patience? no kidding

[Prawnsandwich]

Oh pshaw, two months is a long time my ass. If you're bored go do something fun, if you're swinging you don't exactly have to marry the ticker. One trade is not a big enough sample for these nancy boys to tell you your system is bad.

Trading proper markets like commodities/stocks should increase your trade frequency.

edit: It wasn't a 'wrong' trade, it was a trade his system gave him which he managed according to his rules which is nowhere near a wrong a trade. Every approach will have its inherent variance, the only thing that matters is expectancy, and only you [Chartsy] know that right know, ergo the rest of y'all are talking outta your sphincters.

Well maybe its time to question your system if it only produces one trade / one loser over two months..too much emphasis on sticking to the plan/ system / discipline...if its not working and not profitable then its not working....if its a trend following system there must have been other pairs trending during this period...there must have been other signals....

And besides, with respect, no details were provided of expectancy / profitability of the method.....so you cant jump to conclusions on that OP is trading his plan to a positive expectancy

 

[rawrschach]

I already know that he hasn't done that. He doesn't know the expectanc

look ma, a psychic

so you cant jump to conclusions on that OP is trading his plan to a positive expectancy

I didn't, I said that only he knows. You two, however, think you do know what his expectancy is. Two psychic sphincters in one thread. What're the odds.

 

[Shanghai]

Anyway, as I mentioned, if this is the typical frequency of trades (one every 2 months or so), he would need to have traded this system for around a decade to get a sufficient sample size to judge his expectancy,

I suspect the frequecy of trades would be higher than that generally or he probably wouldn't have started the thread. I would be interested if he could come back and give an indication of the average number of trades the system would usually generate in one year.

 

[Shakone]

lol rawrschach, you don't need to be a psychic to see that he is unlikely to know the expectancy of it. It may be positive or negative I don't know. But it seems pretty clear to me that the OP hasn't traded it sufficiently long to know the expectancy.

As I see it, he is trading for two months and losing. He is trading a system which he doesn't know whether the expectancy is positive or negative. I could be wrong. But I doubt it. Shanghai I think you're right. He probably gets more signals usually.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

look ma, a psychic



I didn't, I said that only he knows. You two, however, think you do know what his expectancy is. Two psychic sphincters in one thread. What're the odds.

Now hold on a minute Mr Sphincter Obsessive....you said :

"edit: It wasn't a 'wrong' trade, it was a trade his system gave him which he managed according to his rules which is nowhere near a wrong a trade."

So what if he managed according to his rules - what if the problem IS his rules......
by your definition no trade can be wrong if managed according to the respective rules..

your assuming that the trade is not wrong because he is trading to his rules which would imply that same rules lead to a positive expectancy (in fairness you did say that this was known to the OP only)........problem is that the rules can be wrong in the first instance....and I would suggest that one trade / one loser over two months based on a trend following system on currency pairs must be flawed...

 

[rawrschach]

nd I would suggest that one trade / one loser over two months based on a trend following system on currency pairs must be flawed...

based on one sample? No.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

based on one sample? No.

Out of all the currency pairs over the last few months, no trend based system entry signals ?

I dont trade FX myself, but from previous painful experience I know if its not working then its not effing working...no point in prolonging the pain and dragging it out...as long as you know you have been sticking to your rules generally (sometimes the rules can be unhelpfully a bit too grey ), then its time to look at something else if your not profitable....

 

[Shakone]

I don't think you understand what I was getting at. Lets give an extreme example.

A trader gets one signal every 10 years. He loses the first two trades. The system, if he lived forever, would turn out to be 75% win, and excellent risk reward, and positive expectancy. However, the trader can never know that it has positive expectancy. His approach is flawed, regardless of whether it turns out to be posotive expectancy or not. Another trader gets one signal every 10 years, and if he could trade it forever, it would turn out to have 25% win, and negative expectancy. Again he will never know this expectancy. There is no difference between the two traders. I am saying, the approach is flawed, and he should find a system with more signals so that he can know whether it works or not.

 

[rawrschach]

And I am saying that you have no basis for saying that it is flawed because 1) you dunno what it is 2) you dunno how many signals he gets on average over a real period 3) you dunno how many signals it will give in the future 4) you dunno how potentially profitable it is.

2 months and one trade are not enough data to judge someone's approach. especially if you don't actually know what it is.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

And I am saying that you have no basis for saying that it is flawed because 1) you dunno what it is 2) you dunno how many signals he gets on average over a real period 3) you dunno how many signals it will give in the future 4) you dunno how potentially profitable it is.

2 months and one trade are not enough data to judge someone's approach. especially if you don't actually know what it is.

Well without knowing the full details he did say it was a currency pair trend following system, and one of the points I have been making is that surely must have been trending currencies over the last few months..(open to correction here, as I know jack**** on fx)....so if there was, then a system which produces only one signal which turns out to be a loser must have problems....

 

[Shanghai]

Have to agree with rawrschach on this one. There just isn't enough information to tell.

My trend system gives on average 3-4 trades per week. However over the past couple of months I have had 3 trades. I can't judge that system on the past 2 months only. It is a comfortably profitable system with a good expectancy.

I have other, shorter term, systems that are doing better right now.

(Also to edit that I know little about currencies also....)

 

[rawrschach]

Well without knowing the full details ... as I know jack**** on fx)

So even though you acknowledge that you know nothing about his trading and nothing about fx you still maintain that based simply on the facts that in 2 months he had one trade and took a loss you can tell whether or not his system is any good?

Pshaw.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

Have to agree with rawrschach on this one. There just isn't enough information to tell.

My trend system gives on average 3-4 trades per week. However over the past couple of months I have had 3 trades. I can't judge that system on the past 2 months only. It is a comfortably profitable system with a good expectancy.

I have other, shorter term, systems that are doing better right now.

(Also to edit that I know little about currencies also....)

To go from 3-4 trades per week to 3 trades in a couple of months is a big variance - what do you trade ?

Anyway, the salient point here is that you're adapting to the changing market by using alternative methods, which is has been my point from the start...you are not just sitting on your hands and relying on your main trend following method and waiting for the market to come to you....

 

[rawrschach]

Well, waiting for the market to come to you is what my advice is, so there.

 

[Shakone]

EurUsd HAS been trending in the past two months. As has GbpUsd and plenty of others.

Yes on one hand you could argue there isn't enough info to tell. On the other hand, sometimes you can read between the lines and tell more information than is written.

I don't believe from what I've read that Chartsy's approach is a sensible one so far. I don't believe he has demo'ed it sufficiently or traded it long enough (say 50 trades approx) to know whether the expectancy is positive or negative. And I recommend he have a rethink. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but i'd rather advise caution, than advise him things are just fine, when to be plain, he has lost over 2 months.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

So even though you acknowledge that you know nothing about his trading and nothing about fx you still maintain that based simply on the facts that in 2 months he had one trade and took a loss you can tell whether or not his system is any good?

Pshaw.

Never said I know nothing about his trading - he told us he used a trend following method on fx..as mentioned on many previous posts - so your first assertion is incorrect..

In relation to fx trading, perhaps someone else can clarify whether there have been trending pairs over the last couple of months..? (I see Shakeone has addressed this)

But ultimately trading is trading, whatever the market, and losing is losing, and one loser / one trade over two months on a trend based system just isnt good enough...as even the OP acknowledged in his original post...

But hey, feel free to encourage the OP to stick to his rules, cos thats the main thing in trading...its all about the discipline....

 

[megamuel]

All I know is, I'd be absolutely gutted if I'd waited 2 months for a trade and lost on it. Surely there is a more effective way of using your capital than being out of the markets for 2 months? How long were you in the trade for chartsy?

 

[arabianights]

Listen to rawrschach bitches, he the ****ing man with the ****ing brain, he knows more than you *****, anyone disagreeing is an idiot, and I know a lot about idiocy

 

[JahDave]

i heard it alllll the time when starting out 'be patient and do the simple things'
''haha, as long as ive got a good method patience duzzin matter'

ive made 1 trade in 2 months, and it was a loser, i am a swing trader but holy **** i'm finding it very boring indeed sitting on the sidelines for weeks, for limits not to be filled etc.

it's actually much more of a drag than it looks,imo

OK, Chartsy I see you started this thread, so here is my advice. If you have a trading system then use it on the 5 minute, 1 hour and day charts. Usually the longer term charts override the shorter term charts. Personally, I trade mostly Fibonacci levels and my method is Elliott Wave theory. Sometimes I trade the 5 minute charts with my methods, but when I do this I use very small stops. The longer time frames I use bigger the stops. I don't know how many times I have been stopped out almost to the exact pip and then a trade would have gone my way for a large profit. That is the time frame. I have a friend on here named Paul that has a thread called some of my trade forecasts. I have a thread here called EUR_USD Elliott Wave. I don't totally explain why I am taking the trades that I do because quite honestly if you look through my entire thread or study Fibonacci levels and Elliott Wave Theory then you will understand my thread. I do try to teach different methods there, but that is another topic. Paul has a killer Support and resistance formula that he posts for free for the daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and decade. If you missed it he will be g;lad to send these to you for free. Anyway, to sum it all up.........It takes hard work to succeed at anything worthwhile in life. Good luck and I will help you in anyway I can if you will work in return.

Regards,
Dave

 

[Splitlink]

i think that's crap advice

It's crap advice if you want to sit around for another few months for one more trade that might be a loser----again.

Personally, I'm patient, but let's not be ridiculous, especially at my time of life.

Do as prawnsandwich says and look at lower time frames.

As a matter of interest. Why was it crap advice?