my journal 3

Agreed, at best the decline in oil production can be slowed down by new
survey and extraction technology. That still comes at a cost - extraction and field
development are more expensive, adding to upwards pressure on oil price.

As for alternatives, until recently I always thought the progression to
electric vehicles was a massive mistake.
For me the hydrogen fuel cell seemed more practical and realistic:
Honda Worldwide | Fuel Cell
BBC NEWS | Business | Honda makes first hydrogen cars
Obviously the dowside is perception,
the hindenburg being an obvious example despite technological advances.

That was until I came across a solar power variant:
Victorville Solar Power Generating Station, California - Power Technology
Solar mirror - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Seems to be gathering pace and is on track to be the worlds largest
solar power experimental project.
Rolled out on a mass scale, that would answer the argument of fossil fuel
power stations generating electricity to charge electric vehicles.

With electric vehicles, the practicalities of recharging could be overcome by
adopting a universally agreed battery format.
That would allow a quick battery cahnge at a battery centre or even
as an additional service provided by petrol stations in the interim.

Personally, I think alternative energy plans have been in place for quite some time.
Its just the vested interests making sure every last drop is milked from
the oil cashcow before it keels over.
 
Exactly. The technology is there and has been there for decades. In some cases the inventors have been killed because they would not sell /give up on their inventions (rudolf diesel, tom ogle, etc.). Here's two great documentaries about oil companies getting in the way of progress:

Who Killed The Electric Car? (Documentary) (Part 1 of 8) - YouTube

Gas Hole - YouTube


Here's another video. Obama does know about peak oil, but he will not say it to the public, and many more interesting points in this video:

Author Kurt Cobb Educates Peter Schiff About Oil Supply & Demand - YouTube

The guy interviewed says Obama doesn't say it because the public won't understand it, but I think he'd end up dead if he did tell the people about peak oil (killed by oil companies) with all the other things he'd have to say - such as why the country needs to change its energy sources. It's just like for September 11th. I am sure he knows what went on, but he's not going to say it. Everyone with a little bit of intelligence knows what happened on 9/11.

Here's another one blaming the speculators for oil prices:

Cantwell: Oil Should be Based on Supply and Demand, Not Wall Street Bets - YouTube
 
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travis said:
This is unless higher prices make us adapt very fast to the new situation (oil companies might have a plan for the upcoming situation or maybe not, since they only seem to think about the present). A lot of industries would still close, people would stop using cars and planes, and some panic might still happen, even if prices increase slowly. The real question is if the government can keep the idiot people from panicking, after it has kept them from knowing the truth for so long.
Click to expand...

The average person wants to live in ignorant bliss. To fully understand oil prices you need to understand the origin of money and how governments have monopolised and corrupted it over time.

This is one site you must have in your "resources" folder.

True Prices Measured in Gold

Crude Oil
 
travis said:
Yes, I will add it to my "resources", and I thank you. However, I don't fully grasp the usefulness of pricing everything in gold.

I found a related post here:
Gold Is Not Going Up – Everything Is Deflating Against Gold
Click to expand...

What it shows is gold and oil have pretty much held the same value against each other.
The currency they are bought in has devalued over that time (inflation).
Does that really mean the true value of oil and gold has increased?

Gold and oil still have the same intrinsic value today as 50 yrs ago.
Same amount of gold to make a gold bar.
Same amount of oil to make a litre of petrol.
Yet price in USD goes up.

Some of the rise is good old supply and demand,
dwindling resources, speed of production etc.
Mostly its inflation.

Controlled (you could also say manipulated) inflation makes everything look good,
growth figures etc.
Get it wrong...inflation goes out of control
 
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I don't know if the average person wants to live in ignorant bliss though. I was thinking about it... regarding this post:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/140032-my-journal-3-a-109.html#post1857286

Maybe that or maybe it's easier for politicians to lie to people, maybe because if you tell people the truth, they'll vote for someone else lying to them, so whoever lies more has more votes. Could that be? Then that would prove your point more or less, in the sense that people would rather believe a happy lie than a sad truth, even though they will not consciously tell you that they want the politician to lie to them. In fact, they'll want his punishment if they find out that's been the case. All in all, we both agree with the fact that most people are idiots.

