patience? no kidding

[oildaytrader]

Strange sort of system that keeps Chartsy from profiting from some really good moves over July and August, and gets him into a single trade that he has to exit for a loss. Chartsy hasn't made money on this pair, in fact he has run a single, losing trade. He wasn't trying to sit on the sidelines waiting for increased volumes after the holidays, he has been trying to trade through the summer.

Chartsy might be a good trader, but this isn't good trading. You yourself might be a good trader, but you just haven't read and absorbed his position.

10 0f 40 systems did not make any money for last two years, from 2008 to 2010, they traded losing and making for two years, but no overall profit.

Chartsy might keep on going for another three years, until the queer system restarts making money.

 

[rawrschach]

If you are swing trading you have to account for general conditions...why do you think EU will go down from here?

 

[tomorton]

If you are swing trading you have to account for general conditions...why do you think EU will go down from here?

If you mean this to me, on 12/08, a crude system of mine indicated a reasonable probability of it going down from there, which is what it did. If I had gone short then, the system suggests my best returns come from staying short at this point. If I was not short on 12/08, I would not go short right now, not because the EU might not go lower, it's just that I don't have an entry signal based on either momentum or retracement.

 

[rawrschach]

I meant Chartsy - he's got a limit in at 1.305.

 

[Chartsy]

]Strange sort of system that keeps Chartsy from profiting from some really good moves over July and August[/B], and gets him into a single trade that he has to exit for a loss. Chartsy hasn't made money on this pair, in fact he has run a single, losing trade. He wasn't trying to sit on the sidelines waiting for increased volumes after the holidays, he has been trying to trade through the summer.

Chartsy might be a good trader, but this isn't good trading. You yourself might be a good trader, but you just haven't read and absorbed his position.

i was on demo when the meat of the moves happened, and caught the whole upmove, obviously i went straight to live and then 'added' to it, just got in too late

thats arguable, but for me it was an uptrend, and a dip happened, i buy the dips.

 

[Chartsy]

I meant Chartsy - he's got a limit in at 1.305.

as spitlink says, failed highs and lower lows

 

[Jason101]

I trade the pull back but I wait for the turn.

To elaborate, think you may have jumped the gun, slightly. At first sight it looks like a great trade. If I had seen it I may have been tempted, but I would have broken two of my rules to take it.

I have highlighted the 4h period I think you entered on, with a black box.

I think the pull back went a little to far away from the trend line and on this occasion, with hindsight of course, it may have been better to enter once price had re-joined the channel and taken out the high of the midnight bearish candle (4 candles back). I think you were a little unlucky with this one, although the main trend has been bearish all year now and I wouldn't want to go against that.

If it is so that you are only 16 then all credit to you.

 

[Splitlink]

To elaborate, think you may have jumped the gun, slightly. At first sight it looks like a great trade. If I had seen it I may have been tempted, but I would have broken two of my rules to take it.

I have highlighted the 4h period I think you entered on, with a black box.

I think the pull back went a little to far away from the trend line and on this occasion, with hindsight of course, it may have been better to enter once price had re-joined the channel and taken out the high of the midnight bearish candle (4 candles back). I think you were a little unlucky with this one, although the main trend has been bearish all year now and I wouldn't want to go against that.

If it is so that you are only 16 then all credit to you.

I see that you use averages. I do, too, and a good indication that the price was going down was the return to a falling average. When the price was half-way down your box, it was a signal, to me, that a long position would not have been a good idea. I, probably, would not have waited for the completion.

The problem with my argument, though, is that the fall occurred out of hours for me, on your last bar, and I would not have caught it.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I jumped in this thread a little late, but Prawnsandwich is clicking on all burners. He hit the nail on the head on every post he made on this thread.
Something has to be changed. Look for more pairs, revise the methodology.
My question is how could the euro have been a loser on a long. It has been going up since 1.1875. If you are sing trading you don't wait for it to hit in the upper vicinity to go long. I looked at the pair through the eyes of different methodologies, 123, crossover, EW, etc, etc. All of them would have gotten him in at a lower price.
Chartist, the one thing I may be unaware of, and that is you have been doing well until these past couple of months, and you are looking for answers. That would be a bit of a different story. I had a losing month in Oct. 2007. I thought the world was coming to an end.
One key word I also noticed in different posts was "adaptable". Your methodology needs to be that. Markets trend 30% of the time, and go sideways 70%. A good system should be able to discern the direction the next breakout will be when it is going sideways.

You waited 2 months for one trade, which was a wrong trade. prawnsandwich may have been a bit blunt, but he's not exactly wrong. Not saying you need to drop down a timeframe, but look at other pairs at least. 2 months trading, 100% losers, down x%. It is not that "not many trades=bad method" as you said. It is the fact that you're losing for two months. Trading is about making money, and you're losing for two months. Whether that is one trade or 100. And worse, your system doesn't seem to get many trade signals, so that when you're down x%, it will take months to recover (if you get a winner).

I think it is flawed too. How can you have even demo'ed this? If it is one signal every 2 months, you'd have to demo for about 10 years just to get a significant sample size on which to judge whether it works.

