my journal 2

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Coronation Street

William Patrick Harry Roache MBE (born 25 April 1932) is a British actor, best known for his role as Ken Barlow in the soap opera Coronation Street. Roache is the only remaining member of the original cast, having appeared in the first episode on 9 December 1960 and is currently the longest-serving actor in Coronation Street and in British soap overall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Roache
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Warren
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronation_Street
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guinness_World_Records#Evolution




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whnAPUamXm4
 
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good news from some of my new systems

The ninth wave systems are doing well, especially the currency systems of the WITH ID TREND strategy:
with_id_overview.jpg

and VOLATILITY BREAKOUT strategy (of which two have not traded yet):
vol_breakout_overview.jpg

The NG systems instead have been doing very badly.
 
Geethali Norah Jones Shankar

I am going to watch this:
http://www.letmewatchthis.com/watch-12150-My-Blueberry-Nights

Hopefully better than the waste of time of Wall Street 2, which I've watched last night.

For starters, norah jones is a lousy actress. It's immediately apparent as soon as the movie starts.

That's what you get for trusting someone just because she's a great songwriter.

Jude Law is like a giant compared to her. This film makes you appreciate his acting.

But then once you get into the movie and follow the story, you stop focusing on Norah Jones' bad acting.


My final critique on Norah Jones, all things considered, is that both as an actress and as a singer... I'd do her, any time.


I can't believe she's the daughter of this guy: still would do her though.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norah_Jones
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_Shankar
 
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Sharpe Ratio Criticism

From:
http://www.michaelcovel.com/2004/04/03/sharpe-ratio-criticism/

Sharpe Ratio Criticism

Statistical Thinking | April 3rd, 2004
David Harding of trend follower Winton Capital argues for more than simple acceptance of the Sharpe ratio as the measure for assessing “risky investments”:

“The Sharpe ratio appears at first blush to reward returns (good) and penalise risks (bad). Upon closer inspection, things are not so simple. The standard deviation takes into account the distance of each return from the mean, positive or negative. By this token, large positive returns increase the perception of risk as though they could as easily be negative, which for a dynamic investment strategy may not be the case. Large positive returns are penalised, and thus the removal of the highest returns from the distribution can increase the Sharpe ratio: a case of reductio ad absurdum for Sharpe ratio as a universal measure of quality! We might suggest an improvement by considering only the negative semi-standard deviation for the denominator, a measure known as the Sortino ratio. However it still remains vital that the semi-standard deviation used is meaningful, in the sense that it is calculated from a sufficiently well-understood return distribution, where the assumptions of stationarity and parametricity can be made.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sortino_ratio

I suppose most people are using Sharpe Ratio because it's the standard of the industry, even though Sortino seems to be better, at first glance at least. Besides Sortino sounds Italian so it's easier for me to grasp it. All kidding aside, Sortino seems to make more sense.

On the other hand, this Sortino keeps on producing new ratios (cfr. Upside Potential Ratio) so maybe that's why we're using Sharpe Ratio, because the Sortino guy is restless and it's hard to keep up with him.

From:
http://registeredrep.com/investing/mutualfunds/frank-sortino-professor-0801/
...Since the early 1980s, when he founded the Pension Research Institute, Frank Sortino has been getting together with fellow PhDs to brainstorm better ways to manage and measure risk in the investment management industry. During that time, Sortino, a finance professor at San Francisco State University, and his friends in academia have churned out some pretty useful tools, including the Sortino Ratio, the Upside Potential Ratio and Omega Excess. These measures formed the basis of Post Modern Portfolio Theory (PMPT), which at its simplest distillation is downside risk management. At odds with the orthodoxy of Modern Portfolio Theory, PMPT has been relegated to a corner of the investment management world for years. However, Sortino's ideas and PMPT may be catching on: Downside risk management has a little bit more appeal after the 56 percent drawdown in U.S. equities between October 2007 and March 2009...
 
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Oh, man... that blueberry nights movie really sucked and it wasn't because of her acting but the plot simply sucked. I couldn't even bear to watch the whole thing.
 
oh, finally

Finally I found a good one:
http://www.moviesonlineathome.org/watch-769706-Wild-Target

This is a must see. Only five minutes into it, I can already tell this is top quality stuff.

Damn: good, all right. But not as good as I thought. It went from 9 to a 13 ranking on my list of favorite movies.

Later...

I took it off my list. It's even worse. It can barely be watched till the end. This happens often, that movies start ok and end poorly, turning crappy after just 10 minutes.
 