Thanks to Liquid Validity for his reasoning on gold, oil and inflation. I haven't reasoned on this long enough to express any more opinions. However, from the few things I know, I have to state that right now it is more useful and practical for me to measure everything in dollars - let alone that for long term purposes there's also inflation-adjusted dollars, such as in this chart of oil prices:
Price of petroleum - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

1000px-Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg.png
 
Regarding my recent thoughts on discretionary trading, I want to add this. Rather than "how much could I have made if I had known the future?", the question I need to ask myself is "what am I going to do that I will not regret later (even if it makes me lose money)?".

The money lost, or profit missed, is gone and the sooner you forget about it, the quicker you can focus on the future and benefit from it. I must stop thinking, when trading, what could have been and regretting what has been.

And objectivity is the key. Objectivity must not be affected by the past, and your anger for losing money or missing profit. Profit must not seem more likely depending on whether you need it or not. Instead what has happened with my trading so far is that profit seems more likely right after loss, because I am so mad about it that it must happen at all costs.

This is a totally different area than my automated trading, and everyone must remember that I end up doing discretionary trading out of boredom, and out of trying to help out my systems, which on the other hand apply an entirely different methodology, and a profitable one.
 
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travis said:
Maybe that or maybe it's easier for politicians to lie to people, maybe because if you tell people the truth, they'll vote for someone else lying to them, so whoever lies more has more votes. Could that be?
Spot on, politics is just a popularity contest.
Then that would prove your point more or less, in the sense that people would rather believe a happy lie than a sad truth, even though they will not consciously tell you that they want the politician to lie to them. In fact, they'll want his punishment if they find out that's been the case. All in all, we both agree with the fact that most people are idiots.

Thanks to Liquid Validity for his reasoning on gold, oil and inflation. I haven't reasoned on this long enough to express any more opinions. However, from the few things I know, I have to state that right now it is more useful and practical for me to measure everything in dollars
Again, spot on. The reality is we are all stuck with FIAT currency whether we like it or not, so any trade is a play based on that simple fact.
- let alone that for long term purposes there's also inflation-adjusted dollars, such as in this chart of oil prices:
Price of petroleum - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

View attachment 136664
Click to expand...

In practical terms, both your statements are absolutely true :)
 
travis said:
All in all, we both agree with the fact that most people are idiots.
Click to expand...

Yes (y)

travis said:
Thanks to Liquid Validity for his reasoning on gold, oil and inflation. I haven't reasoned on this long enough to express any more opinions. However, from the few things I know, I have to state that right now it is more useful and practical for me to measure everything in dollars - let alone that for long term purposes there's also inflation-adjusted dollars, such as in this chart of oil prices:
Price of petroleum - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

View attachment 136664
Click to expand...

It doesn’t serve any practical use if you are looking at an oil chart with a view to making short term discretionary trades. However I got the impression you wanted to study the fundamentals on a much deeper level, if that is the case then to add to Liquid Validity's post, it helps you understand the contradictions between oil price and oil supply. It also helps you understand why Governments try to blame speculators for high oil prices when their inflationary monetary policies are the real cause. Just to highlight the point, 1971 is when the US President Nixon closed the “gold window” which officially took the world off the gold standard. Look at what happened to the nominal price of oil since 1971.
 
Yes, I see.

However you're certainly not saying that oil's rise in the 1970s was just due to taking the world off the gold standard, because this chart from the website you gave me shows that there was a huge increase also "pricing it in gold":
Crude Oil

Crude-1950.png

Yes, I do want to investigate everything deeply, just as you said, so thanks for your insights.

Also because I am enjoying the idea that merely placing an almost random trade (and purely based on technical analysis, rather than fundamental analysis) on a market has sent me on a research rampage, that has enlightened me on many important matters of the world and mainly:
1) that governments lie to us, and for example are still covering up, world-wide, what happened on September 11th, and are hiding peak oil from us.

