my journal 3

Immortal Technique on Obama, 9/11 truth & Corporate America - YouTube

This guy has got "deep knowledge", just as the interviewer says. He's totally amazing. And totally unexpected:
Immortal Technique - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Immortal technique is labeled a terrorist - ImmortalTechnique.co.uk

Immortal Technique at Occupy Wall Street: "We are here to stay" - YouTube

This channel and this guy are both impressive. I have to keep an eye on both. There's less manipulation on RT reporting on the US, than on US media reporting on russia. RT might not report news objectively on Russia, that's for sure, but it does a good job on the US. The US media instead is like... drugging its viewers, and has been doing so for decades. Something comparable to carbon monoxide (e.g. the "war on terror" years).
 
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FT Alphaville » Roubini’s guide to a Greek debt restructuring

roubinigreekrestructuring.jpg


From a year ago:
Forget Those Greek Debt Restructuring Rumors, The EU Is Just Going To Cave And Bail Them Out Again - Business Insider
Greek Debt Crisis 2011 Map - Business Insider

chart.jpg
 
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Greek Depositors Withdrew $898 Million From Banks Monday - WSJ.com
ATHENS—Greek depositors withdrew €700 million ($898 million) from local banks Monday, the country's president said, as he warned that the situation facing Greece's lenders was very difficult.

In a transcript of remarks by President Karolos Papoulias to Greek political leaders that was released Tuesday, Mr. Papoulias said that withdrawals plus buy orders received by Greek banks for German bunds totalled some 800 million.
Click to expand...
In the past two years, deposit outflows have generally averaged between €2 billion and €3 billion per month, though in January they topped the €5 billion mark.

The latest data from the Greece's central bank shows that total deposits held by domestic residents and companies stood at €165.36 billion in March.
Click to expand...
What a mathematician... "have generally averaged between €2 billion and €3 billion ...". I call it "average" but then I give you a "range", and it's only valid generally. Why not say "have usually been in a range between..."? I guess he was typing too fast.
 
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Meet the Greek Leader Who Sent Global Markets Reeling - Business News - CNBC


BBC News - Profile: Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza
BBC iPlayer - Profile: Alexis Tsipras


A.Tsipras: Me or Papariga for Prime Minister. Why not? - YouTube



(Updated May 8) Greece: Austerity parties smashed, radical left makes big gains | Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal
Comments
Wed, 05/09/2012 - 09:20 — Bob Lyons (not verified)
A Pre-revolutionary Situation

The election results should leave no doubts in anybodys' mind that a Greece has entered into a pre-revolutionary political state. The ruled will no longer accept being ruled in the old way, the rulers are no longer able to rule in the old way.

This is much akin to the fall of the Salazar regime in Portugal, of course with much different outlines and content, in that the results open the road to an anti-capitalist government based upon a mobilised mass workers movement. The results for Syriza in the working class areas of Greece, and even in places such as the island of Corfu, are simply astounding. There was an absolute rejection of the classical social democracy-PASOK, and of the "Third Period" Stalinist KKE (cousins to the sectarians of the Portugal CP) by the workers.

Contrary to the fears of the Antarsya, the SYRIZA is leadership has put forward a transitional governmental program to deal directly with the debt crisis, each element of which has won broad support in the Greek working class.

Immediately being handed the exploratory mandate which would give SYRIZA three days to form a government of the left, the SYRIZA declared that the exisiting memorandums, forced upon the Greek people by he IMF, World Bank, and European Central Bank are null and void. The basis of a left coalition government would be, according to SYRIZA the following:

1. An immediate moratorium on all debt payments until the legality of the debt was examined by an international audit commission (such as was carried out by Ecuador's new government of Rafeal Correa.)

2. The nationalisation of the banking sector, following an immediate investigation into the dealing of the banks, and the publishing of US hedge fund BLACKROCK's report on the sector.

3. The cancellation of all meaures lowering the social wages of Greeks, such as cuts in pensions, social services, etc.

4. The cancellation of all impending measures which would weaken workers rights, such as the proposed new Labour Law.

5. An immediate cancellation of the law giving MP's immunity from prosecution, an immediate overhaul of the election law which would, among other things, do away with the bonus 50 seats given to the party with the most votes.

If this program for governmental action doesn't start the ball rolling to a massive confrontation with the imperialist bourgeoisie,within the present context of the economic and social crisis of the EU, I don't know what else would. This program can gather around it the working class and the petite bourgeois being hammered by the crisis. It will be opposed by the PASOK (and in fact has been denounced by the social democrats) from the right, and opportunistically by the KKE who, showing the other face of its sectarian face, will try to position itself in such a manner that it will act as a guarantor of political stability.