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how many good systems I think I have

Continuing from here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/85510-my-journal-2-a-161.html#post1289230

I will (compulsively) recapitulate once more which systems have proven to be good for trading so far. These are not all systems being traded with real money right now but a group of systems that are either traded or will be traded. Basically my good systems.

I've got the newly identified (see link above) and newly created 12 ninth wave WITH ID TREND + VOLATILITY BREAKOUT systems. In alphabetical order they are:

AUD_ID
AUD_ID_2
CAD_ID
CAD_ID_2
CHF_ID
CHF_ID_2
EUR_ID_7
EUR_ID_8
GBP_ID_6
GBP_ID_7
JPY_ID_3
JPY_ID_4

I've got the 9 presently traded systems:

CL_ID_3
EUR_ID_5
GBL_ID
GBP_ID_5
GC_ON
YM_ON
ZN_ID
ZN_ID_2
ZN_ON_2

I've got some others that I can add, out of those created before than the ninth wave systems. There's 8 of them:

CL_ON_2
CL_ON_3
ES_ON
ES_ON_2
GBL_ON
GBP_ID_2
GBP_ID_3
YM_ON_2

There's a total of 29 systems. 29 good systems out of the 61 I created. Funny how, despite all the work I put into every system, only half of them turned out to be good.

If I hadn't thrown away all my gains in the past two years, right now I'd certainly be able to trade all of the 29 good systems I have. Unfortunately I have gambled it all away. I could take a loan and such, but I won't do it, because I cannot trust myself. By now it's perfectly clear. To me and even to some readers.

Anyway, the equity line for 2002 to 2010 for those 29 systems would look like this:

Oh, needless to say, there's no GBL_ID and GBL_ON because disktrading.com still has not sent me the data they promised me several weeks ago. Pretty nice. And I can't stress them out because if we start an argument I don't know who else to buy my data from.

Anyway, here's the equity line WITHOUT the GBL systems (which are very reliable anyway, so the equity would not look much worse):

Snap1.jpg

Damn. There's a big drawdown that lasts almost a year and goes down 50k. I wonder if with the GBL data, that drawdown would partly go away. Maybe one could even allocate 2 contracts to the GBLs.

Damn, whichever the combination of contracts, that 50k drawdown seems unavoidable. It doesn't have to happen again immediately, but it could and it could even be worse.

Anyway, I know what the good systems are, I know what the very good ones are, and I know that I'll have to face a 50k drawdown if worse comes to worse.
 
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Samba em Prelúdio

Singer and composer Carlos Lyra:
"Baden was at Vinicius home when he presented "Samba em Prelúdio", a tune he had just composed. Vinicius heard and liked it so much that he said that the composition was from Chopin. Baden denied but Vinicius insisted. At the end, Vinicius called one of his sisters who knew classical music very well, asked Baden to play and made de questions: "Isn't this Chopin?" She says no, Chopin had never written that music. But Vinicius still unconvinced said, "Chopin didn't make it because he forgot it. This song belongs to him."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baden_Powell_de_Aquino
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vinicius_de_Moraes

Eu sem você não tenho porquê
Porque sem você não sei nem chorar
Sou chama sem luz, jardim sem luar
Luar sem amor, amor sem se dar

Eu sem você sou só desamor
Um barco sem mar, um campo sem flor
Tristeza que vai, tristeza que vem
Sem você, meu amor, eu não sou ninguém


Ah, que saudade
Que vontade de ver renascer nossa vida
Volta, querida
Os meus braços precisam dos teus
Teus abraços precisam dos meus

Estou tão sozinho
Tenho os olhos cansados de olhar para o além
Vem ver a vida
Sem você, meu amor, eu não sou ninguém


Eu sem você não tenho porquê
Porque sem você não sei nem chorar
Sou chama sem luz, jardim sem luar
Luar sem amor, amor sem se dar

Eu sem você sou só desamor
Um barco sem mar, um campo sem flor
Tristeza que vai, tristeza que vem
Sem você, meu amor, eu não sou ninguém


Ah, que saudade
Que vontade de ver renascer nossa vida
Volta, querida
Os meus braços precisam dos teus
Teus abraços precisam dos meus

Estou tão sozinho
Tenho os olhos cansados de olhar para o além
Vem ver a vida
Sem você, meu amor, eu não sou ninguém
Sem você, meu amor, eu não sou ninguém
 
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Luther

Wow, this is good stuff:
http://www.thatfilmwatchingsite.org/watch-260120-Luther

This guy is always making good movies:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Fiennes
http://www.thatfilmwatchingsite.org/?actor_name=Joseph Fiennes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Luther
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Protestantism
http://www.adherents.com/Na/Na_423.html#2428

Luther, one guy who didn't want to be a sheep, just like this other guy:
http://www.thatfilmwatchingsite.org/watch-26780-1492-Conquest-of-Paradise
(another good movie)

From the movie itself:

"independent mind"
"will you recant or will you not?!"

