Journal Take 2 - Chart Patterns

[natureboy]

Express Yourself - Charles Wright - YouTube

 

[natureboy]

1.6175 on the GBPUSD bullish determination

 

[natureboy]

AUDCHF may be due for a drop too. I've made money and gotten chopped up selling this one recently. All learning.. the 4hr looks like a resistance TL from 9/14 - 9/23 is present. if momentum clicks down, i'll probably start selling on this one, below a clear support TL on hourly.. pictures to follow

 

[natureboy]

real close to losing my bullishness on GBPUSD.. fast deep retracement from the 1.6200 psy level. lets see if it can recover

 

[natureboy]

My directional indicator just closed bearish. Could be a whipsaw... I'm not buying trading this pair long anymore.. now looking for a break of 1.6148 for a possible short. The 5m trend setting i'm using in my directional indicator could be too tight - its possible. We trade price, so whatever price does is most important. Shorting below that mentioned level for a failed M7, if the rate gets down there.

 

[natureboy]

Basically working two trendlines, the resistance with the support broken to confirm. If i have a full setup with timing etc at resistance i'll try to nail the top. If not, i'll wait for the break of the support TL.

Be back with more on this one. This is my white whale..

 

[natureboy]

Yeah those trend indicator settings may have been too tight on GBPUSD. I need to come up with a real algorithm relating the settings to volatility.. this happens too often. My trend tool is on the whipsaw i think.. Turning long entries back on over here, using a HTF (10m instead of 5m) for Trend ID

 

[natureboy]

10m trend ID gives a still bullish reading, with 1.6161 as the Bullish Above level. My bad for not having these settings figured out first. Kinda went for this one half-cocked. My fault, not my buddy's. Neither one of us are oracles. Damn that'd be nice though! Real psychic abilities - i'd want to 1) make money and 2) change the world

 

[natureboy]

Back on the EURUSD, still looking for a decline to 1.2750, then a renewed move up of some kind.

EUR news at 8am est, so in the economic release time window. Down momentum in EURUSD possibly confirmed in my way of trading at 645, be back with that.

--

GBPUSD - still working the long trade, have 65k long from 1.6187, see how this goes.

 

[natureboy]

Cable taking its time with 1.6200.. 10m trend ID at 1.6165. USD being bought basis the currency meter i use.. i'm not putting on anymore on GBPUSD for now..

My daytrading system has me selling EURUSD now. Have timing at 730 and 1000 EST, and had it back at 620. Pattern on 1m only, not seeing anything on other timeframes..



Again i feel weird about this one.. I think i need to eat.

 

[natureboy]

My stop loss on GBPUSD is at 1.6173. If stopped out, i'm done with that setup.

 

[natureboy]

...unless GBPUSD breaks down. Currency strength has GBP in a position to reverse; has yet to turn..

 

[natureboy]

EURUSD needs to break through another Psy Level at 1.2850, also recent support, for a downtrend.. Trend ID at 1.2872 for a bear move in EURUSD. My rules have me selling, so i'm selling.

Win some, lose some.

 

[natureboy]

And on GBPUSD, IF it manages higher somehow against decreasing odds, i'm out at the min target 1.6225 area.. i'm thinking that to be unlikely at this point, but i'm wrong every week more than once.

 

[natureboy]

Stopped out on GBPUSD. Aish - serves me right for trading on a tip!

Good thing i didn't use big size.... or need that be common sense not to use big size in that kind of situation.. hmm

 

[natureboy]

The German CPI numbers at 800 EST could shake things up a bit .. CPI generally isn't one on my hot list, we'll take it as it comes today.. Short on EURUSD from 1.2862, holding for that elusive 1.2750 area..

Also, the Bear Trend ID is shorting under 1.2874

 

[natureboy]

Big Picture this is what I'm looking at:



There is an M12 Continuation Pattern on the 4hr. Completion is likely somewhere in the 1.2785 - 1.2750 area. Then... well, continuation. We're expecting more Bullish Price Action on this pair from those levels. However, we'll trade price! You must flow with the market.

Yesterday I told a friend that trading can be tough for us academics, admitting we're wrong.. Its important to be right! When we are researching our project we feel like its our project, we own this thing! In the markets, we are like an ant trying to windsurf. The market is bigger than us, we must work with it, not fight it... and any of us out here certainly don't own it.

 

[natureboy]

go time

 

[natureboy]

1.2867 on the Bear Trend determination on EURUSD.. Currency meter has EUR being bought, not good for the trade.. if price drops, the meter will catch up. It was reading bearish initially, so that's what i use, then the trend determination.

 

[natureboy]

well those numbers are like no numbers at all.. we'll see what the market thinks..