It is in this context that ANTARSYA, which has a much greater influence in the mass movement than its electoral score showed, can intervene to build and mobilize in the streets and through the construction of neighbourhood and factory councils, the mass movement which can carry support for the governmental program of SYRIZA to a higher level, either by forcing the KKE to pledge support for the program or by setting the stage for mobilizations leading to new elections in June.

As SYRIZA has correctly pointed out, this represents an historic opportunity for the revolutionary Greek left. We know the KKE will fail this test. Will the other elements inside and outside ANTARSYA rise to the occasions?
Click to expand...
 
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Elections 2012: Live news blog, May 16 | Athens News
Welcome to the Athens News live news blog, where we will be covering all the developments ten days after the 2012 general election - and the first day of the second election campaign

2pm We've a new nationwide poll, this time from the VPRC company and published in Epikaira magazine. It was carried out between May 10-14 on a sample of 804 people.

It shows voter intention and includes don't know, abstentions, etc. The actual share of the valid poll would be higher in each case, in the event of an election.

Party: (voter intention)

Syriza: 20.3%
New Democracy: 14.2%
Pasok: 10.9%
Democratic Left: 6.1%
Communist Party: 4.4%
Independent Greeks: 3.7%
Golden Dawn: 2.2%
Recreate Greece: 1.6%

Other parties 2.3%
Undecided: 17.3%
Don't know/No answer: 6%
Click to expand...

2.10pm The party leaders' meeting is over. Panos Kammenos, leader of the Independent Greeks, says that the new prime minister is Panayiotis Pikramenos, chief judge of the Council of State.

My colleague Costas Papachlimintzos has provided the following biography:

Panayiotis Pikramenos
Council of State president

Born in Athens in 1945. He graduated from the German School (Deutsche Schule Athen) in 1963 and from the University of Athens Law School in 1968. He worked as a lawyer both in Athens and in London and got a master's degree in public law from the University Paris II. He was appointed as a court reporter at the Council of State in 1976 and was promoted to the position of associate judge in 1981. In July 2009 he was appointed as the president of the Council of State.

The Council of is the Supreme Administrative Court of Greece.

He's the country's 184th prime minister since 1822.
Click to expand...
OK, now that finally Greece has put to rest this political chaos for a while, and there will be no uncertainty for a month, until the elections, on June 17th, I am hoping that finally the Bund will start falling a little bit. There are no news to speculate on. They're all saying that the Greeks are buying german bonds so if the euro ends, they'll be left with marks rather than drachmas. There's a post about it here:
http://maxkeiser.com/2010/05/10/cap...rld-celebrate-the-biggest-bailout-in-history/

Otherwise one could not explain why they kept buying german bonds with a negative yield in some cases.

I don't know much about this yet, but I've been following the bund for a few months now, along with natural gas. A couple of discretionary trades started in February or March made me start researching on energy, public debt, and just about everything else as a consequence (cfr. conspiracy theories - which are true). Yeah, because you can't study the natural gas future without studying energy and its history, and you can't study the bund future without studying public debt, and world politics basically. It's interesting because whereas the bund future is mostly related to politics (and the tendency for politicians to leave debts to their successors), natural gas is mostly about geology, but there's also a lot of politics in it: such as the oil lobby keeping politicians and companies from changing the world so it can lose its dependence on oil, or motivating oil wars (Iraq and other wars).

Of course this whole thing is only happening because I changed my trading from short term and automated to long term (just because it wouldn't go my way in the short-term) and discretionary, based on fundamental analysis. Automated trading can make money no matter what, but the timeframe of my automated trading is hours. So it's based on statistics and it studies the zigzagging patterns of prices.

But then I got bored, so I made some discretionary trades, and started investigating why they weren't working. And I found something very interesting. To the point that now I'd like to keep on doing it no matter what, regardless of my automated trading. Given enough capital, ideally, I'd like to do both. At any rate, for automated trading, I don't need to do anything anyway.

The most important thing now is to get out of these two trades profitably, after following the subject for months.

Other than this, during these last two months, I have discovered that by doing fundamental analysis, you basically are lead to studying the world, its history and its future, because everything interacts and everything has a price. Let's say you want to learn something about agriculture: all you need to do is start a discretionary trade on corn. Within a month, you'll have done hours of research on corn. I wish they had made me study math and all these other subjects with a focus on the money that could be made by studying them.

Since I started trading, because of it, I've studied: excel, programming, vba, easylanguage, math, politics, economics, finance, geography, geology, history... investing is the best incentive to learning.

Investing has made me interested in world events, whereas until recently I only focused on technical analysis and didn't give a damn what happened to Greece or to the world. For example, the major event of this year will probably be peak oil. No one knows about it, if you talk to the idiots surrounding you. Zero. Just as they ignore the facts on September 11th. I hope I'll make something of my knowledge, such as profit at least. As for these people, it's hopeless, because they're too stupid and too ignorant to understand any of these matters, even if you tell them. I have once and for all realized that it doesn't make sense to speak my mind and say what I know and what I think to most people. With them, you should adopt the attitude you have with children. You treat them as children. You don't expect them to understand you.
 
