Best Thread Live Cable Trading
mark twain uk
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gold down from 730 to 714
elbart said:Yes Smbtnt, it's pretty volatile out there. No probs mate, I'll report what patterns / trends I see when they appear.
Just received a sell signal at 8955, the risk/reward does not warrant this trade but I will punt it for a few p/p on sb.
TheBramble
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If I can take you back to 07:01 GMT today:-
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=253074&postcount=6334
There certainly was significant activity. Having said that, the action was certainly tradeable, but the volatility (twitches on the moves up and down) wasn't that remarkable.
Check out the levels I quoted though. Pretty tight. (preen preen).
I only caught the first ride up to 9000 after it retested the 8884 level at 08:50. But I did ride it back down to 8884 again, so a useful 70pips up and 80 down.
Friday is not normally a trading day for me, but this was too clear a signal to miss. Looks like I could have done the same trip again this afternoon, but it's warm and sunny and a man's mind turns to other things....
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=253074&postcount=6334
There certainly was significant activity. Having said that, the action was certainly tradeable, but the volatility (twitches on the moves up and down) wasn't that remarkable.
Check out the levels I quoted though. Pretty tight. (preen preen).
I only caught the first ride up to 9000 after it retested the 8884 level at 08:50. But I did ride it back down to 8884 again, so a useful 70pips up and 80 down.
Friday is not normally a trading day for me, but this was too clear a signal to miss. Looks like I could have done the same trip again this afternoon, but it's warm and sunny and a man's mind turns to other things....
marmoset
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Backtesting and tweaking (again)
Right, backtested all Saturday, on 1min data for the whole of last week.
(found 'em here)
Findings:
I have two major underperformers in my dogsled team: S44 and L57 They're pulling the pipcount down considerably, even into the negative if MonkeyBounce were an automated system.
Switched them around to L44 and S57. Much better!
Some tweaking:
1) trend bias: lead dog L08 gets double position, SL78 (30pips) ok, LIM43 (35pips) ok
2) S57 ran better a bit further away from the middle, so now is S63
3) L44 performs best as a sprinter on a short leash: SL 15pips LIM 20pips
4) S63, on the contrary, sprints better on a long leash of 30pips SL (counterintuitive at +20 limit)
5) S91 stumbled too often on the finish line 35pips, so now LIM is 30pips
6) S91 also got a trend bias: the leash is shortened to 20pips, in case the big fig doesn't hold.
So, new line-up:
L08, SL78, LIM43, performing 58.8% of the time. Good dawg!
L44, SL29, LIM64, performs at 52.9%. Big contributor to bottom line, sprints off most often. Wow!
S63, SL93, LIM43, performs at 68.2%. Real hellhound, that one! :cheesy:
S91, SL11, LIM61, performs at 50%, another workdog.
Overall performance: 57.5%
Ready for next week's Iditarod?
MUUUUSH!!!
PS: raw figures (note: only one position is open at the same time for the same entry point):
L08, 10 winners, 7 losers, +140pips (not counting double position, that's $$$ diff., not pip diff.)
L44, 36 winners, 32 losers, +240pips
S63, 30 winners, 14 losers, +180 pips (seriously considering doubling position on that one)
S91, 12 winners, 12 losers, +120 pips
total pips for the week: +680 (week's low: 8512, high 9016 = +404)
average per day: +136, to be taken with a grain of salt:
Monday: +10, MaxDrawdown: -50, MaxProfit: +65 --> 55pips given back
Tuesday: +135, MaxDD: 0 (lowest: +10), MaxP: +145 --> 10pips given back
Wednesday: +240, MaxDD: -20 , MaxP: +240 --> 0 pips given back
Thursday: +140, MaxDD: -60, MaxP: +225 --> 85 pips given back
Friday: +155, MaxDD: 0 (lowest: +20), MaxP: +235 --> 80 pips given back
PPS: Will get me a broker in due time with 3 pips spread, above are 153pips (1 pip spread diff.) going to the broker instead of into my pockets.
PPPS: Iditarod and mushing info
marmoset said:Thoughts starting to form on remedying underperformance: skew or bias in trend direction.
Either double-size the positions taken in the trend's direction (no nominal pip difference, but significant $$ diff.) or tighten the stops of the countertrend bounce positions (nominal pip diff.) or a combination of both... :?:
More backtesting this weekend
Right, backtested all Saturday, on 1min data for the whole of last week.
(found 'em here)
Findings:
I have two major underperformers in my dogsled team: S44 and L57
They're pulling the pipcount down considerably, even into the negative if MonkeyBounce were an automated system. Switched them around to L44 and S57. Much better!
