eatontrade
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So........is 7435 going to hold ?
Any views ?
Any views ?
Best Thread Live Cable Trading
dc2000
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Baz 150
May I ask what line of work you are in now? you say you have spent the last 10years working on the maths behind market movements, what was the goal of this project ?
On the "frightening accuracy " what are we talking on a daily, monthly or yearly accuracy ?
You say the system allows for chaos by being polymorphic surely that would require it to have learnt from a previous event in order to predict the outcome of a present event, but as chaos theory shows no 2 events can have the same outcome.
May I ask what line of work you are in now? you say you have spent the last 10years working on the maths behind market movements, what was the goal of this project ?
On the "frightening accuracy " what are we talking on a daily, monthly or yearly accuracy ?
You say the system allows for chaos by being polymorphic surely that would require it to have learnt from a previous event in order to predict the outcome of a present event, but as chaos theory shows no 2 events can have the same outcome.
Hi - Trendi
Thanks for the feedback it is indeed the confidence which I lack. As with everything in life the urge to tinker and improve is almost irresistible. I know the system can be improved and how but to be quite frank I am exhausted with the whole thing and now need to move from pen and paper trading to cash in the bank.
I already have a spread bet account so I am good to go. I have messed about with small bets on the S&P500. One of the main things I wanted from this post was the impetus to trade hopefully with some friendly advice. Posting "Assertions" as to market direction will make me focus on the task at hand.
I need to stop developing now, move away from my Fortran programming and make this a reality. And get some traders observations on wrong calls.
The ratio of wins to losses is a somewhat misleading indicator as it does not take into account the value of the loss or gain. I have found in back testing that reviewing my buy or sell every half hour results in about 150 pips per day net. Today so far it would be 101 net.
I desperately need to beat this mentality of working on improvements – ‘just one more thing’. The wife is desperate and rightly so for me to start. Hence the post.
I don't use stop losses as they appear to maximise your loss. If it moves strongly against a position I change the time resolution which then gives an opportune moment to reverse the trade.
I have deliberately not looked at or used any current market theorems as they are public they won't work to accuracy I require. So I have no idea what Market Matrix is.
Thanks for the feedback it is indeed the confidence which I lack. As with everything in life the urge to tinker and improve is almost irresistible. I know the system can be improved and how but to be quite frank I am exhausted with the whole thing and now need to move from pen and paper trading to cash in the bank.
I already have a spread bet account so I am good to go. I have messed about with small bets on the S&P500. One of the main things I wanted from this post was the impetus to trade hopefully with some friendly advice. Posting "Assertions" as to market direction will make me focus on the task at hand.
I need to stop developing now, move away from my Fortran programming and make this a reality. And get some traders observations on wrong calls.
The ratio of wins to losses is a somewhat misleading indicator as it does not take into account the value of the loss or gain. I have found in back testing that reviewing my buy or sell every half hour results in about 150 pips per day net. Today so far it would be 101 net.
I desperately need to beat this mentality of working on improvements – ‘just one more thing’. The wife is desperate and rightly so for me to start. Hence the post.
I don't use stop losses as they appear to maximise your loss. If it moves strongly against a position I change the time resolution which then gives an opportune moment to reverse the trade.
I have deliberately not looked at or used any current market theorems as they are public they won't work to accuracy I require. So I have no idea what Market Matrix is.
eatontrade
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dc2000 said:
Come on now - we all know that what is being described here is simply not possible....even if you could come up with "The Holy Grail" of trading systems that could accurately predict tops and bottoms how is it going to predict something like a US company taking over a UK company and paying cash for it resulting in a £10 billion cable transaction which is going to move the market, trip a load of stops and completely change sentiment for at least that trading day.
eatontrade
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Uphios said:
Not in any way questioning the merits of this trade - just interested in your reasons for going long here - if your would be willing to share them of course...
More acurately I suppose is that I expected a re-test of yesterdays low. I expect that low to more or less hold as the market comes to terms with having been overly generous to the dollar based on last weeks NFP. I further think that leading into BoE rate on Thursday the market will be more bullish £, even though the rates don't change. Of course this could easily all turn out to be BS so prepaired to drop it if looks wrong.
trendie
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eatontrade said:
Come on now - we all know that what is being described here is simply not possible....even if you could come up with "The Holy Grail" of trading systems that could accurately predict tops and bottoms how is it going to predict something like a US company taking over a UK company and paying cash for it resulting in a £10 billion cable transaction which is going to move the market, trip a load of stops and completely change sentiment for at least that trading day.
there have been many Holy Grail merchants, admittedly, on T2W, and they have been dealt with.
a: they tend to come on T2W espousing all manner of accuracy.
BUT when asked to real-time-post, they fail.
b: they generally fade away or are unmasked within 2 weeks.
c: some of the more clever ones, cry off citing being harassed by others, but offer a chat-room facility for the converted. ( trendsignal, etc ). this makes it easier to fool converted, once they are separated from voices of reason, into the controlled chat-room.
d: courses and software follow.
we must not be too harsh.
let Baz150 post his forecasts for the next 2 weeks.
if he is a Holy Grail vendor, he will be either hang or garner laurels by HIS OWN WORDS.
give the guy room.
eatontrade said:
Come on now - we all know that what is being described here is simply not possible....even if you could come up with "The Holy Grail" of trading systems that could accurately predict tops and bottoms how is it going to predict something like a US company taking over a UK company and paying cash for it resulting in a £10 billion cable transaction which is going to move the market, trip a load of stops and completely change sentiment for at least that trading day.
I think the point is that it wouldn't predict, rather react or self correct. So in that regard it's still a lagging indicator.
But I don't understand why spend 10 years developing it... to make it fully automated and then ask a day trader to hone it ?! One operates without emotion and just processes the bits and bytes... and the other is a chain smoking looney that runs around with his hair on fire most of the time. Or is that just me ?!
Mind you... 150 pips a day average would be nice.
trendie
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Kaffee said:I think the point is that it wouldn't predict, rather react or self correct. So in that regard it's still a lagging indicator.
But I don't understand why spend 10 years developing it... to make it fully automated and then ask a day trader to hone it ?! One operates without emotion and just processes the bits and bytes... and the other is a chain smoking looney that runs around with his hair on fire most of the time. Or is that just me ?!
Mind you... 150 pips a day average would be nice.
some of us are choccie-biscuit munching, pizza eating, bleary-eyed, hermits, you will one day realise they are too fat to get out of the study-room they spend all their time in.
