market direction

[N Rothschild]

yes im sure like all calls open target and hedged (if possible) instead of stop

 

[hwsteele]

yes im sure like all calls open target and hedged (if possible) instead of stop

Hedge instead of stop...
Is that just what you like doing or have you found that to be more profitable over time?

 

[N Rothschild]

i find it allows you to more easily adjust your risk depending on the market conditions and protects you from bear/bull traps, stop runs etc. it much more dynamic if thats the right word

 

[N Rothschild]

spent all afternoon looking at natural gas data, still looks a blinding long despite last weeks blood bath! think its a trap like we saw in corn

 

[hwsteele]

i find it allows you to more easily adjust your risk depending on the market conditions and protects you from bear/bull traps, stop runs etc. it much more dynamic if thats the right word

I understand perfectly what you are saying now. Thanks

 

[N Rothschild]

ok will give a little teaser as to the kind of things i look at.

here we have the natural gas rig count, hopefully i dont have to explain why this is important!

lower the price gets and the bigger the stock piles get the more rigs go offline as they arnt needed and vice versa with low stock piles and higher prices.

you will see the last big drop in rig count coincided with the rally at December. so we should see a rally as output declines and storage drops. in theory ofcourse (and before some smart **** points out i am aware of the weather factor)

this is also theory that the EIA natural gas statistics are grossly over estimated and there isn't actually as much gas in storage as made out.

 

[N Rothschild]

I understand perfectly what you are saying now. Thanks

cool, im sure in a few of these markets i would have been stopped out if i had been operating a hard stop. especially in crude

 

[wackypete2]

cool, im sure in a few of these markets i would have been stopped out if i had been operating a hard stop. especially in crude

Thats one of the benefits of hedging. You won't get stopped out on spikes or MM manipulation.

Peter

 

[hwsteele]

cool, im sure in a few of these markets i would have been stopped out if i had been operating a hard stop. especially in crude

I have always looked at hedging in the past as too expensive when a high percentage of trades are winners.
But now after thinking about it I can see how it can add to the number of winners you have if placing stops is hard for someone, and other reasons too.
Even if stops are not "hard" to place for someone it could also reduce the amount of stress one might feel while the trade is open.

Thanks again!!

 

[N Rothschild]

well thats the thing people dont want to cough up the premium of having protection but in reality they would probably be more successful with it. i happily pay 30-40% of profits for peace of mind.

 

[gktk]

thanks, not an fx trader atm but euro property owner so any potential euro weakening is always good to hear.

no idea, never even looked at a eurgbp chart before! i would expect the pound to be stronger than the euro going into the summer though

 

[N Rothschild]

i swear to god live cattle is doing my **** in!

 

[N Rothschild]

anyone got a few 100 million they wana invest in my fund?

 

[trader_dante]

new market, cotton.

looks ripe for the picking..no pun intended! short.

Selling into previous resistance?

 

[N Rothschild]

whats resistance?

 

[rawrschach]

anyone got a few 100 million they wana invest in my fund?

I have a million zim dollars...

 

[temporarilylight]

you're too late. I gave my last million to Waspy...

 

[N Rothschild]

nevermind guess i will have to go the old fashioned route!

 

[N Rothschild]

you're too late. I gave my last million to Waspy...

what was the ROI on that badboy like?

 

[temporarilylight]

what was the ROI on that badboy like?

Didn't quite pan out as i would have hoped......

Kidding of course. Id never give anyone my money to trade....even 'the_expert'.