2) that oil companies kill people to protect their interests

3) that oil has peaked and that there'll be a panic by next winter

4) the whole public debt thing and the debt crisis: it's fascinating how each politician leaves some debt to his successor so that democracies are basically doomed to blow up every few decades. If you're elected you're encouraged to lie, as we said, and you're therefore also encouraged to not pay the bills and leave them to whoever follows you. Dictators don't have this problem, because they're not elected, but then they have other problems.

Just the other day I was thinking I wanted to get into agriculture, and learn about it. And I know the way to go about it for me is to simply place a trade on either Corn, Soybean or Wheat (the CME future). I know that would be enough to send me into a research rampage for a month.
 
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This guy is likely to be the next prime minister in greece, and at any rate he's likely to affect the situation in greece. It's the only interview in English I could find with him (it is from May 16th, two days ago):


The transcript is here:
Elections 2012: Live news blog, May 17 | Athens News
Alexis Tsipras: Austerity will send us 'directly to the hell' – Amanpour - CNN.com Blogs
CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR: Mr Tsipras, thank you for joining me from Athens. Mrs Merkel has said you either do the reform and the austerity or you are out of the euro.

Do you think that the German chancellor is bluffing?

ALEXIS TSIPRAS: I don't know what Mrs – Madam Merkel wants to do. But I know what we want to do. We don't want Greece outside – outside Europe. We don't want Greece outside – outside the euro. We don't want Greece outside the Eurozone. We want Greece inside euro and inside eurozone.

But I – we feel that Madam Merkel puts euro and Eurozone in a big danger by keeping we – in these austerity measures. The austerity measures put Europe and the eurozone in a big danger.

So we want to change the austerity measures, also in Greece and also in Europe. That's what we want to do and we want to do this with – in cooperation with the other forces and the – the – the people of – of Europe, the people who want a big change, because everybody now, at this time that, with this policy, we are going directly to the hell. And we want to change this – this way.

AMANPOUR: You know, you talk about going directly to hell. And a lot of people are concerned, because, obviously, this would be unprecedented, if Greece leaves the euro and goes back to the drachma. Nobody knows what that would mean.

If that happens, what do you think it would mean for Greece and for Europe?

TSIPRAS: We believe that if Greece go back to – to – to drachma, that the second day, the other countries in Europe will have the – the same problem. And I – I really disagree with a lot of things that Madam Merkel say and do.

But I – I – I – I agree with that that she said. She said before – before a month – a month ago, a month before, that if Greece go out of euro, the second day, the markets will find who will be the second. And the second will be Italy or Spain.

Italy has a very big debt, public debt, not like Greece. Greece have 3,500 million euros, but Italy has a debt about 1.9 trillion.

So you can understand what I was meaning when I was telling to you that this road goes to hell. We don't want Europe to be in – in – in a catastrophe way. So if we want to save Europe, we need to change – to change these directions.

AMANPOUR: I hear you loud and clear. And you keep saying we do not want to do austerity, we need to change this.

What is your responsibility, as a Greek politician, to make this work?

TSIPRAS: No, I don't believe that we will have a benefit if Greece goes back to the drachma. I don't believe that because as – as I told you before, the second day, the Eurozone will be in a big disaster.
So I don't – we don't – we don't want a whole catastrophe of the Eurozone and for Europe.

And, at the same time, we don't want to go back to drachmas because, in Greece, we will have the poor people to have drachmas and the rich people to buy everything with euro.

And this evolution, it will not a good evolution for society and for the people. We – we are here to – to – to try to be with – with the majority. And the majority of people need to be in a safe way.

So that's why we don't that we will have a benefit with the drachma.

AMANPOUR: OK.

TSIPRAS: It's clear for us, we will be – we will do whatever we could do in this direction, to keep Greece inside the Eurozone and inside Europe.

But as I told you before, we are watching this situation in – in – in the whole view of Europe and the eurozone. You can understand what will happen if Eurozone will – will be split – splitted and if Eurozone will be in – in this big danger.

AMANPOUR: Right. You said you...

TSIPRAS: So...

AMANPOUR: You said you're...

TSIPRAS: – I think that our position is clear in this...

AMANPOUR: It's clear.

TSIPRAS: – in these questions.

AMANPOUR: It's very clear.

TSIPRAS: OK.

