Journal Take 2 - Chart Patterns

[natureboy]

Right now i'm using 4.3% of available leverage for example - in EURUSD

 

[natureboy]

Above 0.9778 on AUDCHF calls for re-evaluation of the market, no more immediate shorting if that level exceeded. that's my white whale. My revenge trade. Its highly controlled revenge - like City Hunter (anybody seen that show?)
Its honestly a new trade, not an emotional revenge trade. I think AUDCHF is still headed lower, and i've got a setup that fits my point of view. But i'll be happier than normal if this particular trade works out. I let too much open profit get away from me on this one last week.

 

[natureboy]

EURUSD had room to go to get to that TL.. I'm not liking that aspect of this trade. Makes me think that either 1) EURUSD will fall quickly and substantially, or 2) The setups will be bunk, and more time is required to get out to that hourly TL

We'll see what the market has in mind

--

Volume at Dukascopy is not clearly high 2-3X recent highest, not yet anyhow.

 

[natureboy]

There are plenty of 'assumptions' in my personal trading.. Sure. The Chart Patterns themselves, however are Objective!

The lend themselves to automated strategies very well. The point out with leading indication good prices to enter trades and from which to manage the downside. In the right context, Chart Patterns are really indispensable - they give you information you don't find anywhere else!

 

[natureboy]

Currency meter closed (i use 15m data) Bearish for EURUSD, so now I have a full setup for my daytrading system. Scale in All Out, with All Stop Exit above the 1.2900 level (individual entries have closer stops).

Good Luck, i'll be trading not posting for a bit..

 

[natureboy]

One last thing, and then i'm out, If the EURUSD reacts up instead of down to that 1.2915, i'll be looking for a reversal from there, probably at either 410 or 620 EST, based on pattern & price

Risk with Care - Profit!

 

[natureboy]

Volume was higher on this last bar 350 EST, wait and see. EUR and USD lines are both tending sideways now on the meter. I hold bear view under 1.2897

 

[natureboy]

where's the reaction? news is out..

 

[natureboy]

this may be nada. Other news at 500, 800 EST

 

[natureboy]

oh, another neutral number. that explains the muted initial rxn

 

[natureboy]

If EURUSD doesn't start lower from here, it raises the odds that it will chop in an up slant into 500-600 areas, and that overhead likely resistance level.. and presumably drop from there. Needs to take out 1.2872 to show me its going down now

 

[natureboy]

It just occurred to me - anyone following my prices will have differences in their FX data! Oh man, i do apologize for no thinking of that sooner. I'm have two different prices usually - i use TradeStation FX for some analysis, and I use IB for trading. On TS - EURUSD must get below 1.2872, on IB the same pivot is 1.2874. I think TS is a bid chart and IB is last trade.. Make or break time here.. showing local support. Day trade system has me holding short under mentioned overhead price, so here it is, win or lose.

 

[natureboy]

Gah - stopped out of AUDCHF. The white whale strikes again!!


I'll get that whale some day!! ...seriously i need let that one go, my inner voice is speaking..

 

[natureboy]

there we go

 

[natureboy]

If we get a session long down trend - and i say IF - even though it looks likely - the ADR(5) has 98 pips as likely range, which targets 1.2800.. so that's my profit target area. It may poke through to 1.2785, which would possibly complete that 4hr M12 (from yesterday)

the market will do what it wants, i'll ride this current until it shows me its changing.

Peace and Profits -- bearish EURUSD under 1.2896, timing about 620 EST, so look for either correction or reversal then .. also news at 500 et al

Not aiming to be pedantic - just to contribute. need coffee..food. be back!

 

[natureboy]

500 confidence numbers, Italian bond sales, other releases. So far not as much downside volatility as i wanted to see.. Bearish trend ID at 1.2884 for EURUSD

 

[natureboy]

i have no core reason to chase AUDCHF.. that pattern is there, although there is no currency strength pattern that i see. If the rate can get below a support TL, say down to 0.9740, then i'll start selling it again.

 

[natureboy]

There is a bullish pattern on EURUSD 5m. It needs to be a failure for this trend trade to work out.

 

[natureboy]

next releases scheduled for 800 and 830.. in theory we're in the clear for a trend until around 600 EST if the EURUSD can get below 1.2862

- And i'll stop shorting above 1.2883

 

[natureboy]

Another possibility is that 220 was the high, 410 signaled the start of a correction, and 620 will end the correction, resume trend. Time only makes sense in retrospect, even then only to some extent.

Time doesn't give directions in price, it only indicates likely turns based on history. What price does still matters most.