New Trades Thread

[Lúidín]

for curiosity ..week is not over so might have to adjust a small bit..will be opened on 18Feb16

 

[hhiusa]

for curiosity ..week is not over so might have to adjust a small bit..will be opened on 18Feb16

A short sale restriction is in effect for XIV.

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=ShortSaleCircuitBreaker

 

[hhiusa]

No wonder there is a short sale restriction in effect. Everybody probably saw this opportunity and jumped on it.

 

[Lúidín]

well hh..if my projection works out correct..then we are now in..or over the next 2 days..a buying opportunity

of course anything can happen..but if you are buying and holding..then you must have an opinion..but different to your daytrading approach

anyway..i will update the projection when this week finishes..and both files will be opened on or around the 18feb16

 

[hhiusa]

well hh..if my projection works out correct..then we are now in..or over the next 2 days..a buying opportunity

of course anything can happen..but if you are buying and holding..then you must have an opinion..but different to your daytrading approach

anyway..i will update the projection when this week finishes..and both files will be opened on or around the 18feb16

I do not really trade by charts by I became curious because of you. Here is a chart for XIV. I have noticed that the 30 min bars work quite well. If I use a narrower time frame it produces too much noise.

 

[hhiusa]

Have you noticed this general trend upward at around 10:13 am EST.

 

[Lúidín]

I do not really trade by charts by I became curious because of you. Here is a chart for XIV. I have noticed that the 30 min bars work quite well. If I use a narrower time frame it produces too much noise.

first of all hh..get rid of those squiggly lines..they are lagging indicators..after the event..and of no real use unless you are trading opm and get paid regardless of what happens the peoples money

your main chart for stocks is the 1 hr chart..but you also need more timeframes to carry out your analysis to get a bias before you risk money..i am speaking about buy and hold here..not scalping or daytrading

a chart is just a picture of the data..it is the same thing..and..if you learn how to look and read charts the correct way..it can be more accurate than using maths to work out averages and deviations

like everything..anything worthwhile requires time and experience..one can not expect to read charts correctly unless they are shown by someone who knows..or they do it the hard way..on their own..which can take years and still be of very little benefit

as the old saying goes...

a fool learns from his own mistakes..a wise man learns from the mistakes of others

 

[Lúidín]

Have you noticed this general trend upward at around 10:13 am EST.

you are hitting on something very important in relation to making money trading..but have it slightly wrong

of course time is crucial..but it is not set in stone..as what you see at certain times..is no more than the habits of certain individuals who just happen to have a lot of money to trade with

the habits are that..a habit..but what actually transpires is a different thing..based on cumulative fear and greed..nothing more..nothing less

there is no magic in trading..it is simple maths!

 

[hhiusa]

first of all hh..get rid of those squiggly lines..they are lagging indicators..after the event..and of no real use unless you are trading opm and get paid regardless of what happens the peoples money

your main chart for stocks is the 1 hr chart..but you also need more timeframes to carry out your analysis to get a bias before you risk money..i am speaking about buy and hold here..not scalping or daytrading

Did you not notice? They were for daytrading purposes.

a chart is just a picture of the data..it is the same thing..and..if you learn how to look and read charts the correct way..it can be more accurate than using maths to work out averages and deviations

There is never only one correct way to do anything. I welcome your advice about why you think it is wrong.

like everything..anything worthwhile requires time and experience..one can not expect to read charts correctly unless they are shown by someone who knows..or they do it the hard way..on their own..which can take years and still be of very little benefit

as the old saying goes...

a fool learns from his own mistakes..a wise man learns from the mistakes of others

Well, I am not using them in the way that you probably think. Secondly, I was noticing an uptrend around 10:13 across all the equities that I was looking at. A rose by any other would still smell as sweet. Whatever you call an EMA does not matter to me. Indicators have use during trending periods and oscillators have use during consolidation periods. I am sure that you have your trading methods. If a wheel is not broke, then don't fix it.

Would you mind giving me your two cents here? I posted some questions below.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educational-resources/212510-7-pitfalls-moving-averages.html

1. Moving averages draw trends from past information. They don't take into account changes that may affect a security's future performance, such as new competitors, higher or lower demand for products in the industry and changes in the managerial structure of the company.

Doesn't historical data already have the news priced into it? Whatever news that happened during that time will have caused or not caused any changes in the market that results in the price that it ended up being, wouldn't it?

2. Ideally, a moving average will show a consistent change in the price of a security, over time. Unfortunately, moving averages don't work for all companies, especially for those in very volatile industries or those that are heavily influenced by current events. This is especially true for the oil industry and highly speculative industries, in general.

What is meant by a moving average will show a consistent change in price of a security, over time"? Securities do not change price at a consistent rate? If an exponential moving average is essentially and a derivative of a stochastic process mapping a security, then if the security changes price rapidly, so shall the EMA. Derivatives (calculus) map the rates of changes at a given in an underlying function or process. Using a discretized time step analysis, If a stock has a price of $50.00/share at t=0, $50.50 at t=1, $51.51 at t=2, then it does not have a consistent price change. The EMA or any other form, as it was not described which type of moving average was being used, wil reflect an acceleration in price. The derivative at t=1 = 1% and at t=2 = %2. I suppose I do not understand where the discrepancy and; thus, the problem lies with the part in red.

5. Many investors argue that technical analysis is a meaningless way to predict market behavior. They say the market has no memory and the past is not an indicator of the future. Moreover, there is substantial research to back this up. For example, Roy Nersesian conducted a study with five different strategies using moving averages. [color=]The success rate of each strategy varied between 37% and 66%. This research suggests that moving averages only yield results about half of the time, which could make using them a risky proposition for effectively timing the stock market.

If technical analysis has no value and the market has no memory, then what is the point of historical data? Why bother keeping historical data if it is irrelevant to the future? Many firms spend a great deal of money keeping and tryin maintain accurate historical data. Many services charge an arm and a leg for it. Does this mean that they are tantamount to snake oil salesmen? Additonally, wouldn't that make charting and the like obsolete as they rely upon historical data no matter how short of a time frame you look back?

I would be curious to know which strategies were applied specifically? What types of moving averages were used and which permutations? EMAs, WEMAs, SMAs? How long was the backtest period?

 

[Lúidín]

hh..we all know that those who are in the business of selling..or getting people to part with their money..have only 1 thing in mind..and it is not the best interests of anyone else

there is no use debating it..for it is plain to see that somethings will never change..so it is just a waste of time

I spent bout 1.5 hrs looking at es chart this evening..as I need to get back into the swing of things..and you would be amazed at how it started to come back to me once I stayed at it..and kept saying to myself..this is now going to happen based on that..and kept doing it..over and over..till I was seeing it right most of the times

now..seeing and doing with real money are not the same..for when you see the p&l changing on the screen..then you start to screw yourself up with silly thoughts

as long as you can make good calls..take the trades..and get out when the charts tell you..then making money is possible..as soon as you start concentrating on profits and losses..not the charts..you are screwed..and will make silly mistakes

I am not concerned with making money right now..i take the present time as readjusting and getting back into the swing of reading charts correctly..and trading correctly..which I have not being doing on my mobile phone..and which is going to stop now

from now on I will mostly be doing chart trading with laptop..even if ony for the last hour of the day for now..as I am still not available to trade the open yet..which I consider to be the best time to trade

as for all the indicator crap..well..i do not need or use any of that..i found over the years it does nothing but distract you from seeing what is actually happening..and thus costs you money

most people will take the wrong path..as I did at first..and they can not be blamed..for how are you to know if you have no experience..it is just not possible

anyway..the only person to be concerned about is yourself..so I really do not care that much what anyone else says or does..why should I..unless it benefits me of course..that is a different matter entirely..and up to each person to find out for themselves if they are wasting their time or not

using a german keyboard at the moment..grrr

 

[hhiusa]

hh..we all know that those who are in the business of selling..or getting people to part with their money..have only 1 thing in mind..and it is not the best interests of anyone else

there is no use debating it..for it is plain to see that somethings will never change..so it is just a waste of time

Why are we talking about "the business of selling"? Who said anything about selling to people?

now..seeing and doing with real money are not the same..for when you see the p&l changing on the screen..then you start to screw yourself up with silly thoughts

as long as you can make good calls..take the trades..and get out when the charts tell you..then making money is possible..as soon as you start concentrating on profits and losses..not the charts..you are screwed..and will make silly mistakes

That is all well and good. You must do what you can handle psychologically. In spite of that, they are mighty big assumptions. I still have questions about what you said.

I am not concerned with making money right now..i take the present time as readjusting and getting back into the swing of reading charts correctly..and trading correctly..which I have not being doing on my mobile phone..and which is going to stop now

from now on I will mostly be doing chart trading with laptop..even if ony for the last hour of the day for now..as I am still not available to trade the open yet..which I consider to be the best time to trade

as for all the indicator crap..well..i do not need or use any of that..i found over the years it does nothing but distract you from seeing what is actually happening..and thus costs you money

Would you mind giving me a better answer than "indicator crap"? I am honestly curious for reasons behind saying that is pointless. Share the wealth! What do you think you are using when you are chart trading? You have to be using something to indicate a trade, which means it is a form of an indicator.

most people will take the wrong path..as I did at first..and they can not be blamed..for how are you to know if you have no experience..it is just not possible

anyway..the only person to be concerned about is yourself..so I really do not care that much what anyone else says or does..why should I..unless it benefits me of course..that is a different matter entirely..and up to each person to find out for themselves if they are wasting their time or not

using a german keyboard at the moment..grrr

We were not talking about other people. At least I was not anyway.

I sold out a little early. I could have ridden the trend a bit higher as you can see by the squiggly lines. I decided that I would use 0.2% to 0.3% TPs for my daytrades.

Doesn't historical data already have the news priced into it? Whatever news that happened during that time will have caused or not caused any changes in the market that results in the price that it ended up being, wouldn't it?

If technical analysis has no value and the market has no memory, then what is the point of historical data? Why bother keeping historical data if it is irrelevant to the future? Many firms spend a great deal of money keeping and tryin maintain accurate historical data. Many services charge an arm and a leg for it. Does this mean that they are tantamount to snake oil salesmen? Additonally, wouldn't that make charting and the like obsolete as they rely upon historical data no matter how short of a time frame you look back?

 

[hhiusa]

It seemed to work pretty well here. At every red line, it is at least 0.5% higher than the green line except in one instance. You would do pretty well to buy at the green line where there is a crossover and place a TP order for 0.5% above. I am not looking for a super fast paced growth, but 4 profitable trades in 1 week at 0.5% plus one break even trade equals 2.01%. That may not be enough for some, it is for me.

XIV 2015-01-06 to 2015-01-13

 

[Lúidín]

if you are daytrading..ignore the es futures at your own risk..if you look at the wrong stuff..you will get the wrong results

your profit target will depend on what time of day you are trading..and what the futures are doing..it is good to know the averages..but on days like today averages have no bearing..and..you must capitalize on such days by trading larger size than normal

I can not tell you what to see in charts..for you are not me and you do not think like me..i can see very important things in this chart..maybe others do not see what I see?

hindsight is easy..live chart reading is not easy..it takes a lot of practice and many hours of looking and seeing..but when you "get it" you do not "forget it"

 

[Lúidín]

question..

why do people get it wrong when trading?

 

[hhiusa]

Would you mind giving me a better answer than "indicator crap"? I am honestly curious for reasons behind saying that is pointless. Share the wealth! What do you think you are using when you are chart trading? You have to be using something to indicate a trade, which means it is a form of an indicator.

if you are daytrading..ignore the es futures at your own risk..if you look at the wrong stuff..you will get the wrong results

How is the price AAPL correlated with the ES futures? wrong stuff?

your profit target will depend on what time of day you are trading..and what the futures are doing..it is good to know the averages..but on days like today averages have no bearing..and..you must capitalize on such days by trading larger size than normal

I can not tell you what to see in charts..for you are not me and you do not think like me..i can see very important things in this chart..maybe others do not see what I see?

hindsight is easy..live chart reading is not easy..it takes a lot of practice and many hours of looking and seeing..but when you "get it" you do not "forget it"

XIV is not futures. I was talking about equities.

Additionally, it worked out okay for me today. The first chart I posted was from today.

why do people get it wrong when trading?

That is a pretty vague question. I would not presume to know.

If technical analysis has no value and the market has no memory, then what is the point of historical data? Why bother keeping historical data if it is irrelevant to the future? Many firms spend a great deal of money keeping and tryin maintain accurate historical data. Many services charge an arm and a leg for it. Does this mean that they are tantamount to snake oil salesmen? Additonally, wouldn't that make charting and the like obsolete as they rely upon historical data no matter how short of a time frame you look back?

 

[Lúidín]

It seemed to work pretty well here. At every red line, it is at least 0.5% higher than the green line except in one instance. You would do pretty well to buy at the green line where there is a crossover and place a TP order for 0.5% above. I am not looking for a super fast paced growth, but 4 profitable trades in 1 week at 0.5% plus one break even trade equals 2.01%. That may not be enough for some, it is for me.

XIV 2015-01-06 to 2015-01-13

xiv is not a stock..it can behave a bit abnormal at times..due to whatever way they have it setup

if you want a constant stock..with low risk..here is one..no squiggly lines required

 

[hhiusa]

xiv is not a stock..it can behave a bit abnormal at times..due to whatever way they have it setup

if you want a constant stock..with low risk..here is one..no squiggly lines required

1. It does not matter if it behaves like a stock.
2. VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN. It is traded like an equity.
3. I answered your question earlier. Would you mind answering mine?
4. XIV is not futures.
5. I never asked about a stock with low risk.

Would you mind giving me a better answer than "indicator crap"? I am honestly curious for reasons behind saying that is pointless. Share the wealth! What do you think you are using when you are chart trading? You have to be using something to indicate a trade, which means it is a form of an indicator.

How is the price of AAPL related to the ES futures? wrong stuff?

Your picture does not have an explanation. Would you mind explaining it to me?

 

[Lúidín]

aapl..largest component weight in sp500..3.277515 to be exact....basket trading by large institutions

wrong stuff..anything that distracts your attention from current price dynamics

xiv..1 day is nothing..must be able to be applied each and every day..otherwise a waste of time

Originally Posted by hhiusa View Post

If technical analysis has no value and the market has no memory, then A what is the point of historical data? Why bother keeping historical data if it is irrelevant to the future? Many firms spend a great deal of money keeping and tryin maintain accurate historical data. Many services charge an arm and a leg for it. BDoes this mean that they are tantamount to snake oil salesmen? Additonally, wouldn't that make charting and the like obsolete as they rely upon historical data no matter how short of a time frame you look back?

A..because you have to know where price has been in order to work out where it might go next

B..no..they are just keeping themselves in a job

CHARTS are A MUST..if you trade without charts then you quite frankly do not know how the markets operate..for..the CHART is the fundamental tool in the trading industry..but..as mentioned many times..very very few have actually worked out how to look at interpret charts the best way..which means being able to work out from chart analysis..the most probable direction..and magnitude..for future price movement..giving all things normal and no sudden disasters

people get it wrong..simply because..they do not know what they are doing..they are following text book regurgitated rubbish..that has very little benefit as most of it is in hindsight..the event has already happened

anything that you can see..with any indicator..is derived from the chart data..so..the chart data is the KEY..and this should be obvious to most..but it is not..for reasons that have been mentioned many times..by many people..but who cares..let people think and do what they want..for..

the only person that you should care about..is YOURSELF !

 

[Lúidín]

here is another one..as plain as the nose on your face

 

[hhiusa]

aapl..largest component weight in sp500..3.277515 to be exact....basket trading by large institutions

That may explain what AAPL has to do with the S&P500; however, it does not explain what the S&P500 has to do with AAPL. It certainly still does not explain what AAPL has to do with futures or what the S&P500 has to do with futures? Indices tracks stocks and the like. Stocks do not track indices. You have your causation inverted.

What does basket trading have to do with our conversation?

wrong stuff..anything that distracts your attention from current price dynamics

xiv..1 day is nothing..must be able to be applied each and every day..otherwise a waste of time

Yes. 1 day is nothing. Nobody said anything about backtesting only day. In fact, I backtested it several years. My chart did not just show one day, it showed seven days.

Originally Posted by hhiusa View Post

If technical analysis has no value and the market has no memory, then A what is the point of historical data? Why bother keeping historical data if it is irrelevant to the future? Many firms spend a great deal of money keeping and tryin maintain accurate historical data. Many services charge an arm and a leg for it. BDoes this mean that they are tantamount to snake oil salesmen? Additonally, wouldn't that make charting and the like obsolete as they rely upon historical data no matter how short of a time frame you look back?

A..because you have to know where price has been in order to work out where it might go next

B..no..they are just keeping themselves in a job

This is not stating any new information. I already surmised A & B.

Does this mean that they are tantamount to snake oil salesmen? Additonally, wouldn't that make charting and the like obsolete as they rely upon historical data no matter how short of a time frame you look back?

CHARTS are A MUST..if you trade without charts then you quite frankly do not know how the markets operate..for..the CHART is the fundamental tool in the trading industry..but..as mentioned many times..very very few have actually worked out how to look at interpret charts the best way..which means being able to work out from chart analysis..the most probable direction..and magnitude..for future price movement..giving all things normal and no sudden disasters

anything that you can see..with any indicator..is derived from the chart data..so..the chart data is the KEY

You have that inverted. A chart is just a picture. Anything you can see with an indicator is not a chart. A chart may have indicators if you place them there, but they are mathematical equations based upon stochastic processes mapping the stochastic nature of financial instrument across discretized time.

A chart is just a GUI for newbs to see. A computer is rendering that based upon coding and mathematics. Charts are not physically necessary as you can use the underlying math behind them to calculate things for yourself. I do not need a picture. I have mathematics and coding.

If you are not using the so called lagging indicators or any indicators for that matter, then what you are saying is that you trade solely based upon the news or unrelated instruments like futures. What exactly do you use an indicator for a buy signal?

1. It does not matter if it behaves like a stock.
2. VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN. It is traded like an equity.
4. XIV is not futures.
6. Your picture does not have an explanation. Would you mind explaining it to me?