Basically this guy, like me, was one guy who said "i disagree" with what everyone else either believed or didn't dare to argue against. Like Columbus and many others. I am like that, too. I like how the movie clearly explains this fact.

I am like that, too. At work I say to people why do you ask "how are you?" if you just keep walking after you ask me? It's a question that should not be asked like that.

With trading, everyone around me says "it's not possible, because if it were possible everyone would do it" or "...everyone would be rich". And again I say "i disagree".

That's why Vito cannot understand me. Because he's too easygoing to not belong to the stupid sheep majority. You can't spend your whole day cracking jokes and saying "hi" to everyone, and see my point of view. There isn't enough time. If you want to do that, you're going to stay stupid. And I won't find peace until I have to stick around these people.

There's a quote that came to mind, that maybe was Einstein's or maybe not. I searched on the web and couldn't find out (there's 10 different versions of it and no source). It starts more or less like this: "everybody knows that something is impossible..." and the rest I am not sure about. But the quote continues in this sense: "...then comes along someone who doesn't believe or know that it's impossible, and makes it happen. I want to be like that ignorant/anticonformist guy, who makes things happen because he doesn't follow the herd.

Here's my search for that quote:
http://www.google.com/search?q="eve...&prmd=b&ei=dz27TJr2B8ODOsr5yJoN&start=20&sa=N
http://www.englishforums.com/English/AQuoteEinsteinExactWordingEnglish/wmcqm/post.htm
http://books.google.it/books?id=3o8... knows that something cannot be done"&f=false
http://books.google.it/books?id=owW...y knows that something is impossible"&f=false

Martin Luther, the first successful "heretic" (as far as Catholicism, because Jesus was a "heretic" himself).
 
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a breath of fresh air

Went to dinner with my neighbour. It was healthy for my mind. I get out of the house rarely. I could use this kind of thing about once every 2 weeks. That's the healthy social life for me. I don't need more than that.
 
this is my type of movie

http://www.thatfilmwatchingsite.org/?actor_name=Joseph Fiennes

This actor practically does exactly the type of movies I want to watch right now: biographical/historical movies.

Yesterday I watched Luther, today I am watching the Red Baron:
http://www.thatfilmwatchingsite.org/watch-681-The-Red-Baron-Der-Rote-Baron
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Red_Baron
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/413934.stm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dicta_Boelcke
Luftstreitkräfte

Historical movies: wherever you want to escape, they never fail to take you. And they're believable even if they are poorly made, because it's all based on true facts:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_historical_drama_films

It's the good material that makes the good movie. Take action movies and comedy: it's very hard to come up with a quality action or comedy movie, no matter how much you spend. But historical and biographical movies are easy. You just take a story that is meaningful to you and a good movie will come out of it - even if the actors sucked and the script sucked. Merely focusing on a good story, merely getting the viewer to focus for a second on something important that happened is worthwhile. That's why I like documentaries so much. None of these things ever fail.

Half of these Joseph Fiennes movies are not masterpieces but they are all worth watching because the approach is right. You can't fail by making a movie on Luther, because his life was interesting in itself. But try and make a movie about a crazy Vietnam veteran by the name of Travis Bickle: it takes Martin Scorsese to turn that into a masterpiece. So what I am saying is that historical and biographical movies have a much higher success rate than drama movies.

My favorite biographical movie is probably Serpico. Other good ones that come to mind are Catch Me If You Can, and if we consider it biographical (it's a stretch), Goodfellas. Then I'd say Lawrence of Arabia. Within my top 200 movies there's a few others, like:

City of God
Midnight Express
Gandhi
The Last King of Scotland
Monster
...
 
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getting back into simulated combat flying, maybe

This was a lot of fun and I've played it for years on Microsoft Combat Flight Simulator 3, but then they discontinued the multiplayer server, so I quit it.

Now an old cfs3 player advised me to use Fighter Ace, so I might get back into it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fighter_Ace_(video_game)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6nyllOUdA4

Besides, I could use the flat screen tv instead of my monitor. The only thing that is not so good is that, once i get into it, I will be gone for a couple of years... time will fly by.


Maybe I should wait until the systems really take off before resuming this type of addiction.
 
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