172.800 resistance, but the long term, where the monthly chart shows a preliminary MACD buy signal, can still return to a continuous increase, which can be strong enough to reach 175.00.

 

[Marcellus8610]

EUR/USD once again reached 1.10350, which is a key resistance and may be a key level for the formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern. In case of considering the weekly chart as a basis for medium-term analysis, the price reaches the EMA of 200 and does not dare to break through, preparing for a next fall. Support in this case will be the level of 1.09000 and EMA 100 on the weekly chart, which is now at the level of 1.08400.
It is very clear and interesting that the MACD on the weekly chart shows the possibility of falling, as the signal line is crossed and attempts to return above were stopped by the EMA 200 level. This fact makes 1.10700 a very important key level, which will be the primary and basic signal for further growth, in case of breaking higher.
On the four-hour chart, MACD confirms the possibility of further decline, as it forms a divergence, as well as a possible beginning of the line crossing, which is the primary sell signal.

I will consider the probability of falling as high, especially if 1.0900 is broken and the move continues. However, in order to limit possible risks, I advise you to look at the possibility of a temporary horizontal correction with a subsequent break above 1.10700 and 1.11000

 

[Marcellus8610]

Today I opened the EUR/USD trade that was closed with gain of 3.26%, after which the monthly account growth reached 10.72%. There is another week ahead and I am sure that it will also be productive.

Today's trade was entered after a decline below 1.09000, according to the analysis I posted a little earlier, and was closed at the take profit level. I set take profit at 1.08451, according to the analysis, above the key support 1.08400, which has not yet been passed, and the price started a short-term correction. Thus, the daily EMA 100 has not been passed and the probability of the horizontal channel formation has increased.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Euro US Dollar is trying to break below 1.08400 for the third time, which gives reason to consider this level as a key support and the main marker level to determine further fall to EMA 100 and EMA 200 on the daily chart, which are now at 1.08100 and 1.07250. At the same time, the price did cross the EMA lines on the hourly and four-hour charts, and this is the initial sell signal. The MACD on the 4 hour chart provided a very slight divergence which I would not consider a significant buy argument. It is likely that a long-term uptrend is forming on the daily chart at the moment and a further fall as a correction within the channel is a very likely option.
In the short term, I see the hourly MACD giving a buy signal, which could be the start of a rise towards the 200 EMA and 100 EMA on the hourly chart, which are in the 1.08900 and 1.09000 resistance area. In the near future, testing of these levels is possible, but I find further growth unlikely. However, I will keep an eye on the marker level 1.09000, because its break could lead the market to a bullish option, at least with the prospect of 1.09400 and 1.09750

 

[Marcellus8610]

LUX trading results + LUX small trading talks

I would name this week "one hit" right on target. The EUR/USD trade I closed yesterday (watch the video) increased the account balance by 3.12%, and increased the profitability this month to 6.29%.
After the Euro Dollar broke through the weekly EMA 200, the probability of continued growth increased and I was sure that the uptrend would continue. The daily and four-hour MACD moved into the positive area and this is a great confirmation signal for growth.

There is a weak divergence on the MACD so far, but it may become even smaller if the increase continues to the EMA 100 on the monthly chart, which is now at 1.14300. However, the overbought market may lead to a short term correction before the likely resumption of growth. The EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines shows the marker levels of support 1.11100 and 1.10370

 

[Marcellus8610]

Two GBP/USD trades that I opened yesterday were closed today, both at the take profit level. This allowed me to enter positive profitability in August (the month started with a loss of -1.72%), which is currently 1.79%.
I expected that the take profit level would be reached a little earlier. Half an hour after the open, the market really started moving down, but it was not enough to break through the EMA 200 on the 30-minute chart. After 12 hours, the price again reached the EMA level and after a short term horizontal movement, this level was overcome and GBP/USD fell to take profit values of 1.27451 and 1.27433 and is now at the level of 1.27000, which means that further reaching 1.26800 and 1.26180 is possible.

 

[Marcellus8610]

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY trades are closed at the take profit level. Fairly fast trading on the correction after the fall.
Euro Dollar touched the EMA 100 line on the daily chart and formed a slight divergence on the 4-hour chart. If the EMA 100 at 1.09050 is crossed, then a further fall will have a high probability to the level of the EMA 200 on the daily chart 1.08000. But at the moment, the Euro Dollar has begun a correction movement and the probability of the uptrend continuing also remains.

 

[Marcellus8610]

The EUR/USD is reaching the historical key level of 1.06375, which may stop the current decline and become a turning point for a short-term correction. Also, I would like to mention the marker support at 1.07000, which currently has an impact on the market and if the price level falls below it, then a further fall to 1.06375 will be highly likely.
The euro dollar finally broke out of the uptrend, breaking through its support after a short-term rise to 1.09445. The MACD on the daily chart makes it clear that further decline will continue despite the RSI being close to oversold. This and the formed divergence on the hourly chart, may be signals for short-term growth, similar to one that was at the end of August. The estimated level that can be reached during the correction is EMA 200 on the daily chart 1.08000 and also historical 1.08400. However, I consider a return to the trend area to be unlikely and at the moment I expect a continuation of the fall to 1.06375 and further to 1.05300.
In the long term on the weekly chart, the MACD signal and position of the EMA lines, as well as the position of the RSI line, gives reason to believe that we should expect a long term decline.

