Keith's H&S doesn't, exactly, hit me in the eye, though. I would have said that it was bouncing off the previous low, making support, but not that it was an inverted head and shoulders. Looking at it on a 2 min chart you see more.
I have been trying lapalabra's idea of looking at a lower TF, this morning, and have not had a good day, making a couple of winning trades, three losers and losing 28 points, more than I wanted. I have decided to wipe the slate clean and go back to where I was a couple of weeks ago.
I think that the tendency for most of us to look for more detail in lower TFs is a mistake. I see more in higher TFs, the flip side being that there is more risk in the stop requirement.
My own experience was to see little patterns that, when acted upon, were not very profitable and I missed the bigger picture, which was a reversal of 50 points from 1020 to about 1220. I would not have left that before but, yesterday, I was trying to short into a rising trend. All because I was looking into a lower TF and seeing reversals of little importance.
Split
I have been trying lapalabra's idea of looking at a lower TF, this morning, and have not had a good day, making a couple of winning trades, three losers and losing 28 points, more than I wanted. I have decided to wipe the slate clean and go back to where I was a couple of weeks ago.
I think that the tendency for most of us to look for more detail in lower TFs is a mistake. I see more in higher TFs, the flip side being that there is more risk in the stop requirement.
My own experience was to see little patterns that, when acted upon, were not very profitable and I missed the bigger picture, which was a reversal of 50 points from 1020 to about 1220. I would not have left that before but, yesterday, I was trying to short into a rising trend. All because I was looking into a lower TF and seeing reversals of little importance.
Split
I dont look any lower than 5 min TF, tired a 3 min for a while which kind of corelated with 5, any lower I think it gets choppy but that is my opinion. I now other traders that work of a 2 min TF and are successful. it relates back to trading style and system I guess.
maybe we should all get together and have a workshop and see if we can iron out the wrinkles? were all doing something right and at times very similar in trades but with some differences im sure it may be a combination of what we do, could produce something better who knows, Im up for it if anyone else is?
dr.blix
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is that an inverse head and shoulders or a 2 bar key reversal?
3m vs 5m
Split,
Couldn't agree with you more about those little patterns on smaller TFs that can draw you in and blind you to the larger picture.
On that particular period between 1020 and 1220, as I said at the time, I was basing my long on a chart pattern of a bull wedge (strip off out of market data from the day before going into 17/04 and you see it more clearly on 5M/10M) and a strong support on 4040 I did not want to be shorting into after a double bottom - ignoring the signals I was getting precisely because the proximity to a strong support was causing whipsaws on the lower 3m TF that was not giving me confidence.
Of course, the whole point of a system giving signals is that you do not ignore them, or at least in exceptional cases based on discretion- so you see where I am going with this...
On the 5M I would have had none of those whipsaws, and only one clear signal to go long which I pre-empted with my long based on the chart pattern.
I put on a spreadsheet for myself to view the exact numbers of entries and exits, points -+, s/l's etc as best I can to give an idea of failures and successes on the 3M and 5M TFs with the same system over last week, and the 3m came out as involving almost twice as many trades and a higher failure rate, yesterday by 2x as much - and this doesn't account for any slippage with such quick trading in whipsaws or the nerves involved on the lower tf!
Clearly, for me anyway, the numbers alone speak for themselves - especially as I am trying to lower the amount of trades I do, not increase them. I may look at 3M for entries when certain of a direction I want to take, but not beyond this.
I came out of this experiment in the money, fortunately, but it could easily, easily have cost me- I found out from my spreadsheet of numbers I was exercising my discretion extensively and not taking half the trades from 3M, going against the whole idea of signals on this TF altogether. For a few trades it worked perfectly, and these caught my imagination, but the rest...
Its so good to hear that you and Keith thinking along these lines as well.
And on the H&S, I was thinking it looked more like a two bar reversal as well DB than a head and shoulders to my mind also - but again, I've only just started looking at this.
ps. if only I could have gone back more days on IG's chart package to backtest more than 2days on 3M, in stead having to copy and print every day as I went for a weeks worth of data, I may never have embarked on this experiment or alerted you to it Split!
Split,
Couldn't agree with you more about those little patterns on smaller TFs that can draw you in and blind you to the larger picture.
On that particular period between 1020 and 1220, as I said at the time, I was basing my long on a chart pattern of a bull wedge (strip off out of market data from the day before going into 17/04 and you see it more clearly on 5M/10M) and a strong support on 4040 I did not want to be shorting into after a double bottom - ignoring the signals I was getting precisely because the proximity to a strong support was causing whipsaws on the lower 3m TF that was not giving me confidence.
Of course, the whole point of a system giving signals is that you do not ignore them, or at least in exceptional cases based on discretion- so you see where I am going with this...
On the 5M I would have had none of those whipsaws, and only one clear signal to go long which I pre-empted with my long based on the chart pattern.
I put on a spreadsheet for myself to view the exact numbers of entries and exits, points -+, s/l's etc as best I can to give an idea of failures and successes on the 3M and 5M TFs with the same system over last week, and the 3m came out as involving almost twice as many trades and a higher failure rate, yesterday by 2x as much - and this doesn't account for any slippage with such quick trading in whipsaws or the nerves involved on the lower tf!
Clearly, for me anyway, the numbers alone speak for themselves - especially as I am trying to lower the amount of trades I do, not increase them. I may look at 3M for entries when certain of a direction I want to take, but not beyond this.
