natureboy
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Anyone read that Paul Tudor Jones interview (i'm sure many of you have), where he was being interviewed and some guy asked him 'how does it feel to have caught the all time low in bonds' and Jones said something like, 'well i'm the guy who caught the low after 5 attempts' True true.. and the poor guy was using Elliott Wave too.
natureboy
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markets are tricky! they can turn quickly, so the trader must also be able to lose his opinion, whenever required. I'll post my trade markers in a bit, I had two stop outs trying for long trades in EURNZD. Now on the move down, i'll allow the same. I'm risking a small portion of my account per trade, so even with 4 stop outs i plan on being down close to 1% - that's fine.
natureboy
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shew, i'm way off here... one minute i'm saying i'll short EURNZD below a certain price, next i'm using strength to get me in now... 
this isn't the way to trade kids.
maybe i'll get lucky, but careers aren't made on luck. Thank goodness my theoretical risk is small (assuming fills). Still, you want as little finagling as possible. Straight honest trading is the way - honest with yourself about what you're doing and why. Normally, i'd skip CPI. Today is what happens when i try to make something out of nothing.
Currently short EURNZD from 1.5657, Trend Determination a full 30 pips away 1.5687. My stops are hard stops of 11 pips, so less than ideal all around.
Also short EURUSD from 1.2844 with 1.2864 Bear Trend ID level..
Honestly, i'm not expecting much here. Maybe i'll be pleasantly surprised..More likely i'll lose money.
I've been up for 11hrs at this point, and that beer didn't really help quite as much as hoped. It was still nice though. Stop Exits are in, i'm taking a break (during which i still watch the 'ticker' on my phone)
this isn't the way to trade kids.maybe i'll get lucky, but careers aren't made on luck. Thank goodness my theoretical risk is small (assuming fills). Still, you want as little finagling as possible. Straight honest trading is the way - honest with yourself about what you're doing and why. Normally, i'd skip CPI. Today is what happens when i try to make something out of nothing.
Currently short EURNZD from 1.5657, Trend Determination a full 30 pips away 1.5687. My stops are hard stops of 11 pips, so less than ideal all around.
Also short EURUSD from 1.2844 with 1.2864 Bear Trend ID level..
Honestly, i'm not expecting much here. Maybe i'll be pleasantly surprised..More likely i'll lose money.
I've been up for 11hrs at this point, and that beer didn't really help quite as much as hoped. It was still nice though. Stop Exits are in, i'm taking a break (during which i still watch the 'ticker' on my phone)
natureboy
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This wasn't ideal trading, clearly. Even so, you can see from the examples how these Chart Patterns can objectively identify opportunity and trade-worthy prices.
Be back tomorrow with a clear mind and ready to manage risk and book profits.
Good trading people
Be back tomorrow with a clear mind and ready to manage risk and book profits.
Good trading people
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natureboy
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EURNZD ended up being a good short. EURUSD was fated to be a stop out.
The strength meter was giving me a rising EUR, which made the EURNZD short seem unlikely. A case of the price action in a given market being better to watch than a math massage.
The strength meter was giving me a rising EUR, which made the EURNZD short seem unlikely. A case of the price action in a given market being better to watch than a math massage.
natureboy
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Day 4 - Good Day Everyone
Today, the German Unemployment is likely to be a big deal for the Euro, lead to some volatile price action potentially.
I'm working with this situation on the hourly EURUSD. Upper TL resistance and a Fib cluster at 1.2915-1.2920
The idea is a move up to there, then a decline toward 1.2785-50 area
In a perfect world i'd know that the move is up, and the lower target i keep looking for is less likely to be hit (The Short Trade is No Good) if the rate gets above the former swing high at 1.2970.
Scalping/Day Trading on the way up is fine. Day trade on the way down.
Be back with timing
Today, the German Unemployment is likely to be a big deal for the Euro, lead to some volatile price action potentially.
I'm working with this situation on the hourly EURUSD. Upper TL resistance and a Fib cluster at 1.2915-1.2920
The idea is a move up to there, then a decline toward 1.2785-50 area
In a perfect world i'd know that the move is up, and the lower target i keep looking for is less likely to be hit (The Short Trade is No Good) if the rate gets above the former swing high at 1.2970.
Scalping/Day Trading on the way up is fine. Day trade on the way down.
Be back with timing
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natureboy
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time model has 220, 410 (with a condition), and 625 as important times today. What i'm going to read into this is a top near 220, a pause near 410, with possibly the end of trend at 625.
That is my discretionary take on a proprietary timing model, however there is sometimes value in the model, more often than not. Definitely like when it lines up with my trade concept/game plan.
That is my discretionary take on a proprietary timing model, however there is sometimes value in the model, more often than not. Definitely like when it lines up with my trade concept/game plan.
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natureboy
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There are a couple W10 patterns that have happened already, one in the time window for the news event. I'm waiting for the beloved currency meter that never leads one astray to show bearish EUR USD alignments, and then also for the 5m trend indicator i use to click over bearish..
whoa that just happened as I type.
Ok, i'm beginning to go short EURUSD now.
to show bearish EUR USD alignments, and then also for the 5m trend indicator i use to click over bearish..whoa that just happened as I type.
Ok, i'm beginning to go short EURUSD now.
natureboy
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I've been working with AUDCHF for a short trade to 0.9550 for the past week or more.. It may finally be starting this swing. I'm willing to risk a little money to find out.
Also, here are some patterns on EURUSD, essentially now working the current W10 against the 1.2900 psy level as the potential top.
Selling tops is tough to do accurately every time. 6/10 IMO is masterful. I'm probably more like 4/10. We'll see how this pans out.
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natureboy
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My order entry, stop loss placement, and sizing is all automated. So my style is semi-automated trading - most of the time.
A totally manual example from this week is USDCAD. There are cases where i'll do everything myself, although that's probably 30% of my trades anymore.
A totally manual example from this week is USDCAD. There are cases where i'll do everything myself, although that's probably 30% of my trades anymore.
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natureboy
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The EURUSD has yet to roll clearly bearish on the strength meter, so the odds do not yet favor shorts. I'm still shorting based on the timing, pattern, and trend indication (which in this market is 1.2903 short below) - If the rate gets above 1.2900, i'll get a slap on the wrist for getting in too early.
On the flipside, from a risk perspective, economic numbers/news can be dangerous to trade around. Some people specifically avoid these times. I find the volatility to be beneficial most of the time. If you trade with a huge position relative to your account, and you get caught in spike volatility (80 pips in 10 seconds, with a suddenly wider spread) you could lose - LOSE BIG TIME
That's partly why i scale in. It limits the risk initially and builds as the trade is working.. Of course, it requires a trend of some kind to be at its best (as my journal entries show in my trailing exit stop outs, etc)
On the flipside, from a risk perspective, economic numbers/news can be dangerous to trade around. Some people specifically avoid these times. I find the volatility to be beneficial most of the time. If you trade with a huge position relative to your account, and you get caught in spike volatility (80 pips in 10 seconds, with a suddenly wider spread) you could lose - LOSE BIG TIME
That's partly why i scale in. It limits the risk initially and builds as the trade is working.. Of course, it requires a trend of some kind to be at its best (as my journal entries show in my trailing exit stop outs, etc)
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