AMANPOUR: But you said you'll do everything that you can do. Just tell me, what will you do?
TSIPRAS: First of all, we will cancel all – all Greece's austerity measures in memorandum. Do you know the memorandum?

AMANPOUR: Yes.

TSIPRAS: We will cancel the memorandum. And then we will go to renegotiate, in a European level, about a common way to go out – to go outside of this crisis.

And we that this crisis is not a Greek crisis, but a European crisis. And we will try to find a common solution. And I said to you before, what's – what's our opinion about the solutions, about the role of ECB, about the Eurobonds, about the negotiation of the debt in the European level of – of – of the public debt of – of all the European countries.

That's – that's – that's our opinion. That's our position. And I think it's a clear position.
AMANPOUR: And do you think you'll...

TSIPRAS: Again...

AMANPOUR: – do you think you'll have partners for that negotiation?

TSIPRAS: Yes, we think that we will find partners. First of all, in – in the south countries, I think that we'll have the – the same problem with Italy, with Spain, with Portugal and also with Ireland. And I think that we will find partners, and also in the Central Europe.

I'm looking very positive the change in – in France, with Mr Hollande's win in the elections. We will try to find – to find partners. But I think that the situation – the political situation in Europe will change the next days, especially after the big change in Greece. These...

AMANPOUR: And do you think you'll win?

TSIPRAS: – these people instead in this – in this – in this opinion that we – we don't want more state measures. We – we can't go on with these austerity measures, because everything is – was destroyed in Greece.

If the Greek people stick in this opinion, I think that everything will change in Europe.

AMANPOUR: Mr Tsipras, thank you very much, indeed.
Click to expand...

Here is some more good resources:
Hellenic Parliament - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Greek legislative election, May 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Samaras on May 15th:

Samaras: Left halting progress in Greece - YouTube


Venizelos and Tsipras on May 11th:

Post-election Greece: Statements from Venizelos, Tsipras - YouTube
 
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136674d1337352389-my-journal-3-crude-1950.png


The root of the 1970's spike lies in the 69-70 recession:
Recession of 1969
Caused in no small part by the Vietnam war.

Further on, Nixon coming off the gold standard, 70's oil crisis etc.
All of it has roots in Govt. overspending in the late 60's, mainly Vietnam.

Nixon Shock - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
1973 oil crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
1970s energy crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
1973
Stagflation in the 1970s

1970 - demand for gold is greater tha oil.
Safe haven as recession bites.

1973 spike up, demand for oil becomes greater than gold.
Mainly due to massive OPEC price increases.

Beware of Wiki links, usually OK but not the last bastion of accuracy.
Basic Gist is there though.
 
travis said:
Yes, I see.

However you're certainly not saying that oil's rise in the 1970s was just due to taking the world off the gold standard, because this chart from the website you gave me shows that there was a huge increase also "pricing it in gold":.
Click to expand...

Correct, I am not saying that every price rise is directly the result of monetary inflation, however if you look at the overall trend it would be difficult to argue against it.

If you look at 1965, oil was about US$1.80 barrel or approx 2.5 grams give or take. At the peak of the 1970's it went up to $US12 which is about a 6.6 time increase but it peaked at around 4.1 grams of gold which is only a 1.64 time increase.

Lyndon B. Johnson was the US President 1963-1969 and he was running a 'Guns and butter' economy which involved putting a man on the moon, fighting the Vietnam war and social welfare systems like medicare, medicaid and the war on poverty. It appears as if it was all being financed through inflation. The gold reserves of the US were being drained as Governments around the world began to lose faith in the $US. The Gold reserves of the US dropped from approx 20,000 tonnes in the 1960's to approx 8,500 tonnes when they severed the link to gold and basically defaulted on their promise to pay!
 
Nice and concise presentation by Northstar Energy Inc that tells us why we should invest in fossil fuels. The funny thing is that at the same time it is telling us why the world is headed for catastrophe, but its conclusion is only that we should invest in the sector. And also it says that things are going to be this way because alternative energy sources are not that feasible, but the reason they aren't is precisely because oil companies have done everything in their power (including murder) to keep things this way.

Oil Gas Future Supply and Demand, Oil crisis - YouTube
 
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