Da.DesiTrader's FX Journal using Chart Patterns

Da.DesiTrader said:
Long at 8160, s/l: 7990 (risk of 170), T/P: 8330 and more............. trigerred last night. Half position closed at 8238 (profit of 78 pips). Stop moved to b/e for the remaining half position.

Cheers
Click to expand...

Target 8330 hit through limit order.

Happy new year to everyone.
 
are you offering any courses was suppose to be for a diff post....friend of mine just had a lot of material printed so i was wondeirng if he is planning to offer courses......my apologies....nevertheless nice work with this post
 
Da.DesiTrader said:
Mate you kidding right. I am just a newbie. I am still trying to find a better way of entries.
Click to expand...
pipnator was worried about you being competition, he is going into the course vending business himself after blowing up his account again, when he says 'friend had a lot of material published' he is really referring to himself ;)
 
i didnt think the rumor was out already.....but thanks too puff dd for making it official.....
 
Hahah. Pipnator, I got criss/crosses on my charts. You're the man, I'll be first one to signup for your courses mate.
 
glad i can help....pls drop me line if you have any questions.....


also let me know when you order your new red ferrari :)))))))
 
Hi All,

Right back at it. See attached the AUD/JPY 4H and Daily charts. It's an ascending triangle with 89SMA plotted on chart.

5 Step methodology is below:

1. Identified a pattern in development on AUD/JPY. It's an ascending triangle / channel with possible breakout in either direction.

2. Recent S/R's also plotted on chart. Looks like 8755 region has been a major resistance, throwing price back below 89SMA quite a few times. This makes it a very good candidate for breakout. 8548 level was previous support, broke once around 16 April but quickly came back above and then held firmly around 27 April. Overall, the instrument is showing bearish character but could also be coiling for a massive breakout. Plus, the price has been making new highs around fib numbers from previous swing high/lows (circled).

3. On daily chart, the price breached 89MA in an uptrend four times. Each time, it was deeper / longer than before (circled), however the price then continued in the direction of the trend. Last time the breaches were around Jul, Sep, Nov 2009 and Feb 2010 (roughly 2 months) and we are in May now. That's bearish on higher T/F.

4. Price is in the region of 0 and 23.60% retracement from previous swing high(arnd 30 April) and swing low (arnd 19 April). RSI/MACD, none of them show divergence to indicate a move on either side (on my entry TF, however on Daily the MACD and RSI both show bearish divergence).

5. Regarding risk/reward. I would prefer to enter at the break of previous high/lowcandle. (ie, break above 8807 or below 8634 ). The stop loss to be above recent high candle (ie, 8807)

So short entry is 8625 with stop loss at 8810 (padded both by a few pips). Total risk is 185. The daily ATR is also around 118 for past few days. So good.

Target would be double of 185 at least 8255 (which is around 89SMA so not beyond imagination as another breach/break is quite possible). Will be looking to take 1/3rd off and b/e as soon as trade goes in blue around 100 pips.

Alternatively, go long at break of 8810, with similar risk/reward ratio and stop loss reasoning - Just reverse.

In summary:
Long at 8810, s/l: 8625 (risk of 185), 9180 T/P: and more.
Short at 8625 s/l: 8810 (risk of 185), 8255 T/P: and more.
 

Attachments

  • AUD_JPY_4H1.png
    AUD_JPY_4H1.png
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  • AUD_JPY_Daily2.png
    AUD_JPY_Daily2.png
    22.4 KB · Views: 142
analysis is very good, i like the way you've planned each trade too.

but want my advice? for moving averages use the 50/200 :D
 
Da.DesiTrader said:
Hi All,

Right back at it. See attached the AUD/JPY 4H and Daily charts. It's an ascending triangle with 89SMA plotted on chart.

5 Step methodology is below:

1. Identified a pattern in development on AUD/JPY. It's an ascending triangle / channel with possible breakout in either direction.

2. Recent S/R's also plotted on chart. Looks like 8755 region has been a major resistance, throwing price back below 89SMA quite a few times. This makes it a very good candidate for breakout. 8548 level was previous support, broke once around 16 April but quickly came back above and then held firmly around 27 April. Overall, the instrument is showing bearish character but could also be coiling for a massive breakout. Plus, the price has been making new highs around fib numbers from previous swing high/lows (circled).

3. On daily chart, the price breached 89MA in an uptrend four times. Each time, it was deeper / longer than before (circled), however the price then continued in the direction of the trend. Last time the breaches were around Jul, Sep, Nov 2009 and Feb 2010 (roughly 2 months) and we are in May now. That's bearish on higher T/F.

4. Price is in the region of 0 and 23.60% retracement from previous swing high(arnd 30 April) and swing low (arnd 19 April). RSI/MACD, none of them show divergence to indicate a move on either side (on my entry TF, however on Daily the MACD and RSI both show bearish divergence).

5. Regarding risk/reward. I would prefer to enter at the break of previous high/lowcandle. (ie, break above 8807 or below 8634 ). The stop loss to be above recent high candle (ie, 8807)

So short entry is 8625 with stop loss at 8810 (padded both by a few pips). Total risk is 185. The daily ATR is also around 118 for past few days. So good.

Target would be double of 185 at least 8255 (which is around 89SMA so not beyond imagination as another breach/break is quite possible). Will be looking to take 1/3rd off and b/e as soon as trade goes in blue around 100 pips.

Alternatively, go long at break of 8810, with similar risk/reward ratio and stop loss reasoning - Just reverse.

In summary:
Long at 8810, s/l: 8625 (risk of 185), 9180 T/P: and more.
Short at 8625 s/l: 8810 (risk of 185), 8255 T/P: and more.
Click to expand...

Short trigerred at 8625. Half profit taken at 8525 (100 pips) and stop moved to b/e at 8625.

Risk free trade for the remainder.

Post trade analysis: Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan.
 
Da.DesiTrader said:
Short trigerred at 8625. Half profit taken at 8525 (100 pips) and stop moved to b/e at 8625.

Risk free trade for the remainder.

Post trade analysis: Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan.
Click to expand...

Target hit. 370 pips profit in total. About time, wheels come off the aussie :)

Although money management-wise, I took half off at 100 pips, and remaining half made 270 pips.

Tell me why I stopped doing this?

Next setup to come shortly.

Cheers
 
Update.

Next setup not coming anytime shortly. Ranges on pairs are blown up. Swing trading pips which could be won/lost in days can now be done in hours.

No trading for me for at least a week or two, until things calm down. Ideally looking for a pullback in J and USD pairs back to 50 / 200SMA and then look for continuation price patterns (pattern + candlesticks).

Cheers
 
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