 

[Marcellus8610]

While the downward trend on the daily chart has finally broken through the support of the upward weekly trend, expanding its possible channel, I propose to consider a more local situation.
The four-hour chart clearly shows a correction that has gone beyond the descending channel. The prospect of a return to the longer-term uptrend remains intact. However, if the marker support level of 1.05300 is broken, the probability of returning to the channel will increase and I will expect a fall to 1.05000 and possibly to 1.04500. The intersection of EMA lines on the daily chart is confirmation of a possible fall. It is also worth noting that on the four-hour MACD shows a strong selling trend, while moving into the area of negative values.
In addition to the fact that I am considering the possibility of a decline within the trend, I would like to mention the fact that the daily MACD has a fairly confident growing trend, despite this contradicts the EMA positions. Therefore, I will consider the EMA 100 level 1.05830 on the four-hour chart as a marker for possible growth to the key resistance 1.06375. Moreover, the price level is now close to the correction channel support area and further decline will mean the end of this local correction trend.

 

[Marcellus8610]

My analysis for the EUR/USD came true in the short term and the market really began to rise after passing through the EMA 100 on the four-hour chart at 1.05830. Having reached the level of 1.06375, a false breakout was attempted, which was a rather interesting moment that I closely monitored. And as you can see, two recent trades are profitable, maintaining the trend of stable profits for the 5th month in a row, after a fairly quiet May.
I will publish the next analytics later.

 

[Marcellus8610]

My analysis for the EUR/USD came true in the short term and the market really began to rise after passing through the EMA 100 on the four-hour chart at 1.05830. Having reached the level of 1.06375, a false breakout was attempted, which was a rather interesting moment that I closely monitored. And as you can see, two recent trades are profitable, maintaining the trend of stable profits for the 5th month in a row, after a fairly quiet May.
I will publish the next analytics later.

 

[Marcellus8610]

The EUR/USD pair continues to grow. The resistance level of 1.07000 was very confidently broken with continued growth to 1.07500. The current resistance can be visualized as the EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines on the daily chart. Despite the fact that they have already been passed, for now I would not rule out a possible false breakout. This is evidenced by the weak MACD divergence on the hourly chart and the continued intersection of EMA 100 and EMA 200 in the direction of further decline. That is, I can conclude that in the short term a decline is possible under the influence of resistance levels and also some overbought market conditions after a sharp increase and destruction of the downward trend. But in a four-hour and daily perspective, I see a high probability of reaching the resistance level at the 200 weekly EMA, which is now in the resistance area of 1.08200. This level will later become a marker level for further growth to 1.10000 and 1.11000. If the short-term correction is too deep and creates conditions for selling, then the level of 1.06375 will likely be reached again and will be a marker for a further fall to 1.05300.
Probably today the market will begin to move as part of a short-term drawdown, so I will closely monitor market processes and if the trading conditions and the indicators of the algorithms are appropriate, then I will consider the opportunity to trade on the movements described above.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Let's summarize the results of the first trading month of 2024.

6 trades and all of them are sell.
5 of 6 trades were profitable (83%).
The account growth is 8.78%.
All profitable trades are quite accurate and confident.

Considering that LUX had holidays trading pause in January, I believe that the result is very good and can be characterized as a projection of the work done last year.
LUX starts the year very confidently and precisely.
Detailed trading information is published on myfxbook account page.

 

[Marcellus8610]

Two similar EUR/JPY sell trades will be analysed as one.
The opening was conditioned by the continuation of the correction within the uptrend. The top at 163.460 was identified and then followed by a sharp return to the zone below 163.000, suggesting that continued growth and even a retest of 163.460 would be unlikely. However, there was still the possibility of a narrowing horizontal correction forming, and in this case, in order to prevent losses, I set a stop loss at 163.329 and 163.343.
Further decline was also confirmed by the MACD crossing the signal line on the 15-minute chart, as well as the RSI leaving the oversold zone.
Thus, after a short-term growth, I decided to enter the market and set take profit at the level of 162.759 and 162.726, in the zone of EMA 100 influence, since I considered its penetration as unlikely.
The trades were closed at the take profit level, their duration was a little more than 4 hours and the total balance increase was 1.82%.

 

[Marcellus8610]

EUR/JPY trade analysis which was closed yesterday with a loss of -1.63%.

The trade lasted 3 hours 12 minutes and covered -55.0 pips.
On the daily, four-hour and hourly charts there was a strong MACD signal to continue the fall, while the uptrend channel on the daily chart was previously broken after falling below 161.500 and breaking the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart. Also, the EMA on the hourly and four-hour charts were above the price level, which suggested a further fall possibility.

I set my take profit above the EMA 100 level on the daily chart. The stop loss was set above the four-hour EMA 200 level in case it was broken and to avoid further losses.
Divergence on short-term time frames was not taken into account and in vain. You can see that shortly before the opening, a divergence began to form on the MACD, which eventually ended in growth.

The conclusion that I could draw is that a further fall is not excluded and I may return to selling EUR/JPY later. Also, I would note the importance of considering both long-term and short-term time frames, as this can help you make money and not lose.