I came out of this experiment in the money, fortunately, but it could easily, easily have cost me- I found out from my spreadsheet of numbers I was exercising my discretion extensively and not taking half the trades from 3M, going against the whole idea of signals on this TF altogether. For a few trades it worked perfectly, and these caught my imagination, but the rest...
Its so good to hear that you and Keith thinking along these lines as well.
And on the H&S, I was thinking it looked more like a two bar reversal as well DB than a head and shoulders to my mind also - but again, I've only just started looking at this.
ps. if only I could have gone back more days on IG's chart package to backtest more than 2days on 3M, in stead having to copy and print every day as I went for a weeks worth of data, I may never have embarked on this experiment or alerted you to it Split!
At some point I would def be up for this, but right now I think I need to spend some time working a few things out for myself - and as you see from Split's post above taking advice/input from me can be dangerous for your financial health...
I don't really feel I have a great deal to offer until I at least firm up some of my own trading, ideas and practices for which this forum is invaluable for now but anything more may be putting too many things into the mix for my excitable and easily confused mind! 😕
dr.blix
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some really interesting stuff there lapalablra...i'm a beginner, just realising my errors of using too short a timeframe...6 months of 1m TF has left me a bit shell shocked! i'm moving to 5 mins and then 30/60/and daily to look for clearer patterns.
1M for 6 months!?...and 3M had my nerves jangling! I would be babbling by the end of it and slowly knocking my head against a wall...!
If I am honest with myself, my whole attraction with lower TFs was to do with my eagerness to not miss the turns and getting in right at the beginning - however much I flaffed up my exits, so my simple and flawed thinking went, at least I could work out a way to grab action from the beginning and play the odds in getting out quick if it wasn't working. I was tired of missing the beginnings of trades and chasing them and ending up in a hole.
Someone here already warned me trying to catch the turns was where money was lost, there's also a real possibility of losing your sanity too I've discovered!
Fewer trades with greater confidence at a TF where you can see the trends of your trading period clearly, and satisfying yourself with a positive outcome as a % of the move as opposed to greedily trying to grab it all, these are the things I have learned this week.
Now, what to do with that learning...
dr.blix
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i hear what you're saying there lapa, i was getting obsessed with getting in right at the very bottom and exiting right at the very top, if i saw a well develpoed trend i wouldn't jump in because i was narked about not entering at the bottom! stupid when you simply have to identifying a trend and take a safe chunk from the middle! ended up killing me with too many bottom searching openings. funny how your personality traits (i like to find bargains) can come and bite you in the ass!
i could poss see why some people say they use a short TF to enter/exit, but i find it hard not to get locked into watching all the movement and losing sight of longer term price targets.
sounds like you're taking the time to do some good thorough experimentation.
do you have a full trading plan that you adhere to?
i could poss see why some people say they use a short TF to enter/exit, but i find it hard not to get locked into watching all the movement and losing sight of longer term price targets.
sounds like you're taking the time to do some good thorough experimentation.
do you have a full trading plan that you adhere to?
I didn't mean it like that! I've been taken into dangerous waters by some very well known posters on this site. I don't want you to feel that an Oldie, like me, is incapable of listening to the opinions of others and I hope that the latest half dozen posts will attract the attention of some of them.
My own method of trading Footsie is straightforward. I am ( or try to be) a trend follower. I'm not a lover of holding overnight, preferring to be out of the market each day, although that is flexible. Other daily affairs restrict my trading from 0800 to a1330, most days. Very occasionally, I take a day off, or trade to the close, or get interested in SP500 or Forex.
Money can be made by doing what I do, because I have had this intraday trend approach
for a long time. My steady, although unspectacular, profits have shown me that this is, definitely, not a luck thing.
I have found that having a time limit of 1330 on my daily trading is beneficial in closing myself out. I think that having that kind of discipline imposed on one is healthy, so anyone thinking of taking this on fulltime should ask himself whether he needs that lifestyle. It's very nice to have time for the kids and grandkids.
We are all different! 😀
OK Split, I just had a terrible feeling knowing I shared with you my workings on the lower time frames which, in my excitement from having had a few successful trades with it, I didn't feel I gave a strong enough caveat emptor- I had not fully tested it. That someone else listened to me and suffered for it, while I got out of the woods ok, was weighing on my conscience - I don't mind suffering setbacks for my own mistakes but I don't like to involve others in them. Just a good ol' sense of Catholic guilt I guess!
Dr Blix - I do have a trading plan which I'm still in the process of putting together...parts change with each experience as some of it should do, but the important elements are in place. Whether I adhere to it...well I hope to!
And yes Split, I hope as you say the last few posts do attract attention of others' opinions- its invaluable getting the open and honest interaction of others here.
Well, a new week everyone...hope a happy and healthy and peaceful weekend was had by all!
:clap: Great! I was over @ GBPUSD short from this morning, have a look? 🙂 so missed ftse...what a great set up though, when did you enter?
Exit @ 4048 for +5
4090.1. Leisurely stuff. Will have a look at your forex later!
4044 Closed. +46
I must say that I thought that I had missed it as it went up and down before I went in. Then I had the "Am I doing this right? worry. Fortunately, for me, I have got to the stage where I ask those question at the same time as my finger hits the button. If it's wrong, I'll correct it later.
Now for a cup of coffee and a look at your forex.
I must say that I thought that I had missed it as it went up and down before I went in. Then I had the "Am I doing this right? worry. Fortunately, for me, I have got to the stage where I ask those question at the same time as my finger hits the button. If it's wrong, I'll correct it later.
Now for a cup of coffee and a look at your forex.
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