my journal 3

Gold/Silver May Have Been Manipulated Like Libor - Ned Naylor-Leyland - YouTube

I really wonder what these guys are thinking, while they're being so polite to one another

SILVER Manipulation Case Against JP Morgan : Ned Naylor-Leyland : Keiser Report - YouTube

As i said before, these gold and silver experts are the top experts of finance overall, much more than let's say the average grains or natural gas expert

Max Keiser talks to Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management, Ep.375 - YouTube

it is hilarious and staggering when you compare what this dude Naylor-Leyland manages to say on keiser's report vs what he managed to say on cnbc - this tells us everything about cnbc, and about how much truth is allowed on US mainstream media
 
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Kitco Commentary
By Dickson Buchanan on behalf of Peter Schiff
So what's the big deal? Why are these somewhat obscure signs so important? There are at least two reasons you should pay attention.

First, there is history. The last time we saw gold in backwardation and a negative GOFO rate was in 2008, right before gold went into its largest and longest rally - setting record highs.

Keep in mind that the broader macro-economic factors that were instrumental in the financial crisis of 2008 (bailouts, aggressive bond-buying programs, and suppressed interest rates) have not dissipated at all, but rather increased. The Fed has maintained a relentless inflationary program since 2008 (QEI, II, III, and so on). This strongly indicates that what lies ahead for gold could potentially dwarf its post-2008 rally.

Second, the negative GOFO rate and backwardation of gold are important because they represent a clear measure of the demand for gold. They report to us without bias that the demand for gold is growing while the readily available supply is shrinking. What's more, they show a simultaneous decline in the demand to hold US dollars in favor of gold. This is perhaps the most striking takeaway from these indicators.
Click to expand...
 
from:
Random Thoughts from an Organized Mind: COMEX Gold and Negative GOFO

clip_image00227.jpg
 
from:
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

minute 10:
"the whole purpose of Quantitative Easing is to support the prices of the debt-related derivatives on the banks' books, and, since all debt prices tend to rise together as interest rates fall, the Fed has been able to support the banks, but the minute they start buying less bonds and the price of bonds starts falling, which means interest rates rise, the solvency of these banks then comes into question".

I am starting to get it. They manipulate the price of everything, including bonds and gold, in order to... listen to minutes 10, 11, 12.
 
travis said:
Gee, I've had a second argument with a colleague because I keep defending the newly hired or isolated employees from their bosses.

I know it sounds very good and it is. In my life, I have noticed that when i got isolated or mistreated few if any people ever spoke a word to defend me. Even when I was innocent. It is a situation that always disgusted me, people are disgusting to me in general, because I've noticed this thing since an early age. So for sure I don't want to be like them. In general, I'd like to stay impartial, but if they leave me no choice, I will side with the newly hired employee against their boss (who happens to be just a colleague for me).

It is frustrating but it also feels good.

In the first case I defended a girl in my room from a colleague, but he understood that I was right, so he wasn't offended and stopped his behavior. He was treating her like an idiot while explaining things to her.

Then in the second case, it was two higher ups in the same room, arguing with each other, the guy was a bit higher in ranking and he was telling her, yelling at her, screaming that she wasn't doing her share of the job, that she was a shameless tardy and what have you. Regardless of whether he's right, that is no way to treat anyone, so... in this case, I failed to make peace between them, because he told me not to interfere, that it's not my business, so in this case, I had to lose a friend, him, at least temporarily, to make friends with this lady, whom I didn't even know until she got insulted by my so-called "friend".

Now, since the others are not so balanced as I am (at least in this field), what did they do? They went from saying nothing, which is their usual behavior, to suddenly, one day later, all siding with this lady (the second case), probably just because I had done so. You know, the domino effect, or 100th monkey or whatever it's called - their pathetic conformism in other words.

So now the most isolated one is the guy who did the yelling, and now I have to worry about this rude person, who is indeed rude, but who also, like everyone, does not deserve to feel so isolated. The thing is that I was not counting on this conformist behavior from my colleagues, and that within 24 hours everyone would have been with her and against him. And now I am worried about him, and about this isolation towards him that I set in motion. I don't feel that even Hitler should have been isolated for his behavior. In jail ok, but treated nicely, like all other prisoners, and I don't believe in death penalty.

These guys in my room (now there's 8 of us in it) are pretty disappointing in general, in their behavior - like most humans. There's a couple of them who don't even worry about replying to a salutation by someone unless everyone else does. What I do instead is if someone comes and says "hi" and no one answers, I always make sure at least I answer them. These guys instead go with the flow. If no one replies, they don't reply. If most people reply, then they reply. Pretty sad behavior. They're not worried at all about how the person who said "hi" will feel, but are simply concerned about not being left out of the group.

I am definitely learning about group behavior, ever since being moved with these monkeys. Sociology, in other words.

So, these guys, whereas they didn't give a damn about this lady who was being yelled at, after I decided to express support to her for being yelled at, all of a sudden these guys all did the same thing, and now the effect is that it looks like we are all ganging up on the guy who did the yelling, which is still better than to side with him and against her, but what would be even better is to condemn his behavior while accepting him and welcoming him as a person and colleague: we accept you, but we disapprove that specific behavior. Instead, not at all: these guys go from "you're ok" to "you're evil", and all do it at the same time. Crowds... always avoid them. Always avoid groups. People are at their worst when they're in a group.
Click to expand...


Excellent documentation of crowd behaviour. Relate it to the markets - isn't this the reason why the markets will always allow you an edge and are never perfectly efficient like the efficient market theory postulates?
 
Very interesting, yeah. I was thinking of the markets, too, when I wrote that.
 
It would be interesting to understand why it is so easy, even natural, for you or I to act as you do in the situation you described, yet we are hugely challenged to act differently when it comes to the market.
 
Hmm, I think it's the other way around. Because we're anti-conformists (at least I speak for myself), we stay away from the crowd, and that is exactly what gets me in trouble, because even if I am the first one to spot a new trend, I have problems staying with it, once everyone else comes on board.

In other words, staying with the group in the markets isn't necessarily a negative thing. As long as you're not the last one to join the group, right before the trend reverses.
 
Bill Fleckenstein interview

Fleckenstein (starting at minute 7) and others are helping me reason on this...

So, recapitulating:

The Fed decides how much money to print and it decides the interest rates.

But it cannot control the gold market and the bond market, except through this type of manipulation:

to make gold stay low, it manipulates the market by gold leasing and shorting the derivatives

to make bonds stay up (and the yield low), it buys its own bonds

But the manipulation can only go so far, and now it's reaching a point where it cannot manipulate the markets any more...

My understanding is still pretty poor, but much better than before.

Still I don't understand why banks have be described as "bust" and "bankrupt" (as many of these experts say). I understand why people are getting screwed, and why governments are in debt - but not why banks have to be in trouble.

Actually Fleckenstein says banks are in good shape and that he's only worried about the effect of higher interest rates on the derivatives that banks hold. He's not talking about collapse at all (unlike the others i've been listening to).

My question is on who's going to go bankrupt and:

1) if it's just the governments
2) if it's the banks, too
3) if it's the whole financial system that's going to collapse
4) if it's just in the west or also in the east
 
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