Journal Take 2 - Chart Patterns

[natureboy]

I've got my stop loss at 1.2884 on my position in EURUSD

 

[natureboy]

next times are 630 and 800.. I wish this was declining more into 620. I doubt that is going to have much effect on price action

 

[natureboy]

i would expect a retrace to go no higher than 1.2872, Bear Trend ID still high at 1.2880

 

[natureboy]

strength meter showing USD selling.. not good for trade. We've seen how the meter can lead us into a wonderland of ?? , so we can just use the Trend ID once the trade is on. The trailing exit is the trend ID - and its not optimized (though it probably could benefit from that).. At any rate we're coming into the time window. If i was scalping this i'd take profits in here

 

[natureboy]

5m price can be shown as in a bear channel, 620 EST coincides with a possible high in the channel, so all that happens may be a correction to trend, then resumption at 620.

Pattern wise, on the 1m I expect the rate to stay in this channel under 1.2868



Much higher than that and i'll get skeptical.. although a 2hr correction on a 1m chart could easily break the trend channel.. the 5m Trend ID (which is part of the tested system) is at 1.2877

 

[natureboy]

I'd probably be better off naming this journal something related to making a good risk adjusted return, making money, etc.. need more views! Comments, questions, insults, and compliments are appreciated.

 

[natureboy]

1.2850 psy levels just don't want to give it up this week..

Trailing/Bear ID at 1.2872. My style has me just now at break-even. I could be scalping the hell out of these moves... may need to look into that.

..then again, what am i talking about? psy-levels tend not to ever give it up easy, that's why we watch them

 

[natureboy]

based on the 1m channel, prior pattern and timing, i'd expect the rate to stay under 1.2860 area (+/- 2-5 pips)... if the trend is to continue around 620. If EURUSD is going into a larger correction, i may scratch on this trade. Ridiculous. I need to scalp these, FFS

Any one component of my method is not tradable, really. You must combine 3-5 variables, components to make the basic strategy structure, and combine with good money management --> can provide infinite possibilities for systems.

Chart Patterns are real, they can work, and you should have them in your tool kit!

 

[natureboy]

1.2869 on trend ID

 

[natureboy]

i'm going to need to see some downside volatility pick up and a break of 1.2844 lows to think the trend is going from here.. Otherwise, we've entered a corrective phase that should last to around 8am EST

 

[natureboy]

ungh.. prior support on the hourly. for the more cautious, this could be a good place to take profits.. a little late in fact

 

[natureboy]

stopped out breakeven. didn't see that coming

 

[natureboy]

To correctly ID a 50 pip swing and not make any money on it.. that's just no fun. No sir.

 

[natureboy]

I need to have my scale in method more aggressive earlier i think. it builds positions asymmetrically, which used to work well, now its less than ideal. Its not just this trade either. Several trades now, same thing. I'll be at profit from my earliest entries, and then more entries occur later in the trend, which lowers the average price of my position too much, and i end up getting out like this instead of being able to comfortably hold. Need to retool my automation..

 

[natureboy]

So my game plan from here is to look to start going short again near 800, depending on price and strength near then. Take 2!

 

[natureboy]

This is what i'm saying about time targets. They don't tell you anything BUT time.. 620 was great in retrospect for a low.. I sure didn't know such a deep 62% as of now retracement was about to happen

 

[natureboy]

2m Trend ID is currently bullish, will go bearish below 1.2861

 

[natureboy]

Here's the first trade.

 

[natureboy]

Currency Strength is pretty potent Long EURUSD. That's one component of my day system.. that lags. I am supposed to wait for it to confirm. So that's what i'll do..

Here you can see two W patterns on this EURUSD 1m - there is the first W10, which retraced shallow (failure), however the second W10 has exceeded the 62% retracement - typically showing larger price push downward. This pattern may not coincide with the absolute high, however does show some evidence for downtrend resumption.

 

[natureboy]

13 Tick 50-200 SMA crossing bearish.. Strength still very bullish. USD Durable Goods at 830