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regrets

Something on "regretting" when trading discretionary.

I haven't written in weeks. Let's see if i can still think and write clearly.

I was thinking that this problem of regretting when you make a trade is very related to the fact that you cannot know the future and that as a consequence you will make the wrong prediction as to the extent of the move you're trying to profit from. No matter how good you are, you will not assess it exactly. So you're destined to have regrets after each trade, after each entry and after each exit.

What you do when you regret is basically blaming yourself for not knowing the future. When you made those choices you did not know the future, you gave it your best shot (including your ignorance of statistics, if it's a discretionary trade, and your hopes, and needs, and everything else - nonetheless still your best shot all things considered), and then, after the trade, you're there, each time, blaming yourself for not taking into account the future. You're basically blaming yourself for not having known what could have happened. It's pretty crazy, but each time it feels reasonable.

I think i have pinpointed how i feel about this problem. The problem is not having been wrong, but the blaming itself. The feeling of guilt.

It's all wrong.

Just as it is wrong that you blame yourself for going to bed late the night before. You knew everything, and at the time it was time to go to bed, you chose not to go to bed, because you valued staying up now more than being rested tomorrow.

So, blaming yourself and regretting choices makes no sense whatsoever, in any field. It's ok to realize a mistake, but you cannot term "mistake" things that you keep doing because you're in a different situation each time. I mean you're two different persons before you go to bed and after you wake up, and you're two different persons before you trade and after you trade. Even if you were motivated by some gambling addiction, or miscalculating things based on the time, need, hope... even then, you cannot term it a "mistake". Instead traders do this all the time, discretionary traders I mean. They call everything a mistake, and mostly call "mistakes" things that could not have been predicted. It's as if we were saying "hey, what an idiot I've been to not know the future". It's stupid to not learn, but it's more stupid to try to learn something that cannot be learned, namely the future. Automated trading deals with this problem by making choices based on statistics, and you follow them blindly, and you never regret anything, because your system always makes the choice that statistically pays off, or at least paid off.

And why did I stop doing it? The uncertainty bothered me. I was experiencing regrets even when faced with the outcomes of automated choices. Hopefully I'll get back to it soon.

But while in the meanwhile I trade discretionary, how can I fight this senseless feeling of guilt when making an inevitable mistake? I should remember that I wrote a long post on the meaningless of regretting when you're trading. That way I can quote myself, as others quote the bible, or some popular saying. As travis said, regretting doesn't make any sense.

I should be focused on the future. What's the next move? It doesn't make any sense to focus on the past and on how much you could have made if in the past you had known the future. Pretty crazy though because the past and the future are so close to each other that you almost feel that you could go back a few minutes and improve your trade. With trading, if you just knew 5 minutes of the future, you could make so much money. And so it gives you this illusion that knowing the future is easy, and that it should be done, and that it's your fault to not have known the future. That's pretty much what goes on in a trader's mind, when they're regretting a trading choice. They're confusing the past with the future, and their place in time when they made that choice, and what they know now relative to what they knew before. There might be some specific term for this... losing track of time. I do it a lot. I often find myself planning my past. It might have something to do with having been blamed by my father for making mistakes that i could have avoided by knowing the future. If you ask him for advice, he never tells you anything, and if you show him you need help he doesn't volunteer - he avoids the subject. But, once it's too late, then he says "if you had done this..." and "if you had asked me, I would have done this for you". And yet even now, once again, I am regretting that he's not the way he should be, which is another waste of time, because it's like saying that if I had been born to different parents I'd have had a different life. Instead you have to make the best of what you've got now, not the best of what you don't have, nor the best of what you had before.

Yet writing encourages this type of behaviour. Thinking of the past and living in the past. It makes you look back. Or maybe it's the other way around and you write if you look back.

I don't know if I'll ever feel "ok" about either discretionary or automated trading. If I will, I will probably make money. Yes, it is an important step. Not regretting and not getting mad at the market. This in turn is all connected to being undercapitalized. You're forced to make bigger bets than you can afford to lose without caring. And caring causes you to take things personally and to regret choices that should just be based on statistics, whether discretionary or automated. But if you're undercapitalized, you're at a disadvantage, and so if you are in that situation, you're probably not going to get out of it. So, I do have some odds against me, because of this problem. On the other hand, by experience you could learn to care less. I have almost reached the point of not caring anymore. Caring enough to want to make money, but not caring so much as to have deep regrets if I don't. And I think this is a step forward.
 