Some tweaking:
1) trend bias: lead dog L08 gets double position, SL78 (30pips) ok, LIM43 (35pips) ok
2) S57 ran better a bit further away from the middle, so now is S63
3) L44 performs best as a sprinter on a short leash: SL 15pips LIM 20pips
4) S63, on the contrary, sprints better on a long leash of 30pips SL (counterintuitive at +20 limit)
5) S91 stumbled too often on the finish line 35pips, so now LIM is 30pips
6) S91 also got a trend bias: the leash is shortened to 20pips, in case the big fig doesn't hold.
So, new line-up:
L08, SL78, LIM43, performing 58.8% of the time. Good dawg!
L44, SL29, LIM64, performs at 52.9%. Big contributor to bottom line, sprints off most often. Wow!
S63, SL93, LIM43, performs at 68.2%. Real hellhound, that one! :cheesy:
S91, SL11, LIM61, performs at 50%, another workdog.
Overall performance: 57.5%
Ready for next week's Iditarod?
MUUUUSH!!!
PS: raw figures (note: only one position is open at the same time for the same entry point):
L08, 10 winners, 7 losers, +140pips (not counting double position, that's $$$ diff., not pip diff.)
L44, 36 winners, 32 losers, +240pips
S63, 30 winners, 14 losers, +180 pips (seriously considering doubling position on that one
)S91, 12 winners, 12 losers, +120 pips
total pips for the week: +680
(week's low: 8512, high 9016 = +404)average per day: +136, to be taken with a grain of salt:
Monday: +10, MaxDrawdown: -50, MaxProfit: +65 --> 55pips given back
Tuesday: +135, MaxDD: 0 (lowest: +10), MaxP: +145 --> 10pips given back
Wednesday: +240, MaxDD: -20 , MaxP: +240 --> 0 pips given back
Thursday: +140, MaxDD: -60, MaxP: +225 --> 85 pips given back
Friday: +155, MaxDD: 0 (lowest: +20), MaxP: +235 --> 80 pips given back
PPS: Will get me a broker in due time with 3 pips spread, above are 153pips (1 pip spread diff.) going to the broker instead of into my pockets.
PPPS: Iditarod and mushing info
Last edited:
marmoset
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Pivots for 15.05.2006
R2 1.9100
R1 1.9020
P 1.8918
S1 1.8838
S2 1.8736
Prediction for Tokyo open:
Premise: To earn interest over the weekend (0.5% int rate diff favouring $), short cable positions are taken (last spike ground down to 8947 on Friday).
Conclusion: to cover the $ longs, a short but hefty (30-50pips) spike upward should occur, to avoid getting caught out in a continuing uptrend. This bigger spike would be new behaviour as this is the first week with an interest rate diff. in favour of $ of this magnitude (well, if I can call 0.5% "magnitude").
Trouble: I've never quite managed to squeeze an order into the Tokyo opening minutes.
R2 1.9100
R1 1.9020
P 1.8918
S1 1.8838
S2 1.8736
Prediction for Tokyo open:
Premise: To earn interest over the weekend (0.5% int rate diff favouring $), short cable positions are taken (last spike ground down to 8947 on Friday).
Conclusion: to cover the $ longs, a short but hefty (30-50pips) spike upward should occur, to avoid getting caught out in a continuing uptrend. This bigger spike would be new behaviour as this is the first week with an interest rate diff. in favour of $ of this magnitude (well, if I can call 0.5% "magnitude").
Trouble: I've never quite managed to squeeze an order into the Tokyo opening minutes.
Last edited:
rav700
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Evening all,
Cable currently @ 1.8970 mmm have got a short ready for the 8996 mark with a low stop @ 1.9016...my expectancy is for it too at least come back down to the level of 1.8945 and there after on london opening to clear the 9000 and move ahead....
So here are my trades then:
Short @ 1.8996 with a stop of 1.9016 and a limit order of 1.8956----Pips exp=40 D.D=20 pips
Longs I am not to clear at this time...just waiting..will post in a bit
Best of luck for the week
Happy Trading
Rav
" Waiting for trader of the month marmoset to break the T2w Cable pipping record"
Best of luck marmoset
Cable currently @ 1.8970 mmm have got a short ready for the 8996 mark with a low stop @ 1.9016...my expectancy is for it too at least come back down to the level of 1.8945 and there after on london opening to clear the 9000 and move ahead....
So here are my trades then:
Short @ 1.8996 with a stop of 1.9016 and a limit order of 1.8956----Pips exp=40 D.D=20 pips
Longs I am not to clear at this time...just waiting..will post in a bit
Best of luck for the week
Happy Trading
Rav
" Waiting for trader of the month marmoset to break the T2w Cable pipping record"
Best of luck marmoset