 

[Chartsy]

I jumped in this thread a little late, but Prawnsandwich is clicking on all burners. He hit the nail on the head on every post he made on this thread.
Something has to be changed. Look for more pairs, revise the methodology.
My question is how could the euro have been a loser on a long. It has been going up since 1.1875. If you are sing trading you don't wait for it to hit in the upper vicinity to go long. I looked at the pair through the eyes of different methodologies, 123, crossover, EW, etc, etc. All of them would have gotten him in at a lower price.
Chartist, the one thing I may be unaware of, and that is you have been doing well until these past couple of months, and you are looking for answers. That would be a bit of a different story. I had a losing month in Oct. 2007. I thought the world was coming to an end.
One key word I also noticed in different posts was "adaptable". Your methodology needs to be that. Markets trend 30% of the time, and go sideways 70%. A good system should be able to discern the direction the next breakout will be when it is going sideways.

as ive said earlier, i was on demo and did catch the majority of the uptrend, when i switched to live i wanted to also be long but got in at the end. having said that i'm considering making a system for when the market goes chop chop on hourlies (H4 trades will only be trend trades)

 

[Chartsy]

screw it, im going long USDJPY

 

[FX Bandit]

screw it, im going long USDJPY

Is your system for sale? It sounds interesting.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

screw it, im going long USDJPY

The "screw it" trades are the ones you need to learn to avoid....these will give you your biggest losers..

 

[FX Bandit]

The "screw it" trades are the ones you need to learn to avoid....these will give you your biggest losers..

No way - that's a sweet system. I'm hoping to one day be advanced enough to move up to the "F*** It - Forex Profit Exponentialator" System.

When we're doing Screw It trading, how much should we bet? I like to double up after losers.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

No way - that's a sweet system. I'm hoping to one day be advanced enough to move up to the "F*** It - Forex Profit Exponentialator" System.

When we're doing Screw It trading, how much should we bet? I like to double up after losers.

Yeah thats a great idea - sounds like you've got it down pat...maybe its time to move up to advanced the F*** it method...go all in max margin no stops....should be a millionaire in no time

 

[Chartsy]

closed it for a 3 pip loss.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Ahh, gotcha. You found a proper support area on your demo to go long, and then you saw how well it was doing, and then, in turn, you chased the trade on your live account. In essence, they were 2 different trades. The demo trade was good, because of catching the proper entry. You saw it going well, you chased it on your real account.
I hope you don't mind me giving you an example of a live trade from last night. If you do mind, then I'll take a hike if you ask me. But, I was counting on high end R for the AUD/JPY to be circa circa 77.00. When the week started with a spike past that point, I was counting on 77.88. It caught me sleeping when it reversed from the actual peak at 77.50, and I spotted it at 74.95, only 5 points under my forecasted high. If it was much lower than that, I would have just let it go, because it is not good to chase the trade. As it turned out, I entered and got a nice +91-pip overnight gain.
Your methodology should be able to tell you of key R's and S's, along with the proximity of reversal areas.
Most of that you probably knew. I'm just trying to offer some helpful input.

as ive said earlier, i was on demo and did catch the majority of the uptrend, when i switched to live i wanted to also be long but got in at the end. having said that i'm considering making a system for when the market goes chop chop on hourlies (H4 trades will only be trend trades)

 

[Splitlink]

closed it for a 3 pip loss.

That was a bit quicker that your first trade at the beginning of this thread. I didn't mean quite that fast! Your first idea was excellent. Follow the trend and enter on a pullback.

You'll get it right, in the end.

 

[Chartsy]

this is stressful, waiting for a pullback, all i can think is 'don't be a dick for a tick'

 

[Chartsy]

Ahh, gotcha. You found a proper support area on your demo to go long, and then you saw how well it was doing, and then, in turn, you chased the trade on your live account. In essence, they were 2 different trades. The demo trade was good, because of catching the proper entry. You saw it going well, you chased it on your real account.
I hope you don't mind me giving you an example of a live trade from last night. If you do mind, then I'll take a hike if you ask me. But, I was counting on high end R for the AUD/JPY to be circa circa 77.00. When the week started with a spike past that point, I was counting on 77.88. It caught me sleeping when it reversed from the actual peak at 77.50, and I spotted it at 74.95, only 5 points under my forecasted high. If it was much lower than that, I would have just let it go, because it is not good to chase the trade. As it turned out, I entered and got a nice +91-pip overnight gain.
Your methodology should be able to tell you of key R's and S's, along with the proximity of reversal areas.
Most of that you probably knew. I'm just trying to offer some helpful input.

yeh but no, the demo trade wasn't a lucky virtual punt, it was based entirely off my method that i'm continuing to use, but yes i essentially chased it a bit, i didnt want to ride it out on demo, wanted to get the rest of it live.my stops are usually good places to go in the other direction, they aren't usually based off S/R but just out of volatility.
don't know why i rushed into that UJ long, i've got my limit order set and i should just leave the computer now