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Re: regrets

travis said:
But while in the meanwhile I trade discretionary, how can I fight this senseless feeling of guilt when making an inevitable mistake? I should remember that I wrote a long post on the meaningless of regretting when you're trading. That way I can quote myself, as others quote the bible, or some popular saying. As travis said, regretting doesn't make any sense.
Click to expand...

Developing a sound methodology is process of trial and error based on reasoned and logical analysis. It takes lots of study and practice so you cannot be critical of yourself for doing the best you could with the understanding you had at the time you made your trade. You will learn to forgive yourself for a losing a trade provided you faithfully followed your methodology.

With time and experience you may discover that your methodology has some flaws and you will make new discoveries that modify and improve your technique. Use every trade, winners and losers, as an opportunity to learn and/or reinforce good habits. Study what the market did before and after you made your trade, even the losers, and see how close you were to being right with your analysis or where you may be going wrong.

The only time you should be critical of yourself is when you stray from you methodology.
 
Travis, sorry to go a bit OT here,
I noticed you've been looking into oil, peak oil etc.
I have a load of links you might find interesting based on rig counts,
exploration technology (current and emerging) and so on.
Lot of links so I don't want to flood the thread,
or derail it with them unless you are interested :)
 
Not as many as I thought, after weeding out a lot of broken and irrelevant links :)
I do agree, peakoil is here or close enough.
Some of the technology below is helping to find and recover oil previously
unrecoverable or unfound.

General Oil Industry news / info sites
World's Largest Oil and Gas Companies
OilVoice | The web's number one Oil and Gas website
Offshore.no International - European Oil and Energy News
Finding Petroleum - World Class Oil & Gas Events
IHS Petrodata | IHS
RIGZONE - Your Gateway to the Oil & Gas Industry
World’s Top 10 Biggest oilfield services companies list
USGS Release: 3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate— (4/10/2008 2:25:36 PM)

Seismic survey / CSEM / Oils svcs cos.
https://www.bakerhughesdirect.com/cgi/bhi/myHomePage/welcome.jsp
Home, Schlumberger
Welcome to WesternGeco, WesternGeco
Oilfield Services | Halliburton - Solving Challenges. - Halliburton
Petroleum Geo-Services | Geophysics, seismic data acquisition & processing
INOVA - INOVA Geophysical - Land Seismic Solutions for the Global Oil & Gas Industry - INOVA
Reducing Exploration Risk
ViaLogy, A signal processing solutions company, QRI, A ViaLogy Energy Solution, Signal within the noise
Finding Petroleum
Ikon Science - Optimise Success Through Science - Rock Physics Experts
Finding Petroleum
Predrilling Virtual Logging | Adrok
Adrok - Geophysical Surveying Services - Mining Technology

Rig Data
Baker Hughes - Investor Relations
Baker Hughes Incorporated - Rig Count
RIGZONE - Offshore Rig Data, Onshore Fleet Analysis
Weekly Rig Count | IHS
RigData
Production Data Home

Technology
Baker Hughes Reservoir Blog
Finding Petroleum | Advances In Geophysics & Sub-surface Description
Shell and PGS Develop Fiber-Optic Seismic System | United States
Tackling reservoir salinity | Technology | BP
Enhanced oil recovery | Technology | BP
CSEM: Friend Or Foe To 3D Seismic Surveys? - Engineer Live, For Engineers, By Engineers
 
Thank you both for the precious information.

Regarding the links, thank you very much of course, and I will soon get to work on them: it's going to take a long time before I read all of them. I will add them as a resource (I have a "resources" folder), besides going through them right away.

----------------------------------

One more thing on peak oil. I went back to studying supply and demand, after so many years since my microeconomics course, because I realized that it is essential to understanding oil prices and to doing fundamental analysis.

Here's my work:

Snap1.jpg

As geological resources get depleted (the easier oil has been taken out already, and the remaining oil becomes increasingly expensive to extract), oil supply, which has already "peaked", will keep decreasing, so the supply curve or line (for simplification purposes) keeps shifting to the left.

And, since the mother ****ing oil lobby keeps us blindfolded in various ways and keeps scientists and politicians with their hands tied (resorting to murder when necessary), demand, too, keeps shifting, this time to the right. The machines requiring oil do not get replaced with more efficient machines or machines that don't require oil at all, for the mentioned reasons. And, despite the recession in the western world, the developing countries will soon be compensating the demand we're decreasing.

So in my opinion oil prices will keep rising for years (see red circles in chart), probably until there will be wars for oil, and other disasters I've been forecasting. The financial markets will probably end, too. So this is our last few months of trading before the end of civilization.

This is unless higher prices make us adapt very fast to the new situation (oil companies might have a plan for the upcoming situation or maybe not, since they only seem to think about the present). A lot of industries would still close, people would stop using cars and planes, and some panic might still happen, even if prices increase slowly. The real question is if the government can keep the idiot people from panicking, after it has kept them from knowing the truth